UFC Newark has a great headliner and a thin undercard, like most Fight Night cards. Colby Covington's shtick is hackneyed but effective. Everyone would love to see Robbie Lawler take his head off. We'll have to dig deep to fill out a lineup with so many question marks in the other fights.
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | BreakDown | |
Main Event | Colby Covington vs Robbie Lawler | 9000/7200 | - | Stackability: Safe | -220/ +200 | +302/+256 | This is a solid price for Covington given his wrestling skill set and deep gas tank. People love to bet on the puncher and Lawler's been a good one, so that's what's at play. Unless Covington gets monumentally sloppy he should cruise here. I love Lawler, but the division has passed him by. |
Expensive | Nasrat Haqparast | 9100 | Joaquim Silva | Safe | -250 | +175 | Haq is an up and comer with tight striking and great speed. He can deliver some power, as well. There should be plenty of openings against the slugging Silva. |
Jim Miller | 8900 | Clay Guida | Somewhat-Safe | -145 | +162 | Guida did not look great against BJ Penn. Miller is resurgent and dangerous on the mat. | |
Scott Holtzman | 9300 | Dong Hyun Ma | Somewhat-Safe | -430 | +100 | It's going to be hard for Holtzman to hit value with his probable pace. | |
Claudio Silva | 9400 | Cole Williams | Moderate | -495 | +590 | Silva is a big favorite getting a late notice opponent. It's a big price to pay off for someone prone to come from behind win. | |
Mid-Range | Trevin Giles | 8500 | Gerald Meerschaert | Somewhat-Safe | -160 | +150 | Giles dropped a fight to Zak Cummings like a lot of prospects do. He's still talented and dangerous. Meerschaert is another crafty vet so Giles needs to be on point. |
Antonina Shevchenko | 8600 | Lucie Pudilova | Somewhat-Safe | -120 | +475 | The UFC is working hard to get the other Shevchenko a win. Pudilova is a tailor made striking opponent for the accomplished kick-boxer. | |
Salim Touahri | 8300 | Mickey Gall | Somewhat-Safe | -115 | +275 | This would be a bet that Gall just isn't a very good fighter. | |
Mara Romero Borella | 8700 | Lauren Murphy | Somewhat-Safe | -185 | +460 | Romero Borella has world class judo, she just needs to lean on it. Murphy's a game opponent but not all that dangerous. | |
Darko Stosic | 8400 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | Moderate | -110 | +145 | Stosic is a hard hitter with a cinder block for a head. Nzechukwu is missing that killer instinct and letting Darko hang around could be trouble. | |
Jordan Espinosa | 8200 | Matt Schnell | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | +385 | Espinosa finally managed his gas tank for three rounds. His wrestling can play well if that continues. | |
Matt Schnell | 8000 | Jordan Espinosa | Somewhat-Risky | +110 | +290 | Schnell gets underrated for losing to some solid names in the UFC. He showed last fight he's dangerous in finishing Luis Smolka. | |
Hannah Goldy | 8800 | Miranda Granger | Risky | -125 | +580 | She's the favorite and a more physically imposing fighter. | |
Pay-Downs | Kennedy Nzechukwu | 7800 | Darko Stosic | Moderate | +100 | +230 | The odds here are a head scratcher. Kennedy should easily be favored, IMO. |
Joaquim Silva | 7100 | Nasrat Haqparast | Moderate | +230 | +590 | This line also feels disrespectful. Silva's done more in MMA than Haqparast. When prospects take steps up they often stumble. | |
Clay Guida | 7300 | Jim Miller | Moderate | +135 | +950 | If Miller can't pull ahead early, Guida's pace and unorthodox style could take over the fight. | |
Gerald Meerschaert | 7700 | Trevin Giles | Somewhat-Risky | +150 | +250 | Greasy Gerald could claim another raw victim with his bonkers fighting style. | |
Lucie Pudilova | 7600 | Antonina Shevchenko | Somewhat-Risky | +110 | +955 | Pudilova's been really close in all of her losses. She could win a decision if it's a good match up. | |
Miranda Granger | 7400 | Hannah Goldy | Risky | +115 | +250 | The ITD line Granger is really intruiging for the DK price. | |
Cole Williams | 6800 | Claudio Silva | Risky | +430 | +885 | Silva keeps pulling rabbits out of his hat but that magic runs out at some point. Williams is a journeyman making his UFC debut on a week's notice and no one will want to play him. It could be an amazing leverage spot. | |
Dong Hyun Ma | 6900 | Scott Holtzman | Risky | +380 | +965 | The Maestro has fallen on hard times. He's not the easiest out and should see the start of the third if not the final bell, making him an possible cash pay down. |
Cash Plays:
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays:
(Sample lineup)
Favorite Bets: Covington -225, Nzechukwu +110, Shevchenko -125, Williams +400
Favorite Props: Silva ITD +590, Nzechukwu ITD +230
Live Dogs: Nzechukwu, J. Silva, Guida, Meerschaert, Williams
Stats & Picks:
Colby Covington | vs | Robbie Lawler |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 14-1-0 | Record | Record: 28-13-0 (1 NC) |
2 KO/TKO (14%) | Knockouts | 20 KO/TKO (71%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (36%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (4%) |
-220 | Vegas Odds | +200 |
8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Jim Miller | vs | Clay Guida |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 30-13-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 35-15-0 |
4 KO/TKO (13%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (20%) |
16 SUBMISSIONS (53%) | Subs | 13 SUBMISSIONS (37%) |
-145 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
Joaquim Silva | vs | Nasrat Haqparast |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
6 KO/TKO (55%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (80%) |
3 SUBMISSIONS (27%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
+230 | Vegas Odds | -250 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Trevin Giles | vs | Gerald Meerschaert |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
Record: 11-1-0 | Record | Record: 28-11-0 |
5 KO/TKO (45%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (21%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (45%) | Subs | 20 SUBMISSIONS (71%) |
-160 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Scott Holtzman | vs | Dong Hyun Ma |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 12-3-0 | Record | Record: 16-9-3 |
4 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (38%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (17%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (38%) |
-430 | Vegas Odds | +380 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Darko Stosic | vs | Kennedy Nzechukwu |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
Record: 13-2-0 | Record | Record: 6-1-0 |
8 KO/TKO (62%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (67%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
-110 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Mickey Gall | vs | Salim Touahri |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
Record: 5-2-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 |
0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (60%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (100%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (20%) |
+105 | Vegas Odds | -115 |
1/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Antonina Shevchenko | vs | Lucie Pudilova |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 7-1-0 | Record | Record: 8-4-0 |
2 KO/TKO (29%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (25%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (25%) |
-120 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Jordan Espinosa | vs | Matt Schnell |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
Record: 14-5-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 13-4-0 |
2 KO/TKO (14%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (15%) |
7 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (54%) |
-120 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Lauren Murphy | vs | Mara Romero Borella |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
Record: 10-4-0 | Record | Record: 12-5-0 (2 NC) |
7 KO/TKO (70%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (25%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
+170 | Vegas Odds | -185 |
2/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Claudio Silva | vs | Cole Williams |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
Record: 13-1-0 | Record | Record: 11-1-0 |
2 KO/TKO (15%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (36%) |
8 SUBMISSIONS (62%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (36%) |
-495 | Vegas Odds | +430 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Miranda Granger | vs | Hannah Goldy |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
Record: 6-0-0 | Record | Record: 5-0-0 |
1 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
3 SUBMISSIONS (75%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
+115 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
2/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |