Hype. It’s what drives the prospect train down the track and what drives fantasy owners to invest picks and FAAB into prospect pickups before or during the season as well. Hype is a double-edged blade though. It certainly can be great to have a hyped prospect, as long as they produce, as you can use said prospect to elevate your team’s play or as a trade chip both in reality and fantasy realms. However, how many times have we seen a hyped-up prospect not live up to expectations the higher they get into a system or once they break into the majors? It happens all the time. Fans are growing ever-more-impatient with the waiting game on waiting for prospects to develop, so this week we will look at some guys that, while the fan bases and prospect hunters alike are excited about, still have things to prove in the minors.

Jo Adell, OF LAA 

The former first-round pick in the 2017 draft is a top-five prospect in baseball at the moment, so what is he doing on this list? Durability. There is no question about his abilities on the field as he’s combined for a .298/.363/.527 slash in 208 career games with 35 home runs, 165 runs, 137 RBI, and 29 steals with 11 of those games coming in Triple-A this year with a .217/.308/.261 slash, seven runs and two RBI. The problem for him has been the build up of injuries already in his career. He missed about three weeks of action in 2018 last year between two different IL stints that limited him to 99 games played and now this year Adell missed essentially the first two months of the season with hamstring and ankle injuries sustained in spring training. In the 60 games played this year, he’s slashing a combined .287/.368/.496 with 10 homers, 39 runs, 30 RBI, and six steals. If he can stay healthy and shed these nagging injuries, the 20-year-old who’s already made Triple-A Salt Lake City, will be on track for his debut mid-2020 to add another five-tool player in the outfield next to Mike Trout.

ETA: 2020

 

Forrest Whitley, RHP HOU

Ah Mr. Whitley. He’s been a household name in the prospect realm for a few years now but hasn’t really made a lot of progress towards cracking the major league rotation in Houston. Obviously part of that was the suspension doled out last year for the failed drug test, but he also suffered an oblique and lat injury that held his workload down to 26.1 innings in the regular season at Double-A Corpus Christi pitching to a 3.76 ERA (3.34 FIP), 0.99 WHIP, .158 BAA, 11.62 K/9, and 3.76 BB/9 in that span. In 2019, he’s pitched in four different levels of the Astros’ system from rookie ball to Triple-A and back to Double-A where he currently is. It’s not just because of rehab starts that he did that, as his numbers in Triple-A were less than stellar to say the least. In 24.1 innings at Round Rock, Whitley posted a 12.21 ERA (8.10 FIP), 10.73 K/9, 5.55 BB/9, 2.05 WHIP, and .337 BAA (.394 BABIP against). None of those are good, save for the double-digit K-rate. The righty has combined of an 8.66 ERA in 44.2 innings with a 60:32 K:BB ratio on the whole, which isn’t becoming of a future ace and one of the top pitching prospects in the game. He needs to rebound the rest of this year and then start next year off hot if he hopes to crack the Astros’ rotation in 2020, which should have holes in it for Whitley to fill.

ETA: 2020

Carter Kieboom, SS/2B WAS

There was a ton of fanfare that came with the Kieboom call-up in late-April but it turned out to be just a cup of coffee as he looked overmatched against major league pitching and fielding shortstop in D.C. Since being sent back down in early-May, his numbers have continued to fall each month at Triple-A Fresno as he hit .322/.451/.544 in 25 games in June with four homers, 22 runs, 21 RBI, and one caught stealing. In July he slashed .292/.351/.382 with two homers, 11 runs, and nine RBI in 21 games, followed by .277/.404/.404 in 12 games in August with one homer, nine RBI, eight runs, and two steals. It’s not great that while playing in the best hitter’s league in baseball, his numbers are dropping and in addition he’s also struck out nearly 25-percent of the time in that span, which is higher than any stop in pro ball since the 36 games in rookie ball in 2016. Kieboom’s biggest concern though has to be his defense at this point. We saw him commit four errors in 10 games with the Nationals but at Triple-A Fresno in 96 games, split between second, shortstop, and third base for eight games, he’s committed 13 errors, putting him on pace for 22 in a 162-game campaign. Ordinarily a team could overlook the defense for a bat that’s as quality as Kieboom’s is projected to be, but not up the middle at the Keystone or Short. He may get a taste of D.C. again in September when rosters expand but that’s assuming he gets the bat working better and solidifies the defense since the Nationals are still charging for a playoff spot this year.

ETA: 2020

 

Logan Webb, RHP SF

Webb, the Giants top-rated pitching prospect, started off April very well with a 2.00 ERA in 27 innings across five Double-A starts with a 31:7 K:BB and a 27.7-percent K-rate. However, and it’s a big however, he was then suspended for 80 games following a failed drug test. Since coming back, he’s made the jump to Triple-A, for his last start on Monday the 12th, but started three games at Double-A. The stat line is misleading however as he’s allowed 15 runs in the 21.1 innings pitched in his return, but he’s only been charged for five earned due to a 3.2-inning outing in which all 10 runs went unearned. In those 21.1 innings, he has a 2.11 ERA (2.70 FIP) and 24.5-percent K-rate, however if he gets charged for those 15 runs, the ERA balloons to 6.33. The start in Triple-A Sacramento went very well, seven innings of one-earned and seven-hit ball with seven strikeouts as his three above average pitches work well together in a 60-grade fastball, 60-grade slider, and 50-grade changeup. If Webb can keep the walks down, which he’s done a great job of doing in 2019, he has the ceiling of a number-two starter in the majors.

