BRISTOL BABY!! The Bullring is back this Sunday for the first Cup short track race of the year and it couldn’t come at a better time. Bristol is one of the most exciting tracks of the year, especially this year with the low-downforce package on the cars and traction compound widening out the racing groove and cars slipping and sliding all over the concrete surface.

This is perhaps the track with the most nicknames of any track as it’s known as Thunder Valley, The Last Great Colosseum, The World’s Fastest Half Mile, and The Bullring and that’s fitting of a track of its history as one of the original tracks of NASCAR. The current form of the track is a high-banked, concrete, .533-mile layout that produces speed that may make you think you’re watching a speedway race instead of a short track event. The narrow racing surface and high speeds mean that incidents are common as there aren’t the run-off areas that there are at other tracks and lap traffic plays a key role in passing throughout the race as the laps get clicked off in sub-15-second lap times.

There are 500 laps on tap for Sunday over three stages so focusing on dominator points is a good way to rack up the points in both cash and GPP formats while position differential is still in play, though not from guys that are all the way in the back typically, depending on who it is.

This week, the track breakdown tables will look a bit different as I continue to try and give FANation the best info possible to keep winning. Instead of the wins, top-five, top-10, top-20, columns you’ve seen previously on the last four and last eight race tables, they’ve been replaced with columns saying 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20 which indicate finishes in those ranges over those spans in an effort to clarify more quickly how consistent a driver is. There have also been columns added that are titled Dominator Pts./ Race which are a tally of how many combined points from Laps Led and Fastest Laps in the last x number of races that driver has produced (keep in mind these are calculated for DK as they really matter there). The Finish Spot by Starting Spot Ranges table has been changed to show finishing ranges for those starting spot ranges over the last four races. Coming up for the race at Atlanta (and going forward) there will be an additional section added titled Recent Values where we will show the values (i.e. 4x, 5x, 6x) during a recent stretch of races based on the current race’s salary. I’m always open for suggestions, just private message me in chat or DM me on Twitter (@theselzman) with your thoughts.

Now on to the reason you’re here!

Core Plays By Tier

Joey Logano - Tier 1

  • Logano hasn’t finish worse than 10th in the last four spring Bristol races

  • He has the best average finish in the field and the most dominator points as well

  • He’s starting P3 on Sunday and puts him in prime position to hold a high spot all race long

Kurt Busch - Tier 2

  • If Kyle Busch isn’t winning, Kurt is with a couple of wins in the last several races here

  • He’s had the fifth fastest green flag speed on the season so far 

  • There is a bit of risk here that he doesn’t finish highly, but the roll he’s on right now mitigates that

Matt DiBenedetto - Tier 3

  • Matty D nearly won this race last fall and finished second to Denny Hamlin but he also finished P12 in the spring race and moved up well

  • He has a great history at short tracks with an average finish of 14.5 and a healthy positive 12.5 PD mark as well in the last four spring Bristol races

  • Wood Brothers always brings fast cars at Bristol

Contrarian Play - Tyler Reddick

  • Reddick is a rookie and put on a show well at Charlotte but is starting further back in the pack at Bristol

  • He drives the high line and slides the car through the corners well, which is what is needed here in this package

  • Reddick has a stellar record here in the Xfinity series but might go overlooked with his starting spot

Fade - William Byron

  • Byron has a history of dropping back here by nearly 10 spots a race in the four races he’s run in the Cup series here

  • This season, Byron has finished higher than where he’s started just twice in eight races

  • In the two Spring races at Bristol, Willy B has just 17.8 DK points on average.

Last 4 Food City 500s

Tier 1

  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Kyle Busch47.513.518.8-11.32000
Kevin Harvick417.311.67.59.81210
Denny Hamlin412.511.612.30.21111
Chase Elliott49.516.512.8-3.31110
Joey Logano46.37.86.8-0.52200
Jimmie Johnson411109.31.72100
Martin Truex Jr41514.717.3-2.30111
Brad Keselowski47.813.123.3-15.50002
  LLFLDominatorTop-15QPAvg.LC
Driver#/Race/RacePts./ RaceRate/RaceRating/Race
Kyle Busch447.033.528.568.2539.096.5410.3
Kevin Harvick46.850.026.772.5038.598.3500.0
Denny Hamlin45.37.34.975.7550.090.0499.8
Chase Elliott49.514.09.456.9541.581.5493.3
Joey Logano455.831.029.487.4552.0113.8500.0
Jimmie Johnson420.323.016.680.6554.8102.4499.8
Martin Truex Jr40.00.00.054.4834.390.3489.3
Brad Keselowski426.822.017.763.6043.384.0481.8

Tier 2

  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Clint Bowyer416.814.66.310.51300
Alex Bowman2111614-31000
Ryan Blaney4811.420.8-12.81010
Kurt Busch417.517.1134.52000
Matt Kenseth2121620-81000
William Byron26.515.817-10.50002
  LLFLDominatorTop-15QPAvg.LC
Driver#/Race/RacePts./ RaceRate/RaceRating/Race
Clint Bowyer46.011.37.155.5547.585.8500.0
Alex Bowman20.09.04.554.2537.583.8498.5
Ryan Blaney464.518.025.158.1531.892.4392.3
Kurt Busch410.310.07.650.1029.583.9497.5
Matt Kenseth271.017.026.348.3037.088.8480.0
William Byron20.02.51.340.9026.567.2499.0

Tier 3

  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Tyler Reddick         
Bubba Wallace22416.71860002
Ricky Stenhouse Jr418.519.715.531101
Christopher Bell         
Matt DiBenedetto426.82014.512.30111
Erik Jones310.315.522.3-120001
Ryan Newman417.812.110.57.30310
Aric Almirola416.32524.8-8.50100
Daniel Suarez318.314.712.360111
Austin Dillon41816.51710030
Ty Dillon428.52020.87.70020
Ryan Preece13028.52550000
Chris Buescher423.823.229.5-5.70000
  LLFLDominatorTop-15QPAvg.LC
Driver#/Race/RacePts./ RaceRate/RaceRating/Race
Tyler Reddick   0.0    
Bubba Wallace23.01.01.332.3017.063.4499
Ricky Stenhouse Jr40.013.06.547.4039.871.7474
Christopher Bell   0.0    
Matt DiBenedetto40.00.00.023.2025.363.7499
Erik Jones33.316.39.047.6329.777.7497
Ryan Newman40.04.02.079.1552.885.3500
Aric Almirola40.01.30.624.8314.850.3370
Daniel Suarez31.76.03.453.1342.380.4499
Austin Dillon40.02.31.148.1040.369.9499
Ty Dillon41.50.80.837.1024.560.7494
Ryan Preece10.01.00.50.000.043.2496
Chris Buescher40.00.00.022.2314.550.8292

Tier 4

  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Corey Lajoie333.727.927.760000
Cole Custer         
John H. Nemechek         
Brennan Poole         
JJ Yeley         
BJ McLeod         
Timmy Hill236.535.3360.50000
Gray Gaulding332.332.8320.30000
Michael McDowell421.527.530.3-8.80000
Garrett Smithley         
Quin Houff13632.93240000
Joey Gase         
Bayley Currey13431.43130000
  LLFLDominatorTop-15QPAvg.LC
Driver#/Race/RacePts./ RaceRate/RaceRating/Race
Corey Lajoie30.00.00.00.000.043.8433
Cole Custer   0.0    
John H. Nemechek   0.0    
Brennan Poole   0.0    
JJ Yeley   0.0    
BJ McLeod   0.0    
Timmy Hill20.00.00.00.000.026.3237
Gray Gaulding30.00.00.00.000.037.9359
Michael McDowell40.00.30.10.500.340.5373
Garrett Smithley   0.0    
Quin Houff10.02.01.00.000.029.9476
Joey Gase   0.0    
Bayley Currey10.00.00.00.000.035.5488

Top-20 Drivers at Last 8 Bristol Races

  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Denny Hamlin88.410.58.8-0.44121
Kurt Busch815.314.213.12.24100
Kyle Busch810.612.517.4-6.84001
Joey Logano89.110.28.80.33311
Chase Elliott8711.311.5-4.53121
Kevin Harvick817121162410
Jimmie Johnson815.512.310.45.12311
Ricky Stenhouse Jr817.518.916.90.62111
Erik Jones69.210.816-6.82001
Matt Kenseth48.51420.3-11.82000
  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Clint Bowyer817.914.6116.91501
Ryan Blaney88.510.518.1-9.61310
Alex Bowman413.515.412.80.71110
Matt DiBenedetto824.420.415.68.81112
Austin Dillon817.319.519.8-2.51040
Brad Keselowski810.115.221.8-11.71003
Chris Buescher822.421.123.3-0.91002
Ryan Newman817.113.812.44.70430
Daniel Suarez617.714.8134.70222
Martin Truex Jr811.613.319.5-7.90121
  LLFLDominatorLCAvg.
Driver#/Race/RacePts/ Race/RaceRating
Denny Hamlin814.915.111.3499.8897.1
Kurt Busch89.310.67.6482.6388.3
Kyle Busch878.845.042.2436.88103.1
Joey Logano844.520.921.6499.63101.7
Chase Elliott824.920.416.4496.5095.9
Kevin Harvick823.945.428.7468.00100.4
Jimmie Johnson810.116.911.0499.3891.8
Ricky Stenhouse Jr80.015.07.5472.6374.6
Erik Jones648.825.725.1497.5094.1
Matt Kenseth438.317.318.2458.2589.7
  LLFLDominatorLCAvg.
Driver#/Race/RacePts/ Race/RaceRating
Clint Bowyer818.013.111.1496.1383.6
Ryan Blaney847.417.920.8438.1393.8
Alex Bowman40.08.34.2498.5082.8
Matt DiBenedetto811.65.15.5498.3866.9
Austin Dillon80.02.11.1451.7567.1
Brad Keselowski824.818.315.4484.6379.2
Chris Buescher80.04.92.5394.8860.6
Ryan Newman81.43.32.0498.2581.6
Daniel Suarez60.87.54.0499.3379.1
Martin Truex Jr821.030.920.7485.1391.8

Top-20 Drivers At Similar Races (Bristol and Dover)

  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos. TopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W51015
Kyle Busch168.710.815.4-6.74689
Martin Truex Jr167.9912.2-4.326810
Kevin Harvick1611.510.711.30.2251012
Jimmie Johnson1614.912.211.63.324912
Chase Elliott167.911.310.1-2.2191012
Kurt Busch1612.81413.4-0.617910
Denny Hamlin168.110.810.3-2.2161013
Matt Kenseth99.312.414.6-5.31446
Joey Logano1611.612.212.2-0.604711
Erik Jones1210.211.313.8-3.60345
  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos. TopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W51015
Alex Bowman812.313.513.4-1.10344
Clint Bowyer16181513.64.402911
Brad Keselowski169.812.717.2-7.40248
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1616.219.418.2-2.00247
Daniel Suarez1214.113.710.83.30159
Ryan Newman1616.816.214.91.90149
Ryan Blaney1610.913.319.7-8.80148
Austin Dillon1617.518.918.6-1.10137
Matt DiBenedetto162623.720.95.10134
Chris Buescher1622.922.924.0-1.10111
  LedFast LapsDominatorLCAvg.
Driver#/Race/RacePts. / Race/RaceRating
Kyle Busch1650.235.830.5408.06101.6
Martin Truex Jr1643.940.531.2443.19106.5
Kevin Harvick1649.848.936.9431.63105.8
Jimmie Johnson1612.022.314.2448.3192.6
Chase Elliott1630.819.417.4424.3897
Kurt Busch164.89.45.9422.0086.4
Denny Hamlin1622.013.612.3448.6994.8
Matt Kenseth922.313.912.5426.7894
Joey Logano1623.815.113.5448.0092.6
Erik Jones1224.415.814.0449.2590.8
  LedFast LapsDominatorLCAvg.
Driver#/Race/RacePts. / Race/RaceRating
Alex Bowman85.317.19.9448.3888.6
Clint Bowyer1611.611.78.8446.3183.2
Brad Keselowski1629.216.715.7421.5687.7
Ricky Stenhouse Jr162.19.65.3414.2570.9
Daniel Suarez122.37.54.3450.3383.3
Ryan Newman160.83.92.2447.3175.9
Ryan Blaney1623.710.811.3403.5087.7
Austin Dillon160.04.42.2422.3869
Matt DiBenedetto165.85.44.2429.5658.1
Chris Buescher160.02.51.3385.6956.9

Momentum

The seven races run since the Daytona 500 this season comprise the momentum stats.

Driver

Tier 1

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopLLFLDominatorAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W51015/Race/RacePts./RaceRating
Kyle Busch712.313.811.70.6044405.72.989.5
Kevin Harvick710.66.85.65136755.929.628.8113.9
Denny Hamlin714.71711.63.113441.794.982.0
Chase Elliott710.67.811.9-1.3145536.728.423.4112.2
Joey Logano77.47.88.3-0.9224628.78.711.5103.9
Jimmie Johnson718.313.511.96.402463.66.94.491.3
Martin Truex Jr7159.9141003516.917.312.994.9
Brad Keselowski710.710.26.93.813572815.614.8101.1

Tier 2

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopLLFLDominatorAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W51015/Race/RacePts./RaceRating
Clint Bowyer714.916.119.3-4.4011211.67.46.680.1
Alex Bowman78.37.314.1-5.8122452.331.428.8109.2
Ryan Blaney71212.615.9-3.9022310.712.38.894.5
Kurt Busch711.312.19.3203557.77.45.690.5
Matt Kenseth413.320.922.5-9.20001031.570.2
William Byron71613.818.1-2.100032.18.44.787.9

Tier 3

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopLLFLDominatorAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W51015/Race/RacePts./RaceRating
Tyler Reddick719.114.4154.1002508.14.181.1
Bubba Wallace723.923.723.60.300110.40.60.457.9
Ricky Stenhouse Jr722.622.819.92.702225.322.363.2
Christopher Bell719.721.223-3.3000201.91.061.1
Matt DiBenedetto712.413.3120.401252.30.91.083.4
Erik Jones716.114.2160.101243.95.13.582.6
Ryan Newman41816.818.5-0.500011.32.51.674.1
Aric Almirola712.313.313.1-0.8003401.10.684.7
Daniel Suarez7322826.95.100000.10.40.243.5
Austin Dillon716.416.416.9-0.501230.12.61.374.4
Ty Dillon721.323.120.3100011.10.60.657.0
Ryan Preece719.623.627.3-7.700000.100.056.0
Chris Buescher720.420.819.31.100020.11.70.962.6

Tier 4

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopLLFLDominatorAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W51015/Race/RacePts./RaceRating
Corey Lajoie725.925.824.31.6000000.90.550.3
Cole Custer717.721.118.6-0.9001200.40.262.7
John H. Nemechek72222.621.10.900120.12.61.359.3
Brennan Poole73230.732.1-0.100000.10.60.339.1
JJ Yeley730.630.730.40.200000.10.30.238.8
BJ McLeod436.335.835.80.5000000.30.230.3
Timmy Hill735.735.935.30.4000002.11.129.2
Gray Gaulding33031.131.3-1.30000000.038.4
Michael McDowell720.324.422.6-2.300000.10.30.253.1
Garrett Smithley734.13635.6-1.5000001.70.929.2
Quin Houff732.63433-0.40000021.033.2
Joey Gase734.134.332.61.5000000.40.232.5
Bayley Currey           0.0

Team

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopLapsFast
Team#StartPos.FinishDiff.W51015LedLaps
Chip Ganassi Racing1112.316.515.9-3.6035685114
Front Row Motorsports1421.223.521.9-0.70012341
Hendrick Motorsports2813.310.614.0-0.728111826522103
Joe Gibbs Racing2814.513.713.31.21813176301039
JTG Daugherty Racing1421.123.223.6-2.502227628
Richard Childress Racing1417.815.416.01.801481150
Roush Fenway Racing1119.218.818.90.300031546
Stewart-Haas Racing2813.914.314.2-0.314111518901078
Team Penske2110.010.210.4-0.33711161415769

Finishes By Starting Spot Ranges

StartFinish Ranges
Range1-56-1011-1516-2020+
1-564127
6-1065315
11-1512755
16-2045146
21-2510829
26-30220313
31-35000317
36-40020013
Total2020202075

Weekly Rankings

Tier 1

DriverDK$FD $Race HistRecent FormDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Track HistType Hist
Kyle Busch$12,500$14,000176118201414
Kevin Harvick$12,200$12,20031331644
Denny Hamlin$11,600$12,0006588191512
Chase Elliott$11,300$13,000872019131261
Joey Logano$10,700$11,700232251116
Jimmie Johnson$10,200$10,00047642235
Martin Truex Jr$9,400$12,500151117181117166
Brad Keselowski$9,100$12,300222111527282116

Tier 2

DriverDK$FD $Race HistRecent FormDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Track HistType Hist
Clint Bowyer$9,800$9,0001205631410
Alex Bowman$8,800$11,40010121513141088
Ryan Blaney$8,600$10,300191442415241519
Kurt Busch$8,300$10,6009410965108
Matt Kenseth$8,100$8,00018264040471912
William Byron$7,700$9,3001317221624181615

Tier 3

DriverDK$FD $Race HistRecent FormDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Track HistType Hist
Tyler Reddick$7,900$7,3004013404033404040
Bubba Wallace$7,500$5,0001629141216132223
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$7,400$6,20012221820991317
Christopher Bell$7,300$6,0004028404033404040
Matt DiBenedetto$7,100$8,30011913111281120
Erik Jones$7,000$9,6002115272323211211
Ryan Newman$6,800$7,7005187573713
Aric Almirola$6,700$8,0002310252622272522
Daniel Suarez$6,500$4,0006319710493
Austin Dillon$6,300$7,0001316121018141818
Ty Dillon$6,100$5,5001923161417162324
Ryan Preece$6,000$5,0002432191720192021
Chris Buescher$5,800$6,8002620262728312425

Tier 4

DriverDK$FD $Race HistRecent FormDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Track HistType Hist
Corey Lajoie$5,700$3,0002530212521232627
Cole Custer$5,600$6,6004019404033404040
John H. Nemechek$5,500$6,4004024404033404040
Brennan Poole$5,400$2,5004035404033404040
JJ Yeley$5,300$3,0004033404030262828
BJ McLeod$5,200$2,0004042404033403133
Timmy Hill$5,100$2,0003140282931323235
Gray Gaulding$5,000$2,0002934292829303330
Michael McDowell$4,900$4,5002727303032292726
Garrett Smithley$4,800$2,0004041404033404032
Quin Houff$4,700$2,5002938232225252931
Joey Gase$4,600$2,0004037404033403434
Bayley Currey$4,500 28 242126222929