**UPDATE: UP-TO-DATE QUALIFYING SPOTS ARE IN THE TABLE IN THE PRACTICE NOTES**

Eight cars failed pre-race inspection and we're shifted to the rear to start the race. Their qualifying times were also disallowed meaning they will be scored from their new starting spots for DFS purposes. Denny Hamlin, Aric Almirola, Erik Jones, Chase Elliott, Jimmie Johnson, Daniel Suarez, Matt Tifft, and Joey Gase all failed the first time. Any of these guys that aren't in the playbook are now playable this week in either format. Gusy that are in the playbook are even stronger plays now.

Just outside of the state capital of Virginia lies one of the most interesting tracks on the NASCAR Cup schedule. Richmond Raceway, previously known as Richmond International Raceway, is a three-quarter of a mile D-shaped Oval that hosts two Cup races a year around its flat sweeping corners and rough racing surface.

The turns are banked at 14 degrees in all four corners with the front-stretch tilted at eight degrees and the backstretch at two degrees. The surface of the track is right up there with Atlanta and Auto Club in terms of tire fall off and wear throughout a run meaning that long-run speed and knowing how to save tires is vital for success at this track.

In the Track Breakdown the starting positions of winners is shown but it’s important to note that Richmond changed size in 1988 from a half-mile to a three-quarter-mile length and since then only six winners have come from the pole and none have in the stage racing era. With 400 laps in the race there should still be ample amount of laps led and fastest laps points to be gotten on DraftKings and laps led and laps completed points on FanDuel.

The aero package this week is the same as at Phoenix and Martinsville and Bristol with the 750 horsepower, high down-force combination.

A word of caution here is that the lineup for the race is unofficial until Tech Inspection is complete early Saturday afternoon. With it being an impound race the cars aren’t allowed to be worked on following qualifying until just before the race starts. That being said, if a car fails pre-race inspection just once, their qualifying time is disallowed and they are shifted to the rear of the field in actuality and DFS alike. So keeping an eye out on updates that will be posted on Saturday is important.

Prop Bet Challenge

  1. Which Stewart Haas Racing driver finishes higher at Richmond? Aric Almirola or Clint Bowyer? I’m going to take Almirola. We briefly touched on these two drivers in the podcast and we’ll have exposure to both. But you get the sense Almirola is going to want to make some noise after a disastrous three-lap race last weekend. Almirola slipped from fifth to ninth in the points standings so he will want to get some points back this week. Almirola’s starting 15th, Bowyer is starting 21st. We’ll take Aric Almirola tonight.

 

  1. O/U 1.5 drivers lead over 90 laps at Richmond? I normally go conservative with this prop, but with 400 laps I think it’s possible to see two drivers lead 90 laps especially with Kevin Harvick starting on the pole and Kyle Busch in the top five as well. I’m going to mix it up for Richmond and take the OVER on this prop.

 

  1. There has been an average of 15.8 lead changes in the past four races at Richmond. O/U 15.5 lead changes on Saturday night? I haven’t fared too well with this prop lately so for his prop to coincide with the last one (two drivers leading 90+ laps) I’ll predict the UNDER for this prop.

 

  1. Does Joe Gibbs Racing win their sixth race of the season at Richmond? JGR consists of Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr., and Erik Jones. This is a tough call and it sucks to go against Kyle Busch who is in a tier all his own for NASCAR. Hamlin also has two wins this year, but I’m going to take the field this week and say No.

 

  1. Which Chevrolet will finish higher? Kyle Larson or Chase Elliott? Elliott is starting 7th and Larson is starting 14th and if you looked at the Track Breakdown from earlier this week these two have similar success at Richmond lately and their driver ratings are virtually identical. I’ll take Chase Elliott based on the grounds I feel he’s been running better than Larson lately.

 

  1. O/U Martin Truex Jr. scores 10.5 stage points at Richmond? I will take the UNDER for this particular prop. He’ll have to finish relatively high after the first two stages and that’s a tall order for Truex when he hasn’t looked great on short tracks this year so far.

 

  1. Denny Hamlin has an average finish of 5.7 the last six races at his home track. Does he finish in the top five this weekend? I’ll say Yes, which is a bit of a gamble when you consider the fact I’m saying No to JGR winning this week. But I do believe Hamlin finishes in the Top 5 this week. We both like Hamlin and will be playing him in DFS. Top 5 is well within reach for him.

 

  1. O/U Hendrick Motorsports has 1.5 drivers finish in the Top 10? This seems like a no brainer as in “Yes,” but I don’t want to overthink it. I definitely think Chase Elliott finishes in the Top 10. So one of either William Byron, Jimmie Johnson, or Alex Bowman would have to crack the Top 10. And I’m not entirely sure one of them does. The only one I think has a chance is JJ, but I think I’m actually going to take the UNDER this week.

 

  1. From 2015-2017, each Richmond race winner started inside the Top Five. Will this week’s winner start inside the Top Five? So the Top Five this week is Kevin Harvick, Erik Jones, Kurt Busch, Joey Logano, and Kyle Busch. Personally I think Logano wins it or Harvick finally gets his first win after registering 80 of the fastest laps last week. I’m going to say YES and acknowledge it’s somewhat of a hedge against my JGR prop from earlier in the event Kyle Busch or Erik Jones win.

 

  1.  Kevin Harvick leads all active drivers with 23 Top 10 finishes at Richmond. Does he add another to his resume this weekend? I’ll easily say Yes to this one. While he hasn’t won this year or dominated at Atlanta, Texas, Las Vegas, or Phoenix he still has six Top 10 finishes. I expect him to get another Top 10 finish heading into Talladega in two weeks.

Stacks

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