This week brings with it the next installment of the most unpredictable race of the season as it is time for the fourth and final restrictor plate race of the year. Aside from unpredictable being perhaps the most used word of the week, pack-racing and side drafting are a close second. It’s just what comes with a race at Talladega or Daytona.
‘Dega, as it’s affectionately known, is the longest, fastest, most-steeply banked track on the schedule and has been since its inception in the late-1960s. At 2.66 miles per lap it’s .16 miles longer than Daytona and Indy and Pocono and the banking of 33 degrees is a few degrees more than at Daytona as well. These distances and banking allow the cars to regularly top 205 mph going into Turn 1 and that’s even with the restrictor plates in the cars. In fact there were adjustments to the size of the holes in the plates after a scary airborne crash at practice the last time the Cup series came to the Alabama track in April.
In simplest terms, the restrictor plate is a metal plate placed on top of the engine that has holes of a certain diameter punched in it that restricts the airflow and hence horsepower and hence speed of the cars on the track. This plate has some other side effects with the main one being that it creates pack racing because all of the cars for a change are all going roughly the same speed. Because they are going the same speed it’s also hard to pass cleanly and making one mistake can result in “The Big One” which can take out more than half the field from time-to-time. As Joey Logano put it last week “there’s a 50 percent chance I win, there’s a 50 percent chance I wreck” and that’s from a guy that’s won three of the last 10 races here.
Overall because of the size of the track, there are not that many laps run in a standard length race, though half of the last four have gone to overtime. There are just 188 scheduled laps for Sunday’s 500-miler meaning it reduces the bonus points for laps led and fastest laps available on DraftKings and laps led and laps completed on FanDuel. The total on DK is 141 and FD it’s 37.6. The main way to score in this race is to have guys survive the wrecks and move up massively in the field. A typical winning lineup at a plate race will have 10-15K or even 20K left on the table because of the strategy of taking the cheap guys to survive the wrecks and boost the PD points in the lineups. As mentioned in the Track Breakdown piece, more than two-thirds of winners (out of 98 races) have started in the top-10 and half have started inside the top-five. So the best strategy is to take a guy from the top-10 starting spots, take 1-2 from 10-20 in the grid and the rest are filled in with guys in the back. It doesn’t always work but it’s generally the best strategy.
Playbook
Brad Keselowski | DK: $11,100 | FD: $13,000 | Starting: P18 | Risk: Low | Upside: Medium |
Keselowki might be safest play this week along with his teammate in the 22-car. He is arguably the best plate racer in the Cup series at the moment and has a win, two top-10s and 149 laps led in the last four ‘Dega races. In the last 10 trips to Alabama the 2-car has three wins, four top-fives, five top-10s, and 208 laps led which are all best or second-best in that span. His price is steep, and more this time around than in the April race, but the history proves why he should be atop the salary chart. | |||||
Joey Logano | DK: $10,700 | FD: $12,500 | Starting: P20 | Risk: Low | Upside: Medium |
Logano might be the only driver in the field to have more success in plate races than his teammate. In the last four races at Talladega he has two wins, three top-fives, three top-10s, and 184 laps led which are all the most in the field save for the top-10 tally. Logano’s 82% top-15 rate and 110.8 average which are both by far the best highest in the field in that span. The last 10 races here continue his production level with three wins, four top-fives, four top-10s, and 242 laps led. The Penske team loves running at these races and it shows in their high finishes over both Daytona and Talladega. He’s a cash game play. | |||||
Chase Elliott | DK: $10,300 | FD: $11,800 | Starting: P5 | Risk: Medium | Upside: Medium |
Elliott is the only driver that is safe this week in terms of already having his spot in the Round of 8 locked in with the win last week. However that doesn’t take away from his skill at these types of tracks. In five career races at Talladega, Elliott has two top-fives, two top-10s, and 62 laps run out front. His 91.8 average driver rating is actually fifth best in the field in the last four races here and 35 of his 62 laps led have been in that span too. Elliott is one of the drivers that qualifies well but then drifts back in the pack some for an average finish of 15.3 which gives him a bit more risk. | |||||
Kevin Harvick | DK: $10,100 | FD: $12,200 | Starting: P3 | Risk: Medium | Upside: Medium |
Harvick is a decent performer here. He has a top-five, two top-10s, and 27 laps led in the last four races. Those finishes give him an average finish of 13.5 which puts him eighth in the field since October 2016. If you notice Harvick is the only member of the “Big Three” that made the playbook this week and that’s because he’s the best performing of the bunch at this track. For what it’s worth Harvick did run the fastest single lap in the only practice session and that was with the help of drafting. | |||||
Denny Hamlin | DK: $10,000 | FD: $11,600 | Starting: P10 | Risk: Low | Upside: Medium |
Hamlin isn’t necessarily thought of as one of the best restrictor plate racers in the Cup series but a top-five, two top-10s, four top-15s, 70 laps led, and an average finish of 8.5 (second in the field) speaks differently. He also has a win, two top-fives, and four top-10s in the last 10 races here and his 98 laps led are third best in the field. That’s not bad for a guy that goes unnoticed at most of these races and has showed some ok speed this week. | |||||
Kurt Busch | DK: $9,800 | FD: $11,400 | Starting: P1 | Risk: High | Upside: Low |
Busch has two top-fives, three top-10s, and 23 fastest laps which is the second-most in the field in the last four races here. He won the Daytona 500 last year and has been a solid plate racer for the last several seasons and his six top-10s in the last 10 races here show that including his second place finish here in the Spring. The reasonable price on both sites is very intriguing for either lineup format especially when sitting on the pole in GPP contests. | |||||
Ryan Blaney | DK: $9,600 | FD: $11,000 | Starting: P19 | Risk: High | Upside: Medium |
Blaney is a Penske driver which should set him up well for a restrictor plate track. However he hasn’t run nearly as well as his teammates have at these tracks with just three top-20s in the last four Dega races and one top-15. He typically does drive a fast race car but it hasn’t shown up in the standings at Talladega or Daytona yet. He will start in the middle of the pack which isn’t ideal to start but this track shuffles guys all over the place to begin with. | |||||
Clint Bowyer | DK: $9,200 | FD: $10,700 | Starting: P2 | Risk: High | Upside: Medium |
It’s a tale of two histories at ‘Dega for Bowyer. He has won here in his career and in the last 10 races here he has five top-10s and six top-15s and nearly a +7.0 PD in that span. In the last four races however its been a bit of a rough patch. One top-15 and two top-20s is all he’s managed to muster with an average finish of 24.5 which is a -7.5 PD mark for him. The SHR team put all four cars inside the top-12 in qualifying which is a bonus and Bowyer is itching to get to victory lane, but there is a fair bit of risk given his recent luck here. | |||||
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | DK: $9,000 | FD: $9,700 | Starting: P12 | Risk: Low | Upside: Medium |
Stenhouse is a plate racer, that’s what he specializes in and it’s shown here recently. Stenhouse has a win, three top-fives, and 30 laps led in the last four races in Alabama. The driver of the 17-car has been right up there with the Penske teammates in the last 10 races with four top-fives and six top-10s. An upper mid-tier price on both sites is still nice value for him qualifying inside the top-12 for Sunday’s race. | |||||
Aric Almirola | DK: $8,800 | FD: $9,900 | Starting: P4 | Risk: Low | Upside: Medium |
The only driver in field with four straight top-10s at Talladega and the guy that nearly won the Daytona 500 at the start of this season. Aside from finishing in the top-10 every time he’s also posted the top PD mark in that span at a +22.5 mark. This week he won’t need to move up that far as he’ll inside the top-four but the consistency is very nice to have especially at this price point. | |||||
Erik Jones | DK: $8,300 | FD: $9,000 | Starting: P15 | Risk: Medium | Upside: High |
Jones is the reigning winner on the last restrictor plate track, the July Daytona race, which he has stated has given him more confidence coming into this race. He is out of the playoffs and can run more freely in this race than he would if he’d’ve still been in the playoffs. That being said, he hasn’t run well here in the last three races at this track with an average finish of 36 while starting in the 14th spot on average. That kind of risk makes him a better GPP play this week rather than cash. | |||||
Kyle Larson | DK: $8,000 | FD: $8,200 | Starting: P34 | Risk: Low | Upside: High |
Larson had a terrible qualifying session has he ran just the 34th best lap on Saturday afternoon. He has three top-15s in the last four races here and has an average finish of 17.8. With his qualifying spot there is almost no reason not to take the chance on him since there is almost no downside to the 42-car’s position differential mark. He should be highly owned even though he’s not the most dominant guy at this track. His teammate in Jamie McMurray is also a pretty solid plate racer with a top-five, top-10, and two top-20s here in the last four. He’s a bit cheaper but starting a little closer to the front. | |||||
Bubba Wallace | DK: $6,900 | FD: $7,000 | Starting: P17 | Risk: Medium | Upside: Medium |
This is loosely considered Wallace’s home track after he was born in Mobile, Alabama but only spent a few years of his life there before moving to Charlotte, North Carolina. That aside, the youngster is a pretty solidly plate racer with a P16 finish in his lone Cup race here and a second place finish in the Daytona 500 earlier this year. He will start in the middle of the, which is where he started earlier this year and still wound up P16. His low mid-tier price on both sites fit either lineup. | |||||
Trevor Bayne | DK: $6,600 | FD: $7,400 | Starting: P24 | Risk: Medium | Upside: High |
Bayne is back in the 6-car this week and Bayne throughout his career has been a pretty solid plate racer including a win in the Daytona 500 a few years back. In the last four races here he has a top-five, top-10, and two top-20s here but his average finish of 23.8 doesn’t fully show those finishes. Bayne starts a bit closer to the front than I’d like to have seen but at this price point he still works as a GPP play. | |||||
Chris Buescher | DK: $6,400 | FD: $7,500 | Starting: P26 | Risk: Low | Upside: High |
Buescher has two top-15s and three top-20s in the last four races here to go with his average finish of 16.3 in that span after starting P30 on average. He does start a bit better than that this week but the same principle holds, the 37-car knows how to avoid the Big One and move up through the field which at this price, especially on DK is worth it here. His teammate in AJ Allmendinger is also a reasonable GPP play with his history at solid finishes at Daytona but still trying to figure out Talladega. | |||||
Ty Dillon | DK: $6,000 | FD: $6,500 | Starting: P29 | Risk: Low | Upside: High |
Three top-15s and 14 fastest laps go along well with a P13 average finish here in the last three races he’s run at Talladega. The strategy here is to have guys survive and move through the field and that’s exactly what Ty offers and for a cheap price tag on both sites, which isn’t necessarily a requirement this week as there will be a ton of salary left on the table for the winning lineups. | |||||
David Ragan | DK: $5,700 | FD: $5,000 | Starting: P16 | Risk: Low | Upside: Medium |
Ragan might be one of the dart throws other weeks but this week he has a reputation for finishing in the top-10 with three of them here in the last four races at the track. His average finish of 12.5 is still a few spots higher than this week’s starting spot but he did qualify better than I’d have liked but at least he has a fast car. He works for either lineup but the high starting spot does fit better with a GPP format. | |||||
Matt DiBenedetto | DK: $5,400 | FD: $4,500 | Starting: P27 | Risk: Low | Upside: High |
Fresh off landing himself a new ride for next year in the 95-car, DiBenedetto still has a few things to wrap up in the 32-car and one of them is posting another solid finish on Sunday. He has two top-20s in the last four races with 18 laps led. The average finish of 23.8 is pretty solid and he’s far enough back that he should be able to see his way through the multitude of accidents that are likely to happen. | |||||
Joey Gase | DK: $4,600 | FD: $4,000 | Starting: P37 | Risk: Low | Upside: High |
Gase has run three of the last four races here and has a strong +10 PD mark in that span. For a guy at the bottom of the salary lists on both sites there is no risk to playing him and a bunch of upside if he sneaks into the top-25 by race’s end. With top-cash plays being in the middle of the pack it might be a good place to save salary for the end of the lineup. | |||||