NASCAR DFS: GEICO 500 Track Breakdown

‘Dega baby! If you like high speeds, high-banking, and side-by-side action this is the race for you. I did leave something out...the crashing! This race is marketed with “The Big One” being a major part of the race, what is that you might ask? It’s a wreck that can take out half the field at one time. That can play havoc with a DFS lineup for sure as your entire lineup or a big part of it can be taken out at one time. There are strategies to avoid that from happening as best as possible though.

Talladega is the longest oval track on the NASCAR schedule at 2.66 miles per lap and it’s also the most steeply-banked track as well with the banking in the turns at 34 degrees. Just how steep is 34 degrees? If you were standing at the wall in the corner and your buddy was down on the apron, there would be a 3-story house in height between the two of you. That size and steepness of banking leads to it also being the fastest track on the schedule with speeds last year reaching over 200 mph into Turn 1 which also makes this one of the most volatile tracks as well.

There are some changes to the package this week since Daytona to try and stop the wreck that we saw Newman involved in from happening. There is less horsepower and no aero ducts which could make passing for the lead slightly tougher according to a few drivers but given the style of racing it will still come down to the fastest line and who has the run, which should also be slightly easier to block compared to previous races.

Performance of the manufacturers has been dominated by one manufacturer here over the last 10 races:

Courtesy of FRCS

Winning percentages from starting spots at Talladega:

Strategy Notes

This race is unlike most others on the NASCAR schedule and can really only be compared to those that happen at Daytona as they are both known as plate races or Restrictor Plate tracks for the type of engine setup that is run at them and the style of racing that happens. We will be leaving a lot of money on the table for our builds this week, and by a lot I mean at least $8,000 on both sites. Place Differential is the absolute key stat this week going hand-in-hand with finish position. Wrecks will happen and when they do if your drivers avoid it, they’ll move up in the field without effort and thus add to their point total. There are 188 laps in the scheduled length of the race so laps led aren’t a big thing to focus on this week as this style of race doesn’t typically lead to a lot of laps led by anyone as they are pretty evenly split. They will make some difference for guys that start up front and finish there but overall they aren’t a huge stat this week.

Core Drivers By Tier

Tier 1 - Joey Logano

• Logano is one of the best plate racers in the field and has a few wins here in the last eight races

• He leads the field in driver rating and top-15 rate in the last four and eight races.

• Logano ranks first in Tier 1 in value on both sites in the last couple of races here

Tier 2 - Kurt Busch

• Busch has one of the best average finishes in the field in the last four races at 5.5

• He has five top-10 finishes in the last eight Talladega races while also putting up the second best driver rating.

• He’s also starting P7 on Sunday which has been one of the top scoring spots in the last five races here.

Tier 3 - Aric Almirola

• Almirola has finished in the top-10 seven times in the last eight races at this track including a win.

• He ranks in the top-10 in nearly every category in the weekly rankings this week except for momentum.

• He’s averaged over 6.5x value on DK over the last five races and nearly 5x on FD at his current salary.

Contrarian Play - Bubba Wallace

• Wallace is a solid plate racer with three top-15 finishes in his five Cup races here

• He’s racing in his home state which could give him a boost as well

• He’s starting in a starting spot that typically doesn’t do well but he’s got the experience and history to overcome that.

Fade - Mid-pack Starting Spots

• We’re not truly fading anyone this week because of the nature of this race

• We are going light on drivers starting in spots 13-27 in general though

• Drivers starting in those spots tend to not score well in these types of races.

Last Four GEICO 500s

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4

Top-20 Drivers Over Last 8 Talladega Races

Top-20 Drivers At Similar Races

(Daytona and Talladega)

Momentum

The driver and team momentum tables have been made to match the last four and eight race tables with range of finish instead of the prior wins, top-fives, top-10s, and top-15 columns. They will also show those stats for the last five races of this season prior to the current week’s race to show you who’s been hot and who’s been cold.

Drivers

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4

Team

Finish Ranges By Starting Spot Ranges

This table shows where the ranges of starting spots have finished regardless of driver in those spots over the last four Atlanta races. The left-hand column shows the starting spots in groups of five and the columns going across show the finish spots in groups of five up to outside the top-20.

Weekly Rankings

The Race Hist column is based on average finish in the last four races, Recent Form is ranked on average finish of the momentum tables, Track Hist is ranked on of average finish over the last eight races at that track, Type Hist is ranked on the average finish of the similar races table. The DFS columns are ranked on the values provided by those drivers over the last two and five races at this event based on the salaries on each site this week. DK is ranked across all tiers while FD is ranked from best to worst values in each tier to even out the wide range of salaries and narrow point differences.

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4

DFS Value Averages

This replaces the DFS Scoring Averages table that had been here. Instead, we have the DFS Value figures instead. We have taken their points scored over the last two and five races on each site and averaged those out and then divided that average by their salary divided by 1,000. For example, Chase Elliott’s FD value over the last two races is 4.85 meaning he’s averaged 64.5 FD points the last two races (4.85 x 13.3 (his salary divided by 1,000)=64.5. The Seas. Avg column shows you the value they’ve provided this season based on their average points per race divided by the salary for this week’s race so staying with Elliott, he’s averaging 59.8 points per race which at $13,300 gives him a 4.50x value on average. Keep in mind that it’s not all about value when building a lineup on FD as salary dictates how many points that value equates to.

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4