The NFL season has arrived at the quarter pole and teams are starting to show who they are, though key injuries are certainly taking a toll on some team’s abilities to play at their best. We will again break down each match-up and point out some of the key mismatches from those games that we can take advantage of for seasonal and DFS football. Be aware that the Titans-Steelers game won’t happen when scheduled and will either be played on Monday or Tuesday. It is marked with asterisks for the time in the breakdown for the game.
Keep in mind this is meant to be a one-stop-shop for seeing how each team match-up against each other over 25 or so stat categories. It should be used as a way to synthesize your research and see why the coaches and watch list and playbook are pointing to the plays they are.
Below is a key that defines each stat category and how they are ranked. The color-coding that shows for each matchup is geared toward looking from an offensive player’s perspective. So the more green you see, the better that matchup is for an opposing offensive player, and vice versa the more red you see, the worse for an offensive player that matchup is that week
Def vs. Pos categories are based on ½ PPR scoring formats
Key
Offensive Rankings
Pace – How many seconds it takes a team to run a play (1-fastest, 32-slowest)
PPG – Points scored per game (1-most, 32-least)
T.O.P. – Time of Possession (1-most, 32 least)
Total Yards – Total Yards Per Game Offensively (1-most, 32 least)
RZ % - Red Zone TD Scoring Percentage (1-best, 32-worst)
Off Plays – Total Number of Offensive Plays Run Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Rush Att. – Total Number of Rushing Attempts Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Rush % - Percentage of Offensive Plays That Are Runs (1-highest, 32-lowest)
Rush Yds – Rushing Yards Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Rush YPA – Rushing Yards Per Attempt (1-most, 32-least)
Pass Att. – Total Number of Pass Attempts Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Pass % - Percentage of Offensive Plays That Are Pass (1-highest, 32-lowest)
Pass Yds – Passing Yards Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Pass YPA – Passing Yards Per Attempt (1-most, 32-least)
Defensive Rankings
DVOA – Football Outsiders Defensive Value Over Average (Negative numbers are better) (1-best, 32-worst)
Yds/G Allowed – Yards Per Game Against (1-least, 32-most)
Yds/P Allowed – Yards Per Play Against (1-least, 32-most)
Rush Yds/G – Rushing Yards Per Game Against (1-least, 32-most)
Rush Yds/Att. – Rushing Yards Per Attempt Against (1-least, 32-most)
Pass Yds/G – Passing Yards Per Game Against (1-least, 32-most)
Pass Yds/Att. – Passing Yards Per Attempt Against (1-least, 32-most)
Def vs. QB – Fantasy Points Allowed Vs QB (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Def vs. RB - Fantasy Points Allowed Vs RB (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Def vs. WR - Fantasy Points Allowed Vs WR (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Def vs. TE - Fantasy Points Allowed Vs TE (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Match-Up Breakdowns
Denver at New York
Could there be a less appealing game to watch to start the week? Perhaps getting this game out of the way first makes the rest of the slate look better. While the Jets have allowed the seventh-most and 10th-most fantasy points to running backs and tight ends respectively, keep in mind that Brett Rypien is at the helm for the Broncos and Courtland Sutton isn’t there to help out in the passing game either so it could be a stuff the box approach for the Jets. The Broncos have given up the fifth-most points to wide receivers so far but that’s been against competent offenses and the Jets don’t have a very healthy receiver corps at the moment.
Baltimore at Washington
What a perfect game for the Ravens to get back on track after the shellacking they took on Monday Night at home and with Chase Young injured for Washington, the pressure should be less on Lamar Jackson than what Kansas City mustered. Expect Baltimore to get back to their bread and butter for rushing the ball a lot and passing to the tight ends as the Football Team is allowing 125 yards per game on the ground right now, before Young’s injury, and allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to TEs. Logan Thomas could be in for another solid game as the Ravens rank fifth in terms of most points allowed to the tight end spot and Washington maybe looking for some garage time yardage through the air.
Los Angeles at Tampa Bay
It’s been a rough start to the year for the Chargers as they have five players on IR already and have made a switch at QB due to a team doctor’s error. While Herbert has looked good in the first two starts of his young career he gets perhaps the toughest match-up yet in a Tampa defense that has been stout against the pass and run to this point in the year. That being said, the Chargers may be able to wear down the Bucs front seven based on how fast they run plays, 11th-fastest in the league, and how many plays they run each game, third-most. Pass-catching running backs have done well against Tampa’s defense and so Austin Ekeler, who’s seen 15 targets the last two games with Herbert, should see a nice bit of work for L.A.
Seattle at Miami
Could this be a track meet on Sunday? The Seahawks have allowed the most passing yards per game to their opponents and that’s not because they’ve been up big on them either, aside from Atlanta. Miami isn’t exactly a defensive powerhouse either as they rank worst in DVOA. Ryan Fitzpatrick hasn’t been Fitzmagic yet this season but with Seattle having a stout rush defense they may turn more to Myles Gaskins’ ability to catch the ball and passing will likely rule the day for both teams and once they get in to the other’s Red Zone, expect scoring to be plentiful as both teams have allowed seven opponent touchdowns so far this year with Miami allowing that on eight trips and Seattle on 10.
Minnesota at Houston
There was some offensive life shown by both teams in Week 3 and now it sets up an interesting match-up for Week 4 that may in fact be the fastest game of the day considering how both offenses can run the ball, in good match-ups, and how bad each team’s rush defense has been so far. The Texans are allowing the most yards on the ground per game at nearly 190 and the Vikings rank 26th with nearly 150 yards allowed. If you’re looking for a potentially less played running back option, David Johnson maybe that option this week while Dalvin Cook and Will Fuller represent the star power plays. Adam Thielen may have a tough day as well.
