Kevin Harvick has failed pre-race inspection three times and will start from the rear and have a pass-through penalty to start the race while still be scored starting P13. Updated have happened to the Example lineups as well.

The famed high-banks and arena atmosphere of Bristol Motor Speedway is looming large on Sunday. Arising in the valleys of the Appalachian Mountains, on the Tennessee side of the state line, is the track known as “The Last Great Colosseum” and “The World’s Fastest Half-Mile.” Bristol is the second short track on the MENCS schedule this year but it’s unlike any other one out there and really any other track in general.

The fully concrete racing surface is banked at 26-30 degrees in the turns and 6-10 degrees in the straightaways depending on if you’re in the bottom groove or closer to the wall. Because of the concrete surface, the track doesn’t really take rubber and so the grip doesn’t build up like it does at other tracks, hence the reason they put PJ1 traction compound down in the bottom groove of the corners. The trick with the traction compound is that it needs to warm up to really come in otherwise it’s slick which could make things interesting early in the race.

Like ISM Raceway and Martinsville previously, the cars this week will have the full 750 horsepower, high-downforce package in place this week. There was plenty of passing at both of those tracks, not necessarily for the lead but back in the pack there were quite a few positions changing hands. The not passing for the lead is not a shock at a place like Bristol since 25 winners have come from the pole and another 13 others have come from the second starting spot making for 38 of the 116 winners in the history of the track coming from the front row in the grid.

With 500 laps on tap for Sunday’s race, there are a lot of opportunities for laps led and fastest laps and laps completed. In the last five spring races here, multiple drivers have led 100-plus laps four of the five and that should be the case once more this week. Consistency in finish positions at Bristol is hard to come by so paying attention to those who have shown that is also a key to building a lineup for this week’s race. That information can be found in the Track Breakdown. There is a new left-side tire from Goodyear this week that has been hardened a bit to better take the forces and loads with the increased speeds in this aero package. The downside is that it won’t lay quite as much rubber so the grip level might not be quite as high as it has been in the past.

Prop Bet Challenge

  1. The Busch brothers won both races at Bristol last year. Which one will have the higher finish on Sunday? We discussed Kyle Busch’s history at Bristol as of late and he has a win, but quite a few horrible finishes as well and Kurt Busch doesn’t get the recognition he often deserves. So to differentiate from the field today I’m going to suggest Kurt Busch, but he is starting ten spots behind Kyle. The younger Busch could just as easily win the race today, but I’m not sleeping on Kurt to possibly surprise some people.

 

  1. The last four spring races at Bristol have seen an average of 17.25 lead changes. O/U 17.5 lead changes? Selzman mentioned on the podcast that we should see a lot of lead changes today. Keep in mind this track is much different than Martinsville where Brad Keselowski had his way with the field and led almost 90% of 500 laps. Martinsville is flat, Bristol is not. We should see an uptick in lead changes today so I’m going to go bold and take the Over.

 

  1. Denny Hamlin’s lone victory at Bristol came in 2012. Will he add another victory to his resume after his strong performance last week? This seems like an easy NO. If you’re giving us the option of one driver or the field, it’s smart to take the field.

 

  1. The average start position for the race winner the past 6 races at Bristol is 10.6. Will Sunday’s race winner start inside the top 10? I’m going to say YES because Selzman mentioned earlier this week how a lot of the winners at Bristol started either on the pole or on the outside of the front row. And that’s just the first two guys. So there’s an edge to starting towards the front. Chase Elliott, William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Erik Jones, Denny Hamlin, Aric Almirola, Joey Logano, Clint Bowyer, Paul Menard, and Jimmie Johnson are starting inside the Top 10 this week so I’ll take one of them to win.

 

  1. Alex Bowman has an average finish of 6.5 at Bristol. Will he finish inside the Top 10 this weekend? Not only are his average finishes impressive, but he also has a really good PD history. Over his last three spring races at Bristol he carries a +8 PD differential on average. He’s starting 14th so a top ten finish is reasonable. I say YES.

 

  1. Which driver finishes higher at Bristol? Austin Dillon or Daniel Suarez? I’m going to say Daniel Suarez because his car looked great last week and he looked solid in practice this week despite qualifying 20th. Dillon could finish anywhere from the Top 10 to outside the Top 25. There’s so much variance with him. Suarez seems like the safe pick here.

 

  1. Will more than one driver lead more than 100 laps on Sunday? I’m going to say NO, but I’m not feeling great about it. I gave a lot of thought to saying yes because there are 500 laps in total and it’s not out of the realm of possibility for two guys to lead over 100. However, I’m also hoping for a lot of lead changes so I want to see numerous drivers get the lead and keep laps led at bay. I’ll take the conservative approach with say no.

 

  1. O/U 7.5 different leaders in Sunday’s race? I’m going to try and keep the correlation with some of my picks and say OVER. So I’ll be looking for a ton of lead changes, a lot of leaders, and under 100 laps led for most leaders.

 

  1. Matt DiBenedetto’s career best finish of sixth came at Bristol. Will he finish inside the top 10 on Sunday? He qualified 20th and had a combined practice ranking of 18th so it just doesn’t seem in the cards for him to crack the Top 10.  Not to mention, he has only one Top 20 finish this season. I hardly expect him to finish Top 10 in Bristol.

 

  1.  O/U 12.5 drivers earn stage points at Bristol? I’ll take the OVER on this one. Obviously there will be at least ten (duh) and with all the moving, cautions, passing, wrecks, etc. that could take place at Bristol it’s entirely feasible for three new faces to crack the Top 10 at the end of each stage.

Stacks

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