Driver DK$ FD $ Qual DK 5x DK 6x Comments
Aric Almirola $8,500 $10,500 1 42.5 51.0 The pole sitter hasn't finished worse than P10 in the last five races and leading 33 laps while finishing P6 would get him nearly 6x
Denny Hamlin $10,400 $13,400 2 52.0 62.4 He's topped 50 DK points in 4 of the last 9 points races and will need laps led to hit that again on Sunday while not dropping too far back
Chase Elliott $9,100 $12,700 3 45.5 54.6 Elliott has one top-five and no top-10s in 6 races here. He'll need a top-five or top-10 with dominator pts & more the further back he falls
Brad Keselowski $9,500 $12,000 4 47.5 57.0 He's been just about at or over the 5x value 5 of the last 9 points races. New Hampshire has been a spotty track for him though
Kyle Busch $9,300 $12,600 5 46.5 55.8 Busch has 6 top-10s in the last 8 races here including a couple of wins. He's hit value each of the last three races hitting 6.5x at Kansas
Clint Bowyer $7,200 $9,400 6 36.0 43.2 Bowyer is excited about the race starting spot for once but he hasn't finished top-10 here since 2017. If he finishes P6 or P7 he hits value
Kevin Harvick $11,600 $14,200 7 58.0 69.6 Harvick has won three of the last five races at NHMS. The price is steep but a P3 and his normal 13 dominator pts here hit value
Alex Bowman $8,100 $9,800 8 40.5 48.6 Bowman hit value just 3 times in the last 9 points races, two of those he started P8. He'll need to finish better than P8 & get fastest laps
Joey Logano $9,800 $11,000 9 49.0 58.8 Logano hasn't adjusted well to no practice. Outside of Martinsville, he's hit value just once since (Texas). Finishing P2 would hit value
Kurt Busch $7,700 $10,000 10 38.5 46.2 Busch has settled into this price range for a while now & has broken 40 pts once in the last 10 races, 55 at Kentucky w/ 28 fastest laps
Martin Truex Jr $10,700 $12,200 11 53.5 64.2 He's done well at NHMS with 3 top-5s in the last 4 races. The last 4 races this year have been wild swings for MTJ. Expect an upswing
Ryan Blaney $11,100 $11,600 12 55.5 66.6 5x might be tough for Blaney to hit this week given the price tag. If he repeats his P4 finish, that's 48 points so he'd need dominator pts
Tyler Reddick $7,500 $8,200 13 37.5 45.0 The last four times he's started this high he's finished worse three times. He'll need a P9 to hit 5x safely. He ran P4 and P25 in Xfinity
Cole Custer $6,700 $7,700 14 33.5 40.2 Custer has been better when starting further back but he really only needs to move up a few spots to hit value.
Bubba Wallace $6,500 $6,300 15 32.5 39.0 Wallace is fading a tad of late. He needs a P13 to hit value which he's done 2x in the last 10 races (none in the last 8). Unlikely he hits
William Byron $7,900 $8,500 16 39.5 47.4 In six of the last nine points races Byron has finished better than where he's started and notched a couple top-10s. He'll need P10 for 5x
Erik Jones $8,900 $10,300 17 44.5 53.4 Jones has been hit and miss this season but the speed has been there two races in a row now with two top-6s. He'll nee a P8 for 5x
Michael McDowell $6,300 $6,000 18 31.5 37.8 His average finish here is 23.0 and starting P18 doesn't bode well for the value. McDowell needs to finished P15 to hit 5x
Matt DiBenedetto $8,300 $8,700 19 41.5 49.8 Matty D has been good at shorter tracks over the last year & this fits that bill. He has a top-five here & the 21-car has three top-17s
Jimmie Johnson $8,700 $9,300 20 43.5 52.2 Johnson hasn't been able to put a full race together yet but starting P20 for a fourth straight race gives him another shot. He'll need a P10
Matt Kenseth $7,600 $8,000 21 38.0 45.6 Kenseth has been great at New Hampshire in his career and playing him a his great tracks has paid off. He needs just a P13 finish
Ryan Newman $6,600 $7,400 22 33.0 39.6 Newman's average finish of 13.3 over the last four races here nearly hits value. If he moves up six spots he'll hit value, a P13 is 6x
Austin Dillon $7,400 $7,000 23 37.0 44.4 Dillon has six top-20s in the last 9 points races this but hasn't had the best luck at NHMS. A top-15 is what he needs, that's within reach
Chris Buescher $6,100 $6,000 24 30.5 36.6 Buescher has gone backward six of the last nine races this year. The 17-car needs a P18 finish to get to 5x but his track history isn't great
Ty Dillon $5,700 $5,000 25 28.5 34.2 His 19.3 avg finish is nearly 5x. HIs PD adds upside. He's been P16 or better in 3 of the last 4 pts. races which hits 6x at his price too
James Davison $4,500 $3,000 26 22.5 27.0 Davison has only raced a handful of Cup races and is in typically backmarker equipment. He'll go backward & not finish on the lead lap
Garrett Smithley $4,700 $3,000 27 23.5 28.2 With a few guys starting behind him that will pass him and him being in it's unlikely he hits value. He'd need a P23 to hit value.
Joey Gase $4,900 $3,000 28 24.5 29.4 Not much reason to play Gase as he will likely drop backward
JJ Yeley $5,200 $3,500 29 26.0 31.2 Yeley needs to pick up five to six spots to hit 5x value but needs 10+ spots for 6x.
Ryan Preece $5,600 $5,500 30 28.0 33.6 Preece started P28 here last year and finished P21. He's been capable of finishing in the top-20 plenty this year. He's hard to ignore
Ricky Stenhouse Jr $6,800 $6,800 31 34.0 40.8 Stenhouse typically goes backward here but he also starts further up. Starting this far back take a shot on him in GPPs as a P20 hits
Quin Houff $4,600 $3,000 32 23.0 27.6 Not much of a reason to play Houff at this point even at this price point.
Corey Lajoie $6,200 $4,000 33 31.0 37.2 Lajoie has become an interesting PD play the last several races picking up several spots a race. He needs 10 spots of PD to hit 5x.
Brennan Poole $5,000 $3,500 34 25.0 30.0 Poole has shown flashes of good finishes but the crash rate is high. He'll need a P27 finish for 5x and P24 for 6x. He's still a GPP play
Christopher Bell $10,100 $9,000 35 50.5 60.6 The price is steep because of the PD upside. He's started P32 or worse 9 times in the 13 random draw races.He'll need a P14 or better
John H. Nemechek $7,000 $6,200 36 35.0 42.0 Nemechek is starting in the worst spot he could've. That's big PD upside and he'll need a P22 or better finish to hit value
Daniel Suarez $5,900 $4,500 37 29.5 35.4 Suarez has finished P28 or better in 8 of the last 9 pts races while starting P37 in every random draw race. He'll need a P25 finish to hit 5x
Timmy Hill $5,400 $3,000 38 27.0 32.4 He's only topped 20 points twice in the last 10 races, He's not likely to crack the 20 point barrier again this week either