The last major week of the fantasy football season is upon us! It’s hard to believe that we made it through relatively unscathed this year despite several games getting moved and players missing time with Covid and the typical injuries that occur in the NFL. Now we’re up to the championship week for most fantasy leagues and with so many teams potentially resting key players next week, the last fully stocked week for DFS as well.

Make sure to keep up-to-date with all of the latest in Covid-19 news ahead of lineup locks with the Fantasy Alarm Live Covid Blog.

We have added several stats to each match-up table for a total of 33 stat categories that will highlight some key differences between the teams and where we can find the mismatches to take advantage of. All of the same stats as previous are there, but there are now nine more added on, most of which are under the Advanced Stats section. There will also be a smattering of extra interesting stats for the match-ups.

Click here to see a key for what the stat categories mean, including the newly added ones. The color-coding in each matchup table is geared toward an offensive player’s perspective. So the more green you see, the better that matchup is for an offensive player, and vice versa the more red you see, the worse for an offensive player that matchup is that week.

Def vs. Pos categories are based on ½ PPR scoring formats

Match-Up Breakdowns

Minnesota (6-8) at New Orleans (10-4)

Friday 4:30 PM ET
VikingsatSaints
StatRankOffensive StatsRankStat
25.714PPG928.4
29:3721T.O.P.831:12
387.15Total Yards16363.8
63.519Off Plays1364.9
306Rush Att.729.9
147.75Rush Yds7131.8
4.94Rush YPA134.4
31.127Pass Att.2533
239.418Pass Yds21232
7.74Pass YPA157
VikingsatSaints
StatRankDefensive StatsRankStat
27.725PPG Allowed621.2
37823Yds/G Allowed3306.4
5.826Yds/P Allowed34.9
125.623Rush Yds/G495.6
4.314Rush Yds/Att23.8
252.424Pass Yds/G5210.9
7.327Pass Yds/Att56.2
18.320Def vs. QB2717.1
18.316Def vs. RB3213.7
28.13Def vs. WR1623.1
7.321Def vs. TE157.8
VikingsatSaints
StatRankAdvanced StatsRankStat
27.920Pace3028.81
47.2%5Rush %646.2%
52.8%28Pass %2753.9%
70.8%5RZ %769.6%
53.1%5RZ % Allowed2968.3%
-0.9%13Total DVOA2-17.6%
2.6%12Pass DVOA3-10.8%
-5.3%20Rush DVOA2-27.9%
21.10%31DVOA v. #1 WR13-4.30%
-18.20%6DVOA v. #2 WR12-5.90%
12.00%22DVOA v. #3/4 WR152.30%
-18.90%6DVOA v. TE2-31.90%
  • These two teams are pretty similar in how they run their offenses as Minnesota is fifth in Run percentage and New Orleans is sixth and they’re 28th and 27th in pass percentage respectively.

  • Minnesota comes in having not allowed a 100-yard receiver since Week 7 while Alvin Kamara hasn’t hit 100-yards from scrimmage in seven straight games.

  • Drew Brees came off arguably the worst game of his career last week and he’s still clearly sore but the Vikings pass defense is easier to parse than Kansas City’s and has allowed the ninth-most passing yards per game and sixth-most in yards per attempt.

  • Kirk Cousins has posted a passer rating under 100 for three-straight games and New Orleans has the number-two ranked defense in DVOA are allowing just 210.9 yards a game in the air and less than 100 yards on the ground.

Tampa Bay (9-5) at Detroit (5-9)

Saturday 1:00 PM ET
BuccaneersatLions
StatRankOffensive StatsRankStat
28.67PPG1923.9
28:3325T.O.P.2728:23
362.317Total Yards19357.1
63.122Off Plays2063.4
22.930Rush Att.2823.6
93.929Rush Yds3092.6
4.123Rush YPA263.9
38.86Pass Att.1237.1
268.46Pass Yds7264.5
6.918Pass YPA127.1
BuccaneersatLions
StatRankDefensive StatsRankStat
22.912PPG Allowed3231.1
333.16Yds/G Allowed30401.4
5.26Yds/P Allowed316.1
77.81Rush Yds/G29137.3
3.41Rush Yds/Att194.5
255.325Pass Yds/G27264.1
6.610Pass Yds/Att317.8
19.812Def vs. QB421.8
14.131Def vs. RB127.1
25.311Def vs. WR427
8.99Def vs. TE237.1
BuccaneersatLions
StatRankAdvanced StatsRankStat
26.389Pace726.14
36.4%31Rush %2737.2%
63.7%2Pass %662.8%
69.8%6RZ %1164.7%
63.0%19RZ % Allowed3173.2%
-12.6%5Total DVOA3216.0%
-2.0%7Pass DVOA3128.6%
-31.9%1Rush DVOA281.1%
-12.20%8DVOA v. #1 WR2615.70%
3.40%19DVOA v. #2 WR2717.60%
-23.40%4DVOA v. #3/4 WR162.40%
16.80%25DVOA v. TE130.00%
  • Detroit has a terrible defense this year and ranks in the bottom five in most categories which sets up well for Tampa who is trying to clinch a playoff spot.

  • Tampa hasn’t been much of a rushing team but now they’re facing the team allowing the fourth-most rushing yards a game at 137.3 and so Leonard Fournette could be a sneaky good play this week.

  • On the other side of things, Tampa is the best rush defense in the league on yards allowed and Detroit doesn’t really run it at this point and are sixth-lowest in run percentage of plays called.

  • Chris Godwin for Tampa gets a very tasty match-up this week and has been a top target for Tom Brady but for the Lions, T.J. Hockenson has a nice match-up himself and Matthew Stafford may need the quick routes to him to avoid sacks coming in already quite banged up.

San Francisco (5-9) at Arizona (8-6)

Saturday 4:30 PM ET
49ersatCardinals
StatRankOffensive StatsRankStat
23.820PPG1027.9
31:343T.O.P.2229:04
371.113Total Yards3399.2
66.29Off Plays368.1
27.414Rush Att.531
112.617Rush Yds4147.8
4.122Rush YPA74.8
36.514Pass Att.1635.6
258.610Pass Yds15251.4
7.113Pass YPA147.1
49ersatCardinals
StatRankDefensive StatsRankStat
25.117PPG Allowed1323.5
314.35Yds/G Allowed13350
5.25Yds/P Allowed85.3
104.47Rush Yds/G17119.4
3.95Rush Yds/Att184.4
209.94Pass Yds/G12230.6
6.58Pass Yds/Att66.3
17.523Def vs. QB1419.7
15.826Def vs. RB1817.8
22.620Def vs. WR1423.8
531Def vs. TE276
49ersatCardinals
StatRankAdvanced StatsRankStat
27.9221Pace225.1
41.3%16Rush %745.5%
58.7%17Pass %2654.5%
68.8%8RZ %967.9%
59.5%12RZ % Allowed755.1%
-5.6%10Total DVOA9-6.2%
4.3%14Pass DVOA80.1%
-19.4%9Rush DVOA14-15.7%
-19.60%5DVOA v. #1 WR18-0.20%
0.50%15DVOA v. #2 WR2818.40%
14.50%26DVOA v. #3/4 WR9-9.00%
-20.70%5DVOA v. TE140.10%
  • While this is listed as a road game for the Niners, they’ve been playing in Arizona the last two “home” games due to Covid restrictions in California which might make them more comfortable in this game.

  • San Francisco have now lost three games in a row twice this year and the Cardinals the last two weeks have been very good defensively allowing just 16.5 PPG and just over 290 yards and racking up a whopping SEVEN sacks a game.

  • Kyler Murray has more passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns than any player on the Niners right now and has looked better of late.

  • Both teams cover the number-one receivers well, however, there are advantages here with the second wideout against Arizona and slot receivers against San Francisco who are both likely cheap in DFS this week.

Miami (9-5) at Las Vegas (7-7)

Saturday 8:15 PM ET
DolphinsatRaiders
StatRankOffensive StatsRankStat
25.116PPG1126.9
31:0310T.O.P.931:11
327.626Total Yards11375
62.725Off Plays1265.1
27.413Rush Att.1029.3
106.322Rush Yds12121.9
3.927Rush YPA194.2
33.224Pass Att.2034.2
221.424Pass Yds14253.1
6.722Pass YPA97.4
DolphinsatRaiders
StatRankDefensive StatsRankStat
18.41PPG Allowed2930.1
358.118Yds/G Allowed25385.4
5.722Yds/P Allowed286
12019Rush Yds/G25125.8
4.628Rush Yds/Att274.6
238.118Pass Yds/G26259.6
724Pass Yds/Att267.2
17.126Def vs. QB920.5
17.223Def vs. RB422.7
23.515Def vs. WR1025.5
628Def vs. TE187.7
DolphinsatRaiders
StatRankAdvanced StatsRankStat
28.6527Pace2528.3
43.6%12Rush %845.0%
56.4%21Pass %2555.0%
60.4%15RZ %2456.6%
56.4%8RZ % Allowed2766.1%
-5.2%11Total DVOA2910.5%
-7.9%5Pass DVOA2115.5%
-1.7%24Rush DVOA314.0%
-1.80%17DVOA v. #1 WR2716.90%
-33.30%1DVOA v. #2 WR249.50%
-8.20%11DVOA v. #3/4 WR2919.40%
-12.70%9DVOA v. TE7-17.00%
  • Miami has allowed fewer than 20 points 10 times in 14 games which leads the NFL and now faces an injured Derek Carr who has struggled when healthy of late.

  • Las Vegas is allowing 30.1 PPG this year which is their most allowed since the second season they were a team in 1961.

  • The Dolphins were short-handed last week but get at least Myles Gaskin back this week and Las Vegas ranks 31st in DVOA against the rush and are allowing the fourth-most points to running backs this year.

  • Darren Waller has 425 yards receiving in the last three games which is the most for a tight end in a three game stretch in a season ever. However, Miami is pretty tough against tight ends ranking 28th in most points allowed and 9th in DVOA against the position.

Indianapolis (10-4) at Pittsburgh (11-3)

Sunday 1:00 PM ET
ColtsatSteelers
StatRankOffensive StatsRankStat
28.58PPG1326.1
30:4014T.O.P.731:15
374.812Total Yards25329
64.415Off Plays1165.3
28.111Rush Att.2724.2
11415Rush Yds3188.9
4.124Rush YPA313.7
35.118Pass Att.140.2
260.89Pass Yds17240.1
7.47Pass YPA266
ColtsatSteelers
StatRankDefensive StatsRankStat
22.911PPG Allowed218.9
334.17Yds/G Allowed2297.9
5.412Yds/P Allowed24.8
98.15Rush Yds/G8104.6
3.84Rush Yds/Att104.1
23617Pass Yds/G2193.3
722Pass Yds/Att25.8
17.424Def vs. QB3115.5
17.321Def vs. RB3014.4
22.719Def vs. WR2122.5
5.929Def vs. TE324.4
ColtsatSteelers
StatRankAdvanced StatsRankStat
27.7617Pace2428.11
43.7%11Rush %2937.1%
56.3%22Pass %462.9%
58.5%20RZ %1363.8%
59.6%13RZ % Allowed653.9%
-11.8%6Total DVOA1-23.5%
-7.7%6Pass DVOA1-21.7%
-17.7%11Rush DVOA3-25.8%
-3.80%14DVOA v. #1 WR2514.50%
-13.40%10DVOA v. #2 WR4-21.60%
2.70%17DVOA v. #3/4 WR2-26.70%
-25.60%4DVOA v. TE1-63.70%
  • After being the toughest team to beat for 11 weeks, Pittsburgh has last three straight games and hasn’t scored over 20 points in four-straight games which is a first for the Steelers since Ben Roethlisberger ’s rookie year in 2004.

  • Speaking of quarterback play, Philip Rivers is 47-24 in games in December and January in his career but the Colts haven’t beaten the Steelers without Peyton Manning under center since Week 8 of 1984 (Mark Herrmann).

  • Over the last three games the Steelers have allowed 25.3 points per game and had allowed 17.1 PPG in the first 11 games.

  • Pittsburgh has a very good pass defense but rank 25th against number one wide receivers on the year in DVOA so T.Y. Hilton might be a sneaky play.

Atlanta (4-10) at Kansas City (13-1)

Sunday 1:00 PM ET
FalconsatChiefs
StatRankOffensive StatsRankStat
25.415PPG231.1
30:2116T.O.P.1330:45
367.414Total Yards1427.9
67.54Off Plays667.2
25.719Rush Att.1726.1
93.928Rush Yds14116.5
3.732Rush YPA114.5
39.25Pass Att.439.5
273.44Pass Yds1311.4
717Pass YPA27.9
FalconsatChiefs
StatRankDefensive StatsRankStat
25.218PPG Allowed822.1
392.428Yds/G Allowed15353.6
6.129Yds/P Allowed155.6
104.79Rush Yds/G21123.5
4.416Rush Yds/Att264.6
287.731Pass Yds/G10230.1
7.529Pass Yds/Att96.6
23.81Def vs. QB1619.5
15.328Def vs. RB1118.9
28.61Def vs. WR3019.7
9.66Def vs. TE118.6
FalconsatChiefs
StatRankAdvanced StatsRankStat
25.913Pace1327.07
38.1%25Rush %2138.8%
61.9%8Pass %1261.2%
51.0%30RZ %1759.3%
67.4%28RZ % Allowed3276.9%
-1.1%12Total DVOA172.9%
11.5%19Pass DVOA133.1%
-22.7%4Rush DVOA302.6%
13.30%24DVOA v. #1 WR2-24.60%
9.30%23DVOA v. #2 WR227.60%
-4.90%13DVOA v. #3/4 WR8-17.00%
18.20%27DVOA v. TE10-11.70%
  • Can we get two more explosive offenses on the field at the same time and while the record isn’t good for Atlanta, the offense has still posted more than 25 points a game and runs the fourth-most plays per game in the league.

