This is a great card and it’s on ESPN, which means it’s free to view. Get a solid Saturday night sweat going with some MMA DFS. Ngannou-Dos Santos is an outstanding fight between two of the great true heavyweights and hardest punchers in all MMA. I like more bets than usual on the card so mix and match for parlays as you see fit.

 Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITDBreakDown
Main Event
Francis Ngannou vs Junior Dos Santos
8800/7400
-
Stackability: Risky
-230/ 190
-190/319
This plays out one of two ways. Ngannou finds a home for one of his lethal blows or JDS is just a better boxer and frustrates the tiring big man for multiple rounds.
        
Expensive
Drew Dober9500Polo ReyesSafe-320-101Dober is better anywhere the fight goes. He can pull out solid wrestling the way Damir Hadzoic did if Reyes hard punches start to be a bother. It’s a high price but very safe.
Alonzo Menifield9000Paul CraigSafe-275-154People are giving Craig too much respect for hail-mary subs. Menifield was just in the mat with a long and dangerous grappler. He passed that test with flying colors and will here, too.
Jared Gordon9200Dan MoretSomewhat-Safe-325+269Gordon has been one of the unluckiest people in the fight game. That luck changes here as he puts on a pace pushing clinic. His scores should easily break 100 DK points.
Ricardo Ramos9100Journey NewsonSomewhat-Safe-360+200I’m suspect of Ramos but not in this fight. There’s nothing Newson can do better. As long as Ramos doesn’t get cute he should find an easy win with some grappling points.
Eryk Anders9400Vinicius MoreiraSomewhat-Risky-325-14Anders is probably the better fighter but he’s fresh off a savage beating two months ago. Still, Moreira has chronic tall guy defense with his chin straight up like a speed bag. GPP only.
        
Mid-Range
Demian Maia8600Anthony Rocco MartinSomewhat-Safe-190+142If your name isn’t Colby, Kamaru, or Tyron you don’t have the wrestling to keep Maia off your back for three rounds. This is almost a lock for a finish via submission.
Roosevelt Roberts8900Vinc PichelSomewhat-Safe-280+171A bright prospect getting a true test. Pichel can match skills with Roberts and it will be fun to see where the kid can win it. That may hamper a high score but he’s fairly safe at a good price.
Dalcha Lungiambula8700Dequan TownsendModerate-325-150Dalch Champ is a good fighter getting a late replacement. That’s never a bad bet, despite some uncertainty. He also has good ITD odds, which pays on DK.
Joseph Benavidez8400Jussier FormigaSomewhat-Risky-155+317Joe B is someone that only a few fighters have managed to wrangle. Two of them were all-time greats… and one was Sergio Pettis. This is going to tell us a lot about what he has left.
Emily Whitmire Amanda RibasSomewhat-Risky  Whitmire is an all-around solid fighter with a great team behind her. That’s usually enough to go far in women’s MMA. She’s still a bit of an unknown, though.
Maurice Greene8200Junior AlbiniSomewhat-Risky-105+190Greene puts his length to excellent use. If his conditioning remains solid that’s a winning formula at heavyweight.
Junior Albini8000Maurice GreeneRisky-115+168Albini is in play for multiple lineup builders solely on the fact that he’s a heavyweight and can finish. I’m mostly fading him since I don’t think he’s very good.
        
Pay-Downs
Jussier Formiga7800Joseph BenavidezSomewhat-Risky+135+600Formiga has come a long way since their 2013 meeting. He just put on a grappling clinic versus the division’s most dangerous striker in Figuerdo. He’s not getting enough respect.
Vinicius Moreira6800Eryk AndersSomewhat-Risky+265+425As I mentioned above, there’s no way Anders is fully healed and training hard after how bad Rountree beat his head, body, and legs. Moreira is dangerous if things hit the mat.
Amanda Ribas7700Emily WhitmireSomewhat-Risky+160+450It’s always hard to know where a fighter is off of a long suspension. Ribas was solid.. Whitmire seems to be popular, so Ribas offers leverage.
Anthony Rocco Martin7600Demian MaiaRisky+165+700At some point, Maia’s age will cause his go for broke takedown style to be his undoing. That could be this fight. Martin has the striking to capitalize if so.
Vinc Pichel7300Roosevelt RobertsRisky+240+675It’s always smart to play a couple shares of the gritty vet. Prospects fail the test of a gatekeeper all the time.
Polo Reyes6700Drew DoberHigh Risk+260+535The one path to victory is Reyes drawing Dober into a slugfest. Most are smart enough not to go there with Reyes but Dober has gotten in plenty of brawls.
Dan Moret7000Jared GordonHigh Risk+265+641This would be a bet on Gordon’s awful bad luck continuing.
Cash Plays: Gordon, Dober, Maia, Roberts, Whitmire, Formiga

(Sample lineup)

GPP Plays: Menifield, Ramos, Ngannou or JDS, Greene, Moreira

(Sample lineup)

Favorite Bets: Menifield -275, Roberts -280, Formiga +135, Greene -105, JDS +190

Favorite Props: Maia ITD +142, Moreira via SUB +580, Gordon ITD +269

Live Dogs: JDS, Formiga, Moreira, Martin, Ribas

Francis NgannouvsJunior Dos Santos
$8,800DFS Salary$7,400
Record: 13-3-0RecordRecord: 21-5-0
9 KO/TKO (69%)Knockouts15 KO/TKO (71%)
4 SUBMISSIONS (31%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (5%)
-230Vegas Odds+190
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Jussier FormigavsJoseph Benavidez
$7,800DFS Salary$8,400
Record: 23-5-0RecordRecord: 27-5-0
0 KO/TKO (0%)Knockouts7 KO/TKO (26%)
10 SUBMISSIONS (43%)Subs9 SUBMISSIONS (33%)
+135Vegas Odds-155
5/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Demian MaiavsAnthony Rocco Martin
$8,600DFS Salary$7,600
Record: 26-9-0RecordRecord: 16-4-0
3 KO/TKO (12%)Knockouts1 KO/TKO (6%)
13 SUBMISSIONS (50%)Subs9 SUBMISSIONS (56%)
-190Vegas Odds+165
8/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Roosevelt RobertsvsVinc Pichel
$8,900DFS Salary$7,300
Record: 8-0-0RecordRecord: 11-2-0
3 KO/TKO (38%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (73%)
4 SUBMISSIONS (50%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
-280Vegas Odds+240
6/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Drew DobervsPolo Reyes
$9,500DFS Salary$6,700
Record: 20-9-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 8-6-0
7 KO/TKO (35%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (75%)
6 SUBMISSIONS (30%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (13%)
-320Vegas Odds+260
6/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Alonzo MenifieldvsPaul Craig
$9,000DFS Salary$7,200
Record: 8-0-0RecordRecord: 11-3-0
7 KO/TKO (88%)Knockouts1 KO/TKO (9%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (13%)Subs10 SUBMISSIONS (91%)
-275Vegas Odds+235
9/10Lineup Pool1/10
   
Ricardo RamosvsJourney Newson
$9,100DFS Salary$7,100
Record: 12-2-0RecordRecord: 9-1-0
3 KO/TKO (25%)Knockouts1 KO/TKO (14%)
6 SUBMISSIONS (50%)Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (43%)
-360Vegas Odds+265
5/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Eryk AndersvsVinicius Moreira
$9,400DFS Salary$6,800
Record: 11-4-0RecordRecord: 9-2-0
7 KO/TKO (64%)Knockouts1 KO/TKO (11%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (9%)Subs8 SUBMISSIONS (89%)
-325Vegas Odds+265
5/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Jordan GriffinvsVince Murdock
$9,300DFS Salary$6,900
Record: 17-6-0RecordRecord: 12-3-0 (1 NC)
5 KO/TKO (29%)Knockouts7 KO/TKO (70%)
8 SUBMISSIONS (47%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (10%)
-400Vegas Odds+325
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Jared GordonvsDan Moret
$9,200DFS Salary$7,000
Record: 14-3-0RecordRecord: 13-5-0
6 KO/TKO (43%)Knockouts1 KO/TKO (8%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (14%)Subs8 SUBMISSIONS (62%)
-325Vegas Odds+265
8/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Dalcha LungiambulavsDequan Townsend
$8,700DFS Salary$7,500
Record: 9-1-0RecordRecord: 21-8-0
4 KO/TKO (44%)Knockouts12 KO/TKO (67%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (11%)Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (17%)
-325Vegas Odds+250
7/10Lineup Pool1/10
   
Emily WhitmirevsAmanda Ribas
$8,500DFS Salary$7,700
Record: 4-2-0RecordRecord: 6-1-0
0 KO/TKO (0%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (50%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (25%)Subs2 SUBMISSIONS (33%)
-185Vegas Odds+160
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Maurice GreenevsJunior Albini
$8,200DFS Salary$8,000
Record: 7-3-0RecordRecord: 14-5-0
1 KO/TKO (14%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (43%)
4 SUBMISSIONS (57%)Subs6 SUBMISSIONS (43%)
-105Vegas Odds-115
5/10Lineup Pool3/10