Welcome to the All-Star race for NASCAR! This is traditionally a race where NASCAR tries some experimental stuff to test it during the exhibition race that has some of the best drivers in it every year. However, this year is getting even more experimental than usual. Remember, this is the race that gave us the current aero package after everyone loved the 750 hp package at the Charlotte Oval two years ago. Not only did they change locales for the race from Charlotte to Bristol this year; they’ve also introduced some changes to how the race will happen in terms of choose cone as well as the look of the cars with underglow lights in place and the numbers slid back on the door. This will be the first time that an All-Star race happens outside of Charlotte and they couldn’t have chosen a better, more exciting, track to move it to. The short track of Bristol, under the lights, is a great setting and one that held a Cup race (in the daylight) several weeks ago.
This race is 140 laps around the high-banked, half-mile, concrete oval that is The Last Great Colosseum and the engines will certainly be roaring to make it Thunder Valley once more. The All-Star race is divided into four stages of 55-35-35-15 with only the green flag laps counting in the final 15-lap stage. They are racing for a $1,000,000 check at the end of the night and only first place gets the prize. Given how much beating and banging there was the last time they raced at Bristol and the finish that occurred between Logano and Elliott, I’d expect quite a furious finish to this race which makes setting lineups fairly tricky. We also saw 17 cautions at Bristol last time; there won’t be that many this time since there are few cars and less laps but there could still be five or so as guys fight for positions.
The following tables show how the active drivers have done in the last five Bristol races and how they’ve done in prior All-Star race appearances. The column that is LL/140 and FL/140 are the laps led and fastest laps for that driver scaled down to a per 140 lap number since that’s the number of laps in this race rather than the 500 that is in a standard Bristol affair. The Running At Finish and Lead Lap Finish columns tell you how many times that driver was still on track at the finish and how many times they finished on the lead lap respectively.
Playbook
Kevin Harvick
DK: $10,400 FD: $13,500
Harvick has continued to be dominant and likely would have won at Kentucky if Truex hadn’t bumped him on the final restart. While short tracks aren’t the most dominant spots for him, he does have a solid history here with a win and a few top-fives under his belt in the last 10 races. He’s also won a couple of All-Star races as well. Starting P5 gives him a leg up to hang up front and this week value isn’t a huge thing as the race is short so any laps led he can give you with a great finish are a bonus.
Denny Hamlin
DK: $10,100 FD: $13,000
Hamlin won here the last time they raced under the lights and he’s been great since May, minus last week. He’s starting P15 which is a great spot to just hang out and let some guys ahead of him crash out as they fight for position much like his typical strategy at plate races. He will be a popular play with that starting spot and having won here multiple times as well as being a former All-Star race winner in his own right.
Chase Elliott
DK: $9,700 FD: $11,500
Elliott was in position to win here earlier this year before he got loose on the final restart and wrecked out he and Logano. He’s had a solid history at Bristol previously with running up front and being quick this time though he’ll have PD on his side by starting P13 and so you could see him employ a similar strategy to Hamlin and simply hang toward the back for a bit and let the early fray sort itself out first. The only way the retaliation that Logano has in his pocket plays a role is if they are racing for the $1,000,000 and race’s end.
Joey Logano
DK: $9,400 FD: $11,000
Logano has the best average finish in All-Star races in the field of any driver with at least five exhibition appearances to their credit with a mark of 6.6 in his nine races. He’s also done well at Bristol in the past as well including fighting for the win here several weeks ago. He’ll roll off in P12 which adds to the PD upside if he can nab another top-five finish in an All-Star race and avoid starting trouble with Chase Elliott who he’s starting next to. The last time the Cup drivers were here was in the midst of the last good stretch we saw from Logano as well.
Kyle Busch
DK: $9,100 FD: $12,500
The only reason he’s in the playbook is because I said I’d write up everyone in the field and that includes Kyle Busch. Yes I’m still salty about him getting handed the pole at a track that it’s tough to pass for the lead (as it was on Sunday) and him fading and only leading nine laps. But DFS NASCAR doesn’t have room for long grudges to be held even if Busch has been letting us down nearly all year. That’s especially true this week with the All-Star race being at Bristol, a track that may as well be known as “Buschtol” because of how much he and his brother have won here. In the last five races here, Busch has two wins and four top-fives as well as typically shining well under the lights. The concern here is that his setup misses again, like it has all season, and his record of either finishing top-10 or wrecking out at All-Star races holds. GPP play here.
Jimmie Johnson
DK: $8,800 FD: $7,000
Johnson has the most wins in the All-Star race in the field as he’s won four of them in his 18 previous tries, but does that surprise anyone? He was looking fast late at Kentucky until an ill-timed block got him spun and got him a worse day than he likely deserved. Johnson has flashed speed this year like it’s a flashback to five years ago but hasn’t put a complete race together yet...but how serendipitous would it be for him to get his first win in ages at the second-to-last track that he won at prior to going on this extended losing streak. He starts P14 but still remains a GPP play as he could just as easily wreck out as finish top-six.
Brad Keselowski
DK: $8,600 FD: $12,000
Who was the beneficiary of the Logano-Elliott crash at the earlier Bristol race? That would be the luckiest driver in the Cup series in Keselowski. He has been okay in both the All-Star race and at Bristol in his recent running with mostly Top-10s to show for his efforts and a few finishes better than that. He will roll off P9 in the grid and him finishing just outside the top-five is the likely outcome on Wednesday.
Martin Truex Jr
DK: $8,300 FD: $10,500
After waiting quite a while for DK to release the salaries for the All-Star race including a handful of drivers from the Open they believe will be in play to make the All-Star race, they gifted people the pole sitter at this price. Yes, it’s a shorter race than we’re used to at Bristol but MTJ has turned into a heck of a short track racer in recent years with a few wins at them and great runs as well with the exception of Bristol. There inlies why he’s priced this way on DK. He could lead a solid amount of laps but there’s nowhere to go but backward. At his price though a top-five finish and laps led could still clear 5x.
Ryan Blaney
DK: $8,000 FD: $10,000
Blaney was fast in the first race here until he spun out and Ty Dillon ripped the front end of his car off and ended his day early. Blaney is in his fourth All-Star race this year but hasn’t had the best of success in the event to this point with an average finish of P14. The 12-car has been fast much of the year though and if that speed shows up, he’s been good at Bristol in the last five, not to mention he’s starting P3 which could give him early laps led chances.
Clint Bowyer - Open
DK: $7,800 FD: N/A
Bowyer is starting in the Open, the 85-lap heat race to start the night and has to qualify into the All-Star race which is why he’s not on FD yet but is on DK. Bowyer will be starting P9 in the 22-car Open but Bristol is arguably statistically his best track and he finished P2 here earlier in the year. If he can win a stage in the Open he moves on to the main race and then becomes a nice value starting in the rear at this price and likely gets added to the FD pool later.
Kurt Busch
DK: $7,600 FD: $8,000
There are two drivers that give Bristol the nickname “Buschtol” and Kurt is the second one. He’s been nearly as good as his younger brother here and the two had a memorable 1-2 finish here last year. In the All-Star race he’s nabbed a win and eight top-fives in his 18 times racing the exhibition race but outside of the 10 top-10s, he’s only finished the race three other times in that span. He’ll start P7 in the main event Wednesday which is exactly where he finished in the earlier Bristol race and if he sticks near the top-five it gives him a decent floor.
Christopher Bell - Open
DK: $7,400 FD: N/A
Bell is in the Open to start as it’s not surprising a rookie didn’t qualify for the main event. He can still get in the main event though by winning a stage in the Open and he’ll start P3 in the first race and with the speed he’s shown of late and given the great run he had a Bristol earlier this year it’s a good bet he finds a way to make the main event and then comes from the rear to try and work his way up from back in the pack giving PD upside...but again he’s got to make the main event first.
Erik Jones
DK: $7,200 FD: $9,000
Jones got the furthest back starting spot he could have gotten in the 16-car automatic qualifier field. That’s okay though as it just ups his upside even more. He’s been snake bitten for sure as he just keeps having issues despite fast cars but that doesn’t include at the Food City 500 earlier this year as he finished P5 after starting P15. He will likely be a popular play in the mid-tier and with the most PD possible in the guaranteed field of drivers but chalk in NASCAR isn’t usually a bad thing.
Ryan Newman
DK: $6,900 FD: $5,000
Newman appears to still be settled in his typical price points on both sites in this race even with a P11 starting spot and seven top-10s in this event in his career. However, he hasn’t been quite as quick of late as he was earlier this season when he was a PD upside play for us and at Bristol last time he finished P15 after starting P17. If he can move up a few spots, he earns his value but there are some fast cars starting behind him making that a bit tougher of a task than it might seem.
Bubba Wallace - Open
DK: $6,800 FD: N/A
Wallace by all reports appears to be leading the fan vote which would be a sure-fire way to get into the All-Star race, so long as he makes it through the Open unscathed. He could also win a stage and by starting P6 that could happen early. He started P36 at Bristol earlier this year and finished P10 which could bode well for the Open and if he makes it through to the All-Star race by virtue of the fan vote, as expected, he did finished P5 in last year’s event after starting P17.
Aric Almirola - Open
DK: $6,600 FD: N/A
Almirola is on the front row once more...in the open. He isn’t an automatic qualifier for the main event since he didn’t win in the last year plus but starting on the front row and showing the absolute elite level speed he’s had recently should bode well for him winning an early stage and making the main event. If that happens you can guarantee he will be a popular play on DK at this price and starting at best P17 and having the top-end speed he’s had.
Matt Kenseth
DK: $6,500 FD: $6,000
Kenseth started to figure it out at Indy but then spun out twice at Kentucky and looked lost again. He basically hung out where he started at Bristol earlier this year. The only thing going for him is that he’s historically done well in this event but under completely different circumstances at a different track with a different aero package. Starting P6 is a tough starting spot for him as well making him a strictly GPP play on Wednesday.
Alex Bowman
DK: $6,300 FD: $8,500
Bowman is on the front row for the All-Star race, or should I say he’s starting P2 because of the choose cone being in place he may choose to be second in line instead of next to the pole-sitter. Bowman has shown good speed at times this season but sometimes the speed is his worst enemy as it’s gotten him into trouble like it did last time at Bristol when he couldn’t avoid a wreck in front of him and his day ended early. He’ll be popular, especially on DK as a laps led leader earlier at the bottom of the salary list but the PD is a real risk here. Still worth playing a decent amount of though because if he leads enough laps and still finishes top-10 it’s still a great value play.
Cole Custer
DK: $5,800 FD: $5,500
Custer is the newest qualifier for the All-star race having won last weekend at Kentucky with a few great moves in the last couple of laps. He’s really been turning things on of late with a series of good runs leading up to that as well including a top-10 at Indy. Custer will be starting P8 and based on recent speed he could stay there and he’ll certainly be popular based on recency bias but it might be tough to stay there given the experienced drivers behind him in the field.
Michael McDowell - Open
DK: $5,300 FD: N/A
McDowell is on the pole for the Open and if he can hold that and win the stage, he makes the main event. He’s had two top-10s in the last four races and moved up 11 spots here earlier this year so there’s clearly speed in the 34-car. The first stage, 35 laps, can be clicked off in a heartbeat here, and if he makes the main event he’s a cheap PD play and a guy that doesn’t need much to pay off, especially if guys crash out.
Justin Haley
DK: $5,200 FD: $4,000
Haley is here by virtue of his underdog win at Daytona last July and he hasn’t been in the Cup series much since then except for a plate race or two. He’s in the 77-car for Spire Motorsports who is using Chip Ganassi crew members to service the car Wednesday. He got a P4 draw but there is little hope of him holding that spot for long given the quality of drivers and cars that are behind him. If he can avoid the wrecks that are likely to happen, he can nab a good enough starting spot to not kill you with PD, or at least as badly as he could given the shortened field. It’s a tough sell on Haley this week.