For the second time this season, the Cup drivers and teams venture to Alabama and the famed Talladega Superspeedway to try and conquer the biggest, fastest, most-intimidating track on the schedule. Anything can happen here. That’s what the legacy of the track is built on as the speeds and type of racing lead to unpredictability in an odd way. In some ways, it’s the most predictable race of the year in that a “big one” will happen at least once during the race and it will be a partial dart throw to pick a winner. However, in another way, it’s unpredictable in that we don’t know who will be involved in the wrecks and whether or not riding around in the back or the front will keep you completely safe.

The 2.66-mile speedway banked at 33 degrees in the turns with 16.5 degrees of tilt in the front stretch leads to some of the highest consistent speeds of any track in the world. Typically, this has been a restrictor plate race much like Daytona but with the new rules package for this year, there was no need for the plate to be put on the engine, though the pack racing still persists. In the first race here, they were still hitting speeds over 200 mph into Turn 1 and the pack acted just like it had in the past when restrictor plates were used.

Starting Positions of Winners

Starting Pos.Races WonStarting Pos.Races Won
114141
220152
37163
49171
55182
64191
73201
81222
95241
103271
114343
122361
134  

This track may have the most amount of winners from different spots in the starting grid with 25 different spots providing the eventual winner of the race. Out of the past 100 races at the track, 55 winners have come from the top-five starting spots and the entire top-20 spots have at least one winner.

Track Data

Drivers To Watch This Week:

I am unfortunately dealing with a cold/bronchitis this week and have not much of a voice to do the full Hot Pass video so instead, I will write up a few drivers to watch heading to Talladega.

Joey Logano ($9,400 DK, $14,500 FD) – He and his teammate Brad Keselowski ($9,600 DK, $12,500 FD) are two of the best plate racers in the field. Logano has two wins in the last five Fall Talladega races with four top-fives and an average finish of 4.4 in that span with a positive 13.4 PD mark. In the last 10 ‘Dega races he’s posted three wins and six top-fives and an 11.7 average finish. Keselowski has similar stats to those of Logano but he’s got worse average finishes in those same spans with the same amount of wins in each case.

Aric Almirola ($7,600 DK, $9,000 FD) – Almirola won this race last year after Stewart-Haas ran 1-4 all race long. It’s not just the win that makes him noteworthy as he has six top-10s in the last 10 Talladega races with an average finish of 13.1 and a positive 8.2 position differential. He’s not had a standout season this year but he’s still alive in the playoffs and could use a great finish or win to punch his ticket to the Round of 8.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,500 DK, $8,700 FD) – Stenhouse is perfect for this type of racing as it takes aggressive moves and confidence to be good at plate racing. He’s posted two top-fives and three top-10s in the last four Fall Talladega races and in his last nine races here, he’s posted a win, four top-fives, and five top-10s with a 12.9 average finish. His last Cup win came at a plate track and he wants to go out on a high note with RCR while trying to get a new ride for 2020.

There aren’t really any contrarian or fades this week simply because of the type of racing that this track involves.

There will be no momentum tables either since they don’t have much weight heading into the Talladega race.

Last Five 1000Bulbs.com 500 Races

  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Joey Logano517.8114.413.424455
Brad Keselowski58.411.214.2-5.823333
Aric Almirola519.620.613.85.812334
Ricky Stenhouse Jr410.015.310.8-0.802333
Clint Bowyer521.41913.28.202334
Denny Hamlin515.816.613.62.202334
Ryan Newman519.626.811.68.002244
Kurt Busch58.89.612.0-3.201344
Landon Cassill533.82521.812.001111
Paul Menard518.615.815.23.400244
Kevin Harvick518.61215.82.800234
Kyle Larson527.013.814.212.800134
  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Austin Dillon520.82316.44.400134
Jimmie Johnson57.21219.2-12.000112
Erik Jones219.02322.0-3.000111
Martin Truex Jr517.621.824.0-6.400111
David Ragan527.226.226.60.600111
Ty Dillon227.01813.014.000022
Brendan Gaughan231.522.515.516.000012
Daniel Suarez213.51215.5-2.000012
Chase Elliott33.7919.7-16.000012
Ryan Blaney511.214.224.6-13.400012
Reed Sorenson2242825.5-1.500011
Kyle Busch519.222.626.8-7.600011
  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Bubba Wallace117.01919.0-2.000001
Chris Buescher329.022.320.09.000001
William Byron18.01620.0-12.000001
Ross Chastain1363124-5.500000
Joey Gase237.02625.012.000001
Michael McDowell522.024.231.0-9.000001
Corey LaJoie140.03432.08.000000
Matt DiBenedetto432.527.832.00.500000
Alex Bowman419.321.336.3-17.000000
Daniel Hemric0000000000
Matt Tifft0000000000
Ryan Preece0000000000
Austin Theriault0000000000
Spencer Boyd0000000000
Blake Jones0000000000
Parker Kligerman0000000000

  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. Driver
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRating
Joey Logano512424.8214.278%103.8
Brad Keselowski513026.0183.676%97.8
Aric Almirola510.2214.237%75.5
Ricky Stenhouse Jr4143.5194.854%87.9
Clint Bowyer520.4346.845%83.4
Denny Hamlin5224.4255.058%84.7
Ryan Newman5142.8234.612%65.6
Kurt Busch511222.4183.682%101.5
Landon Cassill500.091.812%60.2
Paul Menard520.4214.259%82.1
Kevin Harvick55210.4173.468%91.8
Kyle Larson500.0173.464%87.2
  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. Driver
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRating
Austin Dillon510.2255.021%67.8
Jimmie Johnson511823.6132.672%94.3
Erik Jones200.073.533%60.4
Martin Truex Jr530.691.840%68.7
David Ragan530.6142.818%56.4
Ty Dillon200.0115.534%76.4
Brendan Gaughan273.563.015%64.5
Daniel Suarez2115.573.571%79.8
Chase Elliott33511.7134.385%90.7
Ryan Blaney5367.271.469%81.3
Reed Sorenson200.031.521%52
Kyle Busch5183.6224.440%66.8
  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. Driver
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRating
Bubba Wallace100.022.023%66.9
Chris Buescher300.051.723%58.5
William Byron155.077.038%74.1
Ross Chastain110.002.53%41.5
Joey Gase200.021.06%50.8
Michael McDowell500.0183.626%58.8
Corey LaJoie100.000.00%33
Matt DiBenedetto4143.561.57%48.2
Alex Bowman400.0174.339%60.9
Daniel Hemric0000000
Matt Tifft0000000
Ryan Preece0000000
Austin Theriault0000000
Spencer Boyd0000000
Blake Jones0000000
Parker Kligerman0000000

Top-20 Drivers Over Last 10 Talladega Races

  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Joey Logano1016.112.311.74.436677
Brad Keselowski108.110.714.7-6.634566
Ricky Stenhouse Jr99.915.712.9-3.014556
Aric Almirola1021.317.713.18.213678
Chase Elliott75.110.714.0-8.913345
Kurt Busch1011.211.39.41.802799
Ryan Newman1019.325.113.45.902577
Denny Hamlin1014.216.616.9-2.702467
Clint Bowyer1017.921.517.70.202456
Kyle Busch918.216.718.00.202355
  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Paul Menard1014.915.616-1.101467
Kevin Harvick1017.214.716.70.501467
Jimmie Johnson1011.313.317.3-6.001345
Austin Dillon1016.320.620.5-4.201256
Ryan Blaney1012.413.620.8-8.401246
Martin Truex Jr1017.217.821.9-4.701234
Alex Bowman719.118.624.4-5.301223
Landon Cassill93226.924.77.301122
Ryan Preece130213.027.001111
Daniel Hemric15155.00.001111

  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. Driver
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRating
Joey Logano1024724.70363.6074%98.6
Brad Keselowski1023823.80363.6076%99.3
Ricky Stenhouse Jr9495.44475.2253%83
Aric Almirola10292.90313.1047%78.9
Chase Elliott710715.29253.5774%93.4
Kurt Busch1011811.80434.3075%97
Ryan Newman10171.70545.4016%64.1
Denny Hamlin10868.60393.9055%83.3
Clint Bowyer10121.20606.0037%72.3
Kyle Busch9829.11394.3360%83.1
  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. Driver
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRating
Paul Menard10111.10424.2055%80.8
Kevin Harvick10898.90383.8060%86.6
Jimmie Johnson1017117.10272.7068%89.4
Austin Dillon1010.10505.0030%69.8
Ryan Blaney10404.00313.1067%86.7
Martin Truex Jr10141.40222.2053%78.6
Alex Bowman7334.71314.4344%71.8
Landon Cassill900.00202.2212%57.2
Ryan Preece100.0055.0018%74.7
Daniel Hemric100.0055.0052%85.5

Top-20 Drivers Over Similar Races (Daytona and Talladega)

  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Joey Logano2012.913.713.2-0.3410121313
Brad Keselowski2013.213.720.8-7.645689
Denny Hamlin2014.815.115.2-0.42791114
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1912.715.816.1-3.4267811
Kurt Busch1912.413.913.6-1.214111313
Aric Almirola1922.418.415.27.21481314
Chase Elliott156.315.121.5-15.213357
Austin Dillon2015.818.917.8-2.01271114
Erik Jones1119.821.122.4-2.612445
Kyle Busch1815.617.117.6-2.0056911
  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Ryan Newman2019.323.513.55.804101415
Jimmie Johnson2013.414.217.5-4.1047911
Kevin Harvick2013.815.318.8-5.0047911
Clint Bowyer2015.619.918.1-2.50381012
Paul Menard2018.416.317.11.3037913
Martin Truex Jr2017.917.121.0-3.103579
Ryan Blaney1912.613.922.2-9.6024710
Michael McDowell1824.121.322.81.302478
Chris Buescher1627.123.222.84.302357
Ty Dillon1323.518.417.36.201379

  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. Driver
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRating
Joey Logano2035417.7834.269%94
Brad Keselowski2040020.0572.966%90.1
Denny Hamlin2027513.8613.161%85.9
Ricky Stenhouse Jr191467.7884.651%83.5
Kurt Busch191437.5814.366%88.6
Aric Almirola19321.7733.843%75.8
Chase Elliott1517111.4604.061%81.9
Austin Dillon20643.2854.340%73.5
Erik Jones11252.3464.236%69.7
Kyle Busch181769.8703.955%81.4
  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. Driver
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRating
Ryan Newman20201.01075.423%64.5
Jimmie Johnson2028414.2673.465%88.2
Kevin Harvick201708.5693.559%87.8
Clint Bowyer20231.2995.042%72.3
Paul Menard20130.7794.054%79.7
Martin Truex Jr20442.2582.953%78.7
Ryan Blaney191839.6633.367%87.2
Michael McDowell18201.1724.033%65.6
Chris Buescher1630.2362.325%61
Ty Dillon13201.5624.838%74.6

Team Averages at Talladega (since Feb. 2017)

 Avg.  TopTop
DriverFinishRacesWins510
Germain Racing14.25000
Team Penske14.5413256
Roush Fenway Racing15.810145
Hendrick Motorsports1620149
Richard Petty Motorsports16.65022
Joe Gibbs Racing16.720026
Tommy Baldwin Racing171000
Beard Motorsports17.45001

Price Changes At Talladega

DraftKings

DraftKings Price Changes
 AprilOct. 
Driver$$Diff.
Kyle Busch$12,000$10,900-$1,100
Martin Truex Jr$10,100$10,700$600
Kevin Harvick$11,600$10,500-$1,100
Denny Hamlin$9,200$10,300$1,100
Chase Elliott$9,500$10,100$600
Kyle Larson$8,500$9,800$1,300
Brad Keselowski$10,700$9,600-$1,100
Joey Logano$11,200$9,400-$1,800
Clint Bowyer$8,900$9,200$300
Ryan Blaney$9,800$9,000-$800
Kurt Busch$9,000$8,800-$200
William Byron$6,800$8,600$1,800
 AprilOct. 
Driver$$Diff.
Alex Bowman$7,200$8,400$1,200
Jimmie Johnson$8,300$8,200-$100
Erik Jones$8,700$8,100-$600
Matt DiBenedetto$7,000$7,900$900
Daniel Suarez$7,900$7,700-$200
Aric Almirola$8,100$7,600-$500
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$7,400$7,500$100
Ryan Newman$7,800$7,300-$500
Austin Dillon$7,600$7,100-$500
Paul Menard$6,700$7,000$300
Ty Dillon$6,500$6,800$300
Chris Buescher$6,900$6,600-$300
 AprilOct. 
Driver$$Diff.
Daniel Hemric$6,200$6,400$200
Bubba Wallace$6,000$6,200$200
Ryan Preece$6,400$6,100-$300
Michael McDowell$5,300$5,900$600
Brendan Gaughan$5,600$5,700$100
Ross Chastain$5,800$5,600-$200
Corey LaJoie$5,000$5,500$500
David Ragan$5,400$5,400$0
Matt Tifft$6,100$5,300-$800
Landon Cassill$4,800$5,200$400
Reed Sorenson$4,600$4,900$300
Parker Kligerman$5,200$4,800-$400

FanDuel

FanDuel Price Changes
 AprilOct. 
Driver$$Diff.
Joey Logano$13,500$14,500$1,000
Denny Hamlin$12,800$14,000$1,200
Kevin Harvick$13,000$13,500$500
Kyle Busch$14,000$13,000-$1,000
Brad Keselowski$13,200$12,500-$700
Chase Elliott$12,000$12,000$0
Martin Truex Jr$11,000$11,500$500
Clint Bowyer$11,400$11,000-$400
Alex Bowman$7,500$10,500$3,000
Ryan Blaney$11,600$10,200-$1,400
William Byron$7,200$10,000$2,800
Kurt Busch$11,200$9,700-$1,500
 AprilOct. 
Driver$$Diff.
Jimmie Johnson$9,500$9,500$0
Kyle Larson$9,000$9,200$200
Aric Almirola$12,500$9,000-$3,500
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$10,500$8,700-$1,800
Erik Jones$8,500$8,300-$200
Daniel Suarez$10,000$8,000-$2,000
Ryan Newman$7,300$7,500$200
Paul Menard$7,800$7,000-$800
Matt DiBenedetto$7,000$6,500-$500
Ty Dillon$6,500$6,000-$500
Chris Buescher$6,200$5,500-$700
Austin Dillon$8,300$5,000-$3,300
 AprilOct. 
Driver$$Diff.
Bubba Wallace$4,500$4,500$0
Daniel Hemric$5,500$4,500-$1,000
David Ragan$5,000$4,000-$1,000
Michael McDowell$4,000$4,000$0
Ryan Preece$6,000$4,000-$2,000
Brendan Gaughan$5,000$3,500-$1,500
Corey LaJoie$3,000$3,000$0
Ross Chastain$4,000$3,000-$1,000
Matt Tifft$4,500$2,500-$2,000
Landon Cassill$4,000$2,000-$2,000
Parker Kligerman$3,500$2,000-$1,500
Reed Sorenson$3,000$2,000-$1,000

DraftKings Scoring Averages

Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgDK Seas. Avg.
Kyle Busch4.257.5342.7565.8812.7061.59
Martin Truex Jr10.520.5-34.5742.7515.5014.6553.37
Kevin Harvick627.552.52466.516.7535.3048.77
Denny Hamlin494950-18.2551.2549.0036.2045.39
Chase Elliott-8.52226.75  6.7513.4240.11
Kyle Larson603256.519.553.546.0044.3040.52
Brad Keselowski17.2554.75-747.55536.0033.5045.24
Joey Logano5656.7573.75616556.3862.5045.7
Clint Bowyer45-15.548607514.7542.5028.68
Ryan Blaney824.2539.25-337.7516.139.2535.75
Kurt Busch482.2543.538.7548.525.1336.2036.54
William Byron16.75    16.7516.7531.34
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgDK Seas. Avg.
Alex Bowman-12.5 -717-26-12.50-7.1336.48
Jimmie Johnson38.54.516.520.52021.5020.0028.57
Erik Jones46.5-5   20.7520.7531.92
Matt DiBenedetto1218.5260 15.2514.1332.06
Daniel Suarez27.531.75   29.6329.6331.53
Aric Almirola53.25615538.5-1457.1338.7530.17
Ricky Stenhouse Jr51.5-0.543.548.5 25.5035.7521.52
Ryan Newman17.569.7539.540.7549.543.6343.4035.76
Austin Dillon33.57.536.2544.55120.5034.5523
Paul Menard5743.530.548-750.2534.4029.02
Ty Dillon45.550   47.7547.7528.25
Chris Buescher283934.5  33.5033.8329.7
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgDK Seas. Avg.
Daniel Hemric       17.41
Bubba Wallace24    24.0024.0023.9
Ryan Preece       22.3
Michael McDowell-21.517.546.517.5-31-2.005.8017.36
Brendan Gaughan 44.5   44.5044.5040.75
Ross Chastain32.25    32.2532.2521.93
Corey LaJoie20    20.0020.0022.66
David Ragan-1859.536.59.2510.520.7519.5515.98
Matt Tifft       20.99
Landon Cassill38193518.565.2528.5035.1517.44
Joey Gase45.517.5   31.5031.5016.25
Reed Sorenson  -18 53.5 17.7514.5
Parker Kligerman       22.83
Blake Jones       0
Austin Theriault       9.62
Spencer Boyd       6.5

FanDuel Scoring Averages

Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgFD Seas. Avg.
Kyle Busch25.92622.453.21625.9528.7063.02
Martin Truex Jr31.334.1-14.271.62632.7029.7661.15
Kevin Harvick24.439.660.74266.632.0046.6657.11
Denny Hamlin59.358.760.99.252.559.0048.1259.14
Chase Elliott16.238.845.1  27.5033.3752.98
Kyle Larson60.846.363.236.155.953.5552.4652.97
Brad Keselowski30.9658.460.165.647.9546.0056.75
Joey Logano62.861.274.269.163.962.0066.2459.12
Clint Bowyer59.37.551.263.372.433.4050.7449.28
Ryan Blaney26.938.951.5-7.630.932.9028.1252.28
Kurt Busch50.622.957.752.758.936.7548.5654.68
William Byron34.8    34.8034.8052.01
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgFD Seas. Avg.
Alex Bowman14.1 15.629.4-3.314.1013.9554.21
Jimmie Johnson52.826.134.238.533.839.4537.0850.38
Erik Jones55.81.1   28.4528.4549.57
Matt DiBenedetto28.928.837.216.7 28.8527.9050.67
Daniel Suarez42.845   43.9043.9051.54
Aric Almirola63.965.361.249.17.664.6049.4250.19
Ricky Stenhouse Jr61.822.256.355.8 42.0049.0344.38
Ryan Newman33.871.649.251.759.452.7053.1455.38
Austin Dillon45.323.651.352.655.934.4545.7444.68
Paul Menard61.851.845.758.315.856.8046.6850.77
Ty Dillon52.355.8   54.0554.0549.12
Chris Buescher41.847.743.7  44.7544.4050.24
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgFD Seas. Avg.
Daniel Hemric       40.71
Bubba Wallace40.3    40.3040.3044.62
Ryan Preece       44.29
Michael McDowell3.527.653.232-3.815.5522.5039.23
Brendan Gaughan 48.3   48.3048.3045.30
Ross Chastain42.4    42.4042.4039.96
Corey LaJoie32.1    32.1032.1042.88
David Ragan7.861.344.226.628.134.5533.6039.60
Matt Tifft       41.85
Landon Cassill46.331.144.229.96938.7044.1037.34
Joey Gase51.827.9   39.8539.8530.93
Reed Sorenson  9.4 57.4 33.4032.18
Parker Kligerman       35.84
Blake Jones       47.60
Austin Theriault       30.20
Spencer Boyd       29.55

Weekly Rankings (1=Best, 40=Worst)

Race History, Track History, Track Type History columns are all ranked on average finishes over those spans. Scoring columns are ranked from highest scoring to lowest scoring over those spans.

DriverDK$FD $Race HistoryDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Talladega HistoryTrack Type History
Kyle Busch$10,900$13,00029303030281711
Martin Truex Jr$10,700$11,50023262427272219
Kevin Harvick$10,500$13,50014232611121314
Denny Hamlin$10,300$14,000743810145
Chase Elliott$10,100$12,0001829292925823
Kyle Larson$9,800$9,200966442119
Brad Keselowski$9,600$12,50099916131118
Joey Logano$9,400$14,5001221141
Clint Bowyer$9,200$11,00062822651613
Ryan Blaney$9,000$10,20025252331301924
Kurt Busch$8,800$9,700416188833
William Byron$8,600$10,00019231926222421
DriverDK$FD $Race HistoryDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Talladega HistoryTrack Type History
Alex Bowman$8,400$10,50033323233332622
Jimmie Johnson$8,200$9,50017181622211510
Erik Jones$8,100$8,30022192821293226
Matt DiBenedetto$7,900$6,50031272728313432
Daniel Suarez$7,700$8,00012131119171031
Aric Almirola$7,600$9,0008117665
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$7,500$8,7002151310757
Ryan Newman$7,300$7,5003875372
Austin Dillon$7,100$5,00015212113141812
Paul Menard$7,000$7,00011341411128
Ty Dillon$6,800$6,0005552299
Chris Buescher$6,600$5,50019101015152327
DriverDK$FD $Race HistoryDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Talladega HistoryTrack Type History
Daniel Hemric$6,400$4,5004040404040215
Bubba Wallace$6,200$4,50016171420192917
Ryan Preece$6,100$4,000404040404014
Michael McDowell$5,900$4,00030313132323627
Brendan Gaughan$5,700$3,5001278392016
Ross Chastain$5,600$3,00023111217183140
Corey LaJoie$5,500$3,00031222522262424
David Ragan$5,400$4,00028192024232629
Matt Tifft$5,300$2,50040404040403733
Landon Cassill$5,200$2,00021141712162930
Joey Gase$5,100$2,00026121518202840
Reed Sorenson$4,900$2,00027404025243534
Parker Kligerman$4,800$2,00040404040403240
Blake Jones$4,700$2,00040404040404040
Austin Theriault$4,600$2,00040404040404040
Spencer Boyd$4,500$2,00040404040404040