UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. Velasquez

For the first time in what feels like a while, we have a really solid UFC card on tap this weekend. It’s happening on Sunday, which isn’t unheard of but seems to indicate that ESPN wants it’s new MMA property to offset the loss of NFL viewership. It’s a natural fit. The UFC brass made sure they brought a solid lineup to the Worldwide Leader for the flagship channel debut. Be sure to note lineups lock at 5:30 PM ET with early prelims, despite the ESPN start time of 7:00.

We’re finally getting Cain Velasquez back in the octagon. He’s been rehabbing a back injury for two plus years. Prior to that, he was the man that was destined to rule the heavyweight division for an age. His blueprint to success has been to outwork his opponent with wrestling and dirty boxing, cause them to tire, and turn up the volume some more. There are legitimate concerns about how close to 100% he is at this point between being 36 and having a list of nagging injuries throughout his career.It doesn’t take much analysis to break down Francis Ngannou. He’s big, with otherworldly power, and generally aims to KO you with every punch he throws. Stipe Miocic exposed a glaring weakness to smart wrestling in their fight.

This fight comes down to a pretty simple question. Can Velasquez avoid the power shots of Ngannou long enough to deploy his wrestling? If he does it efficiently like Miocic, he likely scores a TKO. If he’s not wary enough of Ngannou’s bombs like Curtis Blaydes, he goes night-night. I’m leaning heavily toward Cain having little trouble putting on a wrestling clinic.

James Vick $8000 vs. Paul Felder $8200

13-2-0 15-4-0

3 KO/TKO, 5 Subs 10 KO/TKO, 1 Subs

Loss Streak: 1 Win Streak:

Odds: -120 +100

James Vick has a straight forward gameplan. Stick and move, utilizing his reach to keep opponents on the outside. He’s not afraid to capitalize on a submission attempt if it presents itself. His length makes him dangerous there. The line has flipped and we’re getting Vick at an odds value.

This must be the night of the singular fighter because Felder isn’t a very complicated break down either. He’s got the heart of a brawler inside a Muay Thai base, with a questionable fight IQ. He has one gear, full speed ahead.

As much as I’m no James Vick fan, I’m all over him as a dog in this one. He’ll play his usual game of striking from distance and doing his best to avoid nasty exchanges. His height and reach advantage will allow him to do it. Felder has a puncher’s chance, but he’s no Justin Gaethje. Felder is reckless, where Gaethje is merely fearless.

Courtney Casey $7000 vs. Cynthia Calvillo $9200 

8-6-0 7-1-0

3 KO/TKO, 3 Subs 2 KO/TKO, 3 Subs

Win Streak: 1 Win Streak: 1

Odds: +275 -335

The UFC wants Cortney Casey to be a thing. She’s big for the division, with power. They’ve thrown her in with plenty of top ten names, she just hasn’t beat many of them. Two split decision losses to Felice Herrig and Michelle Waterson could indicate the fights were closer than her record indicates.

Cynthia Calvillo was ready to launch into the upper echelon of the division until Carla Esparza took a decision off of her. Esparza is a former champ with a great sprawl. It’s a fight that Calvillo surely learned from. She got back to her submission ways the last time out against a very tough Poliana Botelho.

Casey doesn’t have much business in there with Calvillo and the odds indicate it. Her toughness is about the only attribute she can lean on in this one. That’s not anywhere near enough. Cavillo lands 53% of her takedowns and Casey defends them at an abysmal 24%. Calvillo by submission here.

Alex Caceres $6900 vs. Kron Gracie $9300 

14-11-0 4-0-0

3 KO/TKO, 5 Subs 0 KO/TKO, 4 Subs

Win Streak: 1 Win Streak: 4

Odds: +250 -300

Sporting one of the great MMA nicknames of Bruce Leeroy, Alex Caceres matches that funky monicker with a fun fighting style. He has striking and jiu-jitsu chops with solid cardio. What he lacks is a consistent UFC track record, going 9-11 since joining the promotion 2011.

Kron Gracie may be a UFC newcomer, but he’s from the royal family of BJJ. If he gets a hold of an opponent the deer-in-headlights look comes quickly for them. You better be quick with the tap if you want to leave with your limbs intact. Gracie’s coming off of a voluntary two year MMA layoff. That could lead to rust, but he was definitely grappling in his time off.

Gracie likely needs to pull guard to get this fight where he wants it. Caceres may be able to avoid that when he’s fresh. Once fatigue sets in mistakes happen. Kron does not need much of an opening to wrap his opponent up like a python. There’s some risk in any UFC debut, but a 30-year-old Gracie family member isn’t a normal debut.

