The penultimate race of the year is upon us as the NASCAR schedule heads back to the desert for the second time this year and first time since way back in March. There are some similar storylines to this race as the first one here but also some major changes have happened to the track since then as well.
The basics of the track are that it’s a flat, one-mile layout that has one of the most interesting turns on the schedule known as the “dogleg” in what used to be Turn 2. The banking in the turns is between 10-11 degrees all the way around and the straightaways are tilted at three degrees with the straightaway between what used to be Turn 1 and the dogleg is banked at 10 degrees. Pit road was previously on the front stretch and went down into Turn 1 but now that has changed slightly.
If you haven’t caught on by now, there were changes made that track since the last time they raced there in March with the main difference being that the Start/Finish line has moved. It was previously on the front stretch but it has now moved to between previous Turn 1, now Turn 4, and the start of the dogleg portion of the track. This means they will be restarting in the middle of a turn and the first turn of the track will now be the dogleg which is an extra section of pavement that allows for dive-bomb moves and that may play a critical role at the end of the race if there is a late-race restart and a short-run to the checkered flag.
The track hasn’t seen double-digit cautions in a race since March of 2015 which is also the last race that the pole-sitter won and that was the first one since November 2010 that saw the pole sitter win. In all but one of the last six races there has been one driver lead 100+ laps and every one else splits the remaining 212 or fewer laps amongst themselves and only once in that time did the winner of the race lead the most laps as well. Despite being a 1-mile track, and a flat one at that, there are seven drivers in the field this week with +6 PD marks or better and another three in and around the 5.0 range.
Track Breakdown
Last Five Races at ISM Raceway
| Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Laps | |||
| Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Led |
| Kevin Harvick | 5 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 177 |
| Matt Kenseth | 4 | 8.8 | 10.5 | 16.5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 117 |
| Ryan Newman | 5 | 17.6 | 18.2 | 16.6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 29 |
| Joey Logano | 5 | 5.6 | 9.6 | 16.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 140 |
| Kyle Busch | 5 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 317 |
| Chase Elliott | 5 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 140 |
| Denny Hamlin | 5 | 7 | 8.6 | 11.8 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 230 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 5 | 14 | 12 | 14.6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Kyle Larson | 5 | 3.6 | 14.6 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 69 |
| Kurt Busch | 5 | 13 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| Erik Jones | 3 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 5 | 21.6 | 22.8 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Brad Keselowski | 5 | 16 | 11 | 15.8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| Aric Almirola | 5 | 22.6 | 18.8 | 13.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Ryan Blaney | 5 | 7 | 12.6 | 14.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| Daniel Suarez | 3 | 17.3 | 17 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Jamie McMurray | 5 | 9.2 | 12.4 | 14.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 5 | 13 | 15.2 | 22.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| Clint Bowyer | 5 | 24.2 | 19.6 | 17.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Austin Dillon | 5 | 15.6 | 16.2 | 19.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Alex Bowman | 2 | 2.5 | 9 | 9.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 194 |
