The finale of the Gander RV & Outdoors Truck series is happening Friday night in Phoenix after what has been one of the wilder truck seasons in recent memory, not just because of the break in the season but also the rejiggering of the schedule and the finishes that have come down to the wire. With that said, there’s also a new track on tap for the Championship race. They have run at Phoenix late in the playoffs before, much like the other series as it’s typically the penultimate race but there’s a new pressure attached to it this year.
There are 150 laps scheduled for the race on Friday evening spaced over 45, 45, and 60 laps around the 1-mile nearly flat track. There are 12 degrees of banking in the outer groove of the track but most of that doesn’t get driven on as the fastest line around the track is to dive through the dogleg and down on the apron in Turns 1 & 2. For those that don’t know what the dogleg refers to, it’s a portion of the track just after the start-finish line in which drivers often cut way down on the apron to cut the corner off, much like hitting a golf shot straight across the corner instead of trying to draw or fade it around the turn. It makes for very exciting restarts and a lot of passing opportunities and fighting for positions. In the last five races here for the Trucks, there have been an average of 6.4 cautions a race and eight lead changes and the most laps led by a winner (not highest total of laps led in a race) was 49 back in 2016.
We can look at drivers' histories at Phoenix, Richmond, and Gateway this week to get a good idea of how they drive at this style of track.
Playbook
Sheldon Creed ($11,000; P3) - The guy who famously said “I wreck a lot of (stuff)” is in the championship after a win at Texas and three total top-fives in the last five races this year. He’s been able to run up front a bit at Phoenix but has so far missed out on a top-five finish. There could easily change this weekend as he won at Gateway earlier in the year, a very similar track, and has great mojo going. Not to mention that he’s topped 64 DK points in five of the last 10 races and in each of the last three races.
Brett Moffitt ($10,700; P4) - It’s been a season of consistency for Moffitt and now comes a track that he’s had success at to try and cap off the season with two wins in the last few races. He won this race in 2018 in his debut on the track and finished P10 here last year. The price suggests that he’ll need to lead at least some laps to hit value and he’s done that here as well as at Richmond earlier in September, which is a similar track and he also started P4 there.
Chandler Smith ($10,400; P21) - Smith is in the 51-truck again on Friday but that hasn’t always meant the best days for Smith. Prior to his P21 last weekend at Martinsville, he had rattled off four-straight P6 or better finishes though they all came from starting inside the top-10 and throughout the back half of the Truck season he hasn’t really shown elite ability to move up through the field. He did finish P3 after starting P6 here last year and had 12 fastest laps so if he gets in the top-10 it’s a good day to wrap the season up for Smith but you’re banking on PD that hasn’t always been there for him this year.
Sam Mayer ($10,000; P15) - Mayer is spectacular and has totalled 48 spots of PD in his five races this year for nearly 10 a race. He started P15 at Gateway in August and nearly won it while finishing P4 and leading 24 laps with 26 fastest laps. The price tag has finally caught up to the value he brings in a fast 24-Truck and has nearly doubled since I put him in the playbook for his first Truck start of the year at Dover. He’ll need a P4 finish to hit value without leading any laps or getting fastest laps.
Zane Smith ($9,800; P2) - The Truck Series rookie is trying to be only the second rookie to win a championship (Erik Jones 2015) but is certainly driving for the right team to make that happen as GMS is the only team to have at least one driver in the Championship four each of the five years the playoffs have been an elimination format. Smith is coming off back-to-back P3 finishes and at Richmond and Gateway earlier this year he ran well at both places leading a combined 89 laps and averaging 48 DK points. The 21-Truck has been piloted to victory here before a few different times and starting up front should help him keep it there, though this is his first time at Phoenix.
Austin Hill ($9,600; P17) - I’ll be honest, we are relying on the fact that Hill has seven top-10 finishes in his last 10 Truck races this season. The three race history at Phoenix is only so-so with one top-20 finish but at Gateway it’s a bit better with four top-20s including a top-five in four races. This is going on the hope that he can finish back in the top-10 and get PD value at a track he’s not proven he can consistently before. He’s a GPP play at this price for sure.
Dylan Lupton ($9,400; P32) - Lupton has raced twice this year and in both of them he’s moved up substantially. P34 to P14 at Vegas and P29 to P8 at Texas. In fact every time but once that the 17-truck has been on the track this year it’s finished better than it’s started moving up 85 total spots in those five races. Lupton has run Phoenix once and finished P16 in that race. He can clearly move up and starting this far back gives him that shot in spades, hence the high price.
Grant Enfinger ($9,200; P1) - This is a remarkably good price for a title contender who’s on the pole at a track that he’s posted back-to-back top-five finishes at and after winning at a similar track (Richmond) earlier this year. This might be a career year for Enfinger but he’s now in the catbird seat for this race as the pole-sitters tend to have the upper-hand in leading early laps. Only once in the last five races at Phoenix has the pole-sitter failed to lead at least 43 laps and three times they’ve topped 90 and if he can lead about a third of the laps, he can easily move back a few spots and hit value.
Stewart Friesen ($8,600; P9) - Friesen has broken our hearts more than a few times this year. Just in the last four races, he’s topped 50 points twice and failed to break 27 twice. Phoenix though is a track that he’s done well at the last three races with a 4.0 average finish and two top-fives including winning this race last year while leading the second-most laps in the field with 44. He’s not going to wow you, but if he gets a top-five finish Friesen hits value.
Todd Gilliland ($8,200; P22) - Gilliland has an average finish of 12.7 in the last three races here, average finish of 17.0 at Richmond, and 12.3 at Gateway in four races. He’s starting P22. He’s spent more time going backward over the last 10 races than he has going forward and that’s clearly why he’s starting here and his price has been knocked down, but if he can get to those average finishes, that’s nice PD upside from a driver looking to get out of 2020 on a better note than he’s been on. Gilliland is a better GPP fit on Friday.
Johnny Sauter ($7,800; P16) - Sauter has been great in his career at Phoenix with nine top-10s in his 11 races here and a win. Sauter has struggled much of the last 10 races and for most of the season with eight top-10s in 22 races, but this is a track that even without practice, he should do very well at, to give him a better taste in his mouth to end the season. This is easily the cheapest he’s been in the last 10 races and hopefully the lackluster showings keep his drafted rates down and we can squeeze one final good showing out of him.
Robby Lyons ($7,600; P33) - Lyons is a cheaper option than Lupton while starting next to each other in the grid and still possesses the same nice PD upside. The 97 truck has been on track seven times this year and has picked up an average of 7.6 spots of PD a race. There is concern about being lapped here has in each of the last five Truck races at Phoenix less than half the field finished on the lead lap, but if he makes it to the top-20 which he was able to do at Pocono while starting P33, he gets to 5x.
Spencer Davis ($7,300; P27) - We’re getting back on the Davis horse after a disappointing race at Martinsville last weekend. He’s posted seven top-20s in 13 races and six in the last 10 all of which came from starting in the neighborhood that he’s starting on Friday. The price tag is still a bit higher than we want as he’ll need a top-17 to hit value but perhaps with the disappointing day last weekend and a slightly better starting spot, Davis won’t be as played as perhaps he should be.
Tyler Hill ($6,600; P26) - It’s generally a good idea to get exposure to who’s ever in the 56-truck. In 22 races this year, the 56-truck has finished better than it’s started 17 times including four of the last five races. At Gateway and Richmond Tyler and Timmy each moved up well averaging 7.5 spots a race in PD. Another top-20, which they’ve done 12 times this year and five of the last six races, should be in the cards for Hill and that easily gets him value.
Tate Fogleman ($5,800; P28) - He’s posted two top-18 finishes in the two similar races to Phoenix this year and in five of the last 10 races, he’s moved up at least a few spots a race. At this price tag and with some other drivers starting behind him likely to get more attention, why not take another shot on Fogleman?
Dawson Cram ($5,400; P24) - Cram has been a favorite cheap play of mine when playing Trucks..when he’s in the right spot. This is a right spot for Cram. He’s starting P24 and in his lone Phoenix race he finished P16 and he also moved up a few spots at Gateway earlier this year too. At this price it should be fairly easy for him to hit value as he’s the cheapest he’s been in the last 10 races.