It’s International Fight Week in Las Vegas for UFC 239. The UFC goes all out here. We’ve got two belts on the line from the arguably greatest male and female fighters ever. The card is stocked with intriguing fights. The salaries are a bit odd this week with no one between $7,900 and $8,300. That makes lineup construction a challenge.

 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

BreakDown

 

Main Event

Jon Jones vs Thiago Santos

9600/6600

-

Stackability: Safe

-750/ 525

-212/611

Jon Jones is the best MMA fighter ever at minimizing risk. He controls space better than anyone and utilizes his range doing it. Legends do tend to fall in MMA but I can't see Santos being Jones first loss beyond a punchers chance. Santos will be a challenge and is fine for a cash game stack.

 
 
         
 

Amanda Nunes

9100

Holly Holm

Safe

-410

-110

Nunes can beat you in so many ways. Holm is a great MMA boxer but relies on counterpunching. That's trouble against someone that brings as much pressure as Nunes. Add another legends scalp to Nunes' wall.

 

Edmen Shahbazyan

9400

Jack Marshman

Safe

-650

-132

Normally I try to exercise caution with prospects that become big favorites. I'll forgo that with Shahbaz here. His two previous wins were against better fighters than Marshman. Edmen is a great bet for an early finish.

 

Ismail Naurdiev

9300

Chance Rencountre

Somewhat-Safe

-550

+140

Naurdiev burst onto the UFC scene as a late replacement who defeated a very good Michel Prazeres. Dominated, in fact. The hype train has perhaps gotten too much steam but he's not your normal newcomer at 18-2. As long as his gas tank holds up he should win a competitive bout.

 

Arnold Allen

9000

Gilbert Melendez

Somewhat-Safe

-325

+312

Another veteran who's past his prime gets offered to a prospect by the UFC. Melendez is tough and can still presumably wrestle, which makes a big DK score a tall order for Allen here. Allen should still have little trouble getting a decision win.

 

Marlon Vera

9500

Nohelin Hernandez

Moderate

-400

-160

Vera has talent but the UFC gave him too much too soon at the end of 2017. They hit the reset button and his confidence has returned. He's getting a late replacement but not a layup in Hernandez. This should be a fun fight with plenty of back and forth.

 

Michael Chiesa

9200

Diego Sanchez

Somewhat-Risky

-360

-117

Chiesa has very solid BJJ, with 11 of his 15 wins via submission. The move up in weight seems to suit him, too. Chiesa will look to fight smart and grapple his way to a win. Sanchez has yet to be submitted in 40 pro fights, though.

 
         

Mid-Range

Julia Avila

8600

Pannie Kianzad

Safe

-200

+190

A great addition to the division, Avila is a one-woman wrecking crew. Her aggression is hard for most fighters to handle. She's also incredibly well-rounded. Kianzad is a veteran and a test, but one Avila should pass without much struggle.

 

Claudia Gadelha

8800

Randa Markos

Moderate

-240

+412

Gadelha has seen her star fall some of late. She was the "it" contender for a while. She's moved camps (again) and is looking to rebound from repeated losses to the division's best. Her wrestling is good and she's stronger than most opponents. That could be enough against the snake-bit Markos.

 

Luke Rockhold

8400

Jan Blachowicz

Moderate

-225

-110

It's easy to forget how good Rockhold is. He's only fought three times in three years. That was at the top of the 185 lb. division, though. A move to 205 should help his chin. Rockhold does everything a little better the Blachowicz and could score a rare KO of the Pole.

 

Song Yadong

8500

Alejandro Perez

Somewhat-Risky

-210

+214

Song is a young fighter but in a good camp. He's strong and talented. Perez is the most polished fighter he's faced to date. There can be growing pains with prospects. His speed advantage should allow him to be the aggressor and deserving favorite.

 

Ben Askren

 

Jorge Masvidal

Risky

-220

+402

The gameplan for Askren is simple: blanket your opponent with world class wrestling. That tends to work up to a point. Robbie Lawler showed you can hit Askren with near impunity but gassed. Askren is playing with fire against Masvidal here. Wrestling scores, though.

 
         

Pay-Downs

Jorge Masvidal

7500

Ben Askren

Somewhat-Risky

+180

+270

Masvidal will be takedown at points in this fight. He's a great grappler with a solid get up game. To win he needs to make the most of his time on the feet with Askren. "Gambred" seems pretty motivated with all the talking Askren's done.

 

Jan Blachowicz

7800

Luke Rockhold

Somewhat-Risky

+185

+455

Blachowicz has two paths to victory. He could test Rockhold's cracking chin. Jan throws straight punches in favor of power shots so that's not as likely. He could be the stronger man with Rockhold coming up a weight and grappler to victory.

 

Diego Sanchez

7000

Michael Chiesa

Somewhat-Risky

+300

+850

This version of Sanchez isn't likely to be better at much then Chiesa. Much besides determination, that is. Sanchez is a legitimate psycho. Chiesa's quit in fights before. It's possible that Sanchez takes the fight to place Chiesa doesn't want to go.

 

Alejandro Perez

7700

Song Yadong

Somewhat-Risky

+175

+960

Perez is great at winning rounds and decisions. He gets an opponent in Song, that while talented, is a bit green. A decision win gets pretty close to value at his price.

 

Nohelin Hernandez

6700

Marlon Vera

Risky

+325

+680

Hernandez is a late replacement but was two weeks out from an LFA title fight. He'll be in shape and sharp. He fights out of a good camp and has a 2" reach advantage on Vera. We've seen Vera lose focus before.

 

Randa Markos

7400

Claudia Gadelha

Risky

+200

+850

Gadelha has had some trouble with women that can wrestle. Markos can certainly do that. She's a deserving dog, but a live one. Her losses to Ansaroff and Grasso look better in hindsight, as both have shined lately.

 

Gilbert Melendez

7200

Arnold Allen

High Risk

+265

+620

Allen has enjoyed being a big fish in a small pond in the UK. His only real test was Markwan Amirkhani and that was an SD-win. Melendez is a born fighter and could use his veteran savvy to steal a close fight.

 

 

Example Lineups

Cash Plays: Jones/Santos stack, Nunes, Shahbazayan, Perez

(Sample lineup)

GPP Plays: Avila, Naurdiev, Masvidal, Gadelha, Sanchez, Yadong

(Sample lineup)

 

Top Bets

Favorite Bets: Avila -200, Masvidal +180, Sanchez +300, 

Favorite Props: Nunes ITD -110, Shahbazyan ITD -132

Live Dogs: Masvidal, Sanchez, Blachowicz, Perez, Markos

 

Stats & Picks

Jon JonesvsThiago Santos
$9,600DFS Salary$6,600
Record: 24-1-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 21-6-0
10 KO/TKO (42%)Knockouts15 KO/TKO (71%)
6 SUBMISSIONS (25%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (5%)
-750Vegas Odds+525
6/10Lineup Pool2/10

 

Amanda NunesvsHolly Holm
$9,100DFS Salary$7,100
Record: 17-4-0RecordRecord: 12-4-0
12 KO/TKO (71%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (67%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (18%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
-410Vegas Odds+330
7/10Lineup Pool2/10

 

Jorge MasvidalvsBen Askren
$7,500DFS Salary$8,700
Record: 33-13-0RecordRecord: 19-0-0 (1 NC)
14 KO/TKO (42%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (32%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (6%)Subs6 SUBMISSIONS (32%)
+180Vegas Odds-220
5/10Lineup Pool4/10

 

Jan BlachowiczvsLuke Rockhold
$7,800DFS Salary$8,400
Record: 23-8-0RecordRecord: 16-4-0
5 KO/TKO (22%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (38%)
9 SUBMISSIONS (39%)Subs8 SUBMISSIONS (50%)
+185Vegas Odds-225
3/10Lineup Pool5/10

 

Diego SanchezvsMichael Chiesa
$7,000DFS Salary$9,200
Record: 31-11-0RecordRecord: 15-4-0
10 KO/TKO (34%)Knockouts0 KO/TKO (0%)
6 SUBMISSIONS (21%)Subs11 SUBMISSIONS (73%)
+300Vegas Odds-360
4/10Lineup Pool3/10

 

Gilbert MelendezvsArnold Allen
$7,200DFS Salary$9,000
Record: 22-7-0RecordRecord: 14-1-0
12 KO/TKO (55%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (36%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs4 SUBMISSIONS (29%)
+265Vegas Odds-325
2/10Lineup Pool5/10

 

Marlon VeravsNohelin Hernandez
$9,500DFS Salary$6,700
Record: 13-5-1RecordRecord: 10-2-0
4 KO/TKO (31%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (33%)
7 SUBMISSIONS (54%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
-400Vegas Odds+325
4/10Lineup Pool3/10

 

Claudia GadelhavsRanda Markos
$8,800DFS Salary$7,400
Record: 16-4-0RecordRecord: 9-7-1
2 KO/TKO (13%)Knockouts0 KO/TKO (0%)
7 SUBMISSIONS (44%)Subs4 SUBMISSIONS (44%)
-240Vegas Odds+200
5/10Lineup Pool3/10

 

Alejandro PerezvsSong Yadong
$7,700DFS Salary$8,500
Record: 22-7-1RecordRecord: 14-4-0 (1 NC)
9 KO/TKO (43%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (31%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (24%)Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (23%)
+175Vegas Odds-210
4/10Lineup Pool4/10

 

Edmen ShahbazyanvsJack Marshman
$9,400DFS Salary$6,800
Record: 9-0-0RecordRecord: 23-8-0
8 KO/TKO (89%)Knockouts13 KO/TKO (57%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs5 SUBMISSIONS (22%)
-650Vegas Odds+475
9/10Lineup Pool1/10

 

Ismail NaurdievvsChance Rencountre
$9,300DFS Salary$6,900
Record: 18-2-0RecordRecord: 13-3-0
11 KO/TKO (61%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (46%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (28%)Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (23%)
-550Vegas Odds+425
8/10Lineup Pool2/10

 

Julia AvilavsPannie Kianzad
$8,600DFS Salary$7,600
Record: 6-1-0RecordRecord: 12-4-0
3 KO/TKO (27%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (40%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (20%)
-200Vegas Odds+170
7/10Lineup Pool2/10