We’re back to Fight Night cards. This one has a great headliner but leaves a lot to be desired. Especially with John Lineker pulling out due to injury. The mid-range is weak and there are very few safe bets. You’re going to have to get a little weird to win anything big.

 

 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

BreakDown

Main Event

Renato Moicano vs Chan Sung Jung

8600/7600

-

Stackability: Safe

-220/ 180

118/242

This is a perfect match for both sides. Moicano needs to show he can handle a pressure fighter. Jung needs a win against a contender for a title push. It should be high paced and entertaining. I see Jung finding a late KO. Stack in cash.

        

Expensive

Deron Winn

9300

Eric Spicely

Safe

-300

+110

Despite his short stature, he brings some heat. He can also fall back on his wrestling. There’s a hair of risk with expensive newcomers but Winn’s decorated outside the cage.

Bryan Barberena

9200

Randy Brown

Somewhat-Safe

-270

+145

If his chin is fine from the beating Luque dropped on it, he cruises here. He will easily outwork Brown and can hold his own on the mat if it goes there.

John Lineker

8900

Rob Font

Somewhat-Safe

-225

+220

An interesting rematch here. Lineker won the first fight but is largely the same fighter. Font still doesn’t have the will to go through the hell Lineker dishes out and pull a  Sandhagen.

Luis Pena

9500

Matt Wiman

Moderate

-390

+147

Getting a 35-year-old who hasn’t fought in five years is about as good a cupcake that the UFC can give a true prospect. His range and versatility are probably too much for Wiman.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

9000

Allen Crowder

Moderate

-220

-142

If he can stuff takedowns he has an easy KO in front of him. Crowder after Albini is an odd progression, but the raw fighter could use the wrestling practice.

Ariane Lipski

9100

Molly McCann

Moderate

-280

+186

She’s overpriced but could still score a KO to hit value. The heavy line movement her way seems to show the public understanding the UFC wanting to get Lipski a win.

        

Mid-Range

Kevin Holland

8800

Alessio Di Chirico

Somewhat-Safe

-235

+162

Holland has all the physical tools to have a successful UFC career. He screws around too much and gets himself in trouble. If he’s focussed he outclasses Di Chirico.

Kevin Aguilar

8400

Dan Ige

Moderate

-150

+400

His boxing is sharp and he hits hard. Ige is a different grappler than Barzola, but Aguilar had no trouble with him. This could be a good spot to grab a low owned fighter.

Andrea Lee

8700

Montana De La Rosa

Moderate

-210

+425

Here striking is miles ahead of her opponents. If she keeps it standing this fight is hers.

Ashley Yoder

8200

Syuri Kondo

Somewhat-Risky

-120

+482

I’m banking on her being able to take Kondo down at will and avoid being outpointed on the feet. It’s not a given, but that seems like a manageable path to victory for Yoder.

Andre Ewell

8300

Anderson Dos Santos

Risky

-110

+265

Despite opening as a big favorite, Ewell’s been bet down to even odds. His reach makes him the more likely to win if his poor defensive wrestling doesn’t cause issues.

Anderson Dos Santos

7900

Andre Ewell

Risky

-110

+202

Ewell’s opponent, the blueprint to winning is clear: take him down. Dos Santos still has to get through Ewell’s reach, but if he does get inside it’s trouble for him.

        

Pay-Downs

Dan Ige

7800

Kevin Aguilar

Somewhat-Risky

+130

+300

A relentless wrestler. Ige fights hard for your money bell to bell. He’s looking for finishes constantly, as well. He’ll score well in a win, though it’s a big challenge.

Molly McCann

7100

Ariane Lipski

Somewhat-Risky

+240

+1,000

The odds are too low on her. She’s tough and improving. The UFC wants her to lose, but don’t tell her that. If she doesn’t get KO’d early her heart may win the later rounds.

Montana De La Rosa

7500

Andrea Lee

Somewhat-Risky

+175

+428

Raw on the feet but polished on the mat. Lee struggles to prevent takedowns at times. Montana isn’t the most accurate with TDs but she does tend to stay after it. The sub is in play.

Alessio Di Chirico

7400

Kevin Holland

Risky

+195

+735

If Holland screws around, Alessio has the workmanlike style to win 2 of 3 rounds. If he can win takedowns and maintain control we’ve seen Holland get bored.

Rob Font

7300

John Lineker

High Risk

+185

+675

He is a better fighter than the last time they fought. Sandhagen just showed how Lineker can be beat. You need to want it worse than you care about taking a beating, though.

Matt Wiman

6700

Luis Pena

High Risk

+320

+675

Mainly a cash play for some possible takedowns at the cheapest price. There’s an outside chance his wrestling is still sharp and Pena’s length is his undoing.

Allen Crowder

7200

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

High Risk

+190

+305

When a heavyweight gets top control a KO isn’t hard to produce. It’s probably Crowder get a takedown at some point early and have some time to work.


 

Cash Plays: Moicano/Jung stack, Barberena, Winn, Wiman

(Sample Lineup)


 

GPP Plays: Rozenstuik, Holland, Aguilar or Ige, De La Rosa, McCann

(Sample Lineup)

 

Favorite Bets: Jung +185, Barberena -270, Yoder -120

 

Favorite Props: Aguilar ITD +345, De La Rosa via SUB +440

 

Live Dogs: Jung, De La Rosa, Ige, Di Chirico, Wiman, McCann

 

Stats and Picks:

Renato Moicano

vs

Chan Sung Jung

$8,600

DFS Salary

$7,600

Record: 13-2-1

Record

Record: 14-5-0

0 KO/TKO (0%)

Knockouts

4 KO/TKO (29%)

6 SUBMISSIONS (46%)

Subs

8 SUBMISSIONS (57%)

-220

Vegas Odds

+180

5/10

Lineup Pool

6/10

   

John Lineker

vs

Rob Font

$8,900

DFS Salary

$7,300

Record: 31-9-0

Record

Record: 16-4-0

14 KO/TKO (45%)

Knockouts

7 KO/TKO (44%)

4 SUBMISSIONS (13%)

Subs

4 SUBMISSIONS (25%)

-225

Vegas Odds

+185

7/10

Lineup Pool

3/10

   

Bryan Barberena

vs

Randy Brown

$9,200

DFS Salary

$7,000

Record: 14-6-0

Record

Record: 10-3-0

10 KO/TKO (71%)

Knockouts

5 KO/TKO (50%)

2 SUBMISSIONS (14%)

Subs

3 SUBMISSIONS (30%)

-270

Vegas Odds

+230

8/10

Lineup Pool

1/10

   

Andrea Lee

vs

Montana De La Rosa

$8,700

DFS Salary

$7,500

Record: 10-2-0

Record

Record: 10-4-0

2 KO/TKO (20%)

Knockouts

0 KO/TKO (0%)

4 SUBMISSIONS (40%)

Subs

8 SUBMISSIONS (80%)

-210

Vegas Odds

+175

3/10

Lineup Pool

4/10

   

Kevin Holland

vs

Alessio Di Chirico

$8,800

DFS Salary

$7,400

Record: 15-4-0

Record

Record: 12-2-0

5 KO/TKO (42%)

Knockouts

6 KO/TKO (43%)

4 SUBMISSIONS (33%)

Subs

6 SUBMISSIONS (43%)

-235

Vegas Odds

+195

5/10

Lineup Pool

3/10

   

Dan Ige

vs

Kevin Aguilar

$7,800

DFS Salary

$8,400

Record: 11-2-0

Record

Record: 17-1-0

3 KO/TKO (27%)

Knockouts

10 KO/TKO (59%)

5 SUBMISSIONS (45%)

Subs

1 SUBMISSIONS (6%)

+130

Vegas Odds

-150

4/10

Lineup Pool

5/10

   

Ashley Yoder

vs

Syuri Kondo

$8,200

DFS Salary

$8,000

Record: 6-4-0

Record

Record: 6-2-0

0 KO/TKO (0%)

Knockouts

1 KO/TKO (17%)

4 SUBMISSIONS (67%)

Subs

0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)

-120

Vegas Odds

+100

3/10

Lineup Pool

2/10

   

Matt Wiman

vs

Luis Pena

$6,700

DFS Salary

$9,500

Record: 16-7-0

Record

Record: 6-1-0

4 KO/TKO (25%)

Knockouts

1 KO/TKO (17%)

5 SUBMISSIONS (31%)

Subs

4 SUBMISSIONS (67%)

+320

Vegas Odds

-390

5/10

Lineup Pool

2/10

   

Allen Crowder

vs

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

$7,200

DFS Salary

$9,000

Record: 10-3-0 (1 NC)

Record

Record: 7-0-0

5 KO/TKO (50%)

Knockouts

6 KO/TKO (86%)

3 SUBMISSIONS (30%)

Subs

0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)

+190

Vegas Odds

-220

4/10

Lineup Pool

4/10

   

Ariane Lipski

vs

Molly McCann

$9,100

DFS Salary

$7,100

Record: 11-4-0

Record

Record: 8-2-0

6 KO/TKO (55%)

Knockouts

4 KO/TKO (50%)

2 SUBMISSIONS (18%)

Subs

0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)

-280

Vegas Odds

+240

4/10

Lineup Pool

2/10

   

Deron Winn

vs

Eric Spicely

$9,300

DFS Salary

$6,900

Record: 5-0-0

Record

Record: 12-5-0

4 KO/TKO (80%)

Knockouts

4 KO/TKO (33%)

0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)

Subs

6 SUBMISSIONS (50%)

-300

Vegas Odds

+250

4/10

Lineup Pool

4/10

   

Andre Ewell

vs

Anderson Dos Santos

$8,300

DFS Salary

$7,900

Record: 14-5-0

Record

Record: 20-7-0

7 KO/TKO (50%)

Knockouts

5 KO/TKO (25%)

4 SUBMISSIONS (29%)

Subs

11 SUBMISSIONS (55%)

-110

Vegas Odds

-110

4/10

Lineup Pool

3/10