It’s International Fight Week in Las Vegas for UFC 239. The UFC goes all out here. We’ve got two belts on the line from the arguably greatest male and female fighters ever. The card is stocked with intriguing fights. The salaries are a bit odd this week with no one between $7,900 and $8,300. That makes lineup construction a challenge.
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | BreakDown | ||
Main Event | Jon Jones vs Thiago Santos | 9600/6600 | - | Stackability: Safe | -750/ 525 | -212/611 | Jon Jones is the best MMA fighter ever at minimizing risk. He controls space better than anyone and utilizes his range doing it. Legends do tend to fall in MMA but I can't see Santos being Jones first loss beyond a punchers chance. Santos will be a challenge and is fine for a cash game stack. | |
Amanda Nunes | 9100 | Holly Holm | Safe | -410 | -110 | Nunes can beat you in so many ways. Holm is a great MMA boxer but relies on counterpunching. That's trouble against someone that brings as much pressure as Nunes. Add another legends scalp to Nunes' wall. | ||
Edmen Shahbazyan | 9400 | Jack Marshman | Safe | -650 | -132 | Normally I try to exercise caution with prospects that become big favorites. I'll forgo that with Shahbaz here. His two previous wins were against better fighters than Marshman. Edmen is a great bet for an early finish. | ||
Ismail Naurdiev | 9300 | Chance Rencountre | Somewhat-Safe | -550 | +140 | Naurdiev burst onto the UFC scene as a late replacement who defeated a very good Michel Prazeres. Dominated, in fact. The hype train has perhaps gotten too much steam but he's not your normal newcomer at 18-2. As long as his gas tank holds up he should win a competitive bout. | ||
Arnold Allen | 9000 | Gilbert Melendez | Somewhat-Safe | -325 | +312 | Another veteran who's past his prime gets offered to a prospect by the UFC. Melendez is tough and can still presumably wrestle, which makes a big DK score a tall order for Allen here. Allen should still have little trouble getting a decision win. | ||
Marlon Vera | 9500 | Nohelin Hernandez | Moderate | -400 | -160 | Vera has talent but the UFC gave him too much too soon at the end of 2017. They hit the reset button and his confidence has returned. He's getting a late replacement but not a layup in Hernandez. This should be a fun fight with plenty of back and forth. | ||
Michael Chiesa | 9200 | Diego Sanchez | Somewhat-Risky | -360 | -117 | Chiesa has very solid BJJ, with 11 of his 15 wins via submission. The move up in weight seems to suit him, too. Chiesa will look to fight smart and grapple his way to a win. Sanchez has yet to be submitted in 40 pro fights, though. | ||
Mid-Range | Julia Avila | 8600 | Pannie Kianzad | Safe | -200 | +190 | A great addition to the division, Avila is a one-woman wrecking crew. Her aggression is hard for most fighters to handle. She's also incredibly well-rounded. Kianzad is a veteran and a test, but one Avila should pass without much struggle. | |
Claudia Gadelha | 8800 | Randa Markos | Moderate | -240 | +412 | Gadelha has seen her star fall some of late. She was the "it" contender for a while. She's moved camps (again) and is looking to rebound from repeated losses to the division's best. Her wrestling is good and she's stronger than most opponents. That could be enough against the snake-bit Markos. | ||
Luke Rockhold | 8400 | Jan Blachowicz | Moderate | -225 | -110 | It's easy to forget how good Rockhold is. He's only fought three times in three years. That was at the top of the 185 lb. division, though. A move to 205 should help his chin. Rockhold does everything a little better the Blachowicz and could score a rare KO of the Pole. | ||
Song Yadong | 8500 | Alejandro Perez | Somewhat-Risky | -210 | +214 | Song is a young fighter but in a good camp. He's strong and talented. Perez is the most polished fighter he's faced to date. There can be growing pains with prospects. His speed advantage should allow him to be the aggressor and deserving favorite. | ||
Ben Askren | Jorge Masvidal | Risky | -220 | +402 | The gameplan for Askren is simple: blanket your opponent with world class wrestling. That tends to work up to a point. Robbie Lawler showed you can hit Askren with near impunity but gassed. Askren is playing with fire against Masvidal here. Wrestling scores, though. | |||
Pay-Downs | Jorge Masvidal | 7500 | Ben Askren | Somewhat-Risky | +180 | +270 | Masvidal will be takedown at points in this fight. He's a great grappler with a solid get up game. To win he needs to make the most of his time on the feet with Askren. "Gambred" seems pretty motivated with all the talking Askren's done. | |
Jan Blachowicz | 7800 | Luke Rockhold | Somewhat-Risky | +185 | +455 | Blachowicz has two paths to victory. He could test Rockhold's cracking chin. Jan throws straight punches in favor of power shots so that's not as likely. He could be the stronger man with Rockhold coming up a weight and grappler to victory. | ||
Diego Sanchez | 7000 | Michael Chiesa | Somewhat-Risky | +300 | +850 | This version of Sanchez isn't likely to be better at much then Chiesa. Much besides determination, that is. Sanchez is a legitimate psycho. Chiesa's quit in fights before. It's possible that Sanchez takes the fight to place Chiesa doesn't want to go. | ||
Alejandro Perez | 7700 | Song Yadong | Somewhat-Risky | +175 | +960 | Perez is great at winning rounds and decisions. He gets an opponent in Song, that while talented, is a bit green. A decision win gets pretty close to value at his price. | ||
