UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2

We have two belts on the line for UFC 236 on Saturday night. The UFC gave us another amazingly violent headliner with Holloway-Poirier 2. Can Blessed Max avenge an early defeat? It’s going to be fun finding out.

Case for Holloway: He may be the best lightweight of all time, and that’s saying something. His losses were all at a pretty young age and he’s gotten better each time we’ve seen him fight. The weight cut scare from last year seems behind him, especially at 155. His striking is both voluminous and accurate.

Case for Poirier: Diamond Dustin has a knack for finding himself in a war. That should be the case here. He makes a strong case for being a good bet when that happens having outlasted Justin Gaethje and Eddie Alvarez in donnybrooks. Oh, and he has a win over a 21-year-old Holloway in 2012.

The Play: It’s not often the victor of the first fight comes in as a dog. That tells you a lot about Holloway’s progression. Both fighters are great plays. The volume on each end makes a good cash game stack. My personal feeling is Holloway is just a cut above and takes the win in an all-time great fight.

Case for Gastelum: He’s a tough fighter to figure out for most opponents. His losses have been to the greats of the division, and he has some big trophies on his wall, too. A focus on defense can keep his DK score low at times. To win here he probably needs to pull some wrestling back out of his bag.

Case for Adesanya: Izzy is one of the best kickboxers in the UFC currently. He’s a newer face in the octagon but has more fights than anyone if you count kickboxing matches. His length and speed make him a nightmare to fight. You can’t hit him and he’s always peppering you, with plus power waiting to strike.

The Play: The question around Adesanya has always been can he survive takedown attempts in his transition to MMA. He does have decent takedown defense and utilizes his length to sweep opponents who shoot on him. Will that be enough against a formerly good wrestler in Gastelum? I’m not sure it is. Not for five rounds. Izzy likely needs a KO in the first half of the fight to avoid a decision loss. It’s close though. His accuracy from range could certainly carry the day and earn a victory. A less stackable fight for me, as well.

Case for Anders: It’s more about his opponent here than anything. Anders solid wrestling behind accurate striking is the formula to a win for him. He’s been a frustrating fighter lately on a 1-3 skid against better competition.

Case for Rountree: He has some kind of power in his hands. Opponents underestimating him have learned that the hard way.

The Play: Outside of a one-punch knockout there’s not much appeal on Rountree. At his price that could be enough to warrant some lineup inclusion. Anders poor execution and bad luck lately also scares me off his price. That’s going to be a popular sentiment and could make an interesting pivot play for large builds.

Case for Jouban: The momentum Jouban had built got derailed in two 2017 loses. He got a gimme with a match-up against Ben Saunders a year ago. He hasn’t fought since, undergoing neck surgery. When on his game his tight striking is a tough puzzle to crack.

Case for Grant: If he actually decides to throw his hands there’s immense power there. His apprehension has become an issue in the UFC, dropping a decision to journeyman Zak Ottow and losing the first round to Carlo Pedersoli before the later rushed into a haymaker to end the round.

The Play: Unless Grant has found a way to get past his inability to be the aggressor this fight is Jouban’s. His solid output and smart defense will be too much for Grant. I don’t see Jouban making the mistake Pedersolli did, either.

Case for Saint Preaux: One of the best raw athletes at light heavyweight. He continues finding ways to pull out enough wins to stay relevant. Dominick Reyes took him to pieces in his last fight and his age may be starting to show.

Case for Krylov: He’s never gone to the scorecards in 30 career fights. That’s the kind of approach we’re after in DFS. Of his 6 loses five came via submission. That’s some concern against OSP. Krylov has plenty of subs in his own right, though.

The Play: I may be placing too much stock in the beatdown Reyes put on OSP but that is sticking in my mind with a 36-year-old fighter. Krylov is another aggressive fighter that just needs to watch his neck in a winnable fight.

Case for Turner: The Tarantula is long and aggressive. That’s a problem for most fighters. He’ll have both a 6” height and reach advantage. His pace so far in the UFC is dizzying, though that caused issues in his KO loss to the very good Vincente Luque.

Case for Frevola: Steamrolla came into the UFC with some excitement but hasn’t delivered in two losses. Polo Reyes knocked him out in under a minute and he fought Lando Vannata to a draw. We’ve seen brawler so far and that’s been an issue, suffering multiple knockdowns.

The Play: Frevola would need to wrestle his way to a victory in all likelihood. That’s a possibility, but he’s shown no indication he’ll set aside his wild style to aim at a victory. Turner has too much reach and too much power for someone with a suspect chin. I will add that public money is heavily on Frevola, though that could be a timing quirk as of writing this.

Case for Reis: He has one goal, to out grapple opponents. He’s in trouble when the fight’s on the feet. After earning a title shot and losing he dropped his next two fights against big names in Henry Cejudo and John Moraga. A win his last time out sent Ben Nguyen out of the promotion.

Case for Pantoja: The Cannibal is a very dangerous fighter. Of his twenty wins, eight are by submission and six of those are RNCs. He has one of the best backpacks in the division and can be a nightmare to scrape off you. His stumbles have come to wrestlers.

The Play: This is a great fight to target as it’s likely to hit the ground and have plenty of grappling. Can Pantoja capitalize while it’s on the feet? Probably. He also needs to get the fight back standing, which he’s done. I’ll favor him in my pool.

Case for Griffin: He’s a quality boxer who ends up in too many decisions lately. He’s faced stiff UFC competition, so take his 2-4 record with the promotion with a grain of salt.

Case for Imadaev: An 8-0 record with 8 KO’s shows what Imadaev’s about. He’s untested, though.

The Play: Griffin has dealt with brawlers before and come out victorious. Imadaev is making a big jump and has to be considered the dog. His power is still scary and you shouldn’t ignore him totally.

Case for Salmon: By most accounts, Salmon should be undefeated with one suspect decision loss coming in the RFA. He’s had a hard time getting to the Octagon since a DWTNCS win in 2017. Bettors remember him to the tune of 91% of public money coming down on Salmon.

Case for Taha: His issues lately have been to grapplers, where Salmon is more of a striker. Taha has shown decent aggression in his victories.

The Play: Salmon will have to do enough to not lose rounds, as he gets passive at times. His ability to counterstrike should be enough to get the job done here. That could make for a low DK score, however.

Case for Millender: “Curtious” transitioned well to the UFC with three wins before Elizeu Zaleski submitted him. That wrestling hole is a major problem in his game. His striking is excellent, though.

Case for Muhammad: The man’s been busy with eight fights since joining the UFC in 2016. Geoff Neal was too much for him in a decision loss recently. He’s a bit of a generalist with a good all-around game.

The Play: The blueprint to beat Millender is clearly to wrestle him. Muhammad can do that. He doesn’t have any submissions and only four KO’s so this could be a bit of a boring affair.

Case for Jackson: Debuting on short notice against Ricky Simon was particularly cruel, though he showed well in that loss. The UFC showed how highly they think of Jackson and matched him with another gritty wrestler in Brian Kelleher who he walked through. Jackson’s going to make waves at 135.

Case for Soukhamthath: The talent hasn’t matched the performance from Souk. His fight IQ is poor, to say the least. He’s still a dangerous striker and not lost on the mat.

The Play: Jackson is being groomed and given a very winnable fight with a name. He should score well with a game opponent like Soukhamthath, as well. He’s an enormous favorite for good reason and money is coming in on him despite long odds.

Case for Mueller: She’s a tough fighter that can do a bit of everything. Muller’s also more seasoned than her 5-1 record indicates.

Case for Botelho: Winning six of seven by KO is saying something for any women’s division. Her UFC career hasn’t matched the potential we expected despite going 2-1.

The Play: This should be a fun scrap. Botelho probably gets the better of exchanges and has a shot to earn the knockout.

Case for Davis: “Killer B” has one gear and that’s throwing volume without much power behind it. We need to take his UFC stats with a grain of salt as his two UFC wins are over Austin Arnett and Steven Peterson, neither of which offer any striking defense. His three UFC losses have been to fighters that wrestled. He’s also dropping down a weight class, for some reason.

Case for Costa: He wings punches and kicks with little deception. He can also eat a shot. With only four pro fights we don’t have a ton to go on.

The Play: Both fighters are capable of surviving big punches. Davis will easily outpace Costa. Unless Costa can surprise Davis, or the weight cut hurts Davis’ chin, Costa’s going to lose a decision. The volume Davis can produce should score well.

Cash Plays:

Holloway/Poirier or Adesanya/Gastelum stack, Jouban, Muhammad, Davis

The lightweight title fight is my preferred stack. Jouban, Davis, Muhammad are also safer bets.

GPP Plays:

Two of the four ME fighters, Turner or Frevola, Pantoja or Reis, Botelho, Anders

The most popular foundation will be Holloway+Gastellum so there’s an easy way to differentiate with their opponents. Other good fights to target are Turner/Frevola or Pantoja/Reis.

Favorite Bets: Combo bet of Holloway -210 and Poirier ITD +287, Anders -190, Jouban -120,

Favorite Props: Krylov ITD +149, Turner ITD +135, Davis via DEC +219, Muhammad via DEC +160.

Live Dogs: Poirier, Gastelum, Frevola, Reis, Millender