  • Both teams are also top-four in passing yards a game on offense but the Chiefs are top-10 defensively against passing attacks allowing just a tick over 230 yards a game.

  • While the Chiefs have posted 20-plus points in 28 straight games, tied for an NFL record, they have also won their last six games by six or fewer points so they haven’t been fully clicking.

  • The Falcons haven’t been running the ball well over the last several weeks and ranks 25th in rush plays called while the Chiefs are middle of the road in rushing offense, Atlanta’s rush defense is fourth-best in the league.

Chicago (7-7) at Jacksonville (1-13)

Sunday 1:00 PM ET
BearsatJaguars
StatRankOffensive StatsRankStat
22.523PPG2919.6
29:4220T.O.P.2927:57
325.427Total Yards23332.6
64.216Off Plays2462.7
23.529Rush Att.3221.7
100.824Rush Yds2699.3
4.317Rush YPA94.6
38.38Pass Att.738.4
224.622Pass Yds20233.3
5.927Pass YPA256.1
BearsatJaguars
StatRankDefensive StatsRankStat
22.710PPG Allowed3030.2
351.714Yds/G Allowed32418.2
5.39Yds/P Allowed326.3
118.516Rush Yds/G30146.5
4.19Rush Yds/Att234.6
233.213Pass Yds/G28271.7
6.714Pass Yds/Att328.1
17.622Def vs. QB223
1724Def vs. RB323
20.329Def vs. WR826.1
10.32Def vs. TE39.8
BearsatJaguars
StatRankAdvanced StatsRankStat
27.1515Pace626.11
36.6%30Rush %3234.6%
63.4%3Pass %165.4%
59.1%18RZ %1659.5%
52.1%3RZ % Allowed2164.2%
-8.7%7Total DVOA3114.3%
1.1%10Pass DVOA3229.2%
-21.7%5Rush DVOA23-2.6%
-31.90%1DVOA v. #1 WR206.60%
-8.70%11DVOA v. #2 WR5-18.50%
31.60%31DVOA v. #3/4 WR2715.70%
0.50%15DVOA v. TE2820.40%
  • Does it get much tastier than the resurgent Bears offense against a team clearly tanking for the first pick in the draft at this point?

  • In games with Mitch Trubisky starting this season the Bears are averaging better than 28 points per game and Jacksonville is allowing 30.2 points per game on defense to this point.

  • Gardner Minshew currently is setting an NFL record for the highest passer rating on a team with as few wins as Jacksonville has and the Bears have been weak against slot receivers this year based on DVOA so that might give you a dart throw to play.

  • James Washington needs to average 115.5 scrimmage yards a game the next two games to break Fred Taylor’s rookie record of 1,644.

Cincinnati (3-10-1) at Houston (4-10)

Sunday 1:00 PM ET
BengalsatTexans
StatRankOffensive StatsRankStat
19.430PPG2422.5
31:166T.O.P.3127:25
312.930Total Yards18361.4
66.48Off Plays3159.1
25.621Rush Att.3122.1
96.627Rush Yds3286
3.830Rush YPA283.9
37.311Pass Att.2233.8
216.426Pass Yds3275.4
5.829Pass YPA18.2
BengalsatTexans
StatRankDefensive StatsRankStat
25.419PPG Allowed2427.6
372.622Yds/G Allowed31402.6
5.825Yds/P Allowed306.1
128.626Rush Yds/G31150.5
4.625Rush Yds/Att325
24420Pass Yds/G23252.1
721Pass Yds/Att287.4
17.921Def vs. QB1519.6
19.210Def vs. RB225.8
22.818Def vs. WR726.2
9.48Def vs. TE147.8
BengalsatTexans
StatRankAdvanced StatsRankStat
27.8118Pace1226.99
38.6%22Rush %2637.4%
61.4%11Pass %762.6%
51.2%28RZ %2554.8%
62.8%17RZ % Allowed1863.0%
6.6%25Total DVOA3012.2%
17.8%27Pass DVOA2820.9%
-7.9%17Rush DVOA291.7%
-6.60%11DVOA v. #1 WR3020.30%
-17.80%7DVOA v. #2 WR3135.10%
28.50%30DVOA v. #3/4 WR2312.40%
-5.90%12DVOA v. TE3024.60%
  • Two bad defenses facing off against two offenses that can surprise from time-to-time is what this game comes down too.

  • Cincinnati has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing defenses this year while Houston is allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

  • It should be interesting to see what exactly happens inside the 20 since both teams are bottom-seven in the league offensively there but their defenses are allowing nearly two-thirds of trips to end in touchdowns.

New York (5-9) at Baltimore (9-5)

Sunday 1:00 PM ET
GiantsatRavens
StatRankOffensive StatsRankStat
17.431PPG628.8
29:0323T.O.P.1530:27
299.231Total Yards21346.6
60.930Off Plays2961
25.620Rush Att.132.9
113.516Rush Yds1172.7
4.412Rush YPA15.2
32.226Pass Att.3225.8
185.729Pass Yds31173.9
5.830Pass YPA206.7
GiantsatRavens
StatRankDefensive StatsRankStat
22.29PPG Allowed420.5
346.412Yds/G Allowed9343.7
5.410Yds/P Allowed75.2
101.86Rush Yds/G10109.9
3.96Rush Yds/Att174.4
244.621Pass Yds/G14233.8
6.817Pass Yds/Att46.1
16.829Def vs. QB1918.9
18.613Def vs. RB1917.5
22.123Def vs. WR2720.8
724Def vs. TE197.4
GiantsatRavens
StatRankAdvanced StatsRankStat
27.8519Pace3129.19
42.1%15Rush %154.0%
57.9%18Pass %3246.0%
46.0%31RZ %1264.0%
53.1%4RZ % Allowed2465.9%
4.1%19Total DVOA8-7.0%
15.6%22Pass DVOA112.3%
-13.3%15Rush DVOA6-21.5%
-5.90%12DVOA v. #1 WR10-7.40%
5.50%20DVOA v. #2 WR172.50%
33.40%32DVOA v. #3/4 WR5-20.50%
16.30%24DVOA v. TE160.80%
  • If you’re a Giants’ fan this isn’t the match-up you want to see right now as the Ravens have averaged 228 rushing yards a game the last three games and the Giants have allowed 100 or more yards on the ground in the last three games.

  • The Giants have also scored 20 or fewer points eight times this year, four straight, but Baltimore has averaged 40.3 points in the last three games.

  • While the Giants rank ninth against the TE in points allowed per game, they are 24th against them in DVOA and 32nd against number-three receivers as well.

  • If Daniel Jones plays, the Giants are averaging more than seven points a game more with him under center than with Colt McCoy .

Cleveland (10-4) at New York (1-13)

Sunday 1:00 PM ET
BrownsatJets
StatRankOffensive StatsRankStat
26.312PPG3214.7
31:0011T.O.P.3227:13
375.410Total Yards32271.1
63.221Off Plays3258.4
31.94Rush Att.2524.8
152.63Rush Yds23102.9
4.86Rush YPA204.2
30.130Pass Att.2930.9
222.823Pass Yds32168.2
7.48Pass YPA325.5
BrownsatJets
StatRankDefensive StatsRankStat
26.723PPG Allowed2829.5
357.717Yds/G Allowed29392.7
5.617Yds/P Allowed275.8
111.212Rush Yds/G14112.9
4.315Rush Yds/Att84
246.522Pass Yds/G30279.8
6.815Pass Yds/Att307.5
20.88Def vs. QB322.6
16.825Def vs. RB2217.2
24.812Def vs. WR925.8
9.84Def vs. TE112.1
BrownsatJets
StatRankAdvanced StatsRankStat
28.7929Pace1427.14
50.4%3Rush %1442.5%
49.6%30Pass %1957.5%
74.5%4RZ %3241.2%
61.4%14RZ % Allowed958.2%
7.5%26Total DVOA225.9%
17.2%25Pass DVOA2925.0%
-6.1%19Rush DVOA8-19.6%
-23.20%3DVOA v. #1 WR2313.20%
5.90%21DVOA v. #2 WR3024.20%
13.50%25DVOA v. #3/4 WR10-8.40%
15.20%23DVOA v. TE2617.50%
  • There are quite a few interesting things to look at here as the Browns have won there last few games by six points or less and of the three previous teams to start 0-13 and win their 14th game, two of them also won their 15th.

  • Baker Mayfield has gone 8-1 against non-divisional opponents this year (2-3 vs. AFC North).

  • Cleveland is the first team in NFL history to have a negative point differential and have 10 or more wins through the first 14 games of the season which means they’ve been skirting by the skin of their teeth a bit often.

  • If you want a game to target tight end touchdowns, you can look at this one as both teams are top-four in most points allowed to the position and bottom-10 in DVOA.

Carolina (4-10) at Washington (6-8)

Sunday 4:05 PM ET
PanthersatWashington
StatRankOffensive StatsRankStat
23.122PPG2621.6
30:4712T.O.P.1730:14
356.620Total Yards29317.3
61.928Off Plays1065.7
25.124Rush Att.2325.3
108.420Rush Yds25100
4.316Rush YPA254
34.619Pass Att.1037.3
248.216Pass Yds25217.3
7.211Pass YPA285.8
PanthersatWashington
StatRankDefensive StatsRankStat
25.420PPG Allowed521.1
359.119Yds/G Allowed4312.6
5.720Yds/P Allowed45
119.418Rush Yds/G13112.4
4.729Rush Yds/Att134.3
239.719Pass Yds/G3200.2
6.611Pass Yds/Att36
19.417Def vs. QB2517.2
19.58Def vs. RB2715.5
22.422Def vs. WR3119.2
8.612Def vs. TE177.7
PanthersatWashington
StatRankAdvanced StatsRankStat
28.6628Pace1126.81
40.7%18Rush %2338.5%
59.4%15Pass %1061.5%
52.0%27RZ %2258.1%
64.0%20RZ % Allowed251.4%
8.5%27Total DVOA3-16.2%
17.4%26Pass DVOA2-15.8%
-4.1%22Rush DVOA13-16.7%
-8.10%9DVOA v. #1 WR2919.30%
-1.80%13DVOA v. #2 WR3-28.00%
12.70%24DVOA v. #3/4 WR1-29.20%
8.20%20DVOA v. TE2110.90%
  • The Panthers have lost eight of their 10 games by a single possession this year meaning their record doesn’t fully show how close they’re playing.

  • This is a revenge game for Washington’s coach Ron Rivera and a chance to clinch a playoff spot depending on what happens in other NFC East games this weekend.

  • Washington is allowing the fifth-fewest scrimmage yards to opposing running backs this year and they rank top-five in points per game allowed and yards per game allowed which if they finish there, would be a first since 2004 for them.

  • An interesting thing to watch for is just how well the top target for Carolina fares as Washington ranks 29th in DVOA against number-one wide receivers.

Denver (5-9) at Los Angeles (5-9)

Sunday 4:05 PM ET
BroncosatChargers
StatRankOffensive StatsRankStat
19.728PPG2123.4
28:2228T.O.P.231:46
323.428Total Yards7384.4
62.726Off Plays171.6
27.315Rush Att.929.4
118.813Rush Yds18111.4
4.414Rush YPA293.8
33.423Pass Att.240.2
204.628Pass Yds5272.9
6.124Pass YPA196.8
BroncosatChargers
StatRankDefensive StatsRankStat
28.227PPG Allowed2627.8
364.721Yds/G Allowed10345.1
5.513Yds/P Allowed145.6
134.628Rush Yds/G22123.8
4.830Rush Yds/Att204.5
230.111Pass Yds/G7221.3
6.57Pass Yds/Att136.7
20.410Def vs. QB720.8
18.415Def vs. RB1717.9
2317Def vs. WR2522.1
725Def vs. TE79.4
BroncosatChargers
StatRankAdvanced StatsRankStat
26.410Pace826.23
43.5%13Rush %1741.0%
56.5%20Pass %1659.0%
58.3%21RZ %1958.7%
49.1%1RZ % Allowed1058.3%
0.7%16Total DVOA215.7%
0.8%9Pass DVOA179.8%
0.7%27Rush DVOA260.4%
-13.70%7DVOA v. #1 WR4-20.50%
0.90%16DVOA v. #2 WR2511.40%
9.60%21DVOA v. #3/4 WR194.80%
3.70%19DVOA v. TE2213.70%
  • These two quarterbacks are capable of having good days in this match-up as Drew Lock put up nearly 20 points the last time they played and Justin Herbert is the first rookie in NFL history to have a completion percentage of 65-percent or better and 27 or more touchdowns in a season.

  • Along that same line, Herbert is averaging 290.8 yards per game through the air and the Chargers have allowed top-10 quarterback performances in two of the last three weeks.

  • Austin Ekeler and Melvin Gordon III should be looking to have solid games as well as both defenses rank 27th (Denver) and 26th (LA) in Rush DVOA.

  • The Chargers have allowed the seventh-most points to tight ends a game this year so Noah Fant could be in a good spot.

Philadelphia (4-9-1) at Dallas (5-9)

Sunday 4:25 PM ET
EaglesatCowboys
StatRankOffensive StatsRankStat
21.625PPG1824.2
28:5424T.O.P.3027:54
333.122Total Yards15366.4
66.47Off Plays269.1
24.626Rush Att.1626.4
125.810Rush Yds19109.2
5.12Rush YPA214.1
37.69Pass Att.340.1
207.427Pass Yds11257.1
5.531Pass YPA236.4
EaglesatCowboys
StatRankDefensive StatsRankStat
25.821PPG Allowed3130.9
360.620Yds/G Allowed24383.6
5.411Yds/P Allowed245.8
125.624Rush Yds/G32161.8
4.211Rush Yds/Att315
235.116Pass Yds/G8221.8
723Pass Yds/Att206.9
19.218Def vs. QB1319.7
17.420Def vs. RB621.3
24.613Def vs. WR228.5
8.910Def vs. TE167.7
EaglesatCowboys
StatRankAdvanced StatsRankStat
25.954Pace123.41
37.1%28Rush %2438.2%
62.9%5Pass %961.8%
62.5%14RZ %2653.3%
65.9%25RZ % Allowed1662.8%
0.1%15Total DVOA246.6%
15.8%23Pass DVOA2013.4%
-18.6%10Rush DVOA25-0.9%
22.70%32DVOA v. #1 WR218.10%
22.30%29DVOA v. #2 WR3248.40%
6.10%20DVOA v. #3/4 WR12-7.50%
21.30%29DVOA v. TE3126.70%
  • The Eagles come in with a rejuvenated offense under Jalen Hurts with them average four more points per game and about 100 more yards per game with Hurts at the helm.

  • Hurts has averaged more than 84 yards rushing per game to this point and the Cowboys are allowing the most rushing yards per game in the league.

  • Expect this game to be played at a quick tempo as both teams are top-four in pace and each are in the bottom-third of the league in preventing explosive plays on defense.

  • Both teams are still mathematically alive in the NFC East but with very slim chances and a loss for one of these teams all but eliminates them from contention.

Los Angeles (9-5) at Seattle (10-4)

Sunday 4:25 PM ET
RamsatSeahawks
StatRankOffensive StatsRankStat
24.617PPG429.5
31:324T.O.P.1830:03
383.28Total Yards9381.4
67.45Off Plays1864
29.68Rush Att.1825.7
127.99Rush Yds11125.4
4.315Rush YPA54.9
36.415Pass Att.1735.4
255.413Pass Yds12256.1
716Pass YPA107.2
RamsatSeahawks
StatRankDefensive StatsRankStat
19.23PPG Allowed1524.2
286.11Yds/G Allowed26387.6
4.61Yds/P Allowed185.6
94.12Rush Yds/G394.6
3.83Rush Yds/Att73.9
1921Pass Yds/G32293
5.51Pass Yds/Att196.9
14.232Def vs. QB521.8
15.229Def vs. RB1418.5
16.632Def vs. WR526.7
7.122Def vs. TE207.4
RamsatSeahawks
StatRankAdvanced StatsRankStat
27.5516Pace2328.07
43.9%9Rush %1940.2%
56.1%24Pass %1459.8%
64.7%10RZ %375.0%
58.5%11RZ % Allowed2666.0%
-14.7%4Total DVOA204.2%
-10.0%4Pass DVOA2416.5%
-21.4%7Rush DVOA12-16.9%
1.80%19DVOA v. #1 WR229.70%
-30.30%2DVOA v. #2 WR8-15.40%
-3.30%14DVOA v. #3/4 WR2816.70%
-15.40%8DVOA v. TE11-7.70%
  • The Rams are coming off their worst loss of the season in terms of an opponent and they are 4-0 this year in weeks following loses and Russell Wilson is 1-3 in his career when facing the number one pass defense like the Rams are.

  • If Seattle wins, they clinch the NFC West for the first time since 2016 and both teams have lost to a team from New York, the Rams have six of their nine wins this year against teams with sub-.500 records.

  • While Seattle’s defense has kept teams under 20 points in four straight games, it’s not like it was the toughest stretch of games to do that with and the Rams are holding teams to just 19.2 points per game on the whole of the season.

  • With these teams knowing each other so well, it’s going to take some new wrinkles and new offensive players being involved which makes for a great dart throw opportunity.

Tennessee (10-4) at Green Bay (11-3)

Sunday 8:20 PM ET
TitansatPackers
StatRankOffensive StatsRankStat
31.11PPG331
28:2926T.O.P.132:48
399.42Total Yards4390
64.714Off Plays2363.1
32.42Rush Att.1227.6
160.42Rush Yds8128.9
53Rush YPA84.7
30.928Pass Att.2134.1
238.919Pass Yds8261.1
7.73Pass YPA57.7
TitansatPackers
StatRankDefensive StatsRankStat
25.822PPG Allowed1424.2
390.527Yds/G Allowed8337.7
5.723Yds/P Allowed195.6
114.515Rush Yds/G11110.1
4.312Rush Yds/Att214.5
27629Pass Yds/G9227.6
6.818Pass Yds/Att166.8
21.46Def vs. QB2817
207Def vs. RB522.2
26.36Def vs. WR2422.1
8.213Def vs. TE266
TitansatPackers
StatRankAdvanced StatsRankStat
26.015Pace3230.72
50.0%4Rush %1043.8%
50.0%29Pass %2356.2%
75.4%2RZ %178.4%
70.9%30RZ % Allowed1562.2%
9.7%28Total DVOA184.0%
25.1%30Pass DVOA1810.2%
-12.9%16Rush DVOA21-4.6%
-2.20%16DVOA v. #1 WR15-2.90%
2.50%18DVOA v. #2 WR2613.20%
-19.50%6DVOA v. #3/4 WR3-25.30%
38.40%32DVOA v. TE171.30%
  • This game has one of the highest over/unders on the board this week as neither defense is that great against what the opposing offense does well.

  • Green Bay is weak against the run defensively and decent against the pass, it’s the opposite for Tennessee who are decent against the run and lousy against the pass.

  • These are also the two most-efficient offenses in the red zone as well which helps with racking up the points for the over as they are both converting better than 75-percent of red zone trips into touchdowns.

  • Robert Tonyan , who’s getting some Pro Bowl snub talk this week, is in a great spot against the Titans 32nd-ranked defense against the TE in DVOA.

Buffalo (11-3) at New England (6-8)

Monday 8:15 PM ET
BillsatPatriots
StatRankOffensive StatsRankStat
29.15PPG2720.6
31:305T.O.P.1929:45
386.76Total Yards24330.8
64.217Off Plays2762
25.422Rush Att.332.1
108.221Rush Yds6145.4
4.318Rush YPA104.5
3713Pass Att.3127.7
278.52Pass Yds30185.4
7.56Pass YPA216.7
BillsatPatriots
StatRankDefensive StatsRankStat
24.316PPG Allowed721.5
356.116Yds/G Allowed11345.4
5.616Yds/P Allowed215.7
121.420Rush Yds/G27133
4.624Rush Yds/Att224.6
234.715Pass Yds/G6212.4
6.712Pass Yds/Att257.1
19.911Def vs. QB3016.6
18.812Def vs. RB919.3
2126Def vs. WR2820.7
9.75Def vs. TE305.1
BillsatPatriots
StatRankAdvanced StatsRankStat
28.4926Pace2227.98
39.5%20Rush %251.7%
60.5%13Pass %3148.3%
57.6%23RZ %2951.1%
64.8%23RZ % Allowed2264.3%
-0.2%14Total DVOA236.4%
5.2%15Pass DVOA166.9%
-7.1%18Rush DVOA325.7%
18.10%28DVOA v. #1 WR6-19.20%
-13.80%9DVOA v. #2 WR14-0.80%
-17.90%7DVOA v. #3/4 WR182.70%
2.30%18DVOA v. TE3-27.00%
  • Typically these two teams play each other tough and defensively the Patriots are still a tough team to face allowing the 30th-most points to quarterbacks and tight ends and the 28th-most to wideouts.

  • This is a Monday Night game without much on the line between these two, but normally it’s the Patriots without much on the line rather than the Bills. Buffalo is in the 2-seed in the AFC which is best as they can finish having lost to KC but beaten Pittsburgh and New England has been eliminated.

  • One thing to watch for here is that the Bills haven’t been great at stopping the run or red zone plays from the opposing offense and with Cam Newton running so often and generally well, rushing touchdowns could be coming for the Patriots’ quarterback.