New Orleans at Detroit
There is a solid narrative that Drew Brees isn’t good outside of New Orleans but this is a dome with astroturf just like the SuperDome is and the Lions’ defense isn’t good against either the run or pass. While the Saints haven’t nearly as good on offense without Michael Thomas, this game should be a get-back-on-track type contest. Meanwhile, the Saints defense is fresh off of giving up 37 to the Packers without Davante Adams and now get Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones to face, with a high-powered passing attack as they pass the ball nearly 60-percent of the time. This could be the highest-scoring game of the slate.
Cleveland at Dallas
The Cowboys rank first in total yards, offensive plays per game, pass attempts, and pass yards and that doesn’t bode well for a Browns’ defense that ranks 22nd in pass yards allowed and has allowed the 10th most points to opposing QBs and the sixth-most to opposing wideouts. Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and CeeDee Lamb could be in a for a nice game as could Dalton Schultz. It’s not as if the Cowboys’ defense has been lockdown though as they’ve been gone through like a sieve so far this year and Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham could connect for a good Week 4.
Jacksonville at Cincinnati
Let’s get ready for a battle of the running backs in this one. Neither defense has been great against the rush and James Robinson could have a very good day facing the 31st-ranked rush defense. No layer of the Jaguars defense is particularly threatening at this point and so Joe Burrow and A.J. Green and Joe Mixon should all be safe plays in this one and it might even be a sneaky place to play Drew Sample as well. Gardner Minshew might have a tougher day but if the running game can take the pressure off the Jaguars can take advantage of the Bengals allowing a 60-percent scoring rate inside the Red Zone and six of eight total touchdowns given up coming from there.
Indianapolis at Chicago
Is the Colts defense really this good? It’s hard to tell given the softness of the schedule so far and we may not know much else after Week 4 either with the newly installed Nick Foles at the helm of the Bears offense now. The Bears offense looked far better with Foles under center and the passing attack saw a big boost as Allen Robinson finally became a threat. Whether that was the backup QB magic that we often see work in those situations or Foles really is the best choice for this offense will be tested this week and they may represent a contrarian play for DFS slates.
Arizona at Carolina
It’s been a rough start to the season for the Panthers with a complete rebuild of the defense in-process and losing their main legitimate weapon on offense but Christian McCaffrey’s fill-in Mike Davis should be able to have another solid week this week as the Cardinals rush defense isn’t much to write home about as they allow 110 yards a game and nearly 23 fantasy points to the position. The Panthers' lack of rush defense is well-known and so Kenyan Drake should be a major factor in this affair and while the pass defense is better, it’s still just 24th in the league with nearly 260 yards allowed through the air.
New York at Los Angeles
The tough schedule to start the year continues for the Giants with a trip to L.A. The coverage defense hasn’t been great for the Rams yet as they’re still in the bottom third of rankings for passing yards allowed and rank 21st in DVOA. New York though has to get something going on offense as they rank in the bottom six in nearly every category offensively including being dead last in all rushing categories and second-to-last in total yards, points per game, and pace. Darius Slayton and Evan Engram could be interesting plays this week though as the Rams have had trouble with speedy downfield receivers and tight ends while the typical Rams weapons are in play again.
Buffalo at Las Vegas
Two of the most surprising teams to start the year meet up in Sin City as two top-15 offenses collide with two bottom-third defenses in terms of total yardage gained and allowed. If you’ve been disappointed with Devin Singletary to this point, this might be a get-back-on-track game for him as the Raiders have allowed the most points to RBs this year and while the Bills only allow 106 yards on the ground per game, good for eighth-best, they allow 4.6 yards per attempt which ranks 19th and so Josh Jacobs volume of work could cause a problem for them over four quarters. The Bills have been surprisingly soft in the passing game on defense so Derek Carr might see a really good performance on Sunday along with Darren Waller and Henry Ruggs.
New England at Kansas City
Is this the premier match-up of the weekend? It’s pretty clear that it should be just based on the recent history between these two teams in the regular and post- seasons. By now we know what these two teams bring to the table in terms of offense especially with the Chiefs and even though New England has Cam Newton under center, they don’t look to be missing a beat at all. The interesting part of this match-up will be to see what the Patriots do scheme-wise to try and slow down the Chiefs' immense offensive threats and how similar of scheme the Chiefs defense plays to the one they punished the Ravens with last week.
Philadelphia at San Francisco
The Niners are likely very happy to be off the turf of MetLife Stadium that cost them several key players on both sides of the ball the last two weeks but the match-up is certainly tougher for them this week. The Eagles have been a deceptively good defense so far ranking top-five in fewest yards allowed and yards per play allowed as well as being top-10 in the rushing and passing departments too. The Niners didn’t miss a beat in Week 3 hanging 30+ on the Giants and in order to do that to Philadelphia they’ll need a big game from George Kittle which is possible since the Eagles give up the eighth-most points to opposing TEs so far.
Atlanta at Green Bay
Vegas has this game as the highest over/under of the week at 57 and why shouldn’t they? The Packers have put up no fewer than 37 points in a game this season and last week was without Davante Adams who could be back for this game. The Falcons have blown two huge leads in three games this year and their secondary is about to get torn to pieces by Aaron Rodgers and company. Even in the coldish weather expected at Lambeau for this one, a track meet should break out as the Packers defense isn’t great at stopping opposing passing or rushing attacks, and with all of the firepower on Atlanta’s offense, their job isn’t getting any easier.