UFC Fight Night 147: Till vs. Masvidal

We’re looking at an overseas fight night card this weekend. That means two things. Lineup lock will be in the middle of the day and there will be some fighters no one is that familiar with. I’m deploying a new style for the breakdowns with that in mind. You’ll see a case for each fighter and how I’m handling them in my ownership pool.

Case for Till: He’s nicknamed the Gorilla for a reason. Till is a massive welterweight. That’s given plenty of people trouble. He has plenty of knockout power and a solid chin, despite getting knocked down and finished by Tyron Woodley.

Case for Masvidal: There aren’t many dudes as tough as Masvidal.

The plays: The numbers for Till aren’t great. He relies on his size and being stronger than opponents. The problem is Masvidal has been KO’d once in 45 fights. It’s an uphill climb for Till to win a decision against a busier fighter, though being in his home country helps.

Neither fighter likely has the output to make a great stack, but there’s some slight opportunity for it if Till wins a wild fight.

Case for Edwards: “Rocky” Edwards is tough anywhere the fight goes. He’s a good wrestler and an adept striker who wins his share of decisions. Quality victories over Donald Cerone, Bryan Barberena, and Vincente Luque bear out how hard he is to land on.

Case for Nelson: Gunnar’s hype train gets occasional derailed when he leaves his hands down and uses his face as his striking defense. When he remembers to cover up and deploy excellent wrestling he often finds a submission. Nelson has defeated his share of quality foes as well.

The plays: Edwards will look to keep this fight standing. He has the tools to do it, even if Nelson lands some takedowns. If that happens, I don’t see Gunnar matching his striking and losing a decision.

Case for Oezdemir: Basically he’s going to earn a fast knockout or gas trying. At least that was the result in his last fight. He might not be much more than a resume builder for contenders going forward.

Case for Reyes: “The Devastator” is an exceptional athlete, combining power and speed that most other humans just can’t match. He’s undefeated and clearing every hurdle put in front of him. I have some minor concerns that he didn’t put OSP away early when he had him on the ropes. He still made another great athlete look futile in that fight, though.

The plays: As much as I’m squarely on Reyes here, there’s concern with how capable a finisher Oezdemir is. Reyes would be wise to mix in a heavy dose of wrestling, since anytime they’re on the feet Volkan’s a danger. This could be the first time we see Reyes chin squarely tested.

Case for Wood: An up and coming British prospect, Wood is 2-0 in the UFC. His salary overrates him a bit in a tough test. He’s well round with finishing ability, though.

Case for Quinonez: Quinonez is a tough fighter. He makes up for deficiencies in skill with a gritty and smart fight plan. He isn’t a big threat to finish Wood here.

The plays: Wood makes sense as the top-priced fighter if you can fit him, but that’s never easy. We’re going to find out if Wood’s fight-ending ways can carry over to some a tough as Quinonez.

Case for Roberts: Another Brit on his home turf. Roberts has delivered and received some remarkable KO’s. He’s never faced a decorated grappler like Silva, which will be interesting. A 57% takedown defense is a concern there.

Case for Silva: Injuries robbed Silva of a long stretch in the Octagon. He returned against a contender in Nordine Taleb and won. If he’s healthy he’s a handful with wrestling and jiu-jitsu.

The plays: Striker vs. Grappler, who can impose their will? It’s typically the grappler and Silva’s a good one. Roberts live for KO in any fight, but Silva has faced his share of strong strikers.

Case for Marshman: We have a classic capable striker without much upward trajectory in Marshman. He can beat fringe talent but will struggle against solid fighters.

Case for Phillips: “The Welsh Wrecking Machine” has a very narrow fight path. He will keep coming for the knockout until he gets it or gets submitted trying. Only one of his 30 fights have seen the scorecards.

The plays: Marshman will be in dangerous waters from the get-go. Given the utter lack of takedown defense for Phillips, it would be smart for Marshman to forgo his striking base and try to grapple. He has no takedowns in five UFC fights, however. This is an excellent fight to target. Someone is earning a finish, possibly in spectacular fashion.

Case for Allen: A 4-0 UFC record is nothing to sneeze at. Those have been close fights but it’s good to see Allen prevail through adversity. He’s a threat to submit opponents with two of those four wins coming via sub.

Case for Rinaldi: He’s a solid athlete and an annoying opponent. If you don’t fight smart Rinaldi can get the better of you. He also has a very live submission game.

The plays: Both are capable of locking in a submission. The scales tip Allen’s way for me with a win over quality grappler Mads Burnell. The odds are a tad high on Allen, but he’s a useful mid-range name.

Case for Diakiese: An explosive fighter who hasn’t been able to parlay that into continued success. An 0-3 UFC record isn’t as bad as it sounds. He’s a live dog with his athleticism, but Duffy is better everywhere the fight can go.

Case for Duffy: As long as he’s crisp coming off of a layoff this fight is Duffy’s to take. He’s a former boxer and solid wrestler. He’s also tough as nails going the distance with Dustin Poirier in a war.

The plays: If you’re in need someone at Diakiese’s price for a GPP lineup it’s not like he’s drawing dead. Duffy should deal with him handily here, though. A lower output makes Duffy more of a cash play.

Case for Negumereanu: A 9-0 prospect who dominated the Romanian circuit. Not a wasteland, but certainly not the UFC or even the LFA. He’s finished every fight by the early second round.

Case for Safarov: Much like Negumereanu, Safarov was coming into the UFC 8-0 before dropping two straight fights. The loses were to Gian Villante and Tyson Pedro. UFC vets, but not elite fighters. That he couldn’t figure out Villante’s remedial striking is a major concern.

The plays: I have no interest in Safarov unless you’re building 50+lineups. Negumereanu is likely to come away with a finish. It’s his debut, so not without risk, but he’s a sizeable favorite.

Case for Breese: Tommy Breese has some nasty standup. He schooled an overmatched Daniel Kelly in his Octagon return last May.

Case for Heinisch: A debut win over Cezar Ferreira has Heinisch looking to make waves at middleweight. He stuck with his wrestling against a super solid fellow wrestler in that one. That’s what he needs to do here.

The plays: This fight plays out one of two ways. Heinisch stays busy with wrestling and keeps Breese on his back or Breese likely takes him apart on the feet. I like a fair bit of both fighters.

UPDATED (10:54am ET) - Tom Breese had to pull out of the fight due to health concerns. No details yet as to what exactly is wrong.

Case for Henry: People tend to underestimate Henry. There’s reason for it, though he’s continued to defy his doubters. Holes in his defenses have been covered up by finishes in the past.

Case for Ige: There are no surprises in the octagon with Ige. He wants to grind on you with high paced wrestling. A great gas tank can only get you so far, though. The line continues tipping in Ige’s favor making him a value.

The plays: Does Ige have enough offense to keep Henry at bay? Probably. I don’t love the play since he’ll be a chalky value facing a live finisher. That screams pivot to me.

Case for McCann: A plus boxer with solid defense. McCann should cruise here without too many threats in play from her opponent. She’s become a much bigger favorite since the pricing came out. Another chalky odds value.

Case for Cachoeira: She was demolished by Valentia Shevchenko, understandably. Maybe she’s a better fighter than that result indicates.

The plays: I like McCann as a value better than Ige. She’s in less danger and is a few hundred more, meaning a lower likely ownership. Cachoeira isn’t in play for me.

Case for Grundy: A gritty wrestler with a decorated amateur career. He may have trouble translating raw wrestling into MMA prowess.

Case for Narimani: “The Smiler” is no slouch of a wrestler himself. He generally leans on it. It will be interesting to see if he can be effective against another quality wrestler. He isn’t the most aggressive fighter, either.

The plays: I’ll back Narimani as the pick since we don’t know what Grundy will look like at this level yet. It could be a slow paced, grinding affair, however. I don’t love Narimani at the price.

Cash Plays:

Reyes, McCann, Ige, Duffy, Till-Masvidal or Edwards-Nelson stack.

You can stack the main event or Edwards-Nelson if you want a safer floor. You can also build a solid mid-range line.

GPP Plays:

Negumereanu, Phillips, Heinisch, Henry, Silva, Oezdemir - With Heinisch OUT, pivot to V. Oezdemir