UPDATES ARE IN RED
It’s been a variety of tracks so far in the playoffs with short, 1-mile, 1.5-mile, road, and restrictor plates all run un so far and now this week brings the original short track with the second trip to Martinsville this year.
It is the only track to be run on each year since the start of NASCAR in 1947 and it has stayed in the same .5-mile layout since it was built. Known as “The Paperclip” because it looks like, the .526-mile circuit is pretty challenging to pass on under normal green flag conditions however with there being an average of 12.2 cautions per race in each of the last 10 trips to the Southern Virginia track that gives plenty of chances for the running order to get shuffled pretty decently, as the eight drivers with a +6 PD mark in the last five will show you.
The flatness of the track, just 12 degrees of banking in the corners, makes it generally a one groove or 1.5 groove track for most of the way around which is the main reason it’s so hard to pass, but the other reason is that the laps just get run through so fast that running into lap track complicates things massively here. If you take a listen to the NASCAR podcast we (Dan Malin and I) put out this week it will give you some more interesting tidbits about the track.
Scoring will be high this week as with 500 laps for the scheduled race, there are 375 bonus points for laps led and fastest laps in DraftKings and there are 300 bonus points between laps led and laps completed on FanDuel all of which should put a winning score well into 400 range on DK and FD alike.
Playbook
Kyle Busch | DK: $11,900 | FD: $14,000 | Starting: P1 | Risk: Low | Upside: High |
Busch is the prohibitive favorite this weekend. He’s not finished worse than fifth in the last five races here, including two wins and two runner-ups. He’s led by far the most laps at 837 which is more than 3x the next closest driver. His 344 fastest laps and 133 average rating are also the best. Busch has won five of the last eight short track races as well. Should I go on? Oh yeah he’s been the fastest car at practice and at qualifying as he’s on the pole too. The salary is not prohibitive at all on either site and he’s actually $600 less than Harvick on DK. He’s a must play in all formats. | |||||
Martin Truex Jr. | DK: $10,700 | FD: $11,400 | Starting: P33 | Risk: Low | Upside: High |
The biggest knock on MTJ is that he hasn’t won on a short track in his career. In fact he has the most career wins in the Cup series without a short track win at 19. That doesn’t mean he’s bad on them though. In the last five Martinsville races he has two top-fives and three top-10s with an average finish of 9.4 a respectable 193 laps led and 108 fastest laps. He has been on the pole here as well back in 2016. He had the sixth and seventh best lap average and 10-lap average in the final practice and he ran the fourth most laps at 77 and in the first practice he had the best 10-lap average and the third best lap average. He’s got a safe floor with great upside after failing pre-race/post-qualifying inspection and having his qualifying time disallowed. He will start P33 and should be able to move up back into the top-10 by race end. He is a second must-play this week. | |||||
Brad Keselowski | DK: $10,200 | FD: $13,500 | Starting: P8 | Risk: Low | Upside: Medium |
If you listened to the podcast this week you would’ve heard me point out Keselowski as a guy that isn’t in the playoffs as a guy that could sneak into victory lane this week. His record here is second only to Kyle Busch in the last five races with a win, four top-fives, five top-10s, 225 laps led, and 334 fastest laps. His average finish of 4.4 is second only to Busch’s 2.2 mark as well. In the first and second practices Keselowski had very similar 10-lap averages to Busch as well and wound up putting in the second best 10-lap average in the final session. He makes a nice pairing with Kyle and gives a discount on DK compared to MTJ. | |||||
Clint Bowyer | DK: $9,800 | FD: $11,200 | Starting: P2 | Risk: Low | Upside: Medium |
Bowyer won this race back in March after it was delayed a day for snow. In that race he started P9 and led 215 laps to notch his first win of the season. This week he will start better than that as he’s on the outside pole after running inside the top-five in practice in the long-run speed measures. He had the third-best 10-lap average in both practices and the fastest overall lap average in the final practice as well. The 14-car does have three top-10s in the last five so it’s not just the March race that gets him here. Bowyer could challenge Busch for most of the day and lead a good chunk of laps as well. | |||||
Chase Elliott | DK: $9,200 | FD: $11,700 | Starting: P21 | Risk: Medium | Upside: Medium |
