UFC Newark has a great headliner and a thin undercard, like most Fight Night cards. Colby Covington's shtick is hackneyed but effective. Everyone would love to see Robbie Lawler take his head off. We'll have to dig deep to fill out a lineup with so many question marks in the other fights.

 

 Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITDBreakDown
Main Event
Colby Covington vs Robbie Lawler
9000/7200
-
Stackability: Safe
-220/ +200
+302/+256
This is a solid price for Covington given his wrestling skill set and deep gas tank. People love to bet on the puncher and Lawler's been a good one, so that's what's at play. Unless Covington gets monumentally sloppy he should cruise here. I love Lawler, but the division has passed him by.
        
Expensive
Nasrat Haqparast9100Joaquim SilvaSafe-250+175Haq is an up and comer with tight striking and great speed. He can deliver some power, as well. There should be plenty of openings against the slugging Silva.
Jim Miller8900Clay GuidaSomewhat-Safe-145+162Guida did not look great against BJ Penn. Miller is resurgent and dangerous on the mat.
Scott Holtzman9300Dong Hyun MaSomewhat-Safe-430+100It's going to be hard for Holtzman to hit value with his probable pace.
Claudio Silva9400Cole WilliamsModerate-495+590Silva is a big favorite getting a late notice opponent. It's a big price to pay off for someone prone to come from behind win.
        
Mid-Range
Trevin Giles8500Gerald MeerschaertSomewhat-Safe-160+150Giles dropped a fight to Zak Cummings like a lot of prospects do. He's still talented and dangerous. Meerschaert is another crafty vet so Giles needs to be on point.
Antonina Shevchenko8600Lucie PudilovaSomewhat-Safe-120+475The UFC is working hard to get the other Shevchenko a win. Pudilova is a tailor made striking opponent for the accomplished kick-boxer.
Salim Touahri8300Mickey GallSomewhat-Safe-115+275This would be a bet that Gall just isn't a very good fighter.
Mara Romero Borella8700Lauren MurphySomewhat-Safe-185+460Romero Borella has world class judo, she just needs to lean on it. Murphy's a game opponent but not all that dangerous.
Darko Stosic8400Kennedy NzechukwuModerate-110+145Stosic is a hard hitter with a cinder block for a head. Nzechukwu is missing that killer instinct and letting Darko hang around could be trouble.
Jordan Espinosa8200Matt SchnellSomewhat-Risky-120+385Espinosa finally managed his gas tank for three rounds. His wrestling can play well if that continues.
Matt Schnell8000Jordan EspinosaSomewhat-Risky+110+290Schnell gets underrated for losing to some solid names in the UFC. He showed last fight he's dangerous in finishing Luis Smolka.
Hannah Goldy8800Miranda GrangerRisky-125+580She's the favorite and a more physically imposing fighter.
        
Pay-Downs
Kennedy Nzechukwu7800Darko StosicModerate+100+230The odds here are a head scratcher. Kennedy should easily be favored, IMO.
Joaquim Silva7100Nasrat HaqparastModerate+230+590This line also feels disrespectful. Silva's done more in MMA than Haqparast. When prospects take steps up they often stumble.
Clay Guida7300Jim MillerModerate+135+950If Miller can't pull ahead early, Guida's pace and unorthodox style could take over the fight.
Gerald Meerschaert7700Trevin GilesSomewhat-Risky+150+250Greasy Gerald could claim another raw victim with his bonkers fighting style.
Lucie Pudilova7600Antonina ShevchenkoSomewhat-Risky+110+955Pudilova's been really close in all of her losses. She could win a decision if it's a good match up.
Miranda Granger7400Hannah GoldyRisky+115+250The ITD line Granger is really intruiging for the DK price.
Cole Williams6800Claudio SilvaRisky+430+885Silva keeps pulling rabbits out of his hat but that magic runs out at some point. Williams is a journeyman making his UFC debut on a week's notice and no one will want to play him. It could be an amazing leverage spot.
Dong Hyun Ma6900Scott HoltzmanRisky+380+965The Maestro has fallen on hard times. He's not the easiest out and should see the start of the third if not the final bell, making him an possible cash pay down.

 

 

Cash Plays: 

(Sample lineup)

 

GPP Plays: 

(Sample lineup)

 

Favorite Bets: Covington -225, Nzechukwu +110, Shevchenko -125, Williams +400

 

Favorite Props: Silva ITD +590, Nzechukwu ITD +230

 

Live Dogs: Nzechukwu, J. Silva, Guida, Meerschaert, Williams

 

Stats & Picks:

Colby CovingtonvsRobbie Lawler
$9,000DFS Salary$7,200
Record: 14-1-0RecordRecord: 28-13-0 (1 NC)
2 KO/TKO (14%)Knockouts20 KO/TKO (71%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (36%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (4%)
-220Vegas Odds+200
8/10Lineup Pool2/10

 

Jim MillervsClay Guida
$8,900DFS Salary$7,300
Record: 30-13-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 35-15-0
4 KO/TKO (13%)Knockouts7 KO/TKO (20%)
16 SUBMISSIONS (53%)Subs13 SUBMISSIONS (37%)
-145Vegas Odds+135
7/10Lineup Pool1/10

 

Joaquim SilvavsNasrat Haqparast
$7,100DFS Salary$9,100
Record: 11-2-0RecordRecord: 10-2-0
6 KO/TKO (55%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (80%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (27%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
+230Vegas Odds-250
5/10Lineup Pool3/10

 

Trevin GilesvsGerald Meerschaert
$8,500DFS Salary$7,700
Record: 11-1-0RecordRecord: 28-11-0
5 KO/TKO (45%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (21%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (45%)Subs20 SUBMISSIONS (71%)
-160Vegas Odds+150
6/10Lineup Pool2/10

 

Scott HoltzmanvsDong Hyun Ma
$9,300DFS Salary$6,900
Record: 12-3-0RecordRecord: 16-9-3
4 KO/TKO (33%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (38%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (17%)Subs6 SUBMISSIONS (38%)
-430Vegas Odds+380
4/10Lineup Pool3/10

 

Darko StosicvsKennedy Nzechukwu
$8,400DFS Salary$7,800
Record: 13-2-0RecordRecord: 6-1-0
8 KO/TKO (62%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (67%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (8%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
-110Vegas Odds+100
4/10Lineup Pool5/10

 

Mickey GallvsSalim Touahri
$7,900DFS Salary$8,300
Record: 5-2-0RecordRecord: 10-3-0
0 KO/TKO (0%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (60%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (100%)Subs2 SUBMISSIONS (20%)
+105Vegas Odds-115
1/10Lineup Pool4/10

 

Antonina ShevchenkovsLucie Pudilova
$8,600DFS Salary$7,600
Record: 7-1-0RecordRecord: 8-4-0
2 KO/TKO (29%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (25%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs2 SUBMISSIONS (25%)
-120Vegas Odds+110
5/10Lineup Pool3/10

 

Jordan EspinosavsMatt Schnell
$8,200DFS Salary$8,000
Record: 14-5-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 13-4-0
2 KO/TKO (14%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (15%)
7 SUBMISSIONS (50%)Subs7 SUBMISSIONS (54%)
-120Vegas Odds+110
4/10Lineup Pool5/10

 

Lauren MurphyvsMara Romero Borella
$7,500DFS Salary$8,700
Record: 10-4-0RecordRecord: 12-5-0 (2 NC)
7 KO/TKO (70%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (25%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs4 SUBMISSIONS (33%)
+170Vegas Odds-185
2/10Lineup Pool5/10

 

Claudio SilvavsCole Williams
$9,400DFS Salary$6,800
Record: 13-1-0RecordRecord: 11-1-0
2 KO/TKO (15%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (36%)
8 SUBMISSIONS (62%)Subs4 SUBMISSIONS (36%)
-495Vegas Odds+430
5/10Lineup Pool2/10

 

Miranda GrangervsHannah Goldy
$7,400DFS Salary$8,800
Record: 6-0-0RecordRecord: 5-0-0
1 KO/TKO (25%)Knockouts0 KO/TKO (0%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (75%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
+115Vegas Odds-125
2/10Lineup Pool3/10