MLB Advanced Analytics: wOBA-xwOBA: Part Two
Mike Alexander takes another look at wOBA vs. xwOBA and how it can be used as a tool to predict regression to the mean.
Now that we’re a month into the 2019 season it’s time to start revisiting some of the analytics we’ve looked at during the first month. On tap again this week is the Weighted On-Base Average minus Expected Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA-xwOBA). The progressively weighted values wOBA places on At-Bat results is more indicative of underlying skills. I’ve also included Batting Average minus Expected Batting Average (BA-xBA) to add some context. The reason we’re comparing actual to expected rates is to remove some of the luck that naturally occurs in baseball. Feel free to dig into Statcast’s wOBA-xwOBA leaderboard for yourself. Don’t be afraid to poke around some of the other expected metrics while you’re there.
Normally I’d cut the list off at ten but I have a soft spot for J.D. Martinez. A few guys that pop out in both columns are Franmil Reyes , Starling Marte , and Jesús Aguilar . Franmil was a name I mentioned with this same metric last month. He’s still killing the ball...