The promotion is pulling out the stops for UFC 263. Israel Adesanya looks to avenge what some people feel should have been his first loss in a tight win over Marvin Vetori a few years back. He’s also looking to bounce back from dropping his first official MMA loss when he came up short in his bid for the 205 belt. Speaking of close fights, Deiveson Figueiredo rematches with Brandon Moreno after they fought to a draw (albeit thanks to a point deduction to Figgy). Odds are one belt changes hands Saturday night.

Main Event
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Israel Adesanya vs Marvin Vettori9300/6900-Stackability: Safe-255/ +215+175/+525
This was a rematch that both men knew would happen. Adesanya did show he was ready to handle gritty wrestling in his loss to Jan. Meanwhile, Marvin has stepped in with some fairly dangerous fighters and dispatched them with relative ease. It’s a great fight and I can see why you’d want to stack it for Vettori’s low price but plausible paths to victory. I’ll take Izzy to win, though. Marvin just isn’t sharp enough in the striking if he can’t hold his opponent down.
      
Expensive
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Jamahal Hill9400Paul CraigSafe-275-135
Hill’s overconfidence is the only thing that scares me here. Craig is tricky, and long, but a fairly bad fighter by UFC standards. He’s wooden, entirely hittable, and lost by KO his fair share despite a decent chin. I’m still leaning into the dangerous young gun in my lineups.
Deiveson Figueiredo9100Brandon MorenoSomewhat-Safe-210+125
I wonder what Figgy’s ownership is going to look like. Obviously high, but with other five-rounders on the card and the closeness of the first fight he could be slightly discounted. It’s going to be an all action fight, the preferred cash stack, and just straight up fun.
Leon Edwards9500Nate DiazSomewhat-Safe-600+110
Edwards holds the advantage everywhere other than sheer gutsy-ness. If Nate can’t force a pace Leon may take his time the way we’ve seen in many of his fights. Without pace or a quick finish there’s cause for concern. This fight is a five round non-title fight, however. Any five round win can be solid.
Movsar Evloev9200Hakeem DawoduModerate-230+320
This is an interesting test of Evloev’s striking. He seems more interested in the standup than wrestling lately. Dawodu has decent enough takedown defense, anyway. Baring a surprise finish this is a tough price to hit value for Evloev.
      
Mid-Range
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Carlos Felipe8700Jake CollierModerate-165+220
Felipe gets another nice matchup in the HW division. He loves swinging leather and has enough gas to do it typically. Collier has had an odd return at heavyweight. He’s looked bad and out of shape, good and in shape, and now in shape again. The odds are still against him to see the final bell.
Steven Peterson8400Chase HooperSomewhat-Risky-120+305
Ocho is scrappy, if nothing else. That’s enough to get it done against Hooper if he doesn’t find the rabbit in his hat and submit you. Peterson missed weight, however and didn’t look great on the scale. If he runs out of gas early he will get sloppy and could get subbed.
Joanne Calderwood8200Lauren MurphySomewhat-Risky-145+400
Jojo looked like she was slowing down a little bit in her last fight. Murphy is gritty and isn’t going to be an easy out. She would need to land a ton of leg kicks to be worthwhile in a decision win.
Belal Muhammad9000Demian MaiaSomewhat-Risky-225+310
It’s never been hard to out-box Maia. He’s in his twilight years of MMA. If you stay off the mat and pressure him it’s not a complicated formula to winning. Managing to keep a person off you that desperately wants to grab hold of a limb is easier said than done, however.
Matt Frevola8900Terrance McKinneyRiskyLoading...Loading...
I have, and probably always will, under rate Matt Frevola in the UFC. He gets by on heart alone at times. That lack of talent is just always a concern for me. He’s the vet here, though. In a fight that should feature some wrestling the winner should be valuable.
Eryk Anders8600Darren StewartRisky-150+210
Anders finally looked good in a fight against Stewart last time out and then kneed him while downed and got DQ’d. It’s probably too optimistic to hope that Anders can repeat the good part of that performance. Worth hedging on, though.
Pannie Kianzad8800Alexis DavisRisky-200+565
Kianzad has been steadily getting better each fight. She’s well-rounded and has a little power. Davis is mostly washed up but still has a trick or two left as we saw in her win over Sabina Mazo. It would take a finish to make Pannie worth rostering, imo.
      
Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Brandon Moreno7100Deiveson FigueiredoSomewhat-Risky+175+565
Moreno uses wrestling, pace, and a cast iron chin to push most opponents to the breaking point. He was close to doing it to Figs in their draw. Figgy says he was sick fight week but that’s probably just the hellacious weight cut. Which he went through for this one again. Moreno is very live as long as his chin holds up.
Brad Riddell7700Drew DoberSomewhat-Risky+125+400
Riddell has the edge in the striking, which should make him the favorite. Dober can wrestle but doesn’t really look to. So it carries some risk but Riddell has been working his grappling each camp. I see him winning a fun fight here as the dog.
Terrance McKinney6900Matt FrevolaSomewhat-Risky+205#N/A
I’m very interested in McKinney. He’s a strong wrestler with solid power. He lost to Sean Woodson on DWCS off a flying knee KO, which is fluky. On the regional scene he followed that up with a loss to Darrick Minner but has racked up three straight KOs since. Frevola has some tricks but I also think he’s a generalist in a bad way. McKinney is absolutely live. The biggest concern is how much gas he’ll have in the tank after taking the fight on short notice.
Demian Maia7200Belal MuhammadRisky+185+345
Maia is dangerous because of his BJJ, which goes without saying, but also because it’s his only real path. He’ll strike where he needs to but it’s never comfortable. Belal is a striker primarily so that’s a problem if Maia can’t take him down. If he does, though, it should be quick work to find the sub.
Luigi Vendramini7900Fares ZiamRisky+110+200
Luigi returned from a layoff with a very nice KO of the very mediocre Jessin Ayari. Ziam is a bit more of a challenge but still a pretty green fighter who could do with more seasoning outside the Octagon.
Chase Hooper7800Steven PetersonRisky+100+170
I want to trust Hooper a little bit here. It’s just so hard when he let’s people beat the hell out of him. Maybe let is the wrong word but he gets dominated too often on the feet. I’m banking on Peterson being exhausted from a bad cut and not one to be all that careful about getting caught in a sub.
Darren Stewart7600Eryk AndersRisky+130+305
Maybe Stewart fights with some more urgency after getting whooped in the first round of their last fight prior to the DQ. He’s a heavy hitter and it’s dangerous to assume the fight goes the same way.
Nate Diaz6700Leon EdwardsRisky+450+790
Diaz is the king of the Homer Simpson strategy. You gas throwing so many strikes at him and somehow he’s still there. It’s a longshot at this point in his career but worth a mention as some see Edwards as a bit soft.
Draftkings Core Plays

Top Tier

Jamahal Hill$9,400
Deiveson Figueiredo$9,100

Mid Tier

Carlos Felipe$8,700
Brad Riddell$7,700
Value TierTerrance McKinney$6,900
   
   
Fanduel Core Plays

Top Tier

Leon Edwards$22
Deiveson Figueiredo$21

Mid Tier

Pannie Kianzad$19
Chase Hooper$15
Value TierTerrance McKinney$9

Favorite Bets: Hill -275, Riddell +125, McKinney +205

Favorite Props: Maia ITD +345, Felipe ITD +220

Live Dogs: Vettori, Moreno, Riddell, Maia, Hooper, Stewart, Vendramini, Diaz

Stats & Picks: 

Israel AdesanyavsMarvin Vettori
$9,300DFS Salary$6,900
Record: 20-1-0RecordRecord: 17-4-1
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-255Vegas Odds+215
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Deiveson FigueiredovsBrandon Moreno
$9,100DFS Salary$7,100
Record: 20-1-1RecordRecord: 18-5-2
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-210Vegas Odds+175
7/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Leon EdwardsvsNate Diaz
$9,500DFS Salary$6,700
Record: 18-3-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 21-12-0
 Knockouts5 KO/TKO (25%)
 Subs

11 SUBMISSIONS (55%)

-600Vegas Odds+450
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Demian MaiavsBelal Muhammad
$7,200DFS Salary$9,000
Record: 28-10-0Record

Record: 18-3-0 (1 NC)

3 KO/TKO (11%)Knockouts 
14 SUBMISSIONS (50%)Subs 
+185Vegas Odds-225
5/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Paul CraigvsJamahal Hill
$6,800DFS Salary$9,400
Record: 14-4-1RecordRecord: 8-0-0 (1 NC)
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
+235Vegas Odds-275
2/10Lineup Pool28/10
 0 
Drew DobervsBrad Riddell
$8,500DFS Salary$7,700
Record: 23-10-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 9-1-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-145Vegas Odds+125
4/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Eryk AndersvsDarren Stewart
$8,600DFS Salary$7,600
Record: 13-5-0 (1 NC)Record

Record: 12-6-0 (2 NC)

8 KO/TKO (62%)Knockouts 
1 SUBMISSIONS (8%)Subs 
-150Vegas Odds+130
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Lauren MurphyvsJoanne Calderwood
$8,000DFS Salary$8,200
Record: 14-4-0RecordRecord: 15-5-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
+125Vegas Odds-145
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Movsar EvloevvsHakeem Dawodu
$9,200DFS Salary$7,000
Record: 14-0-0RecordRecord: 12-1-1
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-230Vegas Odds+190
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Pannie KianzadvsAlexis Davis
$8,800DFS Salary$7,400
Record: 15-5-0RecordRecord: 20-10-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-200Vegas Odds+170
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Matt FrevolavsTerrance McKinney
$8,900DFS Salary$6,900
Record: 8-2-1RecordRecord: 10-3-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
Loading...Vegas Odds+205
3/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Chase HoopervsSteven Peterson
$7,800DFS Salary$8,400
Record: 10-1-1RecordRecord: 18-9-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
+100Vegas Odds-120
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Fares ZiamvsLuigi Vendramini
$8,300DFS Salary$7,900
Record: 11-3-0RecordRecord: 9-1-0
5 KO/TKO (45%)Knockouts 
4 SUBMISSIONS (36%)Subs 
-130Vegas Odds+110
3/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Carlos FelipevsJake Collier
$8,700DFS Salary$7,500
Record: 10-1-0RecordRecord: 12-5-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-165Vegas Odds+145
6/10Lineup Pool3/10