| Paul Menard | 5 | 17.4 | 22.6 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Ty Dillon | 4 | 25 | 20.3 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| William Byron | 1 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 5 | 20.6 | 21.4 | 20.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Landon Cassill | 4 | 29 | 27.3 | 24.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 5 | 29 | 28 | 25.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Buescher | 5 | 30 | 30.2 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cody Ware | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| JJ Yeley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanner Berryhill | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ross Chastain | 1 | 36 | 28 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Regan Smith | 2 | 30 | 28.5 | 27.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael McDowell | 5 | 28.6 | 27.4 | 27.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bubba Wallace | 1 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Ragan | 5 | 27.2 | 28 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DJ Kennington | 3 | 36.7 | 33.3 | 30.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Timmy Hill | 2 | 37 | 34.5 | 32.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Whitt | 3 | 33.3 | 32 | 35.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fast | Top 15 | Laps | Avg. | High | Low | Pos | Laps Led | High to | Low to | |
| Driver | Laps | Rate | Comp. | Rating | Rating | Rating | Diff | Pts./Race | Avg Rating | Avg Rating |
| Kevin Harvick | 157 | 93% | 1575 | 115.4 | 140.4 | 97.9 | 9.20 | 8.85 | 25 | 17.5 |
| Matt Kenseth | 76 | 82% | 1139 | 97.6 | 130.4 | 62.2 | -7.70 | 7.31 | 32.8 | 35.4 |
| Ryan Newman | 57 | 52% | 1312 | 76.6 | 102.2 | 37.2 | 1.00 | 1.45 | 25.6 | 39.4 |
| Joey Logano | 43 | 80% | 1566 | 92.8 | 125.6 | 78.7 | -10.60 | 7.00 | 32.8 | 14.1 |
| Kyle Busch | 161 | 98% | 1575 | 117 | 137.8 | 97.7 | 5.20 | 15.85 | 20.8 | 19.3 |
| Chase Elliott | 133 | 98% | 1575 | 110.3 | 115.9 | 101 | 0.00 | 7.00 | 5.6 | 9.3 |
| Denny Hamlin | 81 | 83% | 1538 | 102.9 | 117.2 | 83.8 | -4.80 | 11.50 | 14.3 | 19.1 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 50 | 76% | 1509 | 93.6 | 115.5 | 66.8 | -0.60 | 0.15 | 21.9 | 26.8 |
| Kyle Larson | 75 | 56% | 1366 | 92.1 | 124.1 | 78.5 | -11.40 | 3.45 | 32 | 13.6 |
| Kurt Busch | 11 | 61% | 1573 | 82.6 | 105.3 | 65 | -0.40 | 0.35 | 22.7 | 17.6 |
| Erik Jones | 34 | 93% | 938 | 100.4 | 110.2 | 90.4 | 2.30 | 0.00 | 9.8 | 10 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 15 | 15% | 1420 | 65.4 | 80.9 | 54.8 | 2.60 | 0.00 | 15.5 | 10.6 |
| Brad Keselowski | 61 | 78% | 1569 | 90.8 | 119 | 68.9 | 0.20 | 0.60 | 28.2 | 21.9 |
| Aric Almirola | 1 | 35% | 1573 | 70.9 | 87.7 | 46.8 | 9.00 | 0.00 | 16.8 | 24.1 |
| Ryan Blaney | 3 | 70% | 1574 | 79.8 | 85.2 | 67.7 | -7.80 | 0.55 | 5.4 | 12.1 |
| Daniel Suarez | 0 | 41% | 938 | 75.8 | 84.2 | 69.6 | 6.30 | 0.00 | 8.4 | 6.2 |
| Jamie McMurray | 39 | 76% | 1573 | 85.7 | 98.7 | 70.2 | -5.60 | 0.00 | 13 | 15.5 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 80 | 66% | 1383 | 86.6 | 105.1 | 58.6 | -9.20 | 0.65 | 18.5 | 28 |
| Clint Bowyer | 29 | 50% | 1567 | 70.9 | 103.5 | 35.3 | 6.80 | 0.00 | 32.6 | 35.6 |
| Austin Dillon | 6 | 49% | 1539 | 74.4 | 92.1 | 65.9 | -3.80 | 0.00 | 17.7 | 8.5 |
| Alex Bowman | 59 | 76% | 636 | 106.2 | 138 | 74.4 | -7.00 | 24.25 | 31.8 | 31.8 |
| Paul Menard | 1 | 7% | 1243 | 60.8 | 73.4 | 45.8 | -6.60 | 0.00 | 12.6 | 15 |
| Ty Dillon | 1 | 14% | 1248 | 65.7 | 82.1 | 42.7 | 7.00 | 0.00 | 16.4 | 23 |
| William Byron | 6 | 68% | 312 | 82.2 | 82.2 | 82.2 | -1.00 | 3.75 | 0 | 0 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 1 | 9% | 1571 | 59.9 | 69.6 | 53 | -0.20 | 0.00 | 9.7 | 6.9 |
| Landon Cassill | 12 | 0% | 1254 | 48.4 | 54.2 | 43.2 | 4.70 | 0.00 | 5.8 | 5.2 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 0 | 0% | 1564 | 47.1 | 57.7 | 39.9 | 3.80 | 0.00 | 10.6 | 7.2 |
| Chris Buescher | 0 | 0% | 1495 | 41 | 46.5 | 37.2 | -1.00 | 0.05 | 5.5 | 3.8 |
| Cody Ware | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | |
| JJ Yeley | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tanner Berryhill | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ross Chastain | 0 | 7% | 310 | 39.2 | 39.2 | 39.2 | 9.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Regan Smith | 0 | 0% | 629 | 41.3 | 44.7 | 37.8 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 3.4 | 3.5 |
| Michael McDowell | 3 | 0% | 1557 | 47.3 | 57.1 | 38.5 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 9.8 | 8.8 |
| Bubba Wallace | 0 | 0% | 309 | 49.7 | 49.7 | 49.7 | -1.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
| David Ragan | 5 | 0% | 1444 | 45.2 | 51 | 34.8 | -1.80 | 0.00 | 5.8 | 10.4 |
| DJ Kennington | 0 | 0% | 932 | 34.3 | 40.8 | 28.8 | 6.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Timmy Hill | 0 | 0% | 613 | 28.9 | 29.2 | 28.5 | 4.50 | 0.00 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Cole Whitt | 0 | 0% | 750 | 35.1 | 37 | 33.7 | -2.00 | 0.00 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
Top-15 Drivers Over Last 10 Races at ISM Raceway
| Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Laps | |||
| Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Led |
| Kevin Harvick | 10 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 1102 |
| Joey Logano | 10 | 5.3 | 8 | 11.1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 296 |
| Ryan Newman | 10 | 16.7 | 14.9 | 12.5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 66 |
| Matt Kenseth | 8 | 9.6 | 10.9 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 117 |
| Kyle Busch | 9 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 318 |
| Kurt Busch | 10 | 10.3 | 11.9 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Denny Hamlin | 10 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 14.2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 272 |
| Brad Keselowski | 10 | 11.9 | 8.9 | 11.2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 98 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 10 | 14.1 | 12.2 | 13.6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 3 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 10 | 10.6 | 13 | 17.5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 58 |
| Chase Elliott | 5 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 140 |
| Kyle Larson | 9 | 5.8 | 13.7 | 15.4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 69 |
| Jamie McMurray | 10 | 11.9 | 12.7 | 13.3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 2 |
| Erik Jones | 4 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 10 | 20.7 | 22.3 | 19.5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Fast | Top 15 | Laps | Avg. | High | Low | Pos. | Laps Led | Rating | |
