So, we’re all trying to see who our keepers or carryovers are and then, bam here come the holidays and we all get hooked on getting nice, new, shiny toys. Suddenly, the attention is switched to figuring out who the hot young rookies will be and even who the sleeper rookies will be. If you want to see who the top rookie options are this year, you can check out the Rookie Rankings where we have the top-50 ranked, and a write up for the top-20. However, there are some words of caution before you count on those rookies, even with some of them being spectacular in the last few years. You’ll see how the cover guy figures into this later.
Hitters
The 2019 class of rookies was one of the biggest ones yet at 90 hitters with at least 100 plate appearances registered. Clearly there were the hotly discussed rookies like Pete Alonso and Yordan Alvarez , Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Fernando Tatis Jr. , Eloy Jiménez , and even Victor Robles . A few others got some traction like Oscar Mercado , Brandon Lowe , Keston Hiura , and Alex Verdugo . If you’re counting, I just named 10 of the 90 rookies that had 100 PA and that might sound like a lot, but that means there are 80 more that didn’t get mentioned above. If you’re in a 12-team league, those 10 guys aren’t enough to give everyone in the league one of those rookies on their roster in the first place.
So we know the rookie class was big but how did it stack up in terms of weight averages against the past five classes? Let’s analyze the data:
Sure, there were the huge performers like Alonso and Alvarez but as you can see, even with those performances, the class is just average when looking into the counting stats. In terms of games played, the average amount played was 78, so even though they were up for an average of roughly half the season, the stats were still just average for the most part. The class ranked fifth out of six in at-bats, ranked fifth in runs, tied for third in home runs, fifth in RBI, and tied for fourth in steals. So even amongst other rookie classes, that each had their own standout performers in big ways, this was not even one of the better ones. For slash lines, which are weighted to be a pure average of the class, they came in fourth in average, on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS.
To illustrate just how hit-and-miss this class was, as the averages didn’t show that clearly enough, looking at the highest totals in each category should show that. The counting stats and the averages all fit in the top-three of the six-year trends and in a few cases are the best ones in that span, namely home runs and RBI powered by Pete Alonso ’s historic rookie campaign. The slash line is close to being the second-best one of all of them.
The table above shows the difference between the weighted averages of qualified hitters and rookies stat lines. To clarify what a qualified hitter is, a hitter that averages 3.1 PA per game, or at least 502 PA for the season, counts as a qualified hitter. For 2019, there were 135 hitters that met that criteria including the top few rookies. In case you hadn't seen enough yet, rookies are putting up stat lines that are by far inferior to everyday or nearly everyday players in all categories. The counting stats are between 2.5-3 times lower in each category for rookies than qualified hitters based on 2019 stats, and that's been a trend that's held for the last three years as well. The slash lines are between 20-80 points lower for rookies depending on the ratio you look at. This should be expected as very few rookies play every day, even if they are the elite caliber ones, and if they're not playing every day, they can't generate the counting stats in the same way, nor can they get into a rhythm at the plate to improve on their slash lines.
Pitchers
On the other side of the ball, the pitchers are often less heralded than the hitters but that doesn’t mean that fantasy owners don’t target their fair share of rookies in this section in drafts too. Guys like Chris Paddack , Dakota Hudson , Mike Soroka , Jesús Luzardo , and Yusei Kikuchi were some of the higher drafted rookies in the class that wound up featuring 80 pitchers that threw at least 40 innings in the majors. The problem with pitchers though is similar to what we talked about in the hitter's section, in that they are hard to count on in their rookie campaigns. For example, just focus on Paddack and Luzardo. Paddack wound up being shut down early, and was even sent down to the minor at one point, and Luzardo on the other hand, got injured in spring training and was shut down till almost the last month of the season and only got a few starts in total for the A’s.
While compared to the last five seasons prior to 2019, the number of games pitched on average is second in that span at 35, but starts are drastically lower than the previous low at just nine. The innings pitched were similar to last year but still a far cry from what they had been the four years prior. Wins, Losses, ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, and BB/9 were all at or near the worst marks of the last several years while walks and K/9 were tied for the best marks. Overall though, it was a very lackluster showing from a generally deeper class than past years in terms of the number of players throwing 40 or more innings.
The same phenomenon happened with the pitchers as did with the hitters as well when looking at the best marks across the categories. The category leaders are at or near the top of each of the categories over the last six seasons including games, starts, innings pitched, wins, WHIP, K/9, and BB/9. So much like a hitter at the dish this year, they were very hit-and-miss on the mound and it could be due to the change in the balls this year, and yes there was a change in the level of the seams on the ball, but whatever it was, this year’s crop of pitchers was highly inconsistent when toeing the rubber.
Sixty-One pitchers counted as qualified pitchers in 2019, meaning they pitched at least one inning per team game played, and if we look at comparing them to rookies, we’ll get an interesting look at why counting on rookie arms is an interesting proposition. While rookies did outproduce the qualifying pitchers in games pitched, the rookies paled in comparison in each of the other categories. With there being over 60 pitchers reaching at least 162 innings, that means that there can be at least five of those pitchers per team in a 12-team league meaning a rookie starter doesn’t need to be anything more than an SP6 option for your team.
Final Arguments
So, if the tables and data haven’t convinced you to this point, let’s wrap this up in this way. Every year, there are hyped rookies and those are slated to be starting right from the jump that other owners go for and might intrigue you as well in your drafts. However, let’s look at it this way, over the last few years, there have been between five-to-eleven percent of hitters in the class that have made real differences for fantasy teams that particular year and there are even fewer pitchers to do the same. So let’s say you make the jump for one of the big-ticket rookies that are getting hyped but it turns out they have a rougher year than anticipated or like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. last year, gets injured before the start of the year and misses several weeks despite you counting on them as a starting option in your lineup. Now you have a backup option starting because you didn’t take a veteran, proven bat in that spot instead. That’s the point of this article, not getting to a spot where you’re depending on rookies. Taking them to be starters on your rosters is a risk, still, despite the upper echelon of the classes performing better than ever seemingly every year. You may hit the starter you’re looking for, but odds are that you won’t and even if you do, you could have likely assumed less risk, taking a veteran hitter in the same spot or even a few rounds after that rookie is going. For example, this year, currently based on NFBC ADP, Luis Robert is going as the 105th player off the board, meanwhile, players like Marcell Ozuna , Josh Donaldson , Andrew Benintendi , Yuli Gurriel , and Nicholas Castellanos are all going just before or several picks later. Justin Turner and Lorenzo Cain and Adam Eaton are all going between 60 and 100 picks after Robert as well just to name a few quality veteran bats that should put up similar stat lines to Robert in 2020.
While it’s enticing to go after that shiny new toy in drafts, there is always a risk with getting new things. Just think about the bugs that can be in the newest phones, computers, or tablets; or sometimes toys don’t function as intended. That’s the same thing that can happen with rookies making it to the majors for the first time and getting their first taste of pro ball at its highest form. Those in keeper and dynasty formats can mitigate the risk because they get multiple years with the players so using their rookie year as a tune up reduces the effect on their roster, however in re-draft leagues, the rookie price can often be a hard one to swallow at draft time.