We’re back to Fight Night cards. This one has a great headliner but leaves a lot to be desired. Especially with John Lineker pulling out due to injury. The mid-range is weak and there are very few safe bets. You’re going to have to get a little weird to win anything big.
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | BreakDown | |
Main Event | Renato Moicano vs Chan Sung Jung | 8600/7600 | - | Stackability: Safe | -220/ 180 | 118/242 | This is a perfect match for both sides. Moicano needs to show he can handle a pressure fighter. Jung needs a win against a contender for a title push. It should be high paced and entertaining. I see Jung finding a late KO. Stack in cash. |
Expensive | Deron Winn | 9300 | Eric Spicely | Safe | -300 | +110 | Despite his short stature, he brings some heat. He can also fall back on his wrestling. There’s a hair of risk with expensive newcomers but Winn’s decorated outside the cage. |
Bryan Barberena | 9200 | Randy Brown | Somewhat-Safe | -270 | +145 | If his chin is fine from the beating Luque dropped on it, he cruises here. He will easily outwork Brown and can hold his own on the mat if it goes there. | |
John Lineker | 8900 | Rob Font | Somewhat-Safe | -225 | +220 | An interesting rematch here. Lineker won the first fight but is largely the same fighter. Font still doesn’t have the will to go through the hell Lineker dishes out and pull a Sandhagen. | |
Luis Pena | 9500 | Matt Wiman | Moderate | -390 | +147 | Getting a 35-year-old who hasn’t fought in five years is about as good a cupcake that the UFC can give a true prospect. His range and versatility are probably too much for Wiman. | |
Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 9000 | Allen Crowder | Moderate | -220 | -142 | If he can stuff takedowns he has an easy KO in front of him. Crowder after Albini is an odd progression, but the raw fighter could use the wrestling practice. | |
Ariane Lipski | 9100 | Molly McCann | Moderate | -280 | +186 | She’s overpriced but could still score a KO to hit value. The heavy line movement her way seems to show the public understanding the UFC wanting to get Lipski a win. | |
Mid-Range | Kevin Holland | 8800 | Alessio Di Chirico | Somewhat-Safe | -235 | +162 | Holland has all the physical tools to have a successful UFC career. He screws around too much and gets himself in trouble. If he’s focussed he outclasses Di Chirico. |
Kevin Aguilar | 8400 | Dan Ige | Moderate | -150 | +400 | His boxing is sharp and he hits hard. Ige is a different grappler than Barzola, but Aguilar had no trouble with him. This could be a good spot to grab a low owned fighter. | |
Andrea Lee | 8700 | Montana De La Rosa | Moderate | -210 | +425 | Here striking is miles ahead of her opponents. If she keeps it standing this fight is hers. | |
Ashley Yoder | 8200 | Syuri Kondo | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | +482 | I’m banking on her being able to take Kondo down at will and avoid being outpointed on the feet. It’s not a given, but that seems like a manageable path to victory for Yoder. | |
Andre Ewell | 8300 | Anderson Dos Santos | Risky | -110 | +265 | Despite opening as a big favorite, Ewell’s been bet down to even odds. His reach makes him the more likely to win if his poor defensive wrestling doesn’t cause issues. | |
Anderson Dos Santos | 7900 | Andre Ewell | Risky | -110 | +202 | Ewell’s opponent, the blueprint to winning is clear: take him down. Dos Santos still has to get through Ewell’s reach, but if he does get inside it’s trouble for him. | |
Pay-Downs | Dan Ige | 7800 | Kevin Aguilar | Somewhat-Risky | +130 | +300 | A relentless wrestler. Ige fights hard for your money bell to bell. He’s looking for finishes constantly, as well. He’ll score well in a win, though it’s a big challenge. |
Molly McCann | 7100 | Ariane Lipski | Somewhat-Risky | +240 | +1,000 | The odds are too low on her. She’s tough and improving. The UFC wants her to lose, but don’t tell her that. If she doesn’t get KO’d early her heart may win the later rounds. | |
Montana De La Rosa | 7500 | Andrea Lee | Somewhat-Risky | +175 | +428 | Raw on the feet but polished on the mat. Lee struggles to prevent takedowns at times. Montana isn’t the most accurate with TDs but she does tend to stay after it. The sub is in play. | |
Alessio Di Chirico | 7400 | Kevin Holland | Risky | +195 | +735 | If Holland screws around, Alessio has the workmanlike style to win 2 of 3 rounds. If he can win takedowns and maintain control we’ve seen Holland get bored. | |
Rob Font | 7300 | John Lineker | High Risk | +185 | +675 | He is a better fighter than the last time they fought. Sandhagen just showed how Lineker can be beat. You need to want it worse than you care about taking a beating, though. | |
Matt Wiman | 6700 | Luis Pena | High Risk | +320 | +675 | Mainly a cash play for some possible takedowns at the cheapest price. There’s an outside chance his wrestling is still sharp and Pena’s length is his undoing. | |