| Driver | Laps | Rate | Comp. | Rating | Rating | Rating | Diff. | Pts/Race | Range |
| Kevin Harvick | 593 | 96% | 3042 | 131.2 | 150 | 97.9 | 7.40 | 27.55 | 52.1 |
| Joey Logano | 137 | 84% | 3033 | 103.4 | 125.6 | 78.7 | -5.80 | 7.40 | 46.9 |
| Ryan Newman | 80 | 61% | 2779 | 85.7 | 110.4 | 37.2 | 4.20 | 1.65 | 73.2 |
| Matt Kenseth | 84 | 80% | 2386 | 95 | 130.4 | 62.2 | -5.40 | 3.66 | 68.2 |
| Kyle Busch | 184 | 94% | 2726 | 107.8 | 137.8 | 76.2 | -0.10 | 8.83 | 61.6 |
| Kurt Busch | 78 | 73% | 3020 | 91.6 | 118.1 | 65 | -2.70 | 0.18 | 53.1 |
| Denny Hamlin | 95 | 67% | 2878 | 90.7 | 117.2 | 63.6 | -5.40 | 6.80 | 53.6 |
| Brad Keselowski | 169 | 87% | 3036 | 100.8 | 122.4 | 68.9 | 0.70 | 2.45 | 53.5 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 65 | 73% | 2975 | 92.1 | 115.5 | 66.4 | 0.50 | 0.08 | 49.1 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 174 | 70% | 3039 | 93.2 | 121.9 | 58.6 | -6.90 | 1.45 | 63.3 |
| Chase Elliott | 133 | 98% | 1575 | 110.3 | 115.9 | 101 | 0.00 | 7.00 | 14.9 |
| Kyle Larson | 77 | 61% | 2520 | 90.4 | 124.1 | 74.7 | -9.60 | 1.92 | 49.4 |
| Jamie McMurray | 60 | 73% | 1145 | 87.7 | 112.1 | 70.2 | -1.40 | 0.05 | 41.9 |
| Erik Jones | 35 | 92% | 1156 | 96.1 | 110.2 | 83.1 | -1.20 | 0.00 | 27.1 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 19 | 14% | 2862 | 66.5 | 80.9 | 54.8 | 1.20 | 0.00 | 26.1 |
Top-15 Drivers Over Last 21 Races at Similar Tracks
| Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Laps | |||
| Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Led |
| Kevin Harvick | 21 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 5 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 961 |
| Kyle Busch | 20 | 9 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 1118 |
| Matt Kenseth | 18 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 13.7 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 901 |
| Joey Logano | 21 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 17 | 19 | 329 |
| Denny Hamlin | 21 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 18 | 19 | 579 |
| Kyle Larson | 21 | 9.9 | 12.5 | 12.1 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 18 | 144 |
| Ryan Newman | 21 | 16.7 | 15.8 | 15.2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 17 | 58 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 21 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 11.4 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 17 | 19 | 1274 |
| Brad Keselowski | 21 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 10.7 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 19 | 367 |
| Chase Elliott | 16 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 11.2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 14 | 198 |
| Kurt Busch | 21 | 7.7 | 10.7 | 12.5 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 257 |
| Aric Almirola | 21 | 22.4 | 18.8 | 15.9 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 16 | 43 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 21 | 11.2 | 12.4 | 12.6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 | 18 | 102 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 21 | 18.4 | 19.9 | 18.6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 13 |
| Jamie McMurray | 21 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 14.4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 1 |
| Fast | Top 15 | Laps | Avg. | High | Low | Pos | Laps Led | Rating | |
| Driver | Laps | Rate | Comp. | Rating | Rating | Rating | Diff. | Pts./Race | Range |
| Kevin Harvick | 751 | 93% | 6869 | 113.9 | 150 | 58.9 | 2.40 | 11.44 | 91.1 |
| Kyle Busch | 653 | 95% | 6673 | 116.1 | 149.2 | 73.7 | 2.70 | 13.98 | 75.5 |
| Matt Kenseth | 525 | 80% | 5743 | 105.2 | 149.7 | 62.2 | -4.40 | 12.51 | 87.5 |
| Joey Logano | 180 | 79% | 6981 | 97.5 | 125.6 | 61.3 | -0.80 | 3.92 | 64.3 |
| Denny Hamlin | 393 | 81% | 6890 | 101.5 | 137.8 | 63.7 | -1.40 | 6.89 | 74.1 |
| Kyle Larson | 214 | 69% | 6811 | 92.4 | 125.8 | 63.7 | -2.20 | 1.71 | 62.1 |
| Ryan Newman | 86 | 56% | 6716 | 79.4 | 110.4 | 37.2 | 1.50 | 0.69 | 73.2 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 559 | 83% | 6950 | 105.9 | 134.9 | 54.6 | -2.10 | 15.17 | 80.3 |
| Brad Keselowski | 463 | 88% | 7009 | 100.6 | 133.1 | 67.2 | 1.60 | 4.37 | 65.9 |
| Chase Elliott | 208 | 84% | 5484 | 97 | 116.3 | 64.8 | 0.40 | 3.09 | 51.5 |
| Kurt Busch | 205 | 79% | 6865 | 94.2 | 124.6 | 52.8 | -4.80 | 3.06 | 71.8 |
| Aric Almirola | 114 | 34% | 6753 | 74.2 | 111.2 | 36.7 | 6.50 | 0.51 | 74.5 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 180 | 73% | 6830 | 91.6 | 116.5 | 58.6 | -1.40 | 1.21 | 57.9 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 111 | 25% | 6836 | 70.7 | 88.6 | 54.8 | -0.20 | 0.15 | 33.8 |
| Jamie McMurray | 83 | 67% | 5115 | 83.9 | 112.1 | 59 | -1.90 | 0.01 | 53.1 |
Momentum
| Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Pos | Avg. | |||
| Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Diff. | Rating |
| Chase Elliott | 5 | 12.4 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3.2 | 100.8 |
| Joey Logano | 5 | 9 | 4.4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 121 |
| Aric Almirola | 5 | 5.4 | 8 | 8.6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -3.2 | 103.3 |
| Kevin Harvick | 5 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 11.4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -7 | 120 |
| Erik Jones | 5 | 14 | 14.6 | 9.2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.8 | 88.6 |
| Denny Hamlin | 5 | 8.6 | 14.2 | 10.4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -1.8 | 87.6 |
| Kyle Busch | 5 | 5.6 | 9.8 | 11.4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -5.8 | 99.5 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 5 | 14.4 | 12.2 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3.4 | 93 |
| Kyle Larson | 5 | 20.4 | 15.4 | 13.6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 6.8 | 85.1 |
| Kurt Busch | 5 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -3.6 | 105.8 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 5 | 16.6 | 18.4 | 12.4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4.2 | 78.3 |
| Brad Keselowski | 5 | 7.8 | 9 | 12.8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 99.7 |
| Ryan Blaney | 5 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 13.8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6.6 | 99 |
| Clint Bowyer | 5 | 5 | 11.6 | 19.4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -14.4 | 89.2 |
| Austin Dillon | 5 | 21.8 | 17.2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6.8 | 78.1 |
Points Changes at ISM Raceway
DraftKings
| 17 Race | Season | DK Pts +/- | |
| Driver | Total | Avg DK Pts. | Season AVG |
| Matt Kenseth | 92 | 24.17 | 67.8 |
| Jamie McMurray | 53 | 23.19 | 29.8 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 55.5 | 25.79 | 29.7 |
| Ty Dillon | 51.5 | 23.65 | 27.9 |
| Erik Jones | 57.5 | 31.89 | 25.6 |
| Chase Elliott | 60.5 | 38.66 | 21.8 |
| Denny Hamlin | 49.75 | 37.65 | 12.1 |
| Ryan Newman | 37.5 | 27.11 | 10.4 |
| Aric Almirola | 48.5 | 38.79 | 9.7 |
| Michael McDowell | 29.5 | 20.61 | 8.9 |
