UPDATE: Denny Hamlin is starting from the rear but will be scored from P1 for DFS. He is strictly a super contrarian GPP play at this point!
Homestead-Miami Speedway. It’s a 1.5-mile track, the first one of the season, and perhaps the fairest intermediate track as well. It’s a driver’s track and just ask them and they’ll say the same thing as well. Drivers with good handling cars can make any line on this track work and we’ll see a lot of racing up next to the wall as well as the leaders taking the shortest way around the track at the bottom glued to the yellow line.
As we previewed in the track breakdown write-up this week, we’ll be looking at a new stat this week to help pick drivers and that’s green flag speed in the last 25-percent of green flag runs. Why is this stat helpful? Well with 267 laps in the race and typically about 5.5 cautions a race, there are a lot of green flag laps run and so drivers that can maintain speed throughout a run are important to have on the roster. A lot of positions can be made up in that span if your car is able to keep lap times up. A couple of other key stats we’re looking at this week aside from the dominator points, which are a factor, is Top-15 rate and Closer Rate, or the number of positions gained in the last 10-percent of a race.
Want more info? Check out the Podcast, Track Breakdown, DFS Rankings, Projections, and Core Plays.
The following charts show the average points scored by starting spot in the last five races at Homestead-Miami. Last year and this year used the formula method to set the starting lineup so some positions will be lower than we expect to see this year given who’s starting in those spots.
Stacks
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