Elliott was a guy that I mentioned in the podcast as well as being maybe a sneaky guy to contend this week. He was leading this race last October with a handful of laps left before Denny Hamlin wrecked him in the corner. In the five races here he’s run, he has a top-five and two top-10s with 143 laps run out front. Not a bad little résumé at all. This week however, after we recorded the podcast, he didn’t exactly run the best 10-lap averages in the field as they were 17th and 19th respectively but his short-run speed puts in him 16th and 2nd in those same practices. If he can get long run speed, he has the ability to move up in the field, but if not it might be a longer day for the 9-car. | |||||
Kurt Busch | DK: $9,000 | FD: $10,400 | Starting: P7 | Risk: Medium | Upside: Medium |
The older Busch brother isn’t nearly as good here as his younger sibling with just two top-15s in the last five races. However he has been pretty steady the last several races this season and has shown pretty solid speed this week. He ran the 10th and 12th best 10-lap averages at practice along with the 2nd and 13th best overall lap averages before qualifying P7 for Sunday’s race. He won’t be flashy but he can get you a solid finish and that’s what Kurt does and has all season. | |||||
Ryan Blaney | DK: $8,900 | FD: $10,200 | Starting: P4 | Risk: Medium | Upside: Low |
Blaney has a top-five, two top-10s, and 145 laps led here in the past five trips to the ‘Clip. That success started as a driver for Wood Brothers Racing, who are based near the track, and has continued as a driver for Penske. Blaney ran the sixth-best 10-lap average in the final practice and the same mark for overall lap average in the first session. His P4 starting spot is a little higher than I wanted to see as a guy who should be able to bring in a finish in or near the top-five but that’s about it as laps led may not be in his future this week. | |||||
Erik Jones | DK: $8,700 | FD: $9,700 | Starting: P24 | Risk: Medium | Upside: High |
Jones has only had one top-15 and two top-20s in his three races at the short track and not much else to write home about. He is in the playbook this week specifically because of his qualifying spot and his speed he showed at practice. That Jones Boy, as he’s taken on, ran P7 and P10 in the practices in 10-lap averages and ran P9 and P7 in the single-lap speeds before qualifying in the mid-20s. The rest of his teammates clearly have speed this week as the other three cars qualified in the top-nine spots. He is in a nice cash game spot for an upper-mid-tier price option. | |||||
Denny Hamlin | DK: $8,500 | FD: $12,200 | Starting: P3 | Risk: Medium | Upside: Medium |
Denny is way higher on salary list on FD then on DK and that must be because of his five career wins at one of his home tracks, Richmond being the main one. Hamlin has been so-so here over the last five races with one top-five, two top-10s, and three top-15s with 190 laps led. He has run inside the top-10 in pretty much all speed metrics this weekend including short and long-run metrics but the best he placed was 4th in both 10-lap average measures. The P3 starting spot puts him in a bind value-wise unless he goes off strategy with the pit stops and winds up leading a bunch of laps before other guys get back to the front. He is a better value play on DK thad FD as he only needs 45 points to return 5x value on DK versus 65 points on FD for the same value. | |||||
Aric Almirola | DK: $8,300 | FD: $10,000 | Starting: P5 | Risk: Medium | Upside: Low |
Almirola is another guy that’s on here because of his roll this season and the speed the SHR team has as a whole right now. In the last five he has two top-15s and four top-20s with an average finish of P21 which is seven spots further back than where he starts. But better equipment has really upped his game this year and he’s run inside the top-10 in speed most of the practice time including overall lap average, 10-lap average, and one of two single-lap speeds. That being said he is like a few others that qualified this highly in that I don’t see a ton of laps led for the 10-car though he does have a few teammates up there to help him out, but at this point in the season, teammates are still just other drivers to race against. | |||||
Alex Bowman | DK: $7,900 | FD: $8,600 | Starting: P16 | Risk: Medium | Upside: Medium |
Bowman has one race here in the last five in a Cup car but he did secure a seventh-place finish in that race in March after starting P16. He and the team made some pretty good improvements on the car between first and final practice because he ranked second in overall lap average over 54 laps and P9 in 10-lap average in that Happy Hour session which puts him in a similar spot to the March race. At a mid-tier price on both sites, his upside is pretty good from a PD standpoint in both formats. | |||||
Paul Menard | DK: $7,700 | FD: $7,100 | Starting: P39 | Risk: Low | Upside: High |
Menard is a guy that come into play later in the day on Saturday after his practice speeds became evident and his history supports his runs this week so far. In the last five trips he’s got a top-10, two top-15s, and four top-20s and now drivers for the Wood Brothers who always perform well here, their home track. Menard ran P12 in the first practice single-lap speeds and P25 in that same metric in the second practice while running P23 and P24 10-lap averages in both session. He starts P39 after a botched qualifying run and thus has tons of upside and nearly no risk. Menard is a great cash game option but he will be highly-owned on both sites for his PD upside. | |||||
Austin Dillon | DK: $7,400 | FD: $8,000 | Starting: P28 | Risk: Low | Upside: Medium |
A quick glance at the Track Breakdown data and you realize that Dillon has a been top-six driver here in the last five races with two top-five and two top-10s plus a remarkable +9.8 PD mark in that span. This week he has shown top-20 speed in single-lap and long-run breakdowns and then went out and qualified 28th. His ability to get through the crowd here in previous races doesn’t give me any pause that he’s starting where he is, in fact it’s a bonus that few drivers have. His price is a bit better on DK than FD but still very workable on both sites with nice upside to it. | |||||
Ryan Newman | DK: $7,100 | FD: $9,000 | Starting: P18 | Risk: Medium | Upside: Medium |
You may have forgotten that Newman has been on the track this season as he’s mostly been riding around most weeks except for those few that he makes the playbook for…and this is one of those weeks. In the last five runs here he has two top-10s and three top-15s with an average finish of 13.4. That’s a solid history for a guy that doesn’t break the bank, especially on DraftKings. He has spent practice running between ninth and 14th in the 10-lap and overall lap averages and running P13 and P1 in the two practices respectively in single-lap speed. That gives nice PD upside in the mid-tier for either lineup format. | |||||
Matt Kenseth | DK: $6,900 | FD: $7,500 | Starting: P27 | Risk: Medium | Upside: Medium |
Kenseth is back this week after a few weeks off from the 6-car. His time at JGR was fruitful at this track with three top-10s in the last four races including a top-five and 221 laps led. Now I don’t expect those stats to be added to this week, however moving up through the field is certainly possible after running the P20 10-lap average in the first practice. The Roush equipment this year hasn’t been great but a talented driver can still improve his P27 starting spot during the race. | |||||
AJ Allmendinger | DK: $6,200 | FD: $7,700 | Starting: P17 | Risk: Low | Upside: Medium |
Allmendinger has been a great driver at this track in recent history with four top-10s in the last five races here and a 13.2 average finish in that span. He started farther back than this in March and finished inside the top-10 then as well so the P17 doesn’t scare me off especially when he run P10 and P5 single-lap speeds and P14 10-lap average in the final practice. Allmendinger’s ability to put together shifting and braking patterns come into play this week and thus give him better upside than you might think with how often he’s played on the long fast tracks. | |||||
Chris Buescher | DK: $5,900 | FD: $6,400 | Starting: P15 | Risk: Medium | Upside: Low |
Buescher was originally on the playbook because of his +6.8 PD mark and his cheap price tag on both sites. However he went out and qualified P15 which reduces his upside even at that price tag. That being said, he has shown the speed this weekend to sick in that spot so that isn’t bad to get a top-15 finish for a sub-$6K and sub-$7K guy. To me he is a budget-saving flier this week simply due to the starting spot and chance that he could in fact slip some and reduce the return. | |||||
Ty Dillon | DK: $5,800 | FD: $6,200 | Starting: P26 | Risk: Medium | Upside: Medium |
Ty is a cheap option with ability to move up in the past few races. He ran 10-lap and single-lap speeds pretty close to where he qualified except for during the final practice where he cracked the top-10 in single-lap speeds. No he likely tops out as a just inside top-20 finisher if everything goes his way but at this price point that’s better than most offer that are behind him. | |||||
Bubba Wallace | DK: $5,700 | FD: $5,500 | Starting: P32 | Risk: Medium | Upside: Medium |
The only real option cheaper than Dillon that offers some PD upside is Wallace. Now he will be in the back after crashing his car during the qualifying effort and so that stings a touch, but the speed he showed puts him in between 20th-25th which helps. Also not to mention that his boss, the one and only Richard Petty, is the winningest driver ever at this track with 15 wins to his credit. Bubba also does have a Truck series win here previously. | |||||