| Landon Cassill | 28 | 19.25 | 8.8 |
| Austin Dillon | 37 | 29.54 | 7.5 |
| Paul Menard | 33 | 26.71 | 6.3 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 55 | 49.07 | 5.9 |
| DJ Kennington | 29 | 25.65 | 3.4 |
| Clint Bowyer | 43 | 40.5 | 2.5 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 20 | 20.32 | -0.3 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 21 | 25.75 | -4.8 |
| Brad Keselowski | 28 | 37.91 | -9.9 |
| Daniel Suarez | 18 | 29.93 | -11.9 |
| Joey Logano | 29 | 44.09 | -15.1 |
| Cole Whitt | 6 | 23.91 | -17.9 |
| Kevin Harvick | 47.5 | 66.31 | -18.8 |
| David Ragan | 4 | 22.88 | -18.9 |
| Kyle Busch | 39.5 | 60 | -20.5 |
| Ryan Blaney | 14.25 | 35.36 | -21.1 |
| Kurt Busch | 17 | 39.61 | -22.6 |
| Chris Buescher | 1 | 25.64 | -24.6 |
| Jimmie Johnson | -21 | 31.61 | -52.6 |
| Kyle Larson | -18.5 | 42.93 | -61.4 |
| AVG. +/- | 19.3 |
FanDuel
| 17 Race | 18 Season | FD Pts +/- | |
| Driver | Total | Avg FD Pts. | Season AVG |
| Matt Kenseth | 83.4 | 44.89 | 38.51 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 73.7 | 47.12 | 26.58 |
| Ty Dillon | 70.2 | 44.66 | 25.54 |
| Jamie McMurray | 69.7 | 46.72 | 22.98 |
| Chase Elliott | 75.6 | 55.60 | 20.00 |
| Erik Jones | 71.7 | 52.70 | 19.00 |
| Aric Almirola | 69.7 | 55.42 | 14.28 |
| Michael McDowell | 52.9 | 39.78 | 13.12 |
| Paul Menard | 59.2 | 46.66 | 12.54 |
| Landon Cassill | 51.9 | 39.59 | 12.31 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 70.2 | 57.98 | 12.22 |
| Austin Dillon | 61.7 | 50.38 | 11.32 |
| Clint Bowyer | 62.7 | 55.93 | 6.77 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 46.1 | 40.85 | 5.25 |
| Kevin Harvick | 67.7 | 63.44 | 4.26 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 48.9 | 45.05 | 3.85 |
| Brad Keselowski | 56.2 | 52.98 | 3.22 |
| Kyle Busch | 65.7 | 62.70 | 3.00 |
| Ryan Newman | 51.1 | 49.17 | 1.93 |
| Daniel Suarez | 50.2 | 49.30 | 0.90 |
| Joey Logano | 58.7 | 60.08 | -1.38 |
| Ryan Blaney | 48.3 | 51.91 | -3.61 |
| Kurt Busch | 48 | 55.83 | -7.83 |
| David Ragan | 34.6 | 45.46 | -10.86 |
| Denny Hamlin | 36.3 | 55.10 | -18.80 |
| Chris Buescher | 25.7 | 46.48 | -20.78 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 3.3 | 50.36 | -47.06 |
| Kyle Larson | -5.9 | 56.47 | -62.37 |
| AVG. +/- | 15.37 |
Top-10 and Bottom-10 Value Drivers
DraftKings
| Rank | Driver | Value | Rank | Driver | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Harvick | 5.39 | 39 | Tanner Berryhill | 0.00 |
| 2 | Kyle Busch | 5.17 | 38 | Cody Ware | 1.81 |
| 3 | D.J. Kennington | 5.13 | 37 | Timmy Hill | 2.41 |
| 4 | Aric Almirola | 4.79 | 36 | William Byron | 3.07 |
| 5 | Regan Smith | 4.63 | 35 | Jamie McMurray | 3.09 |
| 6 | Joey Logano | 4.59 | 34 | Bubba Wallace | 3.28 |
| 7 | Kurt Busch | 4.55 | 33 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 3.39 |
| 8 | Clint Bowyer | 4.55 | 32 | JJ Yeley | 3.41 |
| 9 | Cole Whitt | 4.51 | 31 | Matt Kenseth | 3.50 |
| 10 | Martin Truex Jr | 4.46 | 30 | Michael McDowell | 3.55 |
FanDuel
| Rank | Driver | Value | Rank | Driver | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | D.J. Kennington | 11.52 | 37 | Chase Elliott | 4.28 |
| 2 | David Ragan | 11.36 | 36 | Kevin Harvick | 4.38 |
| 3 | Cole Whitt | 10.73 | 35 | Martin Truex Jr. | 4.64 |
| 4 | J.J. Yeley | 9.91 | 34 | Kyle Busch | 4.64 |
| 5 | Landon Cassill | 9.90 | 33 | Brad Keselowski | 4.73 |
| 6 | Ross Chastain | 9.88 | 32 | Denny Hamlin | 4.83 |
| 7 | Bubba Wallace | 9.20 | 31 | Kyle Larson | 4.87 |
| 8 | Regan Smith | 8.71 | 30 | Joey Logano | 5.01 |
| 9 | Michael McDowell | 7.96 | 29 | Ryan Blaney | 5.09 |
| 10 | Matt DiBenedetto | 7.43 | 28 | Kurt Busch | 5.12 |
Drivers To Watch This Week
Kevin Harvick - Ah Mr. Harvick. The man has been the talk of the week thus far following his L1 penalty assessed after his “win” at Texas last week and now after losing that win and 40 points in the standings he is just three points to the good in this final race before the championship. The good news for him is that he was penalized following the Las Vegas race early this year and then won the Phoenix race the following week and he has flat out dominated here in a fashion that reaches new heights. In the last five races he’s got two wins, four top-fives, and five top-10s with an average finish of 3.4 and 177 laps led. However it’s when you see the last 10 races and his six wins and nine top-fives and 2.3 average finish and 1,102 laps led and 593 fastest laps that you realize just how great he’s been. He’s a must play everywhere.
Kyle Busch - Busch has been good here too in the last five and 10 races, just not to Harvick’s level. He has four top-fives and five top-10s with 328 laps led (the most in the field) in the last five with five top-fives and eight top-10s and 318 laps led in the last 10, all second in the field to Harvick. His average finish of 3.6 recently and 8.0 in the last 10 are both also second to Harvick’s marks as are his average driver ratings of 117 and 107.8 in those same spans. Busch is $900 cheaper on DraftKings and $1,000 less on FanDuel so there is a nice discount although both are still the top-two value guys on DraftKings anyway.
Chase Elliott - Elliott has been one of if not the hottest driver in the last several races this season and comes into Phoenix being 17 point below the cutoff line to make the championship race next week at Homestead-Miami. That isn’t a big enough margin to need a win this week but he certainly needs a very strong showing in getting stage points and a great finish at race’s end to have a shot of kicking Harvick out of the last spot. Chase has shown well in his career here with two top-fives and four top-10s in the last five races and 140 laps led and 133 fastest laps. I like his price a lot more on DK than FD this week as he’s the third-most expensive guy at $13,000.
Alex Bowman - This is Bowman’s home track as he’s from Arizona and in one of his first races filling in for Dale Earnhardt Jr. back in 2016, Bowman showed why he is sometimes known as Bowman the Showman. He led 194 laps in that race and it was his one top-10 finish here in his two Cup series races. His other finish is inside the top-15 as well and in the Xfinity series he has six career races with four top-20s. He clearly isn’t in the playoff picture any longer but it’s still a chance for him to race in front of his home town friends and family and so for $7,200 on DK he’s worth a solid look. His price on FD is a bit higher than I like at $9,100 this week.
Daniel Suarez - News came out this week that Martin Truex Jr. will be moving to the 19-car next year as his current race team is folding in two weeks. That means that Suarez is currently without a ride for next year and may not get one in the Cup series as he hasn’t really shown all that well despite being in top-notch equipment for his three-year stretch at JGR. Phoenix however has been a good track for him in both Cup and Xfinity series alike in six total races (three in each series) he has two top-fives and four top-10s in that span with an average finish of 13.3. There aren’t any laps led or fastest laps there but solid finishes consistently is what Suarez has been lacking over his Cup career. This week could be different.