On tap this week for MLB Advanced Analytics is an update to wOBA-xwOBA. Weighted On-base Average is a stat that places weights At-Bat results progressively. It’s a better indicator of a player's skills than OBP or AVG. We enhance that even further by examining wOBA compared to xwOBA. It removes the luck of where a ball was hit and accounts for how well it was hit, rather. Statcast makes it easy by selecting the desired fields to get wOBA-xwOBA.

Here are the top fifteen in ascending order. 

  • The top fifteen features many big bats. Smoak, both J. Martinez’s, and Ozuna are particularly interesting. Their already high wOBA could be even higher.

  • Guys like Alonso, Aguilar, and Schwaber have an approach with the goal of putting the ball in the air. That can result in less “luck.”

  • Danny Jansen has been slowly rebounding. Hopefully, he continues to get a handle on catching a major league staff and the results at the plate improve.

  • Khris Davis isn’t having the year most hoped. Nagging injuries have sapped some of his power and the ball isn’t going quite over the fence. If his health returns, he could be extremely helpful in the second half.

  • His teammate, Matt Olson has exceeded most people’s expectations after hamate bone surgery. Similarly to Davis, if that grip continues to get stronger he could continue to rebound.

 

We can look at the opposite end of the spectrum and see who’s had luckier results so far. Just switch the sort order to descending.

  • We’ve seen Tatis here before. His approach is a bit all-or-nothing. The results are there, though. As long as the counting stats continue I wouldn’t worry.

  • Rockies have also factored heavily in this section. The altitude and ballpark parameters continue to be what’s at play.

  • Kris Bryant has slowed down of late. He’s aggressive in his approach so streakiness is likely to be a part of his profile the rest of the way.

  • Similarly, the other shoe has dropped for guys like Narvaez, Hoskins, and Peralta.

 

The best way to apply this is for a hitter you may be getting impatient with and are looking for a confidence boost to hold. It can also help decide between players that line up well with a narrative but doesn’t have recent success in a DFS setting. Like any stat, it has its place and shouldn’t be overestimated. Make it another tool in your fantasy bag.