The pressure is on for the Xfinity drivers tonight as this is the last chance to lock into the playoffs and secure valuable points to help bolster their playoff standings for the first round. Seven of the 12 spots are locked in already and there aren’t quite as many drivers fighting for spots as we saw in the Cup series a few weeks ago, but there are still win and get in scenarios for a handful of drivers on the outside looking in.
In the June 300-lapper nearly a third of the field didn’t finish the race due to either mechanical issues or accidents and there were three different drivers to lead at least 55 laps in the event. Without much being at stake for many of the drivers in terms of the playoffs and simply just trying to lock down a potential first win at Bristol, this might be a tamer race than what we saw back in June which was also only the third race back after the hiatus starting in March.
Laps led will be a key stat this week as it typically is with short tracks but with the wrecks that tend to happen here as well you can combine a degree of plate strategy as drivers can move up through the field. There has also been two racing grooves here as well which helps drivers be able to move up through the field. Don’t go too far back however as getting lapped early is a concern and if the driver gets lapped that caps the position differential they can wind up with.
Playbook
Chase Briscoe P10 - $11,800
I’ll readily admit that this is a high price for Briscoe as he’s only led 10 laps in five Bristol races but he’s the thing, if he can pull off a similar showing to what he did in June, finishing second and having 10 fastest laps, he’ll get 55 points just four shy of the 59 he needs for 5x value. In five races at Bristol he’s finished top-five three times and with his name being bandied about for the 14-car in the Cup series now would be a good time to add to his laps led total at his best short track and lets not forget the six wins this year.
Austin Cindric P4 - $11,400
Cindric has been a man on a mission of late with five wins in the last 12 races this season and an average finish of 3.83. The issue for Cindric is that he’s been bad at not getting caught up in the wreckfest races this year like Daytona and Pocono and Bristol-1. If he can avoid the wrecks and stay up front he’s got a good chance of leading some laps but there is risk here as he’s been mediocre here to be sure.
Justin Allgaier P1 - $11,000
Allgaier was one bad restart away from winning the June race. He led 156 laps with 54 fastest laps in that race after starting P10 and so now starting P1 gives him a shot to lead the laps earlier in the race than June. Even though he finished P18 in the first race here, he still had 84 DK points even with -8 in PD and had the second-best driver rating in the race at 127.9. Being on the pole and not the most-expensive driver will make him a popular play but the fact that he has four top-fives in the last six races here and it should be five in the last six mitigates the risk of playing a pole-sitter in cash formats.
Ross Chastian P2 - $10,600
Chastain is perhaps the riskiest of the drivers starting this far forward as he’s wrecked out of the last two races here including starting P6 and finishing P28 in the June race. Starting on the outside pole could give him the shot to lead laps early, but his aggressive driving can also be a negative at Bristol and so that makes him squarely in the GPP column to try and get enough laps led and avoid a wreck to hit value.
Noah Gragson P3 - $10,200
Gragson won the race in June after taking the lead away from Allgaier in the final restart and executing down the stretch to lead 55 laps and get 48 fastest laps after starting P9. This time he’s starting closer to the front and has Allgaier right in front of him in the starting order but with his known ability to win restarts here, he should be able to share the lead early on Friday night and perhaps run in the top-five all night. This is the first time he’s this expensive since Dover but if he hangs out where he starts and gets 15-20 total laps led and/or fastest laps he should hit value.
Justin Haley P5 - $9,600
Just looking at the results of the first race at Bristol this season don’t accurately tell the story of Haley’s day as the P17 finish was more due to getting caught in someone else’s wreck than what his car was capable of. The Loop data shows him starting P4 running P3 halfway through the race and being P3 with 30 laps to go before finishing P17 and he also had 29 fastest laps which was the third-most in the race. He’s starting in a similar spot this time around.
Myatt Snider P29 - $8,900
Snider doesn’t get the good fortune to be in the #21 car this time in which he finished P5 after starting P23. Instead he’ll be in the #93 which only managed 16 laps in the first Bristol race. If he can avoid issues he should be able to nab a top-15 finish and finishing P14 or better hits value for him at this price point.
Anthony Alfredo P19 - $8,500
Fast Pasta is in the #21 car on Friday which finished P5 in the June race here starting just a few spots further back than where Alfredo will roll off this time. He’s finished P11 or better in six of the last 10 races he’s run including moving up from P26 to P11 in the first Dover race which is a comparable track to Bristol. If he can harness the speed that was in this car last time and that has gotten the #21 12 top-10s in the 25 races this year, the PD should be pretty nice here.
Timmy Hill P34 - $8,100
Hill is starting WAY back in the pack on Friday night and in the intro we said playing drivers far back might not make a lot of sense here, however Hill is used to moving up here starting in the last third of the field. In seven races here at this level he’s posted an average finish of 23.3 while starting nearly 29th on average and in June he finished P14. He is in a different car this time but he still has plenty of ability and a shot at another top-20 finish even with this starting spot.
Ryan Sieg P11 - $7,800
Sieg was running P9 in the earlier race here before a tire issue caused an off-schedule stop and cost him several spots at the end of the race to finish P16. If he finishes P9, like he was running in June, he hits value. He might be overlooked simply because of starting spot and a perceived lack of value but it’s there if you simply look at where he was running during the last race.
Jeremy Clements P16 - $7,600
Clements has six top-20s in seven Xfinity races here since 2017 and he finished P8 in June. The starting spot is a bit higher than I’d really like to see but if he finishes P11 he hits value at this price. A narrative for Clements too is that he’s sitting 13th in the playoff standings, 49 points out behind Brandon Brown, and so he’s in a win or go home (so to speak) spot this week and that kind of pressure can lead to good things. He’s safe enough to play in cash formats.
Gray Gaulding P28 - $7,400
Gaulding is in the cheat code car this week...the #07. Not only that but he’s starting P28 which gives him quite a nice amount of PD upside for him. In the two races he’s run in the Xfinity series at Bristol he’s not finished worse than P15 as well. The mid-tier price likely makes him a popular play this week but the car combined with how well Gaulding runs here makes it tough to look past.
Tommy Joe Martins P26 - $5,700
Seven top-20s in the last 10 races for Martins is the kind of consistency he wasn’t able to achieve earlier in the year with mechanical issues dogging him. If he cracks the top-20 again on Friday he hits value easily. He started P35 and finished P23 in June with an average running position of 23.8 and ran in the top-15 16-percent of the time. All he needs is a top-20 and he’s definitely proven to be capable of it.
Josh Williams P18 - $5,200
The scoring has been spotty with Williams to be sure. There’s no way around that but if we can catch lightning in a bottle twice with him, he’s well with the price. He has six races at Bristol with two top-20s and one top-10 which came here in June in this 92-car. Williams started P23 in that race and had an average running position of 13.4 meaning that P9 finish wasn’t really a fluke. Less appealing in Cash simply because it could be a rough day just as easily as a good day.
Colby Howard P31 - $4,800
Howard was running inside the top-15 much of the race including being P13 halfway through. He got into the wall late and dropped a few spots to finish P19. That’s still a top-20 finish after starting P26. In four of the last six races that he’s started P26 or worse he’s moved up between five and 14 spots and in three of those he’s moved up at least 11 spots. In the same car as June and showing an ability to move up through the field as well as seeing his price drop from $7,400 a month ago to now, it’s hard to not to fit him in a few lineups.
Kody Vanderwal P33 - $4,600
If you’re going stars and scrubs to try and maximize laps led with some of the guys starting up front, you’ll need cheap guys in the lineup. Vanderwal is that. In the June race he started P30 and finished P21 in this same car. Since then it’s not really been anything to write home about but why not take a shot that a guy this cheap can avoid the wrecks and move up some spots and hit value. Vanderwal only needs to finish P27 to hit 5x and if he finishes P21 again that’s 7.6x.