Vincente Luque $9400 vs. Bryan Barberena $6800

14-6-1 14-5-0

7 KO/TKO, 6 Subs 10 KO/TKO, 2 Subs

Win Streak: 3 Win Streak:

Odds: +350 -440

Take my Vincente Luque love with a grain of salt. I’ve long been a fan. For good reason though. All seven of his UFC victories have been finishes. His two losses were in his debut and then to contender Leon Edwards. Luque has knockout power and a dangerous submission game.

Bryan Barberena is just a guy. He might be a tough JAG, but doesn’t excel at much else. His high output is sabotaged by 49% striking defense.

Barberena is a lamb to the slaughter here. He’s not afraid of a good scrap, and that’s plays right into a juicy finish by the Silent Assasin. If Barberena’s toughness holds up for three rounds he should also have forced a solid output from Luque. There’s safety in Luque as the most expensive fighter of the night.

Andre Fili $7400 vs. Myles Jury $8800

18-6-0 17-3-0

8 KO/TKO, 3 Subs 8 KO/TKO, 5 Subs

Loss Streak: 1 Loss Streak: 1

Odds: +125 -145

Myles Jury was a highly touted prospect. His hype train lost steam a few fights ago, but he’s still a solid technician. Against better opponents, he’s been found wanting. His BJJ is also solid.

Andre Fili is a character. From funky hair to unrealized potential he has his share of detractors. His UFC career has generally followed a path of never overachieving. A split decision loss to Michale Johnson is as close as he’s come to beating a big name.

Jury being this much of a favorite is a head scratcher for me. Both fighters have disappointed in the past. Fili is capable of hanging with Jury on the feet and can possibly take the fight to a place that makes Jury quit. He’s looked disinterested in losses before. I like the dog here slightly due to his salary and odds.

Jimmie Rivera $8300 vs. Aljamain Sterling $7900

22-2-0 16-3-0

4 KO/TKO, 2 Subs 2 KO/TKO, 7 Subs

Win Streak: 1 Win Streak: 2

Odds: -140 +120

Just about the only person Jimmie Rivera hasn’t been able to come out ahead against is top contender Marlon Moraes. He’s not a prolific finisher, but he’s relentless. Taking a decision win off of the lighting fast John Dodson in his last fight speaks volumes.

Aljamain Sterling has had a curious UFC run. His only losses are to some of the divisions best. The wins have come against middling competition, though. He sports plus wrestling with a solid submission game.

What a fight this should be. Two very solid guys with multiple paths to victory. It’s a huge test for both. A key component will be whether Rivera’s 100% takedown defense holds up against the best wrestler he’s faced. I lean ever so slightly Rivera’s way, but the winner of this fight is likely to be on winning lineups, so mix in both if you can.

Benito Lopez $7100 vs. Manny Bermudez $9100

9-0-0 13-0-0

3 KO/TKO, 2 Subs 1 KO/TKO, 10 Subs

Win Streak: 9 Win Streak: 13

Odds: + -

Manny Bermudez has been brought along slowly, and rightfully so. His striking is far from a weapon and he’s playing catch up in the most dangerous ring out there. His jiu-jitsu is phenom level.

We haven’t seen Benito Lopez in some time. He’s a funky striker with a west coast flare. A high output in recent fights has shown some stamina issues for him. It will be interesting to see what areas he’s made strides in with a year in between his last fight.

I’m coming at this fight from a different angle. Bermudez’s only tool is his submission game, albeit an amazing tool. IF Lopez can take that away he is left with little to lean on. Conversely, Lopez has some grappling in his bag and the striking will be there since they at least start on their feet. One of these prospects will get their first L Sunday. I’d favor Bermudez straight up, but getting big odds and a low salary on Lopez has me pulling the trigger on him as well.

Update: Manny Bermudez: Bermudez missed weight by four pounds. It's a lot of weight for a guy that isn't all that built. I worry this could be related to a training injury. 

Ashlee Evans-Smith $7300 vs. Andrea Lee $8900 

6-3-0 9-2-0

3 KO/TKO, 0 Subs 2 KO/TKO, 4 Subs

Win Streak: 1 Win Streak: 5

Odds: + -

Despite her wrestling base, Ashlee Evans-Smith has a superb striking output. That perhaps has come at the price of her wrestling, though, with only a 27% takedown rate.

Andrea Lee hasn’t had the smoothest start to her UFC career. She’s only had one fight go through on three attempts. That’s unfortunate for us, because she’s got the makings of a star. “KGB” put in her dues in solid minor promotions, but needs to prove it at the highest level.

A great matchup here. Both women are solid strikers. Lee has shown improvement in defensive wrestling, so there’s a good chance this is a kickboxing match. That gives Lee a slight edge, but expect a competitive fight. It could even be a sneaky stack in cash.

Scott Holtzman $8500 vs. Nik Lentz $7700

12-2-0 31-9-2

4 KO/TKO, 2 Subs 8 KO/TKO, 11 Subs

Win Streak: 3 Win Streak: 1

Odds: -170 +150

Scott Holtzman is on a nice 3-fight win streak. He’s made solid strides as a striker. He could be a late bloomer given his late start as a professional fighter.

For a wrestler, Nik Lentz could be better at, well, wrestling. Only landing 35% of his takedowns while defending them at a subpar 44% isn’t a strength. He’s hung around the UFC as a decent gatekeeper.

Holtzman is getting a hurdle to clear here. If he can’t handle Lentz, his upward mobility is shot. I can’t see Lentz succeeding where a better wrestler in Alan Patrick couldn’t. Holtzman’s wrestling is improving and he has the advantage on the feet. Not a great bargain at the price, but fine if you need someone in that range.

Jessica Penne $8400 vs. Jodie Esquibel $7800

12-6-0 6-4-0

2 KO/TKO, 7 Subs 1 KO/TKO, 0 Subs

Loss Streak: 3 Loss Streak: 2

Odds: -140 +120

If the UFC had an atomweight, Jessica Penne would be a top contender. It did her career no favors running the gauntlet of Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Jessica Andrade for back to back losses. She’s still a good grappler with submission chops, she just won’t be muscling up either of those ladies. It’s been over a year since her last fight.

Jodie Esquibel is still looking for her first UFC victory. Losing to Karolina Kowalkiewicz can be forgiven. A loss to Jessica Aguilar is more concerning. Her striking hasn’t stood up in the UFC,

Both women are slightly undersized for the division. That makes Penne the favorite. There are concerns over the wear Penne has taken at age 36, but the fight is hers to lose on paper. I’m more interested in her as a pivot for multiple lineup builders.

Update: Fight cancelled due to injury. 

Renan Barao $7500 vs. Luke Sanders $8700

36-7-0 12-3-0

8 KO/TKO, 15 Subs 6 KO/TKO, 2 Subs

Loss Streak: 3 Loss Streak: 1

Odds: + -

Renan Barao is another former champ who’s fallen in tough times. He’s 2-5 since T.J. Dillashaw rocked his world and took his belt. Coming up short against the lesser competition each time out has many people doubting Barao. Dillashaw is the only man to ever knock him out in a 41 fight career. He’s never been submitted. That keeps me interested in backing him.

The stats on Sanders are all over the place. He beat the doors of Iuri Alcantara for a round plus before getting submitted, so his striking output looks great until you exclude that fight. A 2-3 UFC record with the only victories coming over journeymen isn’t encouraging. He does sport some power in his hands.

This one shapes up to be a contest of who can undermine themselves the least. Sanders might be one of the many superior athletes that just couldn’t hack it in the UFC. Barao at least looks like he still wants to fight. The Baron’s submission chops are also being underestimated here. We’ve seen how clueless Sanders can be when some gets their hooks into him.

Update: Barao missed weight by three pounds. Somewhat concerning as it could indicate a lack of commitment to MMA at this point. He's missed weight in the past though.

Alexandra Albu $8600 vs. Emily Whitmire $7600

7-0-0 3-2-0

1 KO/TKO, 1 Subs 0 KO/TKO, 0 Subs

Win Streak: 3 Win Streak: 1

Odds: + -

Alexandra Albu is following a schedule of fighting every two years. She has, let’s say, outside interests. When in the ring, she keeps her foot on the gas. That comes at the expense of striking defense. She is small yet strong, as evidenced by excellent physical shape.

We don’t have a ton to go on from Whitmire. She’s worked with Meisha Tate and employs a similarly sound strategy. This fight will tell us a good amount about her.

A clash of styles can be tough to predict, and that’s no different here without much history on either fighter. In a vacuum, I’d back Albu’s aggression. The concern is she gasses out and Whitmire takes over with a sharper approach. Another fight for multi-lineup builds as a pivot.

Cash Plays: Velasquez, Vick, Rivera, Luque, Lee-Evans Stack

Cain is a must play for his wrestling and ground and pound. I like to stack in cash but Ngannou brings nothing to the table beside an early KO, which kills the stack. I’ll take a shot on Lee and Evans-Smith putting out high output and some wrestling. A pay down like Fili unlocks Luque. Vick is the best odds value on the card.

GPP Plays: Gracie, Fili, Lopez, Barao, Calvillo

The questions surrounding Cain will temper ownership, so he’s in play here. This is a bit of stars and scrubs with Lopez and Barao helping pay for Kron and Calvillo.

Favorite Bets: Velasquez -155, Vick -120, Fili +125, Lopez +155

Favorite Props: Luque ITD +100, Calvillo by submission +215, Penne by submission +435, Sterling by submission +625

Live Dogs: Fili, Lopez, Barao, Whitmire