The site of a former pig farm, Pocono Raceway is hosting the first Cup double-header weekend in quite some time this weekend. That’s right we get back-to-back Cup races at this track between Saturday and Sunday. This was scheduled when the 2020 Cup schedule was announced last year and it has stayed on the schedule and comes in quite handy given the delays in the season due to Corona.
 
This track is a track that is like no other on the Cup circuit due to its shape as well as its size and general flatness. It’s known as the Tricky Triangle for a reason...it’s a triangular shaped track. The three turns over the course of the 2.5-mile layout are all different and were modeled after three different tracks throughout the country. Turn 1 is banked at 14 degrees and that’s the most banking anywhere on the track and is modeled after since-defunct Trenton Speedway. Turn 2 is tilted at nine degrees and is known as the Tunnel Turn because the tunnel to enter the infield goes under the middle of the corner. It is based on Indianapolis Motor Speedway. The final corner is banked at six degrees and is the widest, most-sweeping, corner on the track based on the Milwaukee Mile. Pocono also features the two longest straightaways on the schedule as well in the front stretch and what’s known as the Long Pond straightaway between Turn 1 and Turn 2. The track is also very wide which will lead to pure craziness on restarts and needing to break the draft up on the straightaways to not give a boost to the cars behind the lead car.
 
With this being a double-header weekend the starting lineup will be determined by random draw for Saturday’s race based on the groups of 12 in the owners points like they have been the last several races. Sunday’s race lineup will be set based on the finish positions on Saturday with the top-20 finishers being inverted and the rest starting where they finished on Saturday. Pit stalls for Saturday are based off of Talladega’s finish and stalls for Sunday will be based on Saturday’s race finish order.
 
The races are two different lengths as Saturday’s event is 325 miles and Sunday’s is 350 miles which is a difference of 10 laps. Stages for the first race are 25 laps, 52 laps, and 53 laps while Sunday’s are 30, 55, and 55.
 
Programming Notes
With there being two races this weekend, there will only be this track breakdown and one podcast that will touch on both races. There will be two playbooks, two sets of example lineups, and a projection adjustment made after Saturday’s race for Sunday’s event. There will also be an adjustment to the rankings made for Sunday after Saturday’s race is final. This track breakdown will also look different than it normally has this season simply because the tiers aren’t available as of the writing of this breakdown and I didn’t want to swamp everyone with everything on Friday.
 
Strategy Notes
This is a track where starting up front has done wonders for DFS scoring on both sites as this is a major track position race, especially in the current aero package. Four of the last five races here have seen one driver lead more than 70 laps of the typical 160 that are in a normal 400-mile race here. Position differential is still something to focus on as two of the last three races here have seen nine drivers reach double-digit positive PD marks.
 
Performance by manufacturer over the last 10 races has been strong in one’s favor:
Courtesy FRCS
 
Winning Percentages from starting spots at Pocono:
PositionsWinning %Wins
From the Pole19.05%16
From the Front Row30.95%26
From the Top-558.33%49
From the Top-1071.43%60
From the Top-1586.90%73
From Outside the Top-208.33%7
Out of: 84
 
Drivers To Watch
Without having the tiers in place just yet we’ll just breakdown a few drivers to watch based on performance.
 
Kyle Busch
  • He has four top-10s in the last four races here and by far the best average finish at 3.5
  • Busch leads the field with 28.3 Dominator points per race in the last four races here.
  • He is one of three drivers with a driver rating over 100 in the last eight races at Pocono
Erik Jones
  • Jones has four top-five finishes here in his six Cup races here and five top-10s
  • In the last six races here, he’s tied for the most laps completed per race at 161
  • He should still be reasonably priced given his struggles to this point this year
Michael McDowell
  • McDowell has two top-20s in the last four races here with a positive 6.0 PD mark
  • In the last five races this season, he’s moved up an average of 12.2 spots a race
  • He should be a nice budget-friendly play with a great shot to move up through the field
Contrarian Play - Matt DiBenedetto
  • DiBenedetto has two top-20s in the last four Pocono race but has a negative PD mark
  • Paul Menard piloted the 21-car to four top-20s in the last five Pocono races with the fifth race being a P21 finish.
  • The Wood Brothers are known for having good Superspeedway cars and that should be on display again this weekend.
Fade - Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Ryan Preece
  • Both drivers have had rough goes of it at Pocono in recent races and tend to go backward
  • Stenhouse has only finished in the top-20 roughly half the times he’s taken the track here in the last four years and only half the times between Indy and Pocono
  • Preece has an average finish of P30 in two races in this package at this track.

Last Four Races at Pocono

Top-10 Drivers
   Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
DriverTeam#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Kyle BuschJGR4105.23.56.53100
Erik JonesJGR499.29.8-0.83000
Kevin HarvickSHR410.86.391.82100
Brad KeselowskiPenske49.312.213.3-42100
Martin Truex JrJGR41011.413.5-3.52010
William ByronHendrick421.5129.312.21201
Denny HamlinJGR46.87.413-6.21200
Chase ElliottHendrick411.812.114.8-31200
Daniel SuarezGaunt48.813.514.5-5.71100
Clint BowyerSHR4149.611.82.21021
  LLFLDominatorTop-15QPAvg.LC
Driver#/Race/RacePts./ RaceRate/RaceRating/Race
Kyle Busch450.031.528.392.0%37.0128.3161.8
Erik Jones45.34.53.683.4%31.3102.2161.5
Kevin Harvick445.328.325.488.9%30.0120.3161.5
Brad Keselowski43.88.04.974.6%35.394.4151.0
Martin Truex Jr47.89.56.775.0%30.598.4144.5
William Byron48.83.33.870.9%35.089.0161.8
Denny Hamlin49.59.57.190.9%32.8105.8158.3
Chase Elliott44.03.82.976.5%33.597.1141.8
Daniel Suarez49.55.04.958.2%24.382.9161.8
Clint Bowyer40.52.81.584.8%37.098.1161.8
Drivers 11-20
   Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
DriverTeam#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Alex BowmanHendrick412.813.716.3-3.51011
Ryan BlaneyPenske420.314.41010.30220
Aric AlmirolaSHR42114.813.57.50210
Joey LoganoPenske413.814.713.800210
Jimmie JohnsonHendrick422.512.114.87.70112
Ryan NewmanRoush413.816.415.8-20111
Kurt BuschGanassi41015.716.5-6.50111
Austin DillonRCR423.320.320.330021
Matt KensethGanassi218.523.815.530011
Chris BuescherRoush42424.42130012
  LLFLDominatorTop-15QPAvg.LC
Driver#/Race/RacePts./ RaceRate/RaceRating/Race
Alex Bowman40.00.50.369.9%35.078.6161.8
Ryan Blaney42.83.32.359.8%32.084.0161.8
Aric Almirola40.02.51.359.4%31.885.0161.8
Joey Logano40.00.00.059.0%28.086.2161.8
Jimmie Johnson41.31.51.173.0%34.582.8161.8
Ryan Newman40.00.30.138.4%26.870.1161.8
Kurt Busch42.84.02.748.2%26.576.8161.5
Austin Dillon40.00.00.038.6%20.564.4128.8
Matt Kenseth20.00.00.09.6%7.061.8162.0
Chris Buescher40.00.30.19.5%8.059.5151.5
Drivers 21-30
   Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
DriverTeam#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Ricky Stenhouse JrJTG4182122.3-4.30010
Michael McDowellFront Row426.524.520.560002
Matt DiBenedettoWood Bros.420.524.324.5-40002
Ty DillonGermain423.52825.8-2.30000
Cole CusterSHR12830.72620000
Bubba WallacePetty426.323.228.5-2.20000
Quin HouffStarCom23233.13020000
Ryan PreeceJTG224.525.530-5.50000
JJ YeleyRick Ware331.333.631.300000
Corey LajoieGo Fas33031.933.7-3.70000
  LLFLDominatorTop-15QPAvg.LC
Driver#/Race/RacePts./ RaceRate/RaceRating/Race
Ricky Stenhouse Jr40.00.30.116.2%12.559.5158
Michael McDowell40.01.00.56.1%6.551.9162
Matt DiBenedetto40.00.00.010.0%9.852.4150
Ty Dillon40.00.00.00.2%0.045.2160
Cole Custer10.00.00.00.0%0.041.0160
Bubba Wallace41.00.00.312.4%10.353.4146
Quin Houff20.00.00.00.0%0.029.6158
Ryan Preece20.00.00.02.5%3.049.0137
JJ Yeley30.00.00.00.0%0.033.9144
Corey Lajoie30.00.30.20.0%0.035.8108
Drivers 31-40
   Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
DriverTeam#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Timmy HillMBM1273836-90000
BJ McLeodMcLeod226.536.736.5-100000
Tyler ReddickRCR         
Brennan PoolePremium         
John H. NemechekFront Row         
Joey GasePWR         
Garrett SmithleyRick Ware         
James DavisonSpire         
Christopher BellLFR        
  LLFLDominatorTop-15QPAvg.LC
Driver#/Race/RacePts./ RaceRate/RaceRating/Race
Timmy Hill10.00.00.00.0%0.026.7142
BJ McLeod20.00.00.00.0%0.026.2118
Tyler Reddick   0.0    
Brennan Poole   0.0    
John H. Nemechek   0.0    
Joey Gase   0.0    
Garrett Smithley   0.0    
James Davison   0.0    
Christopher Bell   0.0   

Top-20 Drivers Over Last 8 Pocono Races

  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Brad Keselowski87.8118.5-0.76100
Kevin Harvick810.376.63.75200
Kyle Busch88.86.380.84300
Erik Jones6108.98.31.74100
Martin Truex Jr87.814.515-7.23111
Chase Elliott813.311.114.3-12400
Denny Hamlin87.99.411.1-3.22320
Kurt Busch810.913.311.8-0.92221
Ryan Blaney815.31511.53.81330
Daniel Suarez69.512.913.3-3.81210
  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Joey Logano810.814.618.4-7.61210
William Byron421.5129.312.21201
Clint Bowyer816.81414.32.51123
Alex Bowman412.813.716.3-3.51011
Chris Buescher823.62419.641013
Matt Kenseth611.214.712.3-1.10312
Aric Almirola721.72121.60.10211
Ryan Newman81415.514.4-0.40151
Jimmie Johnson818.916.222.6-3.70113
Austin Dillon820.918.720.60.30041
  LLFLDominatorLCAvg.
Driver#/Race/RacePts/ Race/RaceRating
Brad Keselowski85.08.35.4152.7599.2
Kevin Harvick824.622.317.3158.00117.2
Kyle Busch847.326.024.8156.88121.7
Erik Jones67.56.75.2161.00103.6
Martin Truex Jr810.411.48.3142.5092.4
Chase Elliott88.46.85.5147.6398.2
Denny Hamlin87.16.65.1156.3899.9
Kurt Busch85.43.53.1158.0087.5
Ryan Blaney82.62.92.1157.8885.9
Daniel Suarez66.53.73.5161.1783.9
  LLFLDominatorLCAvg.
Driver#/Race/RacePts/ Race/RaceRating
Joey Logano86.93.33.4155.1385
William Byron48.83.33.9161.7589
Clint Bowyer80.91.81.1158.1386.8
Alex Bowman40.00.50.3161.7578.6
Chris Buescher81.50.50.6152.7558.8
Matt Kenseth66.74.33.8157.0084
Aric Almirola70.01.40.7124.7166.1
Ryan Newman80.10.30.2158.1375.6
Jimmie Johnson80.61.40.9132.7577.5
Austin Dillon80.60.60.5136.1367.9

Top-20 Drivers At Similar Races

(Indianapolis and Pocono)
  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos. TopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W51015
Kyle Busch126.77.912.0-5.34599
Brad Keselowski127.51210.5-3.01899
Kevin Harvick127.875.82.0171111
Denny Hamlin129.69.49.9-0.314710
Martin Truex Jr128.816.819.0-10.21355
Kurt Busch1210.213.514.6-4.41247
Ryan Blaney1213.913.314.1-0.21139
Chris Buescher122323.118.34.71124
Erik Jones910.711.513.4-2.70566
Joey Logano129.712.814.4-4.70368
  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos. TopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W51015
Clint Bowyer1216.213.914.71.50346
Chase Elliott1214.314.416.0-1.70257
Matt Kenseth914.212.810.33.90247
William Byron622.812.310.012.80244
Daniel Suarez912.41412.9-0.50145
Ryan Newman1213.814.913.9-0.10139
Jimmie Johnson1215.615.821.8-6.20122
Alex Bowman613.21619.8-6.60111
Bubba Wallace723.424.125.9-2.50111
Austin Dillon1219.618.219.10.50016
  LedFast LapsDominatorLCAvg.
Driver#/Race/RacePts. / Race/RaceRating
Kyle Busch1253.426.026.4148.50119.1
Brad Keselowski127.36.24.9147.2597.4
Kevin Harvick1228.121.817.9160.08117.2
Denny Hamlin127.86.85.4158.92100.3
Martin Truex Jr127.610.57.2134.7587.4
Kurt Busch125.24.83.7158.1786.3
Ryan Blaney123.93.72.8158.0888.3
Chris Buescher121.00.40.5156.4262.1
Erik Jones96.15.24.1146.8997.2
Joey Logano126.02.72.9158.1789.7
  LedFast LapsDominatorLCAvg.
Driver#/Race/RacePts. / Race/RaceRating
Clint Bowyer123.72.52.2158.5088.6
Chase Elliott125.65.14.0142.8389.3
Matt Kenseth97.35.94.8159.8991.2
William Byron66.52.83.0161.1787.6
Daniel Suarez94.32.62.4161.5681.3
Ryan Newman120.10.30.2159.8376.9
Jimmie Johnson120.81.20.8137.9277.6
Alex Bowman60.00.70.4158.1774
Bubba Wallace70.60.70.5137.1455.9
Austin Dillon120.40.90.6145.0869.2
 
Momentum
The driver and team momentum tables have been made to match the last four and eight race tables with range of finish instead of the prior wins, top-fives, top-10s, and top-15 columns. They will also show those stats for the last five races of this season prior to the current week’s race to show you who’s been hot and who’s been cold.
Drivers
Top-10 Drivers
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos.    LLFLDominatorAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20/Race/RacePts./RaceRating
Ryan Blaney5710.310-3400045.823.823.4109.2
Denny Hamlin579.810.2-3.2300157.21521.8104.9
Brad Keselowski54.49.78.4-4220125.216.814.799.5
Kyle Busch5511.212.6-7.6210122.82216.795.3
Chase Elliott56.88.215-8.221002922.418.5101.2
Martin Truex Jr55.61212-6.4201140.22924.697.0
Erik Jones5151715.8-0.82001014.67.379.0
Aric Almirola58.415.717.4-920013.812.87.480.6
Jimmie Johnson514.6119.84.8121114.29.28.294.2
Kevin Harvick57.89.612.6-4.8112030.619.217.398.4
Drivers 11-20
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos.    LLFLDominatorAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20/Race/RacePts./RaceRating
Joey Logano549.515.8-11.8110161.221.826.295.9
Clint Bowyer510.812.615-4.2101211.610.48.185.1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr518.818.2180.81011142.374.1
Tyler Reddick519.815.418.41.410034.411.66.976.7
Kurt Busch51013.89.60.404010.25.42.886.0
William Byron517.816.513.8403002.28.24.782.4
Alex Bowman58.614.116-7.402112.46.23.782.6
Austin Dillon518.220.220-1.8021005.42.768.6
Christopher Bell53318.718.414.602010.81.40.970.4
Bubba Wallace524.616.613.810.801300.24.22.276.4
Drivers 21-30
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos.    LLFLDominatorAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20/Race/RacePts./RaceRating
Chris Buescher51818.217.40.601100.83.21.870.7
John H. Nemechek518.820.117.61.2011102.81.466.3
Matt DiBenedetto51916.420.6-1.6011014.22.477.1
Michael McDowell529.220.11712.2003104.62.370.4
Ryan Newman515.620.218.8-3.200300.23.61.966.9
Ryan Preece530.821.220.610.200200.63.21.863.0
Matt Kenseth517.222.123.8-6.60011052.559.6
Ty Dillon530.425.8264.40010021.052.4
Corey Lajoie526.625.324.42.2000211.20.954.9
Cole Custer528.622.525.43.2000103.21.657.3
Daniel Suarez53728.82710000101.40.744.6
Drivers 31-40
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos.    LLFLDominatorAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20/Race/RacePts./RaceRating
Brennan Poole530.630.730.20.400000.21.60.939.8
Quin Houff53234.230.61.4000000.80.433.6
Timmy Hill53834.532.85.2000101.80.934.5
Garrett Smithley43535.532.82.2000000.50.331.3
JJ Yeley53133.833.2-2.2000000.20.135.1
BJ McLeod435.534.833.52000001.50.831.7
Joey Gase530.836.435.8-50000010.528.3
Brendan Gaughan13928.52118    073.548.8
Gray Gaulding229.528.230-0.5    021.043.3
Josh Bilicki229.535.535.5-6    000.032.2
Reed Sorenson239.535.637.52    000.030.7
Bayley Currey1263738-12    000.029.5
Team
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos.    LapsFast
Team#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20LedLaps
Chip Ganassi Racing1013.618.016.7-3.104122104
Front Row Motorsports1024.020.117.36.70142074
Hendrick Motorsports2012.012.513.7-1.73822956920
Joe Gibbs Racing208.212.512.7-4.5911424041612
JTG Daugherty Racing1024.819.719.35.510311672
Richard Childress Racing1019.017.819.2-0.2121344170
Roush Fenway Racing1016.819.218.1-1.301401068
Stewart-Haas Racing2013.915.117.6-3.74134920912
Team Penske155.19.811.4-6.373021983936
Finish Ranges By Starting Spot Ranges
This table shows where the ranges of starting spots have finished regardless of driver in those spots over the last four Atlanta races. The left-hand column shows the starting spots in groups of five and the columns going across show the finish spots in groups of five up to outside the top-20.
StartFinish Ranges
Range1-56-1011-1516-2020+
1-5105311
6-1036146
11-1524446
16-2012349
21-25104212
26-30211214
31-35113312
36-40011011
Total2020202071

Weekly Rankings

Race Hist, Recent Form, Track Hist, Type Hist are all ranked on average finish position over the last four races at the track, five races this season, eight races at this track, and similar races respectively. The Avg. Rating and Top-15 % columns are ranked on those categories in the last four races at this track. The L8 PD column ranks the position differential over the last eight races from best (most positive) to worst (most negative).
Top-10 Drivers
DriverRace HistRecent FormTrack HistType HistAvg. RatingTop-15 %L8 PD
Kyle Busch17261112
Erik Jones413384510
Kevin Harvick2711234
Brad Keselowski81458818
Martin Truex Jr9614165729
William Byron39539101
Denny Hamlin75623222
Chase Elliott131111147620
Daniel Suarez1232107131525
Clint Bowyer6111113646
Drivers 11-20
DriverRace HistRecent FormTrack HistType HistAvg. RatingTop-15 %L8 PD
Alex Bowman17151518151123
Ryan Blaney5471012123
Aric Almirola9172120111315
Joey Logano11131611101430
Jimmie Johnson133222214924
Ryan Newman1623139171817
Kurt Busch182812161619
Austin Dillon19241917181714
Matt Kenseth152894192221
Chris Buescher2117181520232
Drivers 21-30
DriverRace HistRecent FormTrack HistType HistAvg. RatingTop-15 %L8 PD
Ricky Stenhouse Jr22201722201913
Michael McDowell2016201924247
Matt DiBenedetto23252629232127
Ty Dillon2431232126265
Cole Custer2530242727278
Bubba Wallace2692526222025
Quin Houff2735273130278
Ryan Preece27252725252528
JJ Yeley29383033292716
Corey Lajoie30292931282711
Drivers 31-40
DriverRace HistRecent FormTrack HistType HistAvg. RatingTop-15 %L8 PD
Timmy Hill31363130402731
BJ McLeod32393234402732
Tyler Reddick40214040402716
Brennan Poole40344040402716
John H. Nemechek40194040402716
Joey Gase40414024402716
Garrett Smithley40364028402716
James Davison40 4040402716
Christopher Bell40214040402716