Nohelin Hernandez | 6700 | Marlon Vera | Risky | +325 | +680 | Hernandez is a late replacement but was two weeks out from an LFA title fight. He'll be in shape and sharp. He fights out of a good camp and has a 2" reach advantage on Vera. We've seen Vera lose focus before. | ||
Randa Markos | 7400 | Claudia Gadelha | Risky | +200 | +850 | Gadelha has had some trouble with women that can wrestle. Markos can certainly do that. She's a deserving dog, but a live one. Her losses to Ansaroff and Grasso look better in hindsight, as both have shined lately. | ||
Gilbert Melendez | 7200 | Arnold Allen | High Risk | +265 | +620 | Allen has enjoyed being a big fish in a small pond in the UK. His only real test was Markwan Amirkhani and that was an SD-win. Melendez is a born fighter and could use his veteran savvy to steal a close fight. |
Example Lineups
Cash Plays: Jones/Santos stack, Nunes, Shahbazayan, Perez
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays: Avila, Naurdiev, Masvidal, Gadelha, Sanchez, Yadong
(Sample lineup)
Top Bets
Favorite Bets: Avila -200, Masvidal +180, Sanchez +300,
Favorite Props: Nunes ITD -110, Shahbazyan ITD -132
Live Dogs: Masvidal, Sanchez, Blachowicz, Perez, Markos
Stats & Picks
Jon Jones | vs | Thiago Santos |
$9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
Record: 24-1-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 21-6-0 |
10 KO/TKO (42%) | Knockouts | 15 KO/TKO (71%) |
6 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) |
-750 | Vegas Odds | +525 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Amanda Nunes | vs | Holly Holm |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 17-4-0 | Record | Record: 12-4-0 |
12 KO/TKO (71%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (67%) |
3 SUBMISSIONS (18%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
-410 | Vegas Odds | +330 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Jorge Masvidal | vs | Ben Askren |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
Record: 33-13-0 | Record | Record: 19-0-0 (1 NC) |
14 KO/TKO (42%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (32%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (6%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (32%) |
+180 | Vegas Odds | -220 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Jan Blachowicz | vs | Luke Rockhold |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
Record: 23-8-0 | Record | Record: 16-4-0 |
5 KO/TKO (22%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (38%) |
9 SUBMISSIONS (39%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (50%) |
+185 | Vegas Odds | -225 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Diego Sanchez | vs | Michael Chiesa |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
Record: 31-11-0 | Record | Record: 15-4-0 |
10 KO/TKO (34%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
6 SUBMISSIONS (21%) | Subs | 11 SUBMISSIONS (73%) |
+300 | Vegas Odds | -360 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Gilbert Melendez | vs | Arnold Allen |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
Record: 22-7-0 | Record | Record: 14-1-0 |
12 KO/TKO (55%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (36%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (29%) |
+265 | Vegas Odds | -325 |
2/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Marlon Vera | vs | Nohelin Hernandez |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
Record: 13-5-1 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
4 KO/TKO (31%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (33%) |
7 SUBMISSIONS (54%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
-400 | Vegas Odds | +325 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Claudia Gadelha | vs | Randa Markos |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 16-4-0 | Record | Record: 9-7-1 |
2 KO/TKO (13%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
7 SUBMISSIONS (44%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (44%) |
-240 | Vegas Odds | +200 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Alejandro Perez | vs | Song Yadong |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
Record: 22-7-1 | Record | Record: 14-4-0 (1 NC) |
9 KO/TKO (43%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (31%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (24%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (23%) |
+175 | Vegas Odds | -210 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Edmen Shahbazyan | vs | Jack Marshman |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
Record: 9-0-0 | Record | Record: 23-8-0 |
8 KO/TKO (89%) | Knockouts | 13 KO/TKO (57%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (22%) |
-650 | Vegas Odds | +475 |
9/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
Ismail Naurdiev | vs | Chance Rencountre |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 18-2-0 | Record | Record: 13-3-0 |
11 KO/TKO (61%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (46%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (28%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (23%) |
-550 | Vegas Odds | +425 |
8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Julia Avila | vs | Pannie Kianzad |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 6-1-0 | Record | Record: 12-4-0 |
3 KO/TKO (27%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (40%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (20%) |
-200 | Vegas Odds | +170 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |