UFC Fight Night 144 on ESPN+
The theme of this card in Brazil is close fights. The main event is a rematch of 2017’s competitive bout with the winner promised a shot at the title. There aren’t many significant odds values and only a few fighters that offer inside the distance upside for their price. Focusing on the mid-range is usually smart and it seems doubly wise here. Game theory is also more important than ever on a card where the outcomes are in doubt. Any fighter highlighted in green font is my projected winner.
Raphael Assunção ($7400) vs. Marlon Moraes ($8800)
27-5-0 21-5-1
4 KO/TKO, 10 Subs 10 KO/TKO, 5 Subs
Win Streak: 4 Win Streak: 3
Odds: +145 -165
Raphael Assunção has lurked in the bantamweight shadows for some time now. He isn’t flashy enough to force the UFC into title shots, but he’s been practically perfect in the UFC outside of going 1-1 against division champ T.J. Dillashaw. His grinding style is a nightmare to crack and his counters are sharp.
Marlon “Magic” Moraes has put together a bunch of dazzling UFC finishes since dropping his promotion debut to Assunção. Even in that loss, he showed the ability to land strikes on a tough opponent to catch. His combination of power and speed has bested some of the divisions finest.
Diving right in with the main event, we’ve got a very hard fight to pick. They fought in 2017 to a pretty close decision that went Assunção’s way. That was a three-round fight. This will be a five-round title eliminator. My take is that it’s too tall of a task for Assunção to last 25 minutes deploying his style against Moraes power. That’s just too long to avoid getting caught. Assunção’s submission game is dangerous in its own right, and he could certainly grind out a decision. I’ll roster both fighters split down the middle in 5/10 lineups, but Moraes is my official pick.
José Aldo ($7900) vs. Renato Moicano ($8300)
27-4-0 13-1-1
16 KO/TKO, 1 Subs 0 KO/TKO, 6 Subs
Win Streak: 1 Win Streak: 2
Odds: +115 -135
José Aldo was a pound for pound great right up until Conor McGregor and Max Holloway knocked him down the division ladder. He bounced back last time out with a huge KO win over the tough as nails Jeremy Stephens. His chin was tested in that fight as well and it passed. Aldo’s still UFC royalty.
The UFC showed how highly they think of Renato Moicano by making him the featherweight title fight alternate in December. He’s a submission specialist, but his length is challenging for most in the division. Moicano couples that length with quickness in and out of spots, making him tough to hit. If the fight goes three rounds, he’s capable of approaching 100 strikes.
This fight could very well be a changing of the guard. Aldo isn’t the superman he once was. That said, he’s shown there’s something left in his tank. Moicano won’t find it easy to finish him on the feet or the mat. If Aldo leans into his signature leg kicks and fights his fight he should be able to win one of his last UFC scraps. There’s slightly less meat on the bone with this fight being capped at three rounds, so be cautious if scrolling through peak Aldo’s production in title bouts.
Demian Maia ($8700) vs. Lyman Good ($7500)
25-9-0 20-4-0
3 KO/TKO, 12 Subs 10 KO/TKO, 3 Subs
Loss Streak: 3 Win Streak: 1
Odds: -175 +155
Demian Maia is a world class submission specialist. His striking has come along in a lengthy UFC career. Don’t be fooled by three straight losses on his record. They came to the royalty of the division.
Lyman Good is a bit of a brawler. He looks to trade and eats strikes to give them. In a limited sample, he’s shown good takedown defense.
It speaks volumes that Maia has only been KO’d once for someone who’s only path to victory is a submission. Good is tough, but that’s probably not enough. Maia should win without much trouble if the last three fights didn’t take too much out of him.
Charles Oliveira ($8500) vs. David Teymur ($7700)
25-8-0 8-1-0
6 KO/TKO, 17 Subs 4 KO/TKO, 0 Subs
Win Streak: 3 Win Streak: 8
Odds: -115 -105
No one has more UFC submissions to their name then Charles Oliveira. He’s all action looking to string together takedowns with submissions. There’s some power in his hands, which is a nice throw-in when rostering him.
David Teymur brings excellent Muay Thai striking to bear on opponents at a solid clip. His record lacks notable names, so he’ll be looking to change that Saturday night. Teymur is one of the few odds values.
The ever-frustrating Oliveira gets a troublesome opponent in Teymur. That said, when Oliveira wins, he does so quickly via submission. Here’s hoping his recent focus carries into this fight and it’s another quick win. If not, Teymur could piece him up. It makes sense to own some of both.
Johnny Walker ($9200) vs. Justin Ledet ($7000)
15-3-0 9-1-0
12 KO/TKO, 2 Subs 2 KO/TKO, 5 Subs
Win Streak: 7 Loss Streak: 1
Odds: -210 +175
If mullets won belts, Justin Ledet would be the champ. Alexander Rakic mauled him in his last trip to the octagon, sweet mullet notwithstanding. That showed toughness if nothing else. Many have criticized his drop to light heavyweight where he lost one of the few edges he had in his speed.
Johnny Walker put his length straight to work in his UFC debut against Khalil Rountree, who’s not exactly a defensive stalwart. Nevertheless, it was an impressive performance. Walker is an up and comer with fun tools.
Johnny Blue Label isn’t as savvy as Rakic, but he’s as aggressive. Combined with his size and power it’s likely to be a long night for Ledet. Ledet won’t quit in the ring, though, and that’s a good thing for us. He should absorb enough punishment for Walker to support his price tag. There are reasonable concerns over Walker’s fight IQ, which will be a problem against the wrong opponent. I don’t think Ledet is the guy to exploit that, though.
Livinha Souza ($9100) vs. Sarah Frota ($7100)
12-1-0 9-0-0
2 KO/TKO, 8 Subs 2 KO/TKO, 5 Subs
Win Streak: 3 Win Streak: 9
Odds: -220 +180
I’ll say this about Sarah Frota: she looks the part. This might be too big of a jump in competition after the regional circuit, however. **Frota missed weight by a sizeable seven pounds. Normally missed weight doesn't have much correlation to winning, but Frota is basically an entire weight class away. It's concerning.**
Livinha Souza cut her teeth in the UFC feeder league Invicta FC. She’s fought legit competition and her lone loss was to the stellar Angela Hill. Souza wasted no time swarming Alex Chambers and forcing a finish at 81 seconds in her Octagon debut.
I’ll back the fighter who’s beaten better competition in Souza. This is the rare women’s fight that seems likely to end inside the distance.
Markus Perez ($7300) vs. Anthony Hernandez ($8900)
10-2-0 7-0-0
3 KO/TKO, 4 Subs 2 KO/TKO, 4 Subs
Loss Streak: 1 Win Streak: 7
Odds: +140 -160
Going 1-2 in the UFC may mask Marku Perez’ true talent level. Those two losses were as a late replacement. Perhaps he just needs a full camp to get the win. It could also be that he just doesn’t excel in any one area of MMA.
Anthony Hernandez is returning from a six-month marijuana suspension. He recorded a 40 -second KO on DWTNCS that was changed to a No Contest due to the failed drug test. Including that result, his finish rate a solid seven of nine.
Yet another really hard fight to pick. Perez could just be a cut right below the solid competition he’s faced. We don’t have enough to measure Hernandez’s finishing prowess in his quick rise, either. I’ll stick with Vegas here and back Hernandez. Perez isn’t a bad pay down for the price if you can’t get up to the fighters just above him.
Talia Santos ($8600) vs. Mara Romero Borella ($7600)
15-0-0 11-5-0
10 KO/TKO, 2 Subs 3 KO/TKO, 4 Subs
Win Streak: 15 Loss Streak: 1
Odds: -165 +145
Talia Santos won a decision on DWTNCS behind a solid jab. That 15-0 record is padded with a lot of tomatoes, however. She’s stepping way up competition against Romero Borella.
Mara Romero Borella has some of the best judo in the division. That she barely pushed her wrestling against a superior kickboxer in her loss to Katlyn Chookagian last time out is concerning. Hopefully, she gets back to her strengths and looks to wrestle.
Romero Borella facing another kickboxer is concerning. If she doubles down on striking again I wouldn’t expect a different outcome. That she could bring wrestling points and a possible submission to the table intrigues me at $7600. Santos will land strikes, the output is what will matter. I’ll definitely hedge with some Santos.
Thiago Alves ($7200) vs. Max Griffin ($9000)
22-13-0 14-5-0
12 KO/TKO, 2 Subs 7 KO/TKO, 2 Subs
Loss Streak: 2 Loss Streak: 1
Odds: +170 -200
Thiago Alves is the last of the old guard. He’s from a time where grit was as important as technique. He’s no pushover, but name recognition and the draw he brings in Brazil keep him around at this point.
It was a surprise to some when Max Griffin outclassed Mike Perry, though that win doesn’t sparkle quite the same after some time has passed. Griffin’s a technician, without a ton power.
Loser goes home in this one. Alves doesn’t have a notable UFC win in this decade. Griffin is a quality boxer, but not much else. That’s probably enough to take a decision in this one. Alves is likely to wear some leather on his face through all three rounds. That’s a big price to swallow for a decision win, though.
Junior Albini ($8100) vs. Jair Rozenstruik ($8100)
14-4-0 5-0-0
6 KO/TKO, 6 Subs 4 KO/TKO, 0 Subs
Loss Streak: 2 Win Streak: 5
Odds: -120 +100
What Junior Albini is going to show up this weekend? The finisher or the fish? Eleven of his twelve finishes have come in the first round, but he’s looked lost in two straight fights.
Jair Rozenstruik has a small MMA sample, but a 76-6 kickboxing record. He’s big and strong and has fast hands. His opponents that mix it up tend to go to sleep early on.
The token heavyweight fight on the card is, as usual, a crapshoot. It should not be a long fight, but we’ve seen plenty of big men gas and lean on each other for two more rounds. My lean here is that Albini employs a game plan aimed at getting the fight to the ground and submitting Rozenstruik. Should he fail there, or foolishly try to trade with a world-class kickboxer, it could end poorly for him. I want a good amount of each guy for the likelihood of a first-round finish.
Ricardo Ramos ($8000) vs. Said Nurmagomedov ($8200)
12-1-0 12-1-0
3 KO/TKO, 6 Subs 2 KO/TKO, 3 Subs
Win Streak: 4 Win Streak: 6
Odds: -115 -105
The 12-1 record is a little misleading for Ricardo Ramos. His three UFC wins have been a split decision, a spinning-junk KO, and a decision that some had him losing. He’s a solid prospect, but has perhaps come too far too fast. The line has flipped in his favor, however, making him a rare odds value.
Said Nurmagomedov isn’t a lethal finisher. He makes up for a lack of power with efficiency and plus wrestling. He fights out of a great camp, too. His debut against Justin Scoggins wasn’t amazing, but chalk that up to Scoggins being a solid UFC veteran himself.
As the odds indicate, this is a close call. When in doubt, back the DagFighter. Nurmagomedov could get caught with something creative and be put in danger. That’s hard to bank on, though. I expect a quality decision win behind his kick game, which works at this price.
Magomed Bibulatov ($9400) vs. Rogerio Bontorin ($6800)
14-1-0 14-0-0
2 KO/TKO, 5 Subs 2 KO/TKO, 11 Subs
Loss Streak: 1 Win Streak: 2
Odds: -460 +365
It would be a mistake to hold a KO loss to John Moraga against Magomed Bibulatov. There’s a reason most of the division looks to dodge Moraga. Bibulatov is well rounded, like many Russians, blending wrestling and striking. **Bibulatov missed weight by one pound. Not a concern.**
Rogerio Bontorin is a late replacement. He’s generally regarded as a prospect. Availability was the ability that got him this fight, however.
Bibulatov is too tall a test here. Bontorin will be a game opponent, but he’s the biggest dog on this card for a reason.
Geraldo de Freitas ($8400) vs. Felipe Colares ($7800)
11-4-0 8-0-0
4 KO/TKO, 5 Subs 2 KO/TKO, 5 Subs
Win Streak: 6 Win Streak: 8
Odds: -130 +110
Both of these fighters are UFC newcomers. Neither has a DWTNCS appearance. Both have won belts in minor promotions. There’s just so little we know about them and can project with any confidence. If you’re building one lineup stay away from the fight. Multi-entry builders can’t ignore it altogether since there’s value at both fighter’s prices in a victory. One additional note, Colares has been inactive for 15 months.
Cash plays: Moraes-Assunção or Aldo-Moicano
I’m normally a big fan of stacking main events for cash lineups. Here though, the likely pace might not offer enough scoring for the losing fighter, despite the extra rounds. Unfortunately, there’s little safety elsewhere on the card. All in all, you might be better off playing tournaments for the risk.
GPP Plays: Albini/Rozenstruck, Maia, Oliveira, Aldo
Take your pick of the heavyweights and add one or both of the submission legends. Aldo may have sizeable ownership, so go overweight or underweight on him.
Favorite Bets: Aldo +115, Nurmagomedov +120, Maia -175
Favorite Props: Aldo by KO +730, Romero Borella ITD +350, Albini by Sub +420
Live Dogs: Aldo, Nurmagomedov, Romero Borella, Ledet, Rozenstruik