As is the case each week, we’ll breakdown each match-up over more than 25 stat categories and we’ll highlight some key differences between the teams and where we can find the mismatches to take advantage of. There will also be a smattering of extra interesting stats for the match-ups.
Below is a key that defines each stat category and how they are ranked. The color-coding that shows for each matchup is geared toward looking from an offensive player’s perspective. So the more green you see, the better that matchup is for an opposing offensive player, and vice versa the more red you see, the worse for an offensive player that matchup is that week
Def vs. Pos categories are based on ½ PPR scoring formats
Key
Offensive Rankings
Pace – How many seconds it takes a team to run a play (1-fastest, 32-slowest)
PPG – Points scored per game (1-most, 32-least)
T.O.P. – Time of Possession (1-most, 32 least)
Total Yards – Total Yards Per Game Offensively (1-most, 32 least)
RZ % - Red Zone TD Scoring Percentage (1-best, 32-worst)
Off Plays – Total Number of Offensive Plays Run Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Rush Att. – Total Number of Rushing Attempts Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Rush % - Percentage of Offensive Plays That Are Runs (1-highest, 32-lowest)
Rush Yds – Rushing Yards Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Rush YPA – Rushing Yards Per Attempt (1-most, 32-least)
Pass Att. – Total Number of Pass Attempts Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Pass % - Percentage of Offensive Plays That Are Pass (1-highest, 32-lowest)
Pass Yds – Passing Yards Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Pass YPA – Passing Yards Per Attempt (1-most, 32-least)
Defensive Rankings
DVOA – Football Outsiders Defensive Value Over Average (Negative numbers are better) (1-best, 32-worst)
Yds/G Allowed – Yards Per Game Against (1-least, 32-most)
Yds/P Allowed – Yards Per Play Against (1-least, 32-most)
Rush Yds/G – Rushing Yards Per Game Against (1-least, 32-most)
Rush Yds/Att. – Rushing Yards Per Attempt Against (1-least, 32-most)
Pass Yds/G – Passing Yards Per Game Against (1-least, 32-most)
Pass Yds/Att. – Passing Yards Per Attempt Against (1-least, 32-most)
Def vs. QB – Fantasy Points Allowed Vs QB (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Def vs. RB - Fantasy Points Allowed Vs RB (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Def vs. WR - Fantasy Points Allowed Vs WR (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Def vs. TE - Fantasy Points Allowed Vs TE (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Bye Weeks: Arizona, Houston, Jacksonville, Washington
Match-Up Breakdowns
Atlanta (1-6) at Carolina (3-4)
The only win for the Falcons came the week they fired their coach and since then it’s been more of the same. A poor defense and an offense that is reliant on the passing attack to carry the load. This week though that could cause a problem as the Panthers actually have a solid pass defense ranking 10th in passing yards allowed a game and third in yards per pass attempt allowed. The rush defense though might have trouble stopping Todd Gurley who has looked better in recent weeks. On the Carolina side, D.J. Moore has a top-four match-up this week according to the PFF WR/CB Matchup grades and Atlanta has been susceptible to the explosive pass plays ranking dead last with a 12-percent explosive pass rate (35 of 286 pass plays).
Pittsburgh (6-0) at Baltimore (5-1)
The top teams in the AFC North square off in what is a chance to get a major step toward locking up the division for one of these teams. We can look at all of the stats we want to for this one but as with most big divisional rivals, the numbers likely won’t matter much when all is said and done. The number one ranked rush offense comes up against the second-rank rush defense in this one so it will clearly be strength on strength but if the Ravens want to get the win they will likely need Lamar Jackson to have a great day passing the ball to keep the defense of the Steelers honest.
Los Angeles (5-2) at Miami (3-3)
It’s still tough to peg down exactly what the Rams are from week-to-week but this match-up should set up well for them as Miami has a tough time stopping the slot receivers they’ve faced and also don’t do a good job of containing explosive rushing plays. Miami ranks fifth in the league in allowing 5.0 yards per carry and part of that is due to them having a 15-percent explosive run rate which is second-worst in the league. Meanwhile, the rookie QB for Miami gets to stand behind an offensive line that ranks 25th in pass blocking and 31st in run blocking according to PFF and the Rams Pass Rush ranks sixth-best.
New York (0-7) at Kansas City (6-1)
This game has a chance to go off as the most lopsided spread in NFL history. The current record is 24-points. Even if Jamison Crowder plays, the Chiefs are stronger against the pass than the run and the Jets don’t have much in the way of a rushing attack either. Also, keep in mind that Le’Veon Bell is now in Kansas City and so he can help give the tendencies for the Jets defense and have a revenge game.
Minnesota (1-5) at Green Bay (5-1)
Two teams going in completely different directions this season. It’s fair to say that both teams aren’t meeting expectations this year in two different directions. The two teams played each other in Week 1 and the Packers hung 43 on the porous Vikings defense. Things haven’t gotten better for either team’s defenses as the Packers allow the second most points per game to opposing running backs and the Vikings allow the second most points to opposing wideouts. Adams has the 11th-best match-up according to PFF WR/CB match-up grades but Kirk Cousins will have to be on his best game because the Packers also rank sixth in overall coverage according to PFF grades.
Indianapolis (4-2) at Detroit (3-3)
Indianapolis ranks fourth in PPG allowed this season at 19.2 but in three of their games they’ve allowed 27 or more points to Jacksonville, Cleveland, and Cincinnati and Detroit’s offense can be that potent as well as they average 26 points a game as it is. The Colts offense can be pretty tough though as they rank in the top-five in pretty much every category and allow bottom-five points to opposing quarterbacks, running backs, and tight ends. If the Lions passing game can impose their will though, this could be a track meet of a game as the Lions defense hasn’t been great at stopping anyone yet.
Las Vegas (3-3) at Cleveland (5-2)
The Raiders are coming off a trouncing at the hands of the Buccaneers last week and the Browns lost their top receiving threat in Odell Beckham Jr. This could still be a shootout though considering the Raiders are allowing 33 points a game and have allowed at least 30 points in five of their six games this year. Meanwhile, the Browns are one of three teams with a winning record while posting a negative point differential. The Browns are one of the best rushing teams in the league and they run it the second-most by percentage of plays called in the league and average the third-most yards per game and fourth-most yards per attempt. While the Raiders do give Josh Jacobs a lot of volume, he’s only averaging 3.4 yards per carry which is the worst in the league for any RB with 80 or more attempts. So depending on game script, that team’s rushing attack likely succeeds.
Tennessee (5-1) at Cincinnati (1-5-1)
On paper, this seems like an easy match-up for the Titans as they are four games better than the Bengals record-wise. However some stats and match-ups make this closer than it appears. Joe Burrow has posted 300 or more passing yards in five of his last six games and the Titans allow 272 passing yards a game while also allowing two or more passing touchdowns in five straight games. If Joe Mixon plays it’s also a boost for Cincy as the Titans allow nearly 130 yards a game. Meanwhile, the Bengals rush defense took a hit with trading Carlos Dunlap and the Titans are averaging 145 yards rushing a game so this could be a clock burner type match-up.
New England (2-4) at Buffalo (5-2)
Usually, at this point these records are flipped and it’s the Patriots trying get another division win to separate themselves in the AFC East but this year it might just be Josh Allen and company trying to do that. For that to happen though the Bills will have to get the offense rolling again as they’ve failed to score 20 points in their last three games and they have yet to have a player record a game with more than 75 yards rushing in a game making them the only team in the league to fail to accomplish that. The Patriots though have allowed a top-20 wide receiver showing for fantasy in four of the last five games.
Los Angeles (2-4) at Denver (2-4)
The Chargers offense has been doing quite well with Justin Herbert in terms of fantasy output and he has posted 22 or more points in four of his five games while Denver has allowed a top-12 QB showing in three of their last four games. Denver’s defense overall is still pretty stout and from a fantasy perspective they give up the second-fewest points to running backs per game.The passing game will have to carry the day for the Chargers if they’re going to win this one but at the same time Drew Lock and Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant (if he’s healthy) could show well as those have been the Chargers problem areas on defense.
San Francisco (4-3) at Seattle (5-1)
What has been a top match-up in the NFC West for the last several years, is again an interesting match-up. Yet again, the defenses will be the storyline going in but not necessarily how we’re used to as the Niners defense is a pretty stout group, though this is probably the best offense they’ll have faced yet, while the Seahawks are allowing the most passing yards per game to this point and have allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers. The Niners were hitting on all cylinders last week when they hung 33 on the Patriots so we could be seeing a shootout of sorts this week as well.
New Orleans (4-2) at Chicago (5-2)
Will Michael Thomas play or won’t he? That’s the main question here because if he doesn’t, the Bears defense should have a field day as they’ve done all year against opposing passing games. The Saints have the fewest big plays (rushes of 10-plus yards, receptions of 20-plus yards) of any team in the league and that’s likely not to change this week. The Bears have been mediocre against the rush this year and Alvin Kamara has posted 100 or more scrimmage yards in five straight games. Drew Brees does have eight touchdowns and no picks in the last four games against the Bears, though they all took place with better weapons than he has currently with Smith as his leading receiver.
Dallas (2-5) at Philadelphia (2-4-1)
Believe it or not this is a game for the lead in the NFC East. It’s a division that hasn’t seen a repeat champion since 2004, making it the longest drought of repeat winners in the league. The Cowboys defense has only managed one pick this entire season and are allowing 34.7 PPG on defense while allowing the most rushing yards per game as well. While the Eagles offense has been lacking weapons, they’ve still managed to put out 25 or more points in three of their last four games. It’s still uncertain who the Cowboys quarterback will be but it hasn’t mattered much since Dak Prescott went down a few weeks ago and even with Prescott under center, Ezekiel Elliott still hasn’t topped 100 yards on the ground in any game this season.
Tampa Bay (5-2) at New York (1-6)
Brady and company have been on a roll of late and now have added Antonio Brown to the fold to replace the injured Chris Godwin. The Giants have averaged just 11.8 points when facing teams outside of the NFC East and now draw one of the top pass defenses in the league to this point. Daniel Jones has a propensity to throw picks, which the Tampa defense has taken full advantage of this year. The Giants defense hasn’t had luck stopping anyone to this point and that was before facing a team with the amount of weapons that Tampa Bay has at their disposal. Expect some garbage time yards in the running game from both Ronald Jones II and Leonard Fournette.