The first playbook of the playoffs is here! It’s the second race at Vegas this year, the first one was just the third race of the season, and this one is shaping up to be quite a show. The track looked to have multiple racing grooves in practice which could be a sign of cars moving all over throughout the race. Also the high temp on Sunday is projected to be the hottest of the year at 101 for green flag and then shadows will come into play as the race moves into the second half and that will cool it down make the cars handle better and the racing really pick up as it has in the evening races this year.

The race is slated for 267 laps around the 1.5-mile track making a 400-mile contest with the stages being 80-80-107. In terms of strategy for the South Point 400, we’re looking for a couple of drivers to lead a bunch of laps and then the rest to fill the position differential scoring up. This race alternates between one driver leading over 120 laps and the rest splitting them relatively evenly and then two drivers leading between 80-100 laps and the rest leading 20 or less. Either way we are looking for the one or two that will top the laps led points. Also as a side note, the driver that has sat on the Pole has only won once in the 23 Cup races at Vegas and that was Kyle Busch in 2009. Sixteen total starting spots have seen a winner start there since Cup cars start racing at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

If you want to see more stats, or strategy breakdown, check out the Track Breakdown, Practice Notes, and Podcast that came out over the last few days.

Points By Starting Position

These are an average of points scored on each site by starting spot regardless of driver in the last five previous races. Those races are last year’s Fall race and then the four prior March races. This is also not a be-all-end-all tool but more of a suggestion or ballpark. Just because a driver is starting in a spot that hasn't done well, doesn't mean that can't change for this race.

DriverStarting PositionAvg. DK Pts.RankAvg. FD Pts.RankDriverStarting PositionAvg. DK Pts.RankAvg. FD Pts.Rank
Clint Bowyer133.101346.2618Paul Menard2129.001548.0217
Daniel Suarez275.50172.201Joey Logano2234.501153.569
Kevin Harvick35.854033.2838Ryan Blaney2338.30755.987
Aric Almirola440.55659.886Martin Truex Jr2423.402445.7220
Kurt Busch532.701451.0014Matt DiBenedetto2528.301749.5016
Daniel Hemric633.951255.288Erik Jones2620.302643.1225
Austin Dillon717.403243.3424Ty Dillon2716.353435.8836
Chase Elliott823.952350.0815Chris Buescher2824.802045.5421
Jimmie Johnson915.153638.7632Matt Tifft2934.70953.0810
Michael McDowell1051.60362.723Landon Cassill3024.602144.4223
DriverStarting PositionAvg. DK Pts.RankAvg. FD Pts.RankDriverStarting PositionAvg. DK Pts.RankAvg. FD Pts.Rank
David Ragan1153.50264.602Bubba Wallace318.403930.1440
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1218.752942.8826Ross Chastain3219.202740.5229
Denny Hamlin1334.551051.8011Corey LaJoie3318.153139.5230
William Byron1424.252245.5421Garrett Smithley3428.001841.8428
Kyle Larson1528.401651.5012BJ McLeod3518.203037.5233
Ryan Preece1635.00851.0413JJ Yeley3615.203533.7437
Ryan Newman1710.403837.0034Reed Sorenson3727.801946.1619
Brad Keselowski1851.30460.144Joe Nemechek3819.202739.1031
Alex Bowman1922.402541.9227Joey Gase3913.403731.2439
Kyle Busch2043.00559.905      

Stacks

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