New racetrack this week and during an elimination race to boot. While the race is being held at Charlotte Motor Speedway which is typical for the NASCAR playoffs but at the oval not the Roval. This has been a highly anticipated race since it was announced last offseason and now the weekend is here to see what will happen when 40 high-powered race cars try and tame the half-oval/half-road course layout.

There is a great breakdown of the layout in the Track Breakdown piece earlier this week and if you want a breakdown from the eyes of the pole sitter, Kurt Busch, I’ve embedded that into the Practice Notes article. All-in-all it is a 17-turn, 2.28-mile lap that contains nearly all of the normal 1.5-mile oval but inserts a .75-mile infield area that holds turns 1-8 and they’ve added in two chicanes, or bus stops, one on each of the back and front stretches in order to slow down the cars bit and add a bit more of a challenge for the second half of the track. Practice has been a feeling out process of sorts, though all of the drivers were able to get on the simulator before actually setting foot on the track, which has helped. The practices have been filled with spins and wrecks and backup cars to this point but it was also time for the track staff to figure things out too. Penalties and barrier placement were still being figured out as late as the final practice of the week.

My first thoughts on strategy for the week is to treat this like a normal road course because even the speeds on the oval portion won’t be continuously as high as they would be straight on the 1.5-mile race format. During practice cars still had to work to pass each other even on the part of the track they were familiar with and Turn 5 and perhaps the chicane on the front stretch are the best places on the road section of the course to pass. Drivers that start closer to the field should be able to hang on to those spots unless miscues or poor pit stops hold them back. However that being said, there are a few fast cars starting further back in the field thanks to bad qualifying efforts or practice crashes that have forced a move to a back-up car. How easily those cars can move up is an unknown here which joins a long list of unknowns this weekend.

With 109 laps in the race, there’s just 81.75 bonus points from fastest laps or laps led for the whole of the field on DraftKings and 21.8 from laps led and laps completed from the FanDuel rosters. Position differential is the only real way to boost the score or hoping the front of the grid guys stick up front.

Please make sure to check out the other articles this week to get a full scope of info going into the race since this is the first race ever run in this configuration.

 

Playbook

Kevin Harvick

DK: $11,700  FD: $12,800

Even though he’s cheaper on DraftKings than FanDuel he is actually the most-expensive driver on DK and only fourth-most on FD. Harvick has been a very good road racer of late with a win, two top-fives, and four top-10s in the last six races with 62 laps led and 56 fastest laps. He also has four top-10s in the last six races at the Charlotte 1.5-mile track with 206 laps led and 170 fastest laps. He may not have shown the speed we expect from the 4-car but his Crew Chief explained they are simply trying to make it to the race clean and comfortable with the track. I expect him to contend come Sunday and move up from his P19 starting spot to finish near or inside the top-eight.

Kyle Busch

DK: $11,400  FD: $14,500

Busch has been a factor no matter where they’ve raced over the past two and a half years for the most part and in fact he’s the only driver in the field with six top-10s in the last six road races including driving from the back of the field to P3 in the last quarter of the Watkins Glen race this Summer. Busch has looked strong in single-lap and consecutive lap averages this week once again and has run faster than his P14 qualifying spot would lead on. He is the most-expensive on FanDuel and is slightly cheaper than Harvick on DK but he’s in a similar boat to the driver previously mentioned in the Playbook where he should be a threat for a top-five finish even with nothing to race for this week, also like the 4-team.

Martin Truex Jr.

DK: $11,100  FD: $14,000

Truex Jr. might be the driver best suited for this combination of track styles this week as he’s won two of the last three road races and finished second in the other one while also flat out dominating the Charlotte 1.5-mile track over the last six races. He ran inside the top-five in both of the Saturday sessions in single-lap speed and ran the third best average of all laps run in the Happy Hour session. He barely missed making the top-12 in qualifying by less than .2 seconds as the clock expired putting him in P13 for Sunday’s race. His ability to navigate this style of course might be the best in the field and he’s perhaps my favorite play this week even at the expensive price tags he comes with.

Chase Elliott

DK: $10,500  FD: $12,000

Chase is the most recent winner of a road course race when he held off Truex Jr. for the final several laps at Watkins Glen this Summer for his first career Cup series win. He also has three top-10s in the last six road races but has been just average at Charlotte’s normal configuration with two top-10s and three top-15s in the last five races he’s run there with 115 laps led and 88 fastest laps. Elliott has shown consistent speed this week in the 9-car as he’s run in the top-10 for the single-lap speeds, had the best of three 10-lap averages in the second practice and the fourth-best average lap speed in the final practice. Elliott starts P4 in the race, in the middle of a pack of five-straight Chevys and the Hendrick crew has clearly brought their A-game this week. He does need a very good performance here to ensure moving onto the next round.

Kyle Larson

DK: $10,100  FD: $12,500

Larson is a bit the opposite of Elliott as Larson has had better success at Charlotte in the 1.5-mile as compared to his runs at Sonoma and Watkins Glen. Larson has three top-15s in the last six road races and three top-10s at Charlotte in the same span. Larson has gotten better as the weekend went on and was up to P3 in single laps in the final practice and P2 in the lap averages in the same session. He qualified P5 in the 42-car but even with what I’ve described above there is some risk to Larson as he starts on average 2.7 on road courses but then backs up to 18.3 in the last six. He might be more of a GPP play because of that but still works as a low-tier cash play.

Brad Keselowski

DK: $9,800  FD: $13,200

Keselowski has two top-fives, two top-10s, and five top-15s in the last six road races and two top-fives and four top-10s in the last six Charlotte races. He isn’t on here simply because of his decent history at both track styles, he’s on here because of his speed this week. Keselowski was arguably the fastest car on the track all week running P11, P4, P1 in the three practices in single-lap speeds and running P1 in the lap average in Happy Hour as the only driver to average a sub-79 second lap in the session. The issue for Brad is that he qualified P25 and then crashed his primary car at the end of the final practice and went to a backup car. That will put him at the back of the field to start while still being listed as starting P25 on both sites. His price is much more intriguing on DK than FD but still worth it on FD in a GPP format.

Clint Bowyer

DK: $9,500  FD: $11,400

Bowyer is currently one of the drivers below the cutline in this elimination race and needs a very good day to move on. That being said, Bowyer’s been one of the most consistent road racer in MENCS the last few years with three top-fives and three top-10s in the last three trips to Sonoma and The Glen each. The 14-crew was petrified of this track starting back last week and was heard on the radio taking about the dangerous spots of the track how best to just survive the weekend. Bowyer qualified P7, and has run as good as P5 in practice while employing the same strategy as Harvick. He’s in a good starting spot and should be able to hang around there for the race.

Denny Hamlin

DK: $9,200  FD: $12,200

It has been quite the adventurous week for Hamlin as he’s seemingly spun and hit as many things as anyone including during qualifying where he hit the wall and actually got out of the car and helped tape his backend back together. This is a must-win for Hamlin unless the nine guys in front of him wreck out of the race. His history at road races suggests he’s quite good with a win, four top-fives, and five top-10s in the last six and five top-fives in the last six Charlotte races. He qualified worse than he ran at practice by several spots however because he went to a backup car on Saturday he will need to start in the rear with a scored starting spot of P27. He still fits either lineup format because theres basically no where to go but up for him.

Kurt Busch

DK: $9,000  FD: $11,200

Mentioned in the Drivers To Watch section of the Track Breakdown, he went out and nailed down the pole position on Friday afternoon. I mentioned him in that section mainly because of his impressive +11 PD stat in the last six road races with five top-10s in that span. He also boasts the same stat in the last six Charlotte races. The PD is nice but clearly not needed when starting out front however if he does drift back in the pack it’s a skill that will come in handy. He hasn’t replicated the speed at practice that he showed in qualifying but it will still be tough to get around guys on this layout. Despite being a pole sitter he is playable in either format just because on road courses it’s hard to pass the pole sitter for several laps.

Joey Logano

DK: $8,800  FD: $11,700

Logano has a win, a top-five, and two top-10s in the last six Charlotte races and two top-fives, and two top-10s on road courses. He qualified P15 this week but ran faster than that at each session though he never really showed what long-run speed he is capable of since he didn’t run double-digit laps consecutively in any session. His teammate is clearly fast but Logano dialed it back a bit as to not damage the car like Keselowski did. Starting in the middle of the pack he needs to move up just a bit and survive to protect his +17 point lead over the cut line. Logano works for either.

Jimmie Johnson

DK: $8,600  FD: $10,600

JJ currently sits six points outside the top-12 for moving past the first round of the playoffs but that’s not much of a surprise with his lackluster season to this point. However based on his runs this weekend he may be the sneaky pick for car to beat come Sunday. He starts P6 for the race, and that makes him the third HMS car in line as Alex Bowman and Chase Elliott are both ahead of him. Johnson ran P1 in the single-lap speed in the second practice and then ran the best 10-lap average in the final session from laps 3-12. Overall at road courses he’s not been great but at Charlotte he has been and by the way he was the second fastest driver through the chicanes in the final practice according to Parker Kilgerman’s splits on the broadcast. Either lineup should work for him.

Jamie McMurray

DK: $7,900  FD: $9,000

Jamie Mac has three top-10s in the last six road races and a top-five and three top-10s in that same time frame at Charlotte. He doesn’t have a ride for next year so what better way to show what you’ve got then showing out at a brand new course. McMurray will start P8 and ran about there in practice on the short runs that most drivers stuck to. He may not do much more than hang around that same area but a top-10 finish isn’t anything to sneeze at.

AJ Allmendinger

DK: $7,700  FD: $8,600

It’s unusual to see Allmendinger this cheap on a road course but apparently someone fell asleep at the pricing switch and we’ll gladly take advantage of it. Allmendinger showed some serious speed at qualifying with a P2 starting spot and putting up a time that Kurt Busch nearly didn’t beat. His performance at road courses is well known and he was the car to beat at Sonoma this year until he missed a shift and blew the engine early. Allmendinger ran the 8th lap average in Happy Hour and has been near or in the top-10 at single lap speeds. Just because of his price and prowess at this type of course he should make his way into either lineup pretty easily and frequently.

William Byron

DK: $7,000  FD: $6,500

Talking about a guy who’s gotten faster each time out this weekend, Byron fits that description. First practice he ran P32 on the board, then he qualified P21, the ran P10 and P2 in successive Saturday sessions. Byron then put up the third-best 10-lap average in the final practice session as well. With penalty of room to move up in the field and a top-10 finish in his two road races at the Cup level there is some intrigue with him this week. His price on both sites is very attractive for either lineup format and he may be highly-owned because of that.

Trevor Bayne

DK: $6,500  FD: $6,200

Bayne is approaching his last few guaranteed rides in a Cup car this weekend as he’s still looking for a ride for 2019. The driver of the 6-car doesn’t light up the stat sheet with just one top-10 in his last five road races and not in the top-15 in the last six Charlotte races. Bayne went out and qualified P16 for the race but still ran faster than that in all facets in practice including a P9 spot in the lap average of the final practice. At this price he’s a budget-friendly guy with a nice floor and ceiling to fit into a GPP lineup.

Michael McDowell

DK: $6,100  FD: $7,000

McDowell is a guy that’s been surprising people with his finishes in the second half of the season as he’s seemingly always getting more out of his equipment then maybe he should be capable of. McDowell is a pretty good road racer with two top-15s in the past six races. He starts P18 for Sunday and ran around there or faster in practice including a P8 single lap speed, P2 10-lap average, and P5 lap average overall in the final session. It’s hard not to think he can’t finish better than where he starts and that’s what we’re looking for at this price point, though I like it better on DK than FD.

Daniel Hemric

DK: $5,600  FD: $4,000

Hemric has looked spectacular this weekend in both the Xfinity and Cup series cars. He was leading the Xfinity series race until he overdrove the front-stretch chicane and cut it leading to a stop-and-go penalty. Meanwhile in the Cup car he has been surprisingly near the top of the speed charts nearly all weekend and posting a P4 10-lap average in the final practice. He will start P11 but he should still be able to stick up there with what he’s shown this week. It’s a little further up than where I typically like cheap guys to start but hey when they have the speed you have to play them.