Allen Crowder | 7200 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | High Risk | +190 | +305 | When a heavyweight gets top control a KO isn’t hard to produce. It’s probably Crowder get a takedown at some point early and have some time to work. |
Cash Plays: Moicano/Jung stack, Barberena, Winn, Wiman
(Sample Lineup)
GPP Plays: Rozenstuik, Holland, Aguilar or Ige, De La Rosa, McCann
(Sample Lineup)
Favorite Bets: Jung +185, Barberena -270, Yoder -120
Favorite Props: Aguilar ITD +345, De La Rosa via SUB +440
Live Dogs: Jung, De La Rosa, Ige, Di Chirico, Wiman, McCann
Stats and Picks:
Renato Moicano | vs | Chan Sung Jung |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 13-2-1 | Record | Record: 14-5-0 |
0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (29%) |
6 SUBMISSIONS (46%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (57%) |
-220 | Vegas Odds | +180 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
John Lineker | vs | Rob Font |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 31-9-0 | Record | Record: 16-4-0 |
14 KO/TKO (45%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (44%) |
4 SUBMISSIONS (13%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (25%) |
-225 | Vegas Odds | +185 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Bryan Barberena | vs | Randy Brown |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
Record: 14-6-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 |
10 KO/TKO (71%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (50%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (14%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (30%) |
-270 | Vegas Odds | +230 |
8/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
Andrea Lee | vs | Montana De La Rosa |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 10-2-0 | Record | Record: 10-4-0 |
2 KO/TKO (20%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
4 SUBMISSIONS (40%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (80%) |
-210 | Vegas Odds | +175 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Kevin Holland | vs | Alessio Di Chirico |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 15-4-0 | Record | Record: 12-2-0 |
5 KO/TKO (42%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (43%) |
4 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (43%) |
-235 | Vegas Odds | +195 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Dan Ige | vs | Kevin Aguilar |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 17-1-0 |
3 KO/TKO (27%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (59%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (45%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (6%) |
+130 | Vegas Odds | -150 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Ashley Yoder | vs | Syuri Kondo |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
Record: 6-4-0 | Record | Record: 6-2-0 |
0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (17%) |
4 SUBMISSIONS (67%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
-120 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Matt Wiman | vs | Luis Pena |
$6,700 | DFS Salary | $9,500 |
Record: 16-7-0 | Record | Record: 6-1-0 |
4 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (17%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (31%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (67%) |
+320 | Vegas Odds | -390 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Allen Crowder | vs | Jairzinho Rozenstruik |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
Record: 10-3-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 7-0-0 |
5 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (86%) |
3 SUBMISSIONS (30%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
+190 | Vegas Odds | -220 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Ariane Lipski | vs | Molly McCann |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 11-4-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
6 KO/TKO (55%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (50%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (18%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
-280 | Vegas Odds | +240 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Deron Winn | vs | Eric Spicely |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 5-0-0 | Record | Record: 12-5-0 |
4 KO/TKO (80%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (33%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (50%) |
-300 | Vegas Odds | +250 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Andre Ewell | vs | Anderson Dos Santos |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
Record: 14-5-0 | Record | Record: 20-7-0 |
7 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (25%) |
4 SUBMISSIONS (29%) | Subs | 11 SUBMISSIONS (55%) |
-110 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |