The biggest race of the year is the opening race for the NASCAR season. It seems a little backwards, but it definitely leads to the immediate attention ramp for the season as a whole. That being said, the track drivers the same as usual, the cars are the same as they always are on this track and there are no special rules in place this week, outside of the restrictor plates on the engines that is.

Daytona International Speedway is the host for the race, the most famous track on the NASCAR schedule. It’s a 2.5-mile Tri-Oval circuit per lap with banking in the turns at 31 degrees and then middle of the Tri-Oval is banked at 18 degrees. It’s the second-longest and second-steepest banked track on the schedule only behind Talladega which also means it’s one of the fastest tracks out there with speeds easily cracking 200 mph throughout the race. It might look like a smooth ride around the large oval, but that doesn’t mean that the race goes smoothly…ever.

The last five winners of the Daytona 500 started as follows:

2018: 14

2017: 8

2016: 11

2015: 5

2014: 9

That’s quite a bit of inconsistency in the starting spots, and that doesn’t even include the guys that start in the thirties and finish near the top-10…unlike any other tracks out there except for Talladega. That is the case with restrictor plate races, it just is.

In case you didn’t know, a restrictor plate literally refers to a metal plate with specific sized holes in it that gets mounted to the engine in order to restrict the horse power of all of the cars, in effect to help slow them down and make the track safer to race on. However, a side effect to that is it creating pack racing and dangerous conditions to draft and try and pass in and major crashes in every race that happens at these tracks.

Don’t worry though, what follows is a complete track breakdown to give you all of the relevant stats for the race to help you pick the best drivers to focus on throughout the week.

Drivers To Watch This Week

Track Data

Last Five Daytona 500s

  Avg. Avg.  TopTopTopTop
Driver#St.RPFin.PDW5101520
Denny Hamlin512.6115.47.214445
Joey Logano51310.45.67.412455
Austin Dillon515.217.410.44.811345
Kurt Busch48.811.314.5-5.711222
Jimmie Johnson523.817.619.64.202223
Kevin Harvick513.814.214.4-0.602233
Martin Truex Jr519.817.416.8301234
Ryan Blaney414.512.816.8-2.301223
Paul Menard523.415.817.26.201223
Aric Almirola52620.616.29.801144
Kyle Busch418.51921.3-2.801112
Brad Keselowski52715.824.62.401112
Bubba Wallace17112501111
Chris Buescher3252426.3-1.301111
Driver#St.RPFin.PDWT5T10T15T20
Casey Mears333.725.31617.700222
Kyle Larson522.621.6220.600123
Michael McDowell426.51917.5900133
Ryan Newman521.221.8201.200122
Clint Bowyer515.22425.8-10.600122
Ricky Stenhouse Jr523.420.623.6-0.200111
Matt DiBenedetto32724.325.31.700111
Jamie McMurray5131820.4-7.400013
Landon Cassill421.526.523.5-200012
Chase Elliott3222.328-2600011
Alex Bowman21519.520-500001
David Ragan52728.827000001
Brendan Gaughan2321919.512.500011
Erik Jones22130.537.5-16.500000
Driver#St.RPFin.PDWT5T10T15T20
Joey Gase1292323600000
William Byron13320231000000
Parker Kligerman14130291200000
Ty Dillon42119.530.5-9.500000
Corey LaJoie231.53532-0.500000
Daniel Suarez2183033-1500000
BJ McLeod0000000000
Cody Ware0000000000
Daniel Hemric0000000000
Matt Tifft0000000000
Ross Chastain0000000000
Ryan Preece0000000000
Ryan Truex0000000000
Tyler Reddick0000000000

 

Driver#Laps LedLL/RaceFast LapsFL/RaceT15 RateAvg. RatingLC
Denny Hamlin513727.4173.476%104.61009
Joey Logano55210.4285.679%105.41010
Austin Dillon5102.0306.049%78.31009
Kurt Busch4328.0235.873%96.2797
Jimmie Johnson57915.8153.056%82789
Kevin Harvick55010.0153.065%96.3905
Martin Truex Jr591.8214.259%81.5838
Ryan Blaney412030.0235.869%93.4782
Paul Menard5306.0265.258%82994
Aric Almirola581.6224.434%74.2955
Kyle Busch45614.0133.348%83.7703
Brad Keselowski5163.2163.258%85.6805
Bubba Wallace100.055.078%101.2207
Chris Buescher300.082.726%58.9425
Driver#Laps LedLL/RaceFast LapsFL/RaceT15 RateAvg. RatingLC
Casey Mears310.3113.719%65.7602
Kyle Larson5163.2224.438%69.4966
Michael McDowell400.0287.037%72.1810
Ryan Newman510.2265.230%62.9988
Clint Bowyer500.0193.826%59.5863
Ricky Stenhouse Jr5112.2224.430%73.5933
Matt DiBenedetto300.093.022%49.7489
Jamie McMurray5132.6224.451%74.3949
Landon Cassill400.0123.012%49.6617
Chase Elliott34615.3155.043%66.8461
Alex Bowman2136.584.045%70.3403
David Ragan510.2142.88%51.8874
Brendan Gaughan200.094.533%59.8398
Driver#Laps LedLL/RaceFast LapsFL/RaceT15 RateAvg. RatingLC
Erik Jones2115.563.014%63.5162
Joey Gase100.011.06%42.7196
William Byron100.055.021%61203
Parker Kligerman100.066.03%48.2193
Ty Dillon400.0184.532%68.4602
Corey LaJoie200.021.00%30201
Daniel Suarez200.021.014%49.2200
BJ McLeod000.000.00%00
Cody Ware000.000.00%00
Daniel Hemric000.000.0000
Matt Tifft000.000.0000
Ross Chastain000.000.0000
Ryan Preece000.000.0000
Ryan Truex000.000.0000
Tyler Reddick000.000.0000

 

Top-15 Drivers Over Last Daytona Races

  AvgRunAvg  TopTopTopTop
Driver#St.PosFin.PDWins5101520
Jimmie Johnson1513.917.320.8-6.925568
Denny Hamlin1521.913.513.88.1167911
Joey Logano1517.515.714.72.8158911
Kurt Busch1419.417.519.7-0.313566
Brad Keselowski1519.516.921.2-1.713457
Austin Dillon1113.117.713.4-0.312789
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1318.218.918.8-0.612358
Aric Almirola1324.719.320.14.612278
David Ragan1523.824.922.21.611246
Erik Jones4222321.30.711222
Kevin Harvick1515.42019.2-3.804678
Ryan Newman1518.722.115.13.603789
Kyle Busch1417.116.719.8-2.703348
Clint Bowyer1515.920.318.1-2.202699
Paul Menard1520.318.318.51.802569
Martin Truex Jr1520.717.322.1-1.402368

 

  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg.
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRatRating
Jimmie Johnson1523915.93503.3356%85.4
Denny Hamlin1528418.93442.9367%92.9
Joey Logano15624.13674.4761%90.4
Kurt Busch14745.29453.2155%81
Brad Keselowski1518912.60483.2051%81.7
Austin Dillon11181.64494.4550%78
Ricky Stenhouse Jr13796.08574.3838%76.8
Aric Almirola13221.69544.1538%74.1
David Ragan15302.00392.6022%60.5
Erik Jones4215.25184.5029%73.9
Kevin Harvick15855.67513.4047%81.1
Ryan Newman15312.07624.1329%68.4
Kyle Busch141198.50463.2955%83.2
Clint Bowyer15130.87684.5340%73.5
Paul Menard15382.53493.2749%78
Martin Truex Jr15553.67473.1353%78.2

 

Top-15 Drivers at Similar Tracks (Daytona and Talladega)

Driver#StRPFnPDWT5T10T15T20LedFastT15Avg
Joey Logano2016.214.114.51.7481012132938467%93.5
Brad Keselowski2014.715.420.5-5.8467794046561%87.8
Denny Hamlin2016.613.712.54.1281113162686066%92.6
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1915.118.215.9-0.82699121128842%78.6
Aric Almirola1923.519.415.48.12571314247439%74.6
Kurt Busch1913.612.814.5-0.9151012121867069%92.1
Austin Dillon2015.219.216.1-0.91391315199240%74.4
Erik Jones818.323.125.1-6.811333212731%66.3
Clint Bowyer2018.42116.61.804101213219739%72.5
Kevin Harvick2015.415.317.1-1.704811131736658%89
Jimmie Johnson2013.614.218.8-5.20468103016065%89.4
Kyle Busch1817.818.119.4-1.60447101526152%80.7
Paul Menard2017.916.616.81.10381013518453%80.3
Ryan Newman2018.524.315.43.10381113219121%61.8
Martin Truex Jr2019.318.820.9-1.6035810335348%76

 

DraftKings Points in Last Five Daytona 500s

Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgDK Seas. Avg.
Brad Keselowski12.00-1.5029.754.5076.255.2524.2039.07
Joey Logano44.2555.5038.0060.7560.5049.8851.8042.28
Kevin Harvick-12.0019.0047.5053.5057.003.5033.0066.26
Denny Hamlin49.5014.5082.2579.5049.0032.0054.9537.51
Clint Bowyer25.50-12.5013.0041.00-19.506.509.5039.09
Ricky Stenhouse Jr-0.756.0020.5022.0067.002.6322.9524.54
Kyle Busch8.50-6.0047.25 50.751.2525.1360.92
Chase Elliott-15.5030.25-25.75  7.38-3.6738.18
Aric Almirola62.2553.0056.5049.00-19.7557.6340.2039.37
Ryan Blaney65.0082.0015.50-21.00 73.5035.3833.89
Martin Truex Jr35.5057.5070.5038.75-38.5046.5032.7548.67
Kurt Busch12.5055.7532.50 16.7534.1329.3839.45
Jimmie Johnson3.505.2543.0046.7571.754.3834.0531.68
Daniel Suarez-12.005.00   -3.50-3.5029.02
Erik Jones-16.252.00   -7.13-7.1331.57
Alex Bowman16.25   29.0016.2522.6326.56
Kyle Larson47.0041.5045.507.50-13.5044.2525.6043.26
Austin Dillon64.7519.7548.2548.0031.7542.2542.5029.92
Jamie McMurray32.00-5.7519.009.0041.0013.1319.0524.01
Paul Menard53.7571.0046.0017.50-2.7562.3837.1025.86
Bubba Wallace49.50    49.5049.5021.94
Ryan Newman45.0017.0062.75-6.5021.0031.0027.8527.66
William Byron33.50    33.5033.5020.71
Daniel Hemric       2
Ryan Preece       0.00
Chris Buescher57.0012.50-16.50  34.7517.6725.86
David Ragan2.5014.0017.2538.5020.008.2518.4523.23
Brendan Gaughan15.0063.50   39.2539.2534
Michael McDowell53.0037.5058.007.50 45.2539.0021.04
Matt DiBenedetto28.0053.50-16.00  40.7521.8320.57
Ty Dillon-10.503.507.0021.00 -3.505.2523.95
Casey Mears  12.5076.7553.50 47.580
Landon Cassill 40.5022.50-25.0042.0040.5020.0019.43
Tyler Reddick       0
Matt Tifft       0
Corey Lajoie-4.0028.00   12.0012.0015
Ross Chastain       19.06
Joey Gase 27.50   27.5027.5020.86
BJ McLeod       13.38
Cody Ware       13.25
Parker Kligerman    30.00 30.0023.25
Ryan Truex       0

 

FanDuel Points in Last Five Daytona 500s

Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgFD Seas. Avg.
Brad Keselowski18.7018.5043.60 74.3018.7038.7853.89
Joey Logano58.5061.1054.5068.4062.2058.5060.9459.03
Kevin Harvick8.0035.2059.5064.8060.508.0045.6063.99
Denny Hamlin60.4037.4077.5076.7062.6060.4062.9255.15
Clint Bowyer44.108.8026.9055.30 44.1033.7855.02
Ricky Stenhouse Jr22.8019.3037.5033.8067.5022.8036.1846.44
Kyle Busch29.506.6060.40 52.9029.5037.3563.43
Chase Elliott4.0044.402.30  4.0016.9055.42
Aric Almirola63.7061.7060.0055.304.1063.7048.9656.04
Ryan Blaney64.5077.2036.006.00 64.5045.9350.93
Martin Truex Jr46.9059.2073.2054.40 46.9058.4358.29
Kurt Busch28.9066.6050.00 34.9028.9045.1055.23
Jimmie Johnson7.4015.4051.8058.7071.007.4040.8650.75
Daniel Suarez-0.1021.10   -0.1010.5047.82
Erik Jones-2.009.80   -2.003.9052.07
Alex Bowman37.80   40.8037.8039.3047.49
Kyle Larson51.9052.6057.5024.708.0051.9038.9456.91
Austin Dillon70.3038.1058.1055.3048.1070.3053.9851.07
Jamie McMurray47.0015.9038.5028.3051.0047.0036.1447.52
Paul Menard60.8070.0052.5034.3019.3060.8047.3846.15
Bubba Wallace63.20    63.2063.2042.39
Ryan Newman56.2036.3063.6013.4037.4056.2041.3849.62
William Byron43.30    43.3043.3041.77
Daniel Hemric       33.10
Ryan Preece       0.00
Chris Buescher64.7019.700.10  64.7028.1746.78
David Ragan14.2032.3032.1049.8029.1014.2031.5045.89
Brendan Gaughan31.3064.00   31.3047.6542.94
Michael McDowell59.2049.5058.0026.30 59.2048.2540.25
Matt DiBenedetto38.3060.000.10  38.3032.8041.26
Ty Dillon-0.1019.0029.5034.80 -0.1020.8045.14
Casey Mears  28.9072.9060.00 53.930.00
Landon Cassill 50.4038.50 52.00 46.9739.80
Tyler Reddick       0.00
Matt Tifft       0.00
Corey Lajoie-2.2039.80   -2.2018.8031.56
Ross Chastain       39.81
Joey Gase 40.60    40.6038.21
BJ McLeod       31.95
Cody Ware       27.80
Parker Kligerman    37.30 37.3040.55
Ryan Truex       0.00

 

Rankings For The Daytona 500

Rankings
 Race HistDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Daytona HistTrack Type Hist
Brad Keselowski24252721211916
Joey Logano3452343
Kevin Harvick5272413131211
Denny Hamlin216121231
Clint Bowyer262421302699
Ricky Stenhouse Jr2328252224117
Kyle Busch18292820221414
Chase Elliott29232233323322
Aric Almirola83467155
Ryan Blaney91110121719
Martin Truex Jr9681442318
Kurt Busch614131614133
Jimmie Johnson14262911171612
Daniel Suarez33303032333521
 Race HistDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Daytona HistTrack Type Hist
Erik Jones34323234342032
Alex Bowman1519192319829
Kyle Larson198919203023
Austin Dillon4975528
Jamie McMurray17202026252226
Paul Menard11229101010
Bubba Wallace1533112
Ryan Newman151715171655
William Byron20151612153233
Daniel Hemric40404040404040
Ryan Preece40404040404040
Chris Buescher27131728292620
David Ragan28222327282525
 Race HistDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Daytona HistTrack Type Hist
Brendan Gaughan13121479716
Michael McDowell1276882126
Matt DiBenedetto25101124272331
Ty Dillon31303131302715
Casey Mears7404046613
Landon Cassill22111025112924
Tyler Reddick40404040404040
Matt Tifft40404040404040
Corey Lajoie32212629313134
Ross Chastain40404040401728
Joey Gase20181818182730
BJ McLeod40404040404040
Cody Ware40404040404037
Parker Kligerman30404015233435
Ryan Truex40404040403636

Any questions can be answered in chat or on Twitter at @theselzman.