It feels very strange that we are this late in the NASCAR season and yet this will be the first time the Cup cars venture to the capital of Virginia for a race. Typically the Action Track, as it’s known, hosts two Cup races a year but due to the schedule crunch with Covid, it lost one of those dates this year. That’s significant because there aren’t any notes for the drivers this year for this track like they had at Darlington last week and yet this is a playoff race.

Richmond is a three-quarter of a mile short track with relatively flat banking and it’s in a tri-oval configuration meaning the front stretch is curved as well. So that means that passing here gets interesting to try and pull off as the cars aren’t going in a straight line much around the short track. Speaking to that is the fact that the last five races have seen an average of five drivers move up double-digit spots in each race.

The race number is the number of laps this week so be prepared for laps led to be a key stat this week as it typically is with every short track race.

Toyota has been a dominant manufacturer here at Richmond as not only have they posted the above winning percentage in the last 10 races but they’ve also won the last four races in a row.

From the Pole19.0%24
From the Front Row29.4%37
From the Top-557.1%72
From the Top-1077.8%98
From the Top-1584.9%107
From Outside the Top-2010.3%13
Out of: 126

The above point about hard to pass is proven when looking at winning percentages from starting spots inside the top-15.

Core Drivers By Tier

Tier 1 - Martin Truex Jr.

  • Truex has flat out owned RIchmond of late with two wins last year and he’s been near unbeatable at short tracks as well

  • The dominator points are in his favor as he leads the field in them over the last four races here

  • He nearly won the Southern 500 last week and has eight straight top-five finishes this season

Tier 2 - Jimmie Johnson

  • Johnson has continued to do well at RIchmond the last few years with three top-10s in the last four races.

  • He’s also moved up through the field well here in that span with an 11.2 PD mark.

  • Johnson has the fifth-best average finish in the last five races this season in the field.

Tier 3 - Austin Dillon

  • Dillon was one lap shy of winning the Southern 500 last weekend

  • He’s posted two top-10s in the last four races here while moving up 5.5 spots a race

  • While last weekend solidified his playoff standing, a win gives him an even bigger buffer

Contrarian Play - Clint Bowyer

  • Bowyer’s best track is coming next weekend and so people might be looking past him this weekend.

  • Richmond has been good for him with four top-10s in the last four races,

  • His positive 7.0 PD mark is one of the tops in the field.

Fade - Ryan Blaney

  • Don’t mean to pile on Blaney but this just hasn’t been a good track for him

  • Last year he started P15 and P22 and finished P18 and P25 respectively and averages moving back 7.5 spots a race.

  • At this price point on both sites, it’s hard to swallow the fact that he’s not cracked 2x value over the last five races here.

Last Four Races At Richmond

Tier 1

   Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
DriverTeam#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Denny HamlinJGR410.59.46.83.73001
Kevin HarvickSHR43.55.14.8-1.33100
Martin Truex JrJGR44.33.64.8-0.53010
Chase ElliottHendrick413.810.18.852020
Brad KeselowskiPenske4115.87.33.71300
Kyle BuschJGR412.85.739.83100
Joey LoganoPenske411.59.183.52020
  LLFLDominatorTop-15QPAvg.LC
Driver#/Race/RacePts./ RaceRate/RaceRating/Race
Denny Hamlin41.517.89.30.926.897.6400.3
Kevin Harvick419.530.820.31.017.0113.8400.5
Martin Truex Jr4144.838.355.31.023.3128.6400.5
Chase Elliott48.56.55.40.818.593.0400.3
Brad Keselowski446.823.523.41.028.5106.9400.5
Kyle Busch4106.849.051.20.923.0118.7400.5
Joey Logano436.015.316.60.818.5103.4400.3

Tier 2

   Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
DriverTeam#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Ryan BlaneyPenske413.517.421-7.50002
Kurt BuschGanassi45.5914.8-9.30022
Erik JonesJGR416.514.110.560030
Jimmie JohnsonHendrick420.514.29.311.20310
Aric AlmirolaSHR417.311.615.51.81002
Clint BowyerSHR414.88.87.871300
Alex BowmanHendrick41417.417.8-3.80012
Matt DiBenedettoWood Bros.421.523.322.3-0.80011
  LLFLDominatorTop-15QPAvg.LC
Driver#/Race/RacePts./ RaceRate/RaceRating/Race
Ryan Blaney40.03.31.60.412.565.4399.3
Kurt Busch424.510.811.50.823.593.6399.5
Erik Jones40.04.32.10.620.582.9400.5
Jimmie Johnson40.04.82.40.621.582.2400.5
Aric Almirola40.38.84.40.621.085.2399.8
Clint Bowyer411.315.310.40.925.5101.4400.5
Alex Bowman40.00.00.00.414.571.4399.3
Matt DiBenedetto40.01.00.50.26.355.0397.5

Tier 3

   Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
DriverTeam#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Ricky Stenhouse JrJTG41416.817-30021
Austin DillonRCR41814.412.55.50210
William ByronHendrick416.516.517.5-10021
Cole CusterSHR11024.626-160000
Christopher BellLFR         
Bubba WallacePetty424.824.6231.80010
Ryan NewmanRoush418.31316.81.51110
Tyler ReddickRCR         
Matt KensethGanassi11721.325-80000
John H. NemechekFront Row         
Ty DillonGermain428.325.1244.30001
Ryan PreeceJTG218.526.425.5-70001
Chris BuescherRoush417.82527.5-9.70000
Daniel SuarezGaunt427.815.113.8140202
  LLFLDominatorTop-15QPAvg.LC
Driver#/Race/RacePts./ RaceRate/RaceRating/Race
Ricky Stenhouse Jr40.520.010.10.417.077.4400
Austin Dillon40.08.54.30.620.882.2400
William Byron40.04.32.10.516.873.1399
Cole Custer10.01.00.50.03.057.4396
Christopher Bell   0.0    
Bubba Wallace40.02.81.40.11.855.0398
Ryan Newman40.06.33.10.732.380.6392
Tyler Reddick   0.0    
Matt Kenseth10.02.01.00.16.062.9396
John H. Nemechek   0.0    
Ty Dillon40.01.30.60.01.851.6398
Ryan Preece20.02.51.30.01.049.5397
Chris Buescher40.04.82.40.14.053.1397
Daniel Suarez40.00.030.00.026.376.51600

Tier 4

   Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
DriverTeam#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Corey LajoieGo Fas32728.729.3-2.30000
Michael McDowellFront Row41926.928.3-9.30000
JJ YeleyRick Ware13833.93440000
Joey GasePWR236353420000
James DavisonRick Ware         
Timmy HillMBM13738.639-20000
Reed SorensonSpire23537.338-30000
Quin HouffStarCom23235.835-30000
Brennan PoolePremium        
  LLFLDominatorTop-15QPAvg.LC
Driver#/Race/RacePts./ RaceRate/RaceRating/Race
Corey Lajoie30.01.30.70.00.043.8395
Michael McDowell40.06.83.40.01.852.2359
JJ Yeley10.01.00.50.00.031.5391
Joey Gase20.01.50.80.00.029.4388
James Davison   0.0    
Timmy Hill10.00.00.00.00.026.2382
Reed Sorenson20.00.00.00.00.023.8211
Quin Houff20.00.50.30.00.025.4385
Brennan Poole   0.0   

Top-20 Drivers Over Last 8 Richmond Races

  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Kevin Harvick85.86.46.1-0.36110
Denny Hamlin88.38.45.336101
Kyle Busch810.46.164.44301
Joey Logano89.610.56.634220
Martin Truex Jr86.65.17.6-14211
Brad Keselowski812.16.67.153320
Ryan Newman817.813.515.42.42211
Chase Elliott816.913.312.54.42131
Jimmie Johnson816.513.38.87.71430
Kurt Busch85.89.211.1-5.31322
  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Clint Bowyer81914.815.63.41310
Aric Almirola820.515.615.84.71104
Ricky Stenhouse Jr812.81716.9-4.11023
Daniel Suarez62317.412.310.70312
Austin Dillon82015.515.54.50222
Erik Jones61616.714.31.70130
Matt Kenseth5712.526.2-19.20100
William Byron416.516.517.5-10021
Alex Bowman41417.417.8-3.80012
Bubba Wallace424.824.6231.80010
  LLFLDominatorLCAvg.
Driver#/Race/RacePts/ Race/RaceRating
Kevin Harvick819.030.620.1401.6110.3
Denny Hamlin831.924.320.1401.5104.5
Kyle Busch868.035.334.7401.6112.4
Joey Logano821.110.910.7401.5100.7
Martin Truex Jr8121.342.151.4401.5120.7
Brad Keselowski839.031.925.7401.6107.5
Ryan Newman83.64.63.2396.681
Chase Elliott84.34.53.3401.585.2
Jimmie Johnson85.55.84.3401.685.9
Kurt Busch819.59.99.8401.195.9
  LLFLDominatorLCAvg.
Driver#/Race/RacePts/ Race/RaceRating
Clint Bowyer85.610.16.5401.382.3
Aric Almirola80.16.33.2401.377.9
Ricky Stenhouse Jr80.313.87.0401.576.8
Daniel Suarez60.07.83.9400.774.5
Austin Dillon80.04.92.5401.076.9
Erik Jones60.05.32.7335.076.8
Matt Kenseth551.626.426.1357.694.4
William Byron40.04.32.2399.073.1
Alex Bowman40.34.32.2399.371.4
Bubba Wallace40.02.81.4398.055

Top-20 Driver At Similar Races

(Richmond, Phoenix, New Hampshire)

  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos. TopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W51015
Kyle Busch156.96.66.10.85101314
Kevin Harvick156.77.36.9-0.23111314
Martin Truex Jr155.75.77.9-2.2291113
Denny Hamlin157.39.17.00.32101013
Brad Keselowski1510.78.310.20.5141013
Joey Logano1512.511.411.90.6151012
Chase Elliott158.511.413.1-4.604712
Clint Bowyer1515.711.813.81.902910
Aric Almirola1515.713132.70478
Kurt Busch158.210.914.5-6.30169
  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos. TopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W51015
Jimmie Johnson1517.513.612.35.200614
Erik Jones1510.915.215.1-4.20269
Ryan Blaney159.413.216.9-7.50355
Ryan Newman1420.114.514.06.101510
Matt Kenseth714.315.318.4-4.10234
Daniel Suarez1522.718.816.46.30067
William Byron1215.614.714.90.70028
Tyler Reddick2211521.5-0.50011
Austin Dillon1520.718.518.52.20036
Cole Custer313.317.414.3-1.00022
  LedFast LapsDominatorLCAvg.
Driver#/Race/RacePts. / Race/RaceRating
Kyle Busch1592.845.345.9319.2119
Kevin Harvick1521.026.418.5328.1110.1
Martin Truex Jr1575.434.135.9335.9114.8
Denny Hamlin1529.823.919.4338.2104.6
Brad Keselowski1534.721.319.3337.7102.8
Joey Logano1519.99.69.8321.594.2
Chase Elliott1511.713.09.4327.595.2
Clint Bowyer153.08.45.0323.189.8
Aric Almirola155.58.75.7337.785.8
Kurt Busch1516.912.210.3325.290.9
  LedFast LapsDominatorLCAvg.
Driver#/Race/RacePts. / Race/RaceRating
Jimmie Johnson150.32.81.5337.483.3
Erik Jones151.06.03.3319.980.3
Ryan Blaney156.85.54.5316.183.2
Ryan Newman141.93.92.4337.178.3
Matt Kenseth713.315.010.8295.786.2
Daniel Suarez150.04.02.0323.469.2
William Byron121.33.32.0338.377.7
Tyler Reddick20.020.510.3282.579.6
Austin Dillon150.24.52.3322.968.1
Cole Custer30.02.01.0337.774.1

Momentum

Driver

Tier 1

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos.    LLFLDominatorAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20/Race/RacePts./RaceRating
Denny Hamlin57.26.97.6-0.4401031.823.219.6112.0
Kevin Harvick57.411.68.6-1.2300252.230.228.2103.0
Martin Truex Jr56.66.76.60400061.630.830.8118.1
Chase Elliott510.414.913.4-331013521.619.692.0
Brad Keselowski5913.210.2-1.2022024.62.886.3
Kyle Busch51412.518.2-4.2210078.86.289.7
Joey Logano57.88.410.6-2.8220010.46.86.0100.4

Tier 2

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos.    LLFLDominatorAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20/Race/RacePts./RaceRating
Ryan Blaney513.413.617.4-401107.64.24.082.0
Kurt Busch514.816.921.8-702101.25.43.074.6
Erik Jones518.414.816.81.6102032.82.283.3
Jimmie Johnson5129.89.82.211120.610.65.595.2
Aric Almirola58.41615-6.602024.674.780.1
Clint Bowyer510.811.311.4-0.60311052.588.1
Alex Bowman514.215.910.2402100.49.24.788.3
Matt DiBenedetto51015.517-701215.61.42.173.8

Tier 3

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos.    LLFLDominatorAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20/Race/RacePts./RaceRating
Ricky Stenhouse Jr52320.522.80.201030.252.668.9
Austin Dillon415.515.112.82.7111012.39.57.884.5
William Byron510.612.39.21.4211054.63.695.8
Cole Custer517.416.5170.4002002.21.178.2
Christopher Bell520.22023.4-3.200110.43.61.964.5
Bubba Wallace521.421.323.2-1.8100000.60.359.8
Ryan Newman518.42122.6-4.20022021.066.2
Tyler Reddick516.817.420.2-3.400110.23.82.072.5
Matt Kenseth521.819.421.20.600200.20.80.565.8
John H. Nemechek525.623.625.20.4001000.40.256.8
Ty Dillon52122.823.2-2.2000302.41.257.4
Ryan Preece528.22325.62.6000201.20.660.2
Chris Buescher51517.7141110203.41.772.1
Daniel Suarez529.625.627.22.400003.80.61.353.1

Tier 4

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos.    LLFLDominatorAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20/Race/RacePts./RaceRating
Corey Lajoie52826.928.4-0.40000010.548.5
Michael McDowell52319.518.24.801110.410.668.3
JJ Yeley533.634.634.6-10000000.034.4
Joey Gase43837.734.83.20000000.027.5
James Davison337.334.5361.3000000.30.233.5
Timmy Hill534.834.631.63.2000001.60.834.5
Reed Sorenson236.535.2360.5000000.50.334.0
Quin Houff534.234.130.83.4000000.60.334.0
Brennan Poole530.429.827.43001001.40.742.7

Team

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos.    LapsFast
Team#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20LedLaps
Chip Ganassi Racing1018.318.221.5-3.202301462
Front Row Motorsports1024.321.621.72.60121414
Hendrick Motorsports2011.813.210.71.26533820920
Joe Gibbs Racing2011.610.212.3-0.81113020681312
JTG Daugherty Racing1025.621.824.21.40105262
Richard Childress Racing916.216.316.5-0.41121113120
Roush Fenway Racing1016.719.418.3-1.61124054
Stewart-Haas Racing2011.013.913.0-2.035351136888
Team Penske1510.111.712.7-2.72530300234

Finish Ranges By Starting Spot Ranges

StartFinish Ranges
Range1-56-1011-1516-2020+
1-5104330
6-1045533
11-1522547
16-20231410
21-25031115
26-30131213
31-35103213
36-40001111
Total2020202072

Weekly Rankings

Tier 1

DriverDK$FD $Race HistRecent FormDK L2FD L2DK L5FD L5Track HistType Hist
Denny Hamlin$11,600$13,500439513613
Kevin Harvick$11,300$14,0002412711732
Martin Truex Jr$10,900$13,00021222264
Chase Elliott$10,500$11,400812176143109
Brad Keselowski$10,100$12,50057644555
Kyle Busch$9,800$11,700119111121
Joey Logano$9,300$12,20079535446

Tier 2

DriverDK$FD $Race HistRecent FormDK L2FD L2DK L5FD L5Track HistType Hist
Ryan Blaney$9,500$9,80019182572782317
Kurt Busch$9,100$10,9001323248187813
Erik Jones$8,900$9,6001015711021115
Jimmie Johnson$8,700$10,000961026177
Aric Almirola$8,500$10,2001414206155158
Clint Bowyer$8,300$10,50061083831410
Alex Bowman$7,700$9,3001872252041820
Matt DiBenedetto$7,500$8,80020161942462623

Tier 3

DriverDK$FD $Race HistRecent FormDK L2FD L2DK L5FD L5Track HistType Hist
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$8,100$6,50016261461751621
Austin Dillon$7,900$9,0001111138971319
William Byron$7,400$9,1001751691691714
Cole Custer$7,300$7,600251631 33102412
Christopher Bell$7,200$8,400402931 34 4029
Bubba Wallace$7,100$6,00021271141941925
Ryan Newman$7,000$8,000152545761211
Tyler Reddick$6,900$8,200402131 34 4024
Matt Kenseth$6,700$7,000232231 29112518
John H. Nemechek$6,500$5,000403131 34 4040
Ty Dillon$6,300$4,50022271521222022
Ryan Preece$6,100$4,50024322632632227
Chris Buescher$5,900$6,20026132773082726
Daniel Suarez$5,600$5,00012333131916

Tier 4

DriverDK$FD $Race HistRecent FormDK L2FD L2DK L5FD L5Track HistType Hist
Corey Lajoie$5,800$4,00028352342252831
Michael McDowell$5,400$5,50027192962172128
JJ Yeley$5,300$3,00029402122312933
Joey Gase$5,200$3,00029411812522936
James Davison$5,100$3,000404231 34 4032
Timmy Hill$5,000$3,000333731 3243337
Reed Sorenson$4,900$3,00032423052863134
Quin Houff$4,700$3,00031362833133234
Brennan Poole$4,600$3,500403431 34 4030

Average Fantasy Values

Tier 1

 DKDKDKSeas.FDFDFDSeas.
DriverSalaryL2L5AvgSalaryL2L5Avg
Denny Hamlin$11,6005.374.174.47$13,5006.225.634.49
Kevin Harvick$11,3004.654.605.46$14,0005.305.334.63
Martin Truex Jr$10,9009.908.864.21$13,0007.736.804.21
Chase Elliott$10,5003.244.154.22$11,4005.966.574.67
Brad Keselowski$10,1006.496.194.47$12,5006.426.324.59
Kyle Busch$9,80010.969.433.26$11,7007.797.814.12
Joey Logano$9,3006.805.993.99$12,2006.676.564.32

Tier 2

 DKDKDKSeas.FDFDFDSeas.
DriverSalaryL2L5AvgSalaryL2L5Avg
Ryan Blaney$9,5002.131.934.04$9,8005.905.844.99
Kurt Busch$9,1002.283.713.47$10,9005.616.114.58
Erik Jones$8,9006.214.853.66$9,6008.367.745.18
Jimmie Johnson$8,7005.065.594.15$10,0007.487.785.01
Aric Almirola$8,5002.794.044.02$10,2005.926.535.01
Clint Bowyer$8,3005.725.564.06$10,5007.316.924.80
Alex Bowman$7,7002.603.213.88$9,3006.246.594.96
Matt DiBenedetto$7,5002.932.604.04$8,8006.776.355.71

Tier 3

 DKDKDKSeas.FDFDFDSeas.
DriverSalaryL2L5AvgSalaryL2L5Avg
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$8,1003.953.722.82$6,5009.889.456.15
Austin Dillon$7,9004.275.014.24$9,0007.207.785.65
William Byron$7,4003.513.734.27$9,1006.796.915.36
Cole Custer$7,300 0.343.68$7,600 6.136.04
Christopher Bell$7,200  4.05$8,400  5.57
Bubba Wallace$7,1004.753.403.63$6,00010.809.787.38
Ryan Newman$7,0007.895.593.38$8,00010.068.695.58
Tyler Reddick$6,900  4.40$8,200  5.84
Matt Kenseth$6,700 1.773.23$7,000 5.056.30
John H. Nemechek$6,500  3.90$5,000  8.85
Ty Dillon$6,3003.774.194.27$4,50012.8813.339.93
Ryan Preece$6,1002.092.093.14$4,50011.4811.488.47
Chris Buescher$5,9001.481.394.43$6,2007.677.687.52
Daniel Suarez$5,6008.048.554.65$5,00014.3415.048.75

Tier 4

 DKDKDKSeas.FDFDFDSeas.
DriverSalaryL2L5AvgSalaryL2L5Avg
Corey Lajoie$5,8002.412.844.12$4,00012.7612.7410.46
Michael McDowell$5,4000.422.945.53$5,5006.658.998.76
JJ Yeley$5,3002.742.742.89$3,00016.0316.0311.43
Joey Gase$5,2003.172.452.34$3,00016.2315.5810.19
James Davison$5,100  1.80$3,000  6.94
Timmy Hill$5,000 0.602.98$3,000 13.0710.02
Reed Sorenson$4,9000.201.873.21$3,0007.9311.0111.07
Quin Houff$4,7001.331.332.98$3,00014.3314.3310.95
Brennan Poole$4,600  3.69$3,500  10.25