2019 MLB Draft Guide: Contract Year Players

Oh, the concept of a raise. Getting more money from your employer, or perhaps a new one, based on previous performance at said job. It happens in the real world all the time, maybe not as fast as you or I would hope for, but it almost assuredly happens at some point. The same can be said in the sports world. There are players who are getting paid less than what they should and quite a few getting paid more than what they should be based on their performances in the field of play. We could take all-day and perhaps longer to take note of all the players that fit that category across sports. We aren’t going to do that clearly. However, what we are going to do is to look at the idea of contract years in baseball and whether it’s wise to take that into account when constructing your fantasy team(s) this upcoming season.

The upcoming free agent market, the players hitting the open market following the 2019 World Series, is perhaps just as large and full of talent as the 2018-2019 free agent class was, though to be sure they each have their own strengths. The 2018 market was strong with position players headlining the class like Bryce Harper , Manny Machado , Josh Donaldson , A.J. Pollock . The 2019 class on the other hand is strong in the pitching department with some nice depth in hitting but certainly not the top end talent that 2018 had.

So at this point you’re probably thinking what’s the benefit to me and why is this in a fantasy baseball draft guide? Well I’m glad you asked, or at least thought it in this little scene we’re having. Here’s why it matters to you. If a player has a better chance of putting up big numbers in a contract year, than a higher return on investment is expected. If a player exhibits no propensity to put up bigger numbers, then maybe a standard season is more in the making. Both of which are helpful for you to know as a potential owner of theirs in this upcoming pivotal season.

There is a more obscure reason to know contract years though too, especially in a keeper format, that should be touched on now before we get bogged down in the stat party that’s about to happen. Knowing when a key player’s contract year is, can help scout out a cheaper option that may give you a starter the following season. A perfect example of that is Austin Riley going late in the drafts this year as he is the heir apparent at third base in Atlanta once Josh Donaldson likely leaves next offseason. Sure he won’t get a ton of playing time this year but when next year comes and he’s the youngster everyone wants to get their hands on, you’ll have already had him on your roster. Peter Alonso is another great example as he’s currently covered at first base by Todd Frazier and Dominic Smith and a few others, but guys that aren’t there but one year. You can get Alonso late in drafts this year and have the starting first baseman for the Mets in the second half of the season or for the start of next year when his stock will really take off.

Without further ado, let’s get this stat party started, position by position.

*The following tables have a line entitled 162-game Pace. This comes from baseball-reference.com and simply takes the players total games played and divides that by 162 and then divides their totals in each stat by that factor.

**The top free agents at each position aren’t listed simply because the premise is they are top players for a reason and therefore aren’t effected by contract years or whose around them in the lineup.

Catchers

Jason Castro

Castro signed a three-year deal with the Twins back in the offseason between the 2016 and 2017 seasons. He signed the contract following back-to-back 100-plus game seasons in Houston that were nearly identical in their outputs from the slash lines to the counting stats and when he was expected to bloom into the next good young catcher. Well for one season in Minnesota he showed that. In 2017 he played 110 games while slashing .242/.333/.388 with 10 homers, 49 runs, 47 RBI, and a .315 wOBA. Now that he’ll turn 32 this upcoming season and he’s coming off a severely injury-shortened season of just 19 games in 2017, Castro has a lot to prove in order to secure another major league contract even in a position that has dearth of talent to begin with. If he has a similar season to his first one in Minnesota, in 2016, then he may do just that this offseason.

Francisco Cervelli

Cervelli last was in a contract year in 2016 after he signed a one-year deal for that season with Pittsburgh. That contract followed perhaps his best season overall of his career in 2015 as he played the most games he’s played, the best batting average, most runs, and second-most RBI and home runs. Now he’s up for another contract year in 2019 as it’s the final year of his three-year, $31,000,000 deal he signed with the Pirates. That being said, he perhaps peaked a year early since his 2018 season was a career-year of sorts on its own. Cervelli set a career-high in OBP, SLG, home runs, and RBI along with ISO and wOBA being career marks as well. In fact, the 12 homers in 2018 account for nearly a third of his 35 career major league long balls. The veteran catcher will turn 33 this spring training but maybe heading into the 2019 campaign trying to prove that 2018 wasn’t an aberration or him simply finding “the zone” for a full season. The last two contract years for the backstop have provided two different seasons but surely if he hits just one home run he might find himself in a backup role in 2020.

Jonathan Lucroy

It’s been a strange journey for Lucroy the last three MLB seasons as he’s played for four different teams in that span and rejected a trade to Cleveland for a seemingly nonsensical reason. The trade from the Brewers to the Rangers happened while he had a year and a half left on his previous deal and therefore, the 2017-2018 offseason was his first time being an unrestricted free agent and saw him get a one-year, $6.5 million deal from the A’s followed this offseason by another one-year deal but this time for $3.35 million from the Angels. The 2016 season split between Milwaukee and Texas was a career year when put all together though the only career mark he set was home runs and slugging in a full-season. In 2017, he split the year between two teams again going from Texas to Colorado at the deadline and while his stats get better at Coors, like you’d expect, it was an underwhelming season while hitting 30 points lower and for a quarter of the homers from 2016. Even on a good offense in Oakland in 2018, his numbers still fell, putting up the worst full-season slash line of his career with the fewest HR since his rookie year in 2010 and worst BABIP and wOBA marks of his nine-year major-league career. Now he’s in a position in Anaheim to fight for playing time potentially and to prove that he can swing a good bat from behind the dish. The offense around him is full of quality hitters so this should be a good test to see what he’s still capable of.

James McCann

McCann has played his entire four-year major-league career for Detroit prior to signing a one-year deal with the White Sox this offseason. His case is a bit different since he still has an arbitration year left following the 2019 season meaning the White Sox could offer him an arbitration deal this coming December or let him go as a free agent in favor of their progressing catching prospects. There isn’t much of a difference throughout his counting stat lines in the last four years aside from two years having single-digit homers and back-to-back years having double-digit homers. The key difference in his stat lines come in the slashes in which he rotates from good slash lines in odd numbered years and bad slash lines in even years. His case may depend on what the White Sox want to do at season’s end but he can only strengthen his case if he has another .250-.265 average, .300-.320 OBP, and .390-.415 slugging slash line with double-digit homers and given that it’s an odd numbered year, that is entirely possible as he stays within the division he’s played in his whole career, just a better hitter’s park to call home.

First Base

José Abreu

Abreu was set to become a free agent after the 2019 season after signing a six-year, $68- million deal before the 2014 season, but now he will become a free agent after this season because his arbitration years run out. That’s right, he opted out of his contract after 2016 in order to go to arbitration deals, year-by-year, to get more money than the $34 million that was left on the last three years of his original deal. So far, it’s worked out as he was paid $13 million for 2018 and will now make $16 million for 2019. All of that being said, his 2018 season was the worst of his five-year MLB career across the board and it looks particularly bad coming on the heels of maybe his best all-around season since 2014. None of his contact splits, pull % - Cent% - Oppo% nor his soft% - Med% - Hard%, changed last year from other years in his career and they all fit in line as do his ground ball, line drive, and fly ball rates. That shows that last year was likely a fluke compared to a start of a decline in his career. With 2019 being his last under team control in Chicago, expect his numbers to resemble the previous four years rather than 2018. In those four years he hit 25+ home runs, 100+ RBI, and a .290 average or better making him one of the most consistent first baseman in the bigs in that span.

Justin Bour

The Angels are hoping that he Bour signing brings added depth to their first base and DH roles on their roster as they are filled with an aging Albert Pujols and Shohei Ohtani , who’s still recovering from Tommy John surgery. Bour split last season between the Marlins and the Phillies and it wasn’t a great season from Bour, who had his worst slash line of his career in a full-season. After spending his whole career in the majors in the National League he will finally get the benefit of going to a team with a DH spot which may benefit him and his -1.9 career UZR and -0.8 UZR/150 marks. The problems for Bour, as was highlighted in the Old Faces, New Places piece, is that his last few seasons have been a mixed bag of results when you look at his contact rates and the K% and BB% meaning that if he doesn’t play all that much or put up big numbers, it could hurt him in the arbitration talks since he still has a year of arbitration awaiting him in 2020. A dream season of his would be to hit his 162-game pace numbers, not to mention the Angels would love to see that return on a cheap investment they made.

Justin Smoak

Smoak is playing under an eight-million-dollar team option in the 2019 season but prior to that he signed a one-year, $3.9-million deal in 2016 and then a two-year, $8.5-million deal from 2017-18 which included the option year they exercised this offseason to keep him as their starting first baseman. The first thing that is evident in the table above is the importance that playing time has made in his stat lines. The first two years of the table, he was a pinch-hitter/backup first baseman for Toronto after a disappointing time in Seattle for four years. The last two years, the contract that netted him this option year, he’s been the full-time starting first baseman and the numbers have followed in droves. He’s eclipsed 500 at bats both of those seasons, posted .350+ OBP, 25+ homers, 77+ runs, and a combined WAR of 5.3 in that span. Now it certainly doesn’t hurt that’s been playing in the AL East with their bandbox parks but it’s clear that, if he plays, he’s capable of doing damage with a bat. Now in analyzing what affect a contract year may or may not have on him it gets tricky because his last contract year he was a part-time player but expecting him to hit between what he did in 2017 and 2018 seems like a safe bet especially if some of the talented bats in the Blue Jays farm system come up to bolster the lineup.

Second Base

Brian Dozier

Dozier has become one of the premier offensive weapons at the keystone in the game and showed that with three-straight seasons of 28+ home runs, 12+ steals, 101+ RBI, and two of those seasons with 93+ runs. He did most of that damage inside the AL Central while putting up a .270/.350/.522 combined slash line between 2016 and 2017 over 1,232 at bats. That’s all well and good but 2018 rolled around and held with it a contract year for Dozier and boy did it not go well for him. He started the year in Minnesota before being traded to the Dodgers where things got worse for him. In 104 games with the Twins he slashed .227/.307/.405 with 16 home runs, 65 runs, 52 RBI, and eight steals and then in 47 games with the Dodgers in a pennant chase he slashed .182/.300/.350 with five HR, 20 RBI, 16 runs, and four steals. All told it was a marked downturn in stats from the previous three years and it was likely in part due to the looming free agency he experienced this offseason. The Nationals signed him to a one-year, nine-million-dollar deal early in the signing period to make up for the loss of Daniel Murphy who they shipped to the Cubs in August and weren’t re-signing. Nationals Park is the fairest hitting environment he’s played in for his home games in his career but there is that doubt of will he repeat 2018 or 2017 because of the contract year. One has to take that into consideration when drafting him this draft season.

Scooter Gennett

Gennett is finishing up his arbitration eligibility in 2019 with a one-year, $9.775-million deal in Cincinnati after they acquired him a couple of seasons ago and he’s done nothing but impress in that time. It’s been two stellar seasons from the second baseman in the Queens City with a combined slash line of .303/.350/.508 in 1,045 at bats while hitting 23+ homers, 92+ runs, 80+ RBI in each season. We all know that Great American Ballpark is a great hitter’s environment but the main difference between his last two years and the two year prior to that was getting playing time consistently as that didn’t really happen in Milwaukee. With the additions that the Reds have made to the lineup in the offseason with Matt Kemp , Yasiel Puig , and the impending arrival of Nick Senzel, Gennett’s stats should be able to hang where they are for the most part. His agent and he have expressed to the Reds their interest in staying with the Reds long-term on an extension, but so far they haven’t heard back. If he puts up another big year like the last two, which should be feasible, the price tag could get steep the soon-to-be 29-year-old second baseman.

Josh Harrison

Harrison is another guy that’s mentioned in the Old Faces, New Places piece given that he’s entering his first year in Detroit after playing the entirety of his career in Pittsburgh thus far. Harrison is on a one-year deal with the rebuilding Tigers and he will man second base for them after Ian Kinsler moved on after a trade to Boston last year. As lauded of a player as Harrison is on the defensive side of things, his bat has been quite up-and-down throughout his career and a perfect example is the four-year sample in the table above. Only twice in his eight-year career has he hit double-digit homers and those are also the only two seasons in which he’s gone over 60 runs with one of those happening in the last four years. The last time he was in a contract year, prior to the one-year deal he signed for 2018, he had one of his better seasons in 2017 with 16 home runs, 66 runs, 47 RBI, and 12 steals while slashing .272/.339/.432 in 128 games. Then injuries shortened his 2018 campaign, but he was on pace for 13 homers, 68 runs, 62 RBI, and five steals with a less than stellar slash line. The Tigers are simply looking for a stopgap solution at the keystone this year, but Harrison could find his offense again as the presumed leadoff hitter in Detroit.

Jonathan Schoop

Schoop is coming off a down season in 2018 which is why Minnesota was able to sign him so cheaply, one-year, $7.5-million deal, early in the offseason. He had a remarkable rise in Baltimore up through 2017 until his numbers and slash line cratered in 2018 as well as playing 30 fewer games than he did the previous two seasons. His career year came in 2017 with a .293/.338/.503 slash line, 32 homers, 105 runs, 92 RBI, and a steal in 160 games. The 2019 season will be the second baseman’s age 27 season and with a rebound year he could certainly entertain bigger offers than what he got on the open market this past offseason. Yes, he’s going to Minnesota but think of what Brian Dozier did in that ballpark for the last few years. There shouldn’t be a reason why Schoop can’t get back to a .265 average with 25-28 home runs and plenty of runs and RBI especially if Nelson Cruz , Miguel Sano , and Byron Buxton all hit like they’re capable of.

Third Base

Josh Donaldson

The now 33-year-old former catcher ended his 3.5-year stint in Toronto on a sour note last year including getting shipped to Cleveland after the trade deadline. Injuries really started to take their toll on the third baseman the last two seasons as he played a combined 165 games in that span with just 52 appearances in 2018. Even with the injury-shortened campaign in 2017 he still hit 33 home runs in 113 games with a slash of .270/.385/.559 that that was a down year for him given the previous two years in the Sky Dome that saw him average 39 home runs, 122 runs, 111 RBI, and six steals a year. For four-straight years from 2013-16 he played at least 155 games every year and three years he played 158, so if he can remain healthy this year in Atlanta there’s no reason to think that his numbers shouldn’t rebound either. The lineup around him is just as potent as the lineup was in Toronto at its best and generally getting off turf is good for a player’s overall ability to stay healthy. Donaldson will make $23 million for the 2019 season but he could be looking at a deal that pays him four times that depending on how 2019 at SunTrust Park goes for the veteran slugger.

Anthony Rendón

The last three years have really been a coming out party for the former Rice Owl as he’s upped his profile to one of the most-consistent hitters in the league and especially at third base. Just in the last two years alone, when he really started getting paid in arbitration, Rendon combined for a .305/.389/.534 slash line in 1,202 at bats, with 49 HR, 192 runs, 169 RBI, and nine steals in 283 games. That paces out to a 162-game pace of 28 long balls, 110 runs, 97 runs, and five steals from a guy that’s never made an All-Star Game in his six-year career. He signed a one-year, $18.8-million deal this offseason to avoid an arbitration hearing and following the season he’s slated to be an unrestricted free agent. Rendon has put up those numbers with a healthy Harper and Zimmerman surrounding him in the lineup and clearly part of that equation has changed this year with Harper now in Philadelphia. He will need to shoulder a bigger load of the offense along with the young Juan Soto and a hopefully healthy Ryan Zimmerman which along with the impending free agency might stress him more than we’re used to seeing. If Rendon can come close to what the last two years have brought, his potential contract figures could be large considering he is one of the best bats on the open market next Winter.

Jung Ho Kang

Kang’s odyssey in the last nearly two years has been well-documented, but to say it simply…don’t drink and drive. No there isn’t a typo in his chart with the missing 2017, he didn’t play that year or really any of last season either as he dealt with legal issues in South Korea, his home country. When he’s healthy and in Pittsburgh on a baseball diamond, he’s a pretty productive player at the third base position. The 229 games he played from 2015-2016 proved solid with 36 HR, 120 runs, 105 RBI, and eight steals with a solid .355 OBP. He will begin the year as a backup to Colin Moran who played well in Kang’s absence which will undoubtedly reduce Kang’s value both in a fantasy sense but also in a real world sense as it’s hard to prove what you’re worth if you aren’t on the field very much.

Shortstop

Xander Bogaerts

Bogaerts continues to be one of the premier bats at the shortstop position, which has become loaded with talent in the last few years. This upcoming season is his last year of arbitration and thus will be up for presumably a long-term deal as he’ll 26 nearly the entire year, until the playoffs that is. The 2018 year, even though he missed some time with an injury, was a career year for home runs, RBI, OBP, SLG, WAR, and wOBA in just 136 games played. That could be why he was paid $12,000,000 in his final year of arbitration this upcoming season. Bogaerts plays in a great lineup and in a good home park, his career numbers show benefits to playing at Fenway Park to be sure, but his bat can play anywhere. If he has another career-year in 2019, which is possible since he’s just getting into his prime years now, expect there to be a big market for him as he and the next gentleman in this section are the only two real weapons at shortstop that are on the market in 2019-2020.

Didi Gregorius

Since being traded for to be the replacement at short following the retirement of Derek Jeter, nearly all of his counting stats have improved every year even with playing fewer games every year. He’s been on a series of one-year deals for the last few years with his arbitration years coming up but that hasn’t slowed him from putting up gaudy stat lines. What has slowed him though are injuries, 2017 saw him play 136 games, down from 153 in 2016, while his season was cut short in 2018 due to a torn UCL and subsequent Tommy John surgery seeing him play just 134 games. Gregorius will be back at some point mid-season in 2019 but the pressure will be on to show that he’s fully recovered from the injury while amid a likely pennant run in the Bronx. While looking young and playing like he’s young at heart, the shortstop will be 30 heading into next year which could make some teams skittish of longer-term deals, also keep in mind the Yankees have options for shortstop aside from Didi for 2020.

Troy Tulowitzki

Tulo was unceremoniously cut loose from Toronto early in the offseason after not playing at all in the 2018 season while recovering from injuries that also shortened his 2017 season to just 66 games. The Yankees snatched him up quickly on a one-year, major-league minimum deal since the Blue Jays are still paying him the $38 million that’s left on the deal, they had with him. At 35 and having been on the disabled list 10 times in his 12-year career and coming off missing an entire season, he’s an unlikely guy to highlight in this piece. Well he’s going to get playing time to start the year with Gregorius still out of commission and the last two healthy seasons in Toronto were still good years. In 2015-2016, Tulo combined for a .267/.327/.442 slash in 978 at bats with a 162-game pace of 26 homers, 82 runs, 93 RBI, and a steal in 259 total games played. If, and it’s a big if, he can stay healthy and swing a solid bat, he could wind up getting another short-term offer after his year with the Yankees ends next offseason.

Outfield

 Marcell Ozuna

Ozuna was a big acquisition for the Cardinals prior to the 2018 season coming off of a career year in 2017 in Miami. While he did disappoint those hoping for a repeat of the 2017 campaign, he still put up a very good year in what was a down year as a whole for the Cardinals offense. It’s not uncommon for players who switch teams after playing their whole career with one organization to take some time to get used to things in the new city. The same was true for Ozuna who hit just .260 in the first two months of 2018 with three homers, 20 runs, and 23 RBI, then the calendar hit June and he took off hitting .290 with 20 home runs, 49 runs, and 65 RBI the rest of the way. Now he’s got impending free agency for the first time in his six-year career and a desire to show that he can be better in 2019 than 2018. He did get help in the lineup in a big way with the arrival of Paul Goldschmidt , who’s also in a contract year but not mentioned since he’s an elite bat, which should help Ozuna put up better numbers. Look for a rebound year from Ozuna in 2019.

Nicholas Castellanos

Castellanos is coming off of a year that saw him post his best career slash line in the majors and still put up a good amount of counting stats considering the lack of talent around him in Detroit presently. His season as a whole was actually better than his 162-game average as compiled by baseball-reference which isn’t surprising since last year was his Age-26 season and thus he’s entering his prime. Trade talk is surrounding him this offseason and will continue into the season until he is moved in order for Detroit to add more pieces to their middling farm system. That talk plus the pending free agency might force him to push for results in 2019, which can cause slumping performances in baseball. Generally he is a talented enough bat that the outside stuff shouldn’t cause him much of an issue however, the home park he plays in plus the lack of talent around him may play a bigger role in seeing some regression from Castellanos especially if the lack of BB%, increasing K%, increasing Pull%, increasing Swinging Strike %,  and decreasing contact % all continue into 2019.

Yasiel Puig

Puig has been a hot topic this offseason with his move to Cincinnati as he was involved in the multi-player deal to clear salary for the Dodgers. Most of the talk has centered around him being in a bandbox of a park and power potential he has especially as a member of a rebuilt Reds lineup that has a fair bit of potential. The question’s with Puig has always been around his attitude and playing style and whether or not he will stay locked in for a full season or whether or not he will start acting out like he did earlier in his career. The last two seasons have shown that when he is healthy and acting the right way, he possesses a tremendous amount of ability to put up very good stat lines with a combined .265/.338/.490 slash line in 904 at bats with 51 home runs, 132 runs, 137 RBI, and 30 steals in 277 games. That works out to a 30-77-80-18 year in 162 games, now you know why there’s the hype for the “Wild Horse” in Cincy this year. Puig will be 28 years old for the entirety of the 2019 season and that bodes well for potential suitors who are interested in still getting several productive years out of him when signing him.

Adam Eaton

There was hope when the Nationals traded for Eaton a couple of seasons ago that they were getting a key piece to their outfield solved when they need a centerfielder, the problem is he hasn’t been healthy enough to live up to the hope and promise. Though when he’s been on the field in D.C., the bat has played with a combined slash line of .300/.394/.422 with seven homers, 79 runs, 46 RBI, and 12 steals in 118 games. That puts his pace over 162 games, just in the last two years, at 10 HR, 108 R, 63 RBI, and 16 SB, basically right on his career 162-game average. Eaton is in a bit of a different situation than others on this list because he actually has two club options left on his original five-year, $23.5-million deal that he signed in 2015. He is still in a contract year though because the Nationals have a $1.5-million buyout they can exercise and not pick up the $9.5-million option for 2020 or the $10.5-million option in 2021. In order to earn that club option being picked up, he needs to stay healthy and keep producing at the rate that he was on pace to do the last two years. This will be his Age-30 season which could make staying healthy and producing a bit tougher but hitting at the top of a solid Washington lineup should invigorate him to putting up a solid year.

Avisail García

Garcia is perhaps the best example of a contract year in action in 2017. His 2017 season is so far above what he’s done in the rest of his career it acts as a prime example of what we’ve been getting at in this article. The White Sox paid him a handsome sum of $6.7 million for the 2018 season because of that performance but then he came back down to earth with a slash line that was 70-100 lower across the board and counting stats, outside of home runs, that decreased by about 35% as well though it was in 43 fewer games. Tampa Bay took a shot on him with a one-year, $3.5 million deal this offseason to add to their burgeoning outfield as a source of needed power in that lineup. Given his career slash line of .271/.321/.420 over 638 games and 2,303 at bats, getting back to anywhere near his 2017 line is unlikely but the counting stats could come close depending on how much playing time he gets with 16-20 homers, 55-65 runs, 55-65 RBI, and a couple of steals a reasonable projection.

Chris Owings

Owings got a name for himself by being a valuable utility man for Arizona by playing all over the field. That being said, he did exactly the opposite of what you want to do in a contract year in 2018. His slash line was the worst of his six-year MLB career, the home runs were tied for the worst in a “full season” for him, as were the runs, and his RBI were the worst. He also spent time in the minors after a bad start and more viable options on the roster than Owings. The Royals got him with a one-year, $3-million deal this offseason to be a bat off the bench for them as he’ll slot in behind Whit Merrifield at second and be a fourth outfielder for them as well. It’s plain to see why he only garnered a role like that since the only real consistent part of his game has been the steals year-after-year, but those can be gotten off the bench as Kansas City has had success with doing before. Owings is listed as an outfielder this year because that’s the only spot he actually qualifies at for 2019 having played 60 games there but not more than 15 anywhere else. The up-and-down utilityman will turn 28 in the middle of the season this year meaning that if he can actually find playing time, and put up a decent stat line, someone else might take a chance on him for more than a one-year deal next offseason.

Starting Pitcher

Madison Bumgarner

MadBum has slipped from the ranks of the elite arms in the last couple of seasons due to poor performances brought on by fluke injuries. He has started a combined 38 games in the last two seasons, four more than his last full season by itself in 2016. In those 240.2 innings, he’s seen his ERA climb from 2.74 to 3.32 and his K/9 rate fall from 10.0 to 8.2 to 7.6 as the reports of his reduced velocity continue to surface. Prior to the most recent downturn, Bumgarner had thrown six-straight 200-plus-inning seasons that also saw him climb from 201.1 in 2013 to 226.2 in 2016 not including the big workload he took on in the post-season; we all remember the World Series against the Royals. Surprisingly, perhaps to some, he’s still under 30 years old and won’t be 30 until August. There should be a lot of life left in his arm for a guy that’s as built as MadBum is, but injuries have cast doubt on that recently. Ultimately Bumgarner should have a bounce back year, assuming no nagging things crop up, given his, still, sub-.280 BABIP and posting a GB% of over 40% every year except for one (39.6%), plus the Giants are hoping for it too so he can be trade bait come the July deadline. If he does regain his footing this year and turns in a more-typical Bumgarner year, his value will be on the rise both in fantasy and on the open market next Winter.

Matt Harvey

Harvey is now on his third team in two years with a one-year deal from the Angels. It’s been a rough go of it over that span as he comes back from his Thoracic Outlet Syndrome diagnosis and procedure but there are signs of life in his arm still. Those 4.94 ERA and 4.57 FIP marks are a bit deceiving because of the relative success he had in Cincinnati last year after the trade where he posted a 4.50 ERA and 4.33 FIP. For the first time in four years his BAA was back down to a respectable level and his BB/9 were the lowest since his last healthy season in New York at 2.15 and there was an uptick in the K/9 rate as well. This spring, for what it’s worth, Harvey has looked pretty solid in his first few trips to the mound which could be telling that he’s feeling even better this year. It’s unlikely that he will ever get back to the ace-caliber pitcher that he once was, but if he improves on his 2018 season in 2019, a multi-year deal could be in his future next Winer.

Rick Porcello

Porcello’s first season in Boston was in 2015 but then he really took off in 2016 when he won the AL Cy Young award with a touch of controversy. Then the follow-up season was one of the worst of his career with the most losses, the third-worst ERA, second-worst FIP, third-worst BABIP, and third-worst WHIP of his 10-year career. A new season came around in 2018 and it was another good season from a wins perspective and his best K/9 of his career. That being said, the ERA and FIP weren’t as good as you’d expect for a 17-game winner. Porcello has been one of the most durable pitchers out as he’s started 31+ games seven times in his 10-year major-league career and topped 170 innings nine of 10 seasons. There will always be a place on a roster for a guy as durable as that even with him being in his Age-30 season in 2019. The problem for Porcello though is showing that he can be consistent with his seasons as the last four seasons show. No one is expecting a return to Cy Young form given his career ERA of 4.26 and career FIP of 4.02 but not having wild swings from year-to-year would be a start for the veteran righty.

Hyun-Jin Ryu

Ryu came on the scene impressively in both 2013 and 2014 and then injuries derailed his career for the better part of two years. In 2017 the Dodgers put him back in the starting rotation for 24 starts and it was moderately successful though certainly the 4.74 FIP and 1.37 WHIP left quite a bit to be desired in the long-run, but it was a start. In 2018 another injury-shortened season manifested as he was only on the mound for 82.1 innings and 15 starts (5.4 innings/start), but they were spectacular in their effectiveness. He had a career-high in K/9 as well as a career-low in BB/9 in addition to a career-best mark in WHIP and BABIP. Ryu struck out 27.5% of the batters he faced and walked just 4.6% giving him a 23% K-BB% which ranked 12^th among pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched last year. About to be 32 years old and still trying to stay on the bump for a full compliment of 30 starts, a feat he’s done just once, Ryu needs his health be there for him like his pitches are. If, and again it’s a big if, he can get 28-30 starts on the mound and pitch like he’s capable of pitching, a top-20 type, then a nice deal should be awaiting him next Winter, however if it’s another injury-plagued season, he may be given just a one-year pact.

Alex Wood

After breaking through with Atlanta in 2014 for his first full season of starting in the bigs, he was sent to LA at just 24 years of age and he continued to be one of the more intriguing pitchers to watch, especially in 2017. He stepped in for the injured Clayton Kershaw and more than held his own as he went 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA (3.32 FIP) over 152.1 innings and nearly K/IP for the lefty. In the last two seasons, Wood has started 52 games for the Dodgers with 304 innings pitched and compiled a 3.20 ERA. 3.42 FIP, 8.45 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, .229 BAA, and 50.9% GB%. That stat line impressive but the most important parts of the line are the 50.9% GB% and a career .76 HR/9 rate as he heads to Cincinnati for the last year of his team control to head up the Reds new look rotation. The southpaw should be able to keep the ball inside of Great American Ballpark and the other parks in that division well-enough to put up good numbers once again and with the new look offense, he could be in line for double-digit win upside. A 28-year-old lefty starter of his caliber won’t last long on the free agent market unless he stumbles in 2019.

Justin Verlander

Earlier it was mentioned that elite guys aren’t going to be on this list, yet here sits Verlander in this piece. This has more to do with age than anything else. The righty will pitch this season at age 36 which is starting to get up there for a pitcher, especially one who had to reinvent himself a bit a couple of years ago. It’s clear that he is still at the top of his game and looking at any ADP list for your upcoming drafts will tell you the same thing as he’s one of the top 5-6 pitchers going off the board, and why shouldn’t he be after three-straight 200+-inning seasons and his 2.52 ERA last year. That being said, teams are getting increasingly stingy with free agent signings who are in the mid-30s like Verlander is and getting those elusive four-five-year deals is getting harder and harder. If JV has another 200+ inning, 3.00 ERA, 1.05 WHIP season though in 2019, he could easily nab a five-year deal on the free agent market as one of the few elite arms on the market, assuming Houston doesn’t extend him during the season.

Relief Pitcher

Cody Allen

Allen was, for several years, a top-flight closer with four-straight seasons of 25+ saves and sub-3.00 ERA while in Cleveland. However, that all changed last year. Allen fell off a cliff, quite a steep one, in 2018 as his ERA ballooned to 4.70 from 2.94 in 2017, his FIP went up to 4.56 from 3.19, his WHIP jumped to 1.36 from 1.16, his K/9 fell to 10.7 from 12.3 and the BB/9 inflated to 4.4 from 2.8 all in the same amount of innings in both of those seasons. The Angels needed a closer and took a shot on Allen having a bounce back season. Alike, Allen took a shot on himself that the 2018 season was just a blip and not the start of a trend for him. There should be plenty of chances to post saves in Anaheim much like there was in Cleveland but if his ratios don’t come down and his control doesn’t get better, he may not stick in that role for long since they have Ty Buttrey waiting in the wings to take over.

Dellin Betances

The flame-throwing righty in the Bronx has been dominant out of the pen for the last five seasons as he’s posted a handful of saves each year and 100+ strikeouts while not pitching more than 90 innings in any of those seasons. While he does have 35 saves in the last four seasons, his main role is to be the setup man to Aroldis Chapman and strikeout as many guys as possible. Betances has been doing it for longer but has a Josh Hader type role and talent about him and is comparable to Andrew Miller as well though from the other side of the pitching rubber. For a long time, the Yankees wouldn’t include Betances in any trade talks and now we’ve seen why they didn’t want to let him go. Today is a bit different as they have a stacked bullpen and some key bats they will have to extend shortly as well, but don’t expect to see Betances leave the Bronx if the Yankees can do anything about it. It should be a lock for another 100+ strikeout campaign with very good ratios and plenty of fantasy value from those categories.

Greg Holland

Holland was a lockdown closer for the Royals for a three-year stretch and then the 2015 season happened in which his ERA shot up nearly 2.5 runs from the previous year and he ended up needing surgery by season’s end which forced him to miss the 2016 season. Colorado took a shot on him in 2017 and it worked out pretty well as he had third 40+ save season in four years and put up a reasonable 3.61 ERA while pitching a lot of games at Coors Field and still managing 11 K/9 in 57.1 innings. The 2018 season was a tale of two different years depending on which part of season you look at. He started in St. Louis and was an abject disaster in 25 innings putting up a 7.92 ERA, 4.56 FIP, 2.24 WHIP, 7.9 BB/9, and a dead even 22:22 K:BB ratio. After the Cardinals designated him for assignment, Washington took a shot and wow did it work in their favor. In the final 21.1 innings of the season in the Nation’s Capital, Holland posted a 0.84 ERA, 2.97 FIP, 0.89 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, and a 25:10 K:BB ratio. Now there is still some work needing to be done as that’s too many walks for a closer to give up and he was clearly very effected by the defense behind him based on the FIP numbers but either way it was enough to make Arizona want to take a chance on him. There is a closer battle down in Arizona as Archie Bradley , and he are the main two competitors but there’s also Yoan Lopez and Jimmy Sherfy looming further in the background as well. Holland is will have his Age-33 season in 2019 and if he can recapture what he had in D.C. or anywhere close to that he could be racking up the saves in the desert fairly soon.