ETA: 2020

Jahmai Jones, 2B LAA

Jones was a second-round pick in 2015 after being a two-sport athlete in high school, and you may know his older brother, T.J. Jones who’s a wideout in the NFL. Charting a path in baseball has clearly already paid off for Jones and showed even more promise in 2017, his first full season in pro ball, when he put up a .282/.348/.446 triple slash with 14 home runs, 86 runs, 47 RBI, and 27 steals in 127 games split between Class-A and High-A. However, things began to slip in 2018 when he went from High-A to Double-A in the middle of the season when he slashed .239/.337/.380 with 10 home runs, 80 runs, 55 RBI, and 24 steals in 123 games and 482 at-bats. Now it’s dropped off more in 2019 with a .224/.293/.298 and four homers, 57 runs, 42 RBI, and eight steals in 112 games. Just so you know, his BABIP over that same time has been at or over .300 until this year where it sits at .276. So as he’s moved up the ratios and counting stats have dropped off without injuries playing a role in that either. As for defense, it’s starting to become clear that the Angels may have to move him to the outfield, which they’ve done some of, given the amount of errors he’s committed at the keystone. In 210 total games at second, he’s committed 42 errors, however, in 234 games at outfield, Jones has erred 15 times. There is no doubt that when he gets his 2017 form back, his five tools will show again, but there’s questions about if that will be the case as he progresses through the Angels’ system.

ETA: 2021

 

Taylor Widener, RHP ARI

Last year, Widener was with Arizona for the first time after being included in a three-way trade in February 2018, and he showed he worth the Diamondbacks part of the deal. Widener pitched 137.1 innings at Double-A with a 2.75 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 176 Ks, 43 walks, and a 1.03 WHIP. That’s a great year. This year however, he’s not been nearly as good with an 8.18 ERA, 5.95 FIP, 108 strikeouts, 41 walks, and 1.76 WHIP in 99 innings at Triple-A Reno and now has landed on the IL. Now there are extenuating circumstances as the ball changed in Triple-A this year and the Pacific Coast League, of which Reno is a part, is the toughest pitching league in the world of baseball. Even so, that’s a huge falloff between one year and the next. Once he’s healthy, Widener will really need to put together a strong run to show last year wasn’t a fluke for the righty.

ETA: 2020

Corey Ray, OF MIL

Ray was drafted out of Louisville in the first round of the 2016 MLB June draft and since then he’s been progressing like he should be for a former first-rounder. In his first full pro season in 2017, he swiped 24 bags while hitting .238/.311/.367 in 112 games at High-A with seven homers, 56 runs, and 48 RBI. Then he broke out in 2018, at Double-A Biloxi, with a .239/.323/.477 slash and 27 home runs, 86 runs, 74 RBI, and 37 thefts in 135 games. That’s what’s to be expected from the power-speed combo outfielder who doesn’t have the greatest hit tool in the world. The issue for Ray comes when you look at 2019 to this point where he’s hitting .213/.292/.340 with five homers, 24 runs, 15 RBI, and six steals in 52 games. Some of it can be explained away by the avulsion fracture in his wrist that kept him out a month starting in May after trying to play through it but the rest of it comes from the 85 strikeouts in those 52 games and 197 at-bats for an astonishing 43.1-percent K-rate. He desperately needs to find the strike zone again or have a better idea of game plan when he steps into the box if he wants the 2017 numbers to show back up and raise his slash line up to the .250 range where it should be in all reality.

ETA: 2020

 

Logan Allen, LHP CLE

Allen had a great year in 2018 and that led to me supposition that he would be the first (or second) pitcher called-up by the Padres this year, which was incorrect because of the type of season he was having at Triple-A El Paso. In 57.2 innings at El Paso, the southpaw posted a 5.15 ERA, 4.90 FIP, 9.83 K/9, 3.43 BB/9, 1.44 WHIP, and .266 BAA. None of that is good except the strikeout rate, but a ton of guys strikeout that many nowadays. Allen was shipped to Cleveland in the Trevor Bauer, Yasiel Puig, Franmil Reyes three-team deal at the deadline but the change of scenery, and switch from the PCL, hasn’t really helped either. The brief time at Columbus (6.1 innings) has seen the lefty posted an 8.53 ERA, 5.36 FIP, and 5.68 BB/9. He did see time with the Padres, 25.1 innings, but that didn’t go well either with a 6.75 ERA, 5.94 FIP and nearly as many walks as strikeouts. The Indians just recalled Allen to add to their bullpen depth for the time being but this year has been remarkably disappointing after the two very good season of 2017 and 2018 preceding it.

ETA: 2019