The air is getting crisper by the day, especially if you’re in the Northeast, and football is starting. The king of all fantasy sports might distract you from the end of baseball season, but let’s not forget there are still championships on the line and in some leagues playoff spots for the taking. So it’s always a tricky time of year to keep focus on baseball given that the rosters expand on September 1st to 40 players instead of the 25-man rosters they’ve been trudging through with thus far. That means there are 15 guys per team that can be called up from the minors to get a taste of the majors or to help with the playoff push. Don’t get too excited yet though since a lot of these guys won’t actually make an impact that’s worthy of paying attention to. It’s in that vein that we look at the fantasy strategy for this last month of baseball games.

The first thing to keep in mind is this: just because a team has good prospects, doesn’t mean they’re going to get a call-up to the majors. In fact, there are teams that have already announced that their top prospects aren’t going to get the call, like the Angels and Jo Adell . If the minor league affiliates are in the playoffs, which the upper levels have going on right now, the major league brass may elect to have those players help the minor league affiliate win in their respective playoffs to garner post-season experience. There is also the Arizona Fall League, the top fall development league for prospects to show off their skills against fellow prospects of the same ilk. Those rosters are being formalized as of the writing of this piece, and there are already several top prospects in the game that are slated to play in the desert like the Astros’ Forrest Whitley , Phillies’ Alec Bohm, Indians’ Nolan Jones, the Nationals’ Luís Garcia (not to be confused with the Phillies prospect of the same name), Twins’ Royce Lewis , Giants’ Joey Bart , Brewers’ Tristen Lutz, Mariners’ Jarred Kelenic, and the aforementioned Jo Adell . That makes seven of the top-38 prospects in baseball that have been announced so far, and there are still more than two weeks until first pitch on September 17th.

A second thing to keep in mind is: just because a team calls up a prospect that you have been scouting or have on your roster or are interested in adding, doesn’t mean they will get meaningful playing time once September 1 arrives. It is typical to see playoff teams not use a lot of call ups, at least early in the period, since they want to keep their 25-man roster in sync and grinding towards that playoff goal they’ve had for five months at this point. Throwing in off days for the regulars is nice, however throwing off a pitcher’s rhythm or a batter finding their groove in the box is more detrimental to the present than it is helpful to the future. Once teams begin to clinch post-season berths, you’ll see more playing time for call-ups on a regular basis as they start to give the playoff bound players a bit of a rest. So even if a player gets called up who has had a good stats year in the minors or has a skill that could benefit your fantasy team the rest of the way, say like steals, it’s hard for said player to accumulate stats if they aren’t playing everyday.

Thirdly, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention this: just because a player had a heck of a season in the upper levels of the minors, doesn’t mean those stats translate to the major league level. Earlier this year on the podcast and in article form, we talked about what stats generally set guys up for success in the major league level outside of a great slash line and counting stats. Even great players get sent down after not performing in the majors i.e. Mike Trout when he first came up, he didn’t last long and went back to the minors for a bit before sticking full-time in the majors. We’re not just talking pitchers who come up for a cup of coffee and then head back down, we’re also talking guys like Kyle Tucker who just put up a 30-30 season at Triple-A Round Rock this year but struggled in three stints with the Astros last year. Major League hitters and pitchers are there for a reason, if a call-up has a hole in their game, they will exploit it and make the call-ups life miserable at the dish or toeing the rubber. Recall the case of Austin Riley who had yet to adjust to what pitchers were doing to him, prior to getting injured, and his stats and slash line fell off a cliff. So don’t go all in on a prospect helping you win your league at this point in the year because the likelihood it happens is slim at best.

The last point I’d like to bring up is this one: if you’re in a keeper league that allows for in-season pick-ups to be rostered for the following year, now is a great time to pounce on that rule. A lot of your league-mates will be distracted by fantasy football and the NFL in general and will tune back into baseball for the playoffs in October. That means you have a whole month to work the waiver wire without much competition and use that advantage for those precious keeper opportunities. Teams that are far out of the playoffs at this point, and we all know who they are, will use this time of the year as an extra spring training of sorts to see what they have in the minor league ranks going forward. Some of those guys will play well enough to firmly entrench themselves in the conversation for Opening Day roster spots next year, and you have the chance to get them before anyone else can draft them. That’s not to say that this month is replete with guaranteed starters next year but, there are a few that are worth looks like Ryan Mountcastle or Austin Hays in Baltimore and Jesús Sánchez or Edward Cabrera in Miami.

You can use this time of the season to get guys that can occasionally help fill a need like speed or a pitcher with some ratio help, but don’t be fooled by the trappings and just think that any player getting called up is worth a roster spot or yours. Let your league-mates who are just reading the headlines this time of year fall for that while you get the prospects that can actually stick with the club, contribute, and may lockdown a spot on the 25-man roster next year.