We’ve been examining Weighted On-Base Average minus Expected Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA-xwOBA) for hitters up to this point. It works for pitchers as well once the sample has become large enough. A higher xwOBA than wOBA indicates someone’s been lucky with balls in play. A higher wOBA means they’ve had poor luck.


Here is the leaderboard of wOBA-xwOBA for a minimum of 500 pitches.

  • Many of these pitchers have fastball problems. Corbin Burnes is the poster boy for that. Great secondary stuff could be muddled by a fastball that hitters do what they want with.

  • A bunch of relievers show up here, likely due to a select number of poor innings in a smaller sample. Those blips will smooth if they continue to pitch well.

  • That won’t be the case for someone like José Leclerc if he continues to have control issues.

  • Chris Stratton is still not a major league pitcher, despite his luck.

  • Is Tyler Beede as bad as his wOBA? Maybe not. He’s...