UPDATE: Daniel Suarez has had his qualifying time disallowed and will start from the REAR! He is a must play in all formats!

After a crazy week last week it’s time for the teams on the bubble to really start to make a push with the mysterious Roval looming next week. That leaves the 400 laps at Richmond Raceway as the best chance to clinch a spot into the second round but that doesn’t mean that Richmond is a simple straight forward task either. The tricky short track drives like a 1.5-mile at times but then a short track in distance and braking style and that doesn’t include just how rounded the front stretch is.

The 0.75-mile Tri-Oval layout has turns that are banked at 14 degrees all the way up to the wall and a front stretch that’s banked at eight degrees. The most sneaky part of the track is that it can be wide enough to support three-wide at times, but generally not into the corners and that’s where the issues can arise. In the Xfinity race on Friday night for example, while multiple grooves did come in throughout the race, going into a turn three- or four-wide resulted in most of the cautions that occurred during the race, including taking out points leader late in the race. Reeling off the laps at 23 seconds a clip mean that there is little room for error during a lap and if someone jumps out to a lead it can be hard to reel them back in without the aid of a caution of some kind.

As mentioned in the Track Breakdown, 96 of 123 winners at Richmond have started in the top-10 and 71 of the past winners have started in the top-five in the grid. That combined with the fact that nine of the top-10 starting spots for Saturday’s race will be occupied by playoff drivers, suggests that a winner should come from that group, though anything can happen. In the past few races however there have been plenty of cars starting further back in the pack that move up into the 10-20 range which can provide the much need position differential points that will boost the lineup. There have also been seven different drivers in the last 10 races of those still active in the field so it’s not a track that’s high on repeating easily.

In DraftKings there are a total of 300 bonus points available today (100 for laps led and 200 for fastest laps) which mean the scores can be quite high assuming only a couple of drivers lead the most laps. For FanDuel there are 240 bonus points available (40 for laps led and 200 for laps completed if all your drivers complete all 400 laps), which should also boost the FD scores pretty high.

The practices were run during the day while the race is a night race which means the track will be different throughout the race than it was during practice. The temp as the sun goes down will make the cars handle the track differently and the teams that can stay ahead of the track change will be the ones that perform the best tonight. Don’t be surprised to see some of the cars that are bad in the first half of the race be good in the second half and vice versa simply because of the changes in the track. The other thing to keep in mind is that three of the last four races at Richmond have gone to overtime following a late race caution.

Playbook

Kevin Harvick

DK: $12,200  FD: $13,600

Harvick was the first of the playoff drivers to crash out of the race last week but he has rebounded decently well this weekend throughout practice and grabbing the pole position for the race. He has three top-five finishes in the last four races here and an average finish of 7.5 but just 19 laps led in that span. Harvick’s 4-car has been better over the long-run than it has been over the short run this weekend, which should be helpful for much of the race but if a sprint to the finish comes up, it could hamper him. Being the pole sitter puts him squarely in the GPP column especially with the drivers around him in the grid leading so many more laps here than him.

Kyle Busch

DK: $11,800  FD: $13,800

Busch has the most wins here of anyone in the field with five victories in the Cup series. One of those has come in the last 10 trips to the track, being the Spring race this year when he came from the rear to win. In the rest of that time he has one top-five and three top-10s in the last four with 71 laps led and 59 fastest laps while in the last 10 he has a win, four top-fives, six top-10s, 158 laps led, and 173 fastest laps. Starting P12 after having run inside the top-five in short run and long-run speed all weekend. Not being the most-expensive driver on either site and possessing strong upside makes him a must play in cash and GPP lineups.

Martin Truex Jr.

DK: $11,000  FD: $13,200

Truex has yet to win a short track race in his career, and in fact is tied for the most career wins without having a win at either Bristol, Richmond, or Martinsville. That being said he does have a top-five and two top-10s in the last four races, and has led by far the most laps in that span with 512 run up front. His 210 fastest laps are also the most in the field in that span. Truex will roll off the line in third and has consistently been inside the top-10 in short-run and long-run speed at practice. I’m not sure he has the winning car but I think he leads a lot of laps and then slides back to finish in the top-five, but that still makes him a good play for either lineup format.

Kyle Larson

DK: $10,500  FD: $12,500

Larson won this race a year ago, when it was the last race of the regular season, and it’s his only career win on a short track (though he’s been close several times at Bristol). He has two top-fives, three top-10s aside from that win in the last four plus 73 laps led and 55 fastest laps. If he hopes to make it deep into the playoffs, he will need a win and this track presents perhaps the most logical spot for him to get it. That could be tricky though with only middling long-run speed to this point in the weekend but short-run speed that was P9 in both practices before qualifying P10. He is a low-tier cash play and a solid GPP option.

Brad Keselowski

DK: $10,200  FD: $14,000

The most eye-popping stat in Keselowski’s résumé here is that he has a +12.5 PD mark in the last four races here that has led him to two top-fives and three top-10s with 119 laps led and 162 fastest laps. He’s on a big time run right now that’s seen him win the last three races in a row, all while not having the fastest car on the track. He doesn’t have the fastest car this weekend either based on practice though it looks like he’s got a top-five machine. He is another one that fits both lineups equal as well this Saturday night.

Chase Elliott

DK: $9,900  FD: $12,200

Elliott has a top-five and two top-10s in his last four trips to Richmond including a runner-up here in the Spring race this year. He qualified P19 this race but ran faster than that at practice both in single lap and long-run speeds though not much faster. He was the slowest car of any playoff drivers in the first practice and currently sits below the cutline for the first round. He is more a GPP play this week as he will need to move up into the field to really post a good points day.

Denny Hamlin

DK: $9,600  FD: $13,000

Hamlin is at his home track this week. He grew up in Chesterfield Virginia, which is little more than a stone’s throw from Richmond and that has shown up in his performance at the track. Hamlin has a win and four top-fives and 254 laps led and 120 fastest laps. Hamlin will start P2 on Saturday but his speed has been significantly slower than that at practice this week. There is pressure on Hamlin to nail down a win in order to advance to the next round as he currently sits last in the playoff standings and is 20 points below the cut line, which is hard to overcome in two races without help.

Erik Jones

DK: $9,300  FD: $10,800

Jones was having a good run last week in Vegas until he ran into Kevin Harvick as he had no place to go to avoid him. Now this week he once again has shown solid speed in practice both in long and short run measures before qualifying P9 for the race. Jones has three races at Richmond Raceway and has one top-10 in that time while typically moving backwards in the field by about seven spots. In his two Xfinity races he has finished second and 34th following the same trend as the MENCS races. Because of the inconsistencies in his finishes Jones is more of a GPP option this week.

Clint Bowyer

DK: $9,100  FD: $11,500

Bowyer might be the driver craving a win