Week 3 comes with a bit more of a sample size for the match-ups after two full games being played. That being said, there were a ton of injuries in Week 2 that will drastically change the way several teams run their offenses and defenses for the next few weeks. It’s important to take these numbers into context as to who these teams have played the first couple of weeks and how those games played out including when injuries happened to key players. There are some potential barn burners on the docket this weekend again and making note of key injuries will help take advantage of good match-ups or perhaps sneaky ones.
Below is a key that defines each stat category and how they are ranked. The color-coding that shows for each matchup is geared toward looking from an offensive player’s perspective. So the more green you see, the better that matchup is for an opposing offensive player, and vice versa the more red you see, the worse for an offensive player that matchup is that week.
*The Def vs. Pos categories use .5 PPR scoring for the points.
Key
Offensive Rankings
Pace – How many seconds it takes a team to run a play (1-fastest, 32-slowest)
PPG – Points scored per game (1-most, 32-least)
T.O.P. – Time of Possession (1-most, 32 least)
Total Yards – Total Yards Per Game Offensively (1-most, 32 least)
RZ % - Red Zone TD Scoring Percentage (1-best, 32-worst)
Off Plays – Total Number of Offensive Plays Run Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Rush Att. – Total Number of Rushing Attempts Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Rush % - Percentage of Offensive Plays That Are Runs (1-highest, 32-lowest)
Rush Yds – Rushing Yards Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Rush YPA – Rushing Yards Per Attempt (1-most, 32-least)
Pass Att. – Total Number of Pass Attempts Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Pass % - Percentage of Offensive Plays That Are Pass (1-highest, 32-lowest)
Pass Yds – Passing Yards Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Pass YPA – Passing Yards Per Attempt (1-most, 32-least)
Defensive Rankings
DVOA – Football Outsiders Defensive Value Over Average (Negative numbers are better) (1-best, 32-worst)
Yds/G Allowed – Yards Per Game Against (1-least, 32-most)
Yds/P Allowed – Yards Per Play Against (1-least, 32-most)
Rush Yds/G – Rushing Yards Per Game Against (1-least, 32-most)
Rush Yds/Att. – Rushing Yards Per Attempt Against (1-least, 32-most)
Pass Yds/G – Passing Yards Per Game Against (1-least, 32-most)
Pass Yds/Att. – Passing Yards Per Attempt Against (1-least, 32-most)
Def vs. QB – Fantasy Points Allowed Vs QB (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Def vs. RB - Fantasy Points Allowed Vs RB (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Def vs. WR - Fantasy Points Allowed Vs WR (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Def vs. TE - Fantasy Points Allowed Vs TE (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Match-Up Breakdowns
Miami at Jacksonville
Both defenses have been very beatable this year as they rank in the top-seven in passing yards per game allowed and the only reason that the Jaguars aren’t higher in the rushing yards allowed is because the Colts had Marlon Mack go down early in Week 1. The Thursday games have been shootouts so far and this one has the makings of a third-straight such game with quarterbacks that have been better-than-advertised and two defenses allowing top-nine points to the position through two weeks.
Houston at Pittsburgh
It’s been a couple of tough weeks for the Texans and it’s not going to get any easier against the Steelers who have one of the top defenses in the league. The Texans defense hasn’t been great at stopping offenses, though they have faced the Chiefs and Ravens so not the easiest of schemes to stop, but now they get the Steelers who have also been a solid offense so far. If there is an interesting match-up to look for from the Texans perspective, since the Steelers have the match-up in their advantage overall, the Texans have passed the ball nearly two-thirds of the time and the Steelers are allowing the 11th-most points to wide receivers facing the Giants and Broncos.
Cincinnati at Philadelphia
It’s been a rough couple of weeks for the Eagles after losing to the Washington Football Team and Rams but the offensive line looked better in Week 2 as did the running game. This sets up well for the Eagles though as the Bengals has been one of the worst defenses in the league for the first few games. Miles Sanders appears to have a good match-up this week with the Bengals allowing the second-most points to running backs so far this year but a good cheap DFS dive could be the Bengals’ tight end Drew Sample after the Eagles have been smoked by Logan Thomas and Tyler Higbee in the first couple of weeks and the Bengals pass the most per game.
San Francisco at New York
The Niners hated this turf, and rightfully so, last week when they played in this same stadium against the Jets and it paid a toll on both sides of the ball in terms of injuries. The Giants are pretty banged up in their own right so it will really come down to who can get their new-look offense going sooner than the other team. The stats might not hold quite as much weight here without Jimmy Garoppolo, Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, Saquon Barkley, and Sterling Shepard all out or likely to be out.
Las Vegas at New England
The Raiders are a surprise 2-0 team after an exciting win over the Saints last week while New England fell about a yard and a half shy from winning in Seattle. Both teams have good offenses to this point in the season but both defenses are still rounding into form and are stronger in different ways as the Raiders are tough against opposing quarterbacks and the Patriots are tough against Tight Ends which might make Darren Waller a contrarian play.
Tennessee at Minnesota
This game has the ability to get out of control quickly as the Vikings defense hasn’t been good at all and now losing Anthony Bar for the season isn’t going to help things either. Expect Derrick Henry to have a big day as well as the receivers for Tennessee as the Vikings are allowing the second-most points to that position so far.
Washington at Cleveland
This game could actually be a high-scoring affair simply because the defenses are so bad in this game. Both defenses rank in the top-five in most points allowed to QBs however, the interesting part of the game will be the running game as both teams are in the top-third of the league in terms of rushing attempts and percentage of plays called. Cleveland and Washington’s defenses though rank among the seventh-fewest points allowed to running backs for fantasy points.
Los Angeles at Buffalo
The Rams are making their second trip east in two weeks and this match-up figures to be tougher than the first as the Bills defense is stingier than Philly’s. Both offenses have been humming quite a bit to start the year and rank in the top-five of total yards per game. The key matchups to watch here are Devin Singletary and Zach Moss against the Rams rush D that is giving up nearly 130 yards on the ground a game and the Rams’ Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee as the Bills have struggled against slot receivers and tight ends a bit so Higbee could have a nice game again as well.
Chicago at Atlanta
The Falcons air attack has been quite dangerous this year as they had more than 400 yards against Seattle and then hung 39 against Dallas. The Bears defense has been one of the best units in the league this year to this point which sets up an interesting matchup, though one still in the Falcons favor as it’s in the dome of Atlanta rather than at Soldier Field. The Bears offense has been trudging along but might get a break here in what might turn out to be a bit of a track meet at times as the Falcons defense ranks in the top-10 in most points allowed to the QB, WR, and TE.
Carolina at Los Angeles
The first week without Christian McCaffrey is here for Carolina and it couldn’t come at a worse time as the Chargers have been great against the run for the most part this year. Banking on Teddy Bridgewater to win the game might be a tough ask right now as the Chargers pass defense is pretty good too. The Chargers for what it’s worth have gone with Justin Herbert as the starting quarterback after looking good against the Chiefs last week and while the Panthers defense has been decent against the pass, look for Joshua Kelley to have a big day as well as the Panthers are dead last against running backs this year.
New York at Indianapolis
The Jets have not been good offensively to say the least as they rank in the bottom five in nearly every category and on defense the Colts have been just about as good as most thought they could be going into the season. If Phillip Rivers and T.Y. Hill and company can’t get a more consistent offensive flow going this week against another mediocre defense, it will be a hard game to watch.
Dallas at Seattle
In what could be the highest-scoring game of the weekend, the Cowboys look to put their high-flying offense up against the Seahawks. Dallas uses a lot more plays offensively a game to this point than Seattle but that simply means that Seattle has been more efficient and with both teams allowing the wide receivers to run wild to this point, expect a lot of scoring between Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and CeeDee Lamb.
Tampa Bay at Denver
The Buccaneers still aren’t quite rolling just yet on offense but a big piece to that could’ve been Chris Godwin missing last week’s game, a win for Tampa. The Broncos meanwhile lost Courtland Sutton and Drew Lock last week not to mention A.J. Bouye and Von Miller on defense as well. Tampa’s young defense shouldn’t have much of a problem shutting down Jeff Driskel and company which could mean more chances for Tom Brady and the offense to continue to get on the same page and Leonard Fournette could see a lot of work in the second half as well.
Detroit at Arizona
Year two of Kyler Murray in the desert has gotten off to a fast start and he and DeAndre Hopkins appear to have a good connection going. That will be tough to stop for a Lions defense that has been trounced so far this year and if Kenny Golloday doesn’t play again, he’s questionable, Marvin Jones should see a tougher match-up this week than he saw last week against Green Bay.
Green Bay at New Orleans
So both teams didn’t have their top wideout for part of or all of the Week 2 games but the Packers still put up 42 points while the Saints struggled against the Raiders as Brees looked out of sync. Typically at home in New Orleans, the Saints play at better brand of football than on the road but the way the Packers are looking right now it’ll be tough to stop. However, that being said, expect a fall in production from Aaron Jones this week as the Saints rush defense is about as stingy as they come.
Kansas City at Baltimore
The game that everyone is talking about this week and why not, these teams put up fireworks in the playoffs last year and they are nearly the same units that competed then, plus a couple of talented rookies on either side. The Ravens defense has been outstanding this year though against a couple of troubled offenses in Cleveland and Houston while the Chiefs defense is playing a bend-but-don’t-break brand of defense.