A three title fight night is on tap with UFC 261. Fans will be back in the stands and all fighters have made weight. Everything is lining up for a very exciting card. You’ll need to land on the right fighters from two groups: the five round winners and the chinese debutants. That’s going to be tricky. Let leverage be your friend when you can’t make a perfect read on the outcome.
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Kamaru Usman vs Jorge Masvidal | 9400/6800 | - | Stackability: Safe | -440/ 350 | +270/+470 |
| Masvidal gets a deserving rematch for the belt after taking a short notice title fight in Abu Dhabi. Can a full camp make a difference for him? Maybe but it’s more likely he just doesn’t possess the skillset to defeat Usman. That’s not a knock, no one has come up that has it yet. The fight isn’t likely to end inside the distance so it’s a safer stack from that perspective. The pace may be measured, however. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 9500 | Jessica Andrade | Somewhat-Safe | -450 | +130 |
| Valentina is facing maybe the most dangerous challenger but also the most beatable. I don’t see Andrade having enough wrestling success to control the fight and her march forward haymakers are ripe for the crisp counter striking of Bullet. I see Valentina picking Andrade apart until it ends early. As the most expensive fighter she may also offer some leverage. | |||||
| Zhang Weili | 9000 | Rose Namajunas | Somewhat-Safe | -185 | +225 |
| Zhang is the least expensive champion of the three. She’s facing the most accomplished challenger in Namajunas. I think Rose does win some rounds and will certainly be the more technical striker. In a five round fight Zhang has too much opportunity to bully Rose and impose her will, however. I don’t know that Rose can survive 25 minutes without an immense discrepancy in the striking and just can’t see that. | |||||
| Rong Zhu | 9100 | Kazula Vargas | Moderate | -245 | -115 |
| The most expensive of the Chinese debutants, Zhu is also the youngest at 21. He’s been fighting professionally for 5 years with 20 bouts on his record, though. Fighting Vargas isn’t a cakewalk but he’s a very beatable fighter. Zhu will need to impress to hit value at this price. | |||||
| Dwight Grant | 9200 | Stefan Sekulic | Moderate | -200 | -105 |
| Grant’s always going to be a DFS fade because of his lack of aggression. That’s confounded by immense power. It makes for tricky handicapping. If the stars align and he finds a first round KO he’s a low-owned boom. If he cruises to a boring decision he may not break 50. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jimmy Crute | 8900 | Anthony Smith | Moderate | -190 | +100 |
| As long as you’re careful about leaving your neck out for a submission fighting Anthony Smith can be easy work. He’s one of the most hittable fighters going and doesn’t have very big power in his strikes at this point. He basically relies on mistakes, often when an opponent is exhausted from beating on him. I don’t see Crute slipping up. Crute’s power is also not the kind you take for 15 minutes. We’ll need the Brute to stay focused and earn the early stoppage for value. | |||||
| Brendan Allen | 8400 | Karl Roberson | Somewhat-Risky | -160 | +140 |
| Allen has been rushing his MMA career and paid for it in spots. He takes a lot of damage when he can’t finish a fight early. His BJJ is lethal when he leans on it. Lately he’s been ignoring it ot his own detriment. That can’t happen against the powerful Roberson. If Allen deploys a grappling approach it could be easy work submitting the kickboxer. If not, things will get messy. | |||||
| Patrick Sabatini | 8800 | Tristan Connelly | Somewhat-Risky | -225 | +245 |
| Sabatini is making his UFC debut. It’s a soft landing spot against the meat and potatoes Connelly. Connelly is also coming off a long layoff due to a spinal fusion and coming down in weight. It smells like a retirement fight to me if the results are discouraging. Sabatini is a well-rounded up and comer. Connelly’s prior durability is the main cause for concern. | |||||
| Uriah Hall | 8300 | Chris Weidman | Somewhat-Risky | 115 | +170 |
| The narrative here is that Hall will have his usual slow start and then have a shot at the third round KO. While that does make sense it’s a dangerous thing to count on. Even if it does materialize third round finishes score less. | |||||
| Danaa Batgerel | 8500 | Kevin Natividad | Risky | -175 | +195 |
| Batgerel has two polar opposite performances in the UFC. He struggled against the very mediocre Heili Alateng and then flash KO’d Guido Cannetti. The Alateng loss is troubling and Cannetti was over the hill. I’m not backing Batgerel until he shows more. He does have power and we saw Natividad badly knocked out in his UFC debut, however. | |||||
| Aori Qileng | 8200 | Jeff Molina | Risky | 100 | +385 |
| You don’t need to be a world beater to get by Molina but we just don’t know what to expect from Aori yet. | |||||
| Randy Brown | 8700 | Alex Oliveira | Risky | -145 | +190 |
| I’m only marginally interested in Brown. He’s got a chance to submit Cowboy if he can wear him down. It’s an expensive price for something with long odds. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Chris Weidman | 7900 | Uriah Hall | Somewhat-Risky | -125 | +325 |
| Weidman should have the early advantage with his wrestling. He’ll need to avoid being knocked out late for the umpteenth time. His cardio was also suspect after coming back down to 185 last fight. It’s risky but he’s a nice line value and grappling points are king. | |||||
| Rose Namajunas | 7200 | Zhang Weili | Somewhat-Risky | 170 | +425 |
| Rose will very likely be the most popular underdog. She’s a former champ and the smoothest striker in the division. It’s probably worth matching with her in cash games. I’m staying away in GPPs since I don’t see her winning by finish and being worth the mouthful of chalk. | |||||
| Jessica Andrade | 6700 | Valentina Shevchenko | Somewhat-Risky | 400 | +505 |
| Andrade is very good at a few things. She’s an excellent power wrestler. She hits very hard. Her pace is a challenge for most fighters to handle. I don’t see any of that confounding Shevchenko. If Valentina does slip up Andrade is one of the few challengers that can make her pay, though. | |||||
| Na Liang | 7600 | Ariane Carnelossi | Somewhat-Risky | 180 | +320 |
| Money has been coming in on Carnelossi and I’m not really sure why. She’s bricked up and swings hard. She also plods forward and gets hit with little defense. We don’t know who Liang is but she has some wrestling credentials and will be the bigger woman. I see potential value at the price if she doesn’t get her head knocked off. | |||||
| Kevin Natividad | 7700 | Danaa Batgerel | Risky | 155 | +435 |
| Another case of recency bias at work here. Natividad looked bad in his debut on short notice, one week after a prior LFA fight. That could all have factored into his sluggish start. I’m interested in him at dog money against someone I see as an equal question mark in Batgerel. Leaning on some grappling would be wise and would also make his DK players happy. | |||||
| Alex Oliveira | 7500 | Randy Brown | Risky | 135 | +330 |
| We never know which Cowboy is going show up to fight. He often lacks focus and conditioning. At his best he’s a dangerous brawler and his long limbs are problematic if it hits the mat. Brown matches him everywhere but experience. If Cowboy’s going to win it might need to be early. | |||||
| Karl Roberson | 7800 | Brendan Allen | Risky | 150 | +185 |
| I don’t have a high opinion of Roberson. That notwithstanding he is a dangerous striker and good athlete. If he stifles Allen’s grappling, or Allen simply opts to brawl, he’s certainly a live dog. I don’t see this fight hitting the scorecards so the winner is probably a must own. | |||||
| Anthony Smith | 7300 | Jimmy Crute | Risky | 175 | +330 |
| Maybe Smith has one more big upset in him before the brain damage forces him into retirement. His length on the mat makes for some sneaky BJJ. Especially when his opponent has emptied the clip on him and exhausts themselves. | |||||
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Zhang Weili | $9,000 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | $9,500 | |
Mid Tier | Jimmy Crute | $8,900 |
| Brendan Allen | $8,400 | |
| Value Tier | Na Liang | $7,600 |
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Valentina Shevchenko | $21 |
| Zhang Weili | $22 | |
Mid Tier | Jimmy Crute | $19 |
| Brendan Allen | $15 | |
| Value Tier | Chris Weidman | $14 |
Favorite Bets: Zhang -190, Crute -190, Liang +180
Favorite Props: Shevchenko ITD +110, Weidman WBD +200, Allen/Roberson UNDER 2.5 -160
Live Dogs: Namajunas, Masvidal, Andrade, Liang, Natividad, Hall, Olivera, Roberson, Sekulic
Stats & Picks:
| Kamaru Usman | vs | Jorge Masvidal |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 18-1-0 | Record | Record: 35-14-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (44%) | Knockouts | 16 KO/TKO (46%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (6%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (6%) |
| -440 | Vegas Odds | 350 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Zhang Weili | vs | Rose Namajunas |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 21-1-0 | Record | Record: 10-4-0 |
| 10 KO/TKO (48%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (11%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (56%) |
| -185 | Vegas Odds | 170 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | vs | Jessica Andrade |
| $9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 20-3-0 | Record | Record: 21-8-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (30%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (38%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (35%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
| -450 | Vegas Odds | 400 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Uriah Hall | vs | Chris Weidman |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 17-9-0 | Record | Record: 15-5-0 |
| 12 KO/TKO (75%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (40%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (6%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (27%) |
| 115 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Anthony Smith | vs | Jimmy Crute |
| $7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 34-16-0 | Record | Record: 12-1-0 |
| 18 KO/TKO (53%) | Knockouts | |
| 13 SUBMISSIONS (38%) | Subs | |
| 175 | Vegas Odds | -190 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 7/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Alex Oliveira | vs | Randy Brown |
| $7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 22-9-1 (2 NC) | Record | Record: 12-4-0 |
| 12 KO/TKO (55%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (23%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
| 135 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Dwight Grant | vs | Stefan Sekulic |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 10-3-0 | Record | Record: 12-3-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (70%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (25%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (50%) |
| -200 | Vegas Odds | 185 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Karl Roberson | vs | Brendan Allen |
| $7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 9-3-0 | Record | Record: 15-4-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (22%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (33%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (44%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (53%) |
| 150 | Vegas Odds | -160 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Patrick Sabatini | vs | Tristan Connelly |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 13-3-0 | Record | Record: 14-6-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (15%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (29%) |
| 9 SUBMISSIONS (69%) | Subs | 9 SUBMISSIONS (64%) |
| -225 | Vegas Odds | 205 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Danaa Batgerel | vs | Kevin Natividad |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 8-2-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (56%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (11%) |
| -175 | Vegas Odds | 155 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Kazula Vargas | vs | Rong Zhu |
| $7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 11-4-0 | Record | Record: 17-3-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (64%) | Knockouts | 11 KO/TKO (65%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (27%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (24%) |
| 205 | Vegas Odds | -245 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Aori Qileng | vs | Jeff Molina |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 18-6-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (28%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (38%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (11%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (50%) |
| 100 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Na Liang | vs | Ariane Carnelossi |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 15-4-0 | Record | Record: 12-2-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (31%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (67%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (54%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) |
| 180 | Vegas Odds | -220 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |