This is a great card and it’s on ESPN, which means it’s free to view. Get a solid Saturday night sweat going with some MMA DFS. Ngannou-Dos Santos is an outstanding fight between two of the great true heavyweights and hardest punchers in all MMA. I like more bets than usual on the card so mix and match for parlays as you see fit.
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | BreakDown | |
Main Event | Francis Ngannou vs Junior Dos Santos | 8800/7400 | - | Stackability: Risky | -230/ 190 | -190/319 | This plays out one of two ways. Ngannou finds a home for one of his lethal blows or JDS is just a better boxer and frustrates the tiring big man for multiple rounds. |
Expensive | Drew Dober | 9500 | Polo Reyes | Safe | -320 | -101 | Dober is better anywhere the fight goes. He can pull out solid wrestling the way Damir Hadzoic did if Reyes hard punches start to be a bother. It’s a high price but very safe. |
Alonzo Menifield | 9000 | Paul Craig | Safe | -275 | -154 | People are giving Craig too much respect for hail-mary subs. Menifield was just in the mat with a long and dangerous grappler. He passed that test with flying colors and will here, too. | |
Jared Gordon | 9200 | Dan Moret | Somewhat-Safe | -325 | +269 | Gordon has been one of the unluckiest people in the fight game. That luck changes here as he puts on a pace pushing clinic. His scores should easily break 100 DK points. | |
Ricardo Ramos | 9100 | Journey Newson | Somewhat-Safe | -360 | +200 | I’m suspect of Ramos but not in this fight. There’s nothing Newson can do better. As long as Ramos doesn’t get cute he should find an easy win with some grappling points. | |
Eryk Anders | 9400 | Vinicius Moreira | Somewhat-Risky | -325 | -14 | Anders is probably the better fighter but he’s fresh off a savage beating two months ago. Still, Moreira has chronic tall guy defense with his chin straight up like a speed bag. GPP only. | |
Mid-Range | Demian Maia | 8600 | Anthony Rocco Martin | Somewhat-Safe | -190 | +142 | If your name isn’t Colby, Kamaru, or Tyron you don’t have the wrestling to keep Maia off your back for three rounds. This is almost a lock for a finish via submission. |
Roosevelt Roberts | 8900 | Vinc Pichel | Somewhat-Safe | -280 | +171 | A bright prospect getting a true test. Pichel can match skills with Roberts and it will be fun to see where the kid can win it. That may hamper a high score but he’s fairly safe at a good price. | |
Dalcha Lungiambula | 8700 | Dequan Townsend | Moderate | -325 | -150 | Dalch Champ is a good fighter getting a late replacement. That’s never a bad bet, despite some uncertainty. He also has good ITD odds, which pays on DK. | |
Joseph Benavidez | 8400 | Jussier Formiga | Somewhat-Risky | -155 | +317 | Joe B is someone that only a few fighters have managed to wrangle. Two of them were all-time greats… and one was Sergio Pettis. This is going to tell us a lot about what he has left. | |
Emily Whitmire | Amanda Ribas | Somewhat-Risky | Whitmire is an all-around solid fighter with a great team behind her. That’s usually enough to go far in women’s MMA. She’s still a bit of an unknown, though. | ||||
Maurice Greene | 8200 | Junior Albini | Somewhat-Risky | -105 | +190 | Greene puts his length to excellent use. If his conditioning remains solid that’s a winning formula at heavyweight. | |
Junior Albini | 8000 | Maurice Greene | Risky | -115 | +168 | Albini is in play for multiple lineup builders solely on the fact that he’s a heavyweight and can finish. I’m mostly fading him since I don’t think he’s very good. | |
Pay-Downs | Jussier Formiga | 7800 | Joseph Benavidez | Somewhat-Risky | +135 | +600 | Formiga has come a long way since their 2013 meeting. He just put on a grappling clinic versus the division’s most dangerous striker in Figuerdo. He’s not getting enough respect. |
Vinicius Moreira | 6800 | Eryk Anders | Somewhat-Risky | +265 | +425 | As I mentioned above, there’s no way Anders is fully healed and training hard after how bad Rountree beat his head, body, and legs. Moreira is dangerous if things hit the mat. | |
Amanda Ribas | 7700 | Emily Whitmire | Somewhat-Risky | +160 | +450 | It’s always hard to know where a fighter is off of a long suspension. Ribas was solid.. Whitmire seems to be popular, so Ribas offers leverage. | |
Anthony Rocco Martin | 7600 | Demian Maia | Risky | +165 | +700 | At some point, Maia’s age will cause his go for broke takedown style to be his undoing. That could be this fight. Martin has the striking to capitalize if so. | |
Vinc Pichel | 7300 | Roosevelt Roberts | Risky | +240 | +675 | It’s always smart to play a couple shares of the gritty vet. Prospects fail the test of a gatekeeper all the time. | |
Polo Reyes | 6700 | Drew Dober | High Risk | +260 | +535 | The one path to victory is Reyes drawing Dober into a slugfest. Most are smart enough not to go there with Reyes but Dober has gotten in plenty of brawls. | |
Dan Moret | 7000 | Jared Gordon | High Risk | +265 | +641 | This would be a bet on Gordon’s awful bad luck continuing. |
Cash Plays: Gordon, Dober, Maia, Roberts, Whitmire, Formiga
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays: Menifield, Ramos, Ngannou or JDS, Greene, Moreira
(Sample lineup)
Favorite Bets: Menifield -275, Roberts -280, Formiga +135, Greene -105, JDS +190
Favorite Props: Maia ITD +142, Moreira via SUB +580, Gordon ITD +269
Live Dogs: JDS, Formiga, Moreira, Martin, Ribas
Francis Ngannou | vs | Junior Dos Santos |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 13-3-0 | Record | Record: 21-5-0 |
9 KO/TKO (69%) | Knockouts | 15 KO/TKO (71%) |
4 SUBMISSIONS (31%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) |
-230 | Vegas Odds | +190 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Jussier Formiga | vs | Joseph Benavidez |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
Record: 23-5-0 | Record | Record: 27-5-0 |
0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (26%) |
10 SUBMISSIONS (43%) | Subs | 9 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
+135 | Vegas Odds | -155 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Demian Maia | vs | Anthony Rocco Martin |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 26-9-0 | Record | Record: 16-4-0 |
3 KO/TKO (12%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (6%) |
13 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 9 SUBMISSIONS (56%) |
-190 | Vegas Odds | +165 |
8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Roosevelt Roberts | vs | Vinc Pichel |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 8-0-0 | Record | Record: 11-2-0 |
3 KO/TKO (38%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (73%) |
4 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
-280 | Vegas Odds | +240 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Drew Dober | vs | Polo Reyes |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
Record: 20-9-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 8-6-0 |
7 KO/TKO (35%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (75%) |
6 SUBMISSIONS (30%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (13%) |
-320 | Vegas Odds | +260 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Alonzo Menifield | vs | Paul Craig |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 8-0-0 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
7 KO/TKO (88%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (9%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (13%) | Subs | 10 SUBMISSIONS (91%) |
-275 | Vegas Odds | +235 |
9/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
Ricardo Ramos | vs | Journey Newson |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 12-2-0 | Record | Record: 9-1-0 |
3 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (14%) |
6 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (43%) |
-360 | Vegas Odds | +265 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Eryk Anders | vs | Vinicius Moreira |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
Record: 11-4-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
7 KO/TKO (64%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (11%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (9%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (89%) |
-325 | Vegas Odds | +265 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Jordan Griffin | vs | Vince Murdock |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 17-6-0 | Record | Record: 12-3-0 (1 NC) |
5 KO/TKO (29%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (70%) |
8 SUBMISSIONS (47%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (10%) |
-400 | Vegas Odds | +325 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Jared Gordon | vs | Dan Moret |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
Record: 14-3-0 | Record | Record: 13-5-0 |
6 KO/TKO (43%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (8%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (14%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (62%) |
-325 | Vegas Odds | +265 |
8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Dalcha Lungiambula | vs | Dequan Townsend |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 21-8-0 |
4 KO/TKO (44%) | Knockouts | 12 KO/TKO (67%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (11%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (17%) |
-325 | Vegas Odds | +250 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
Emily Whitmire | vs | Amanda Ribas |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
Record: 4-2-0 | Record | Record: 6-1-0 |
0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (50%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
-185 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Maurice Greene | vs | Junior Albini |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
Record: 7-3-0 | Record | Record: 14-5-0 |
1 KO/TKO (14%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (43%) |
4 SUBMISSIONS (57%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (43%) |
-105 | Vegas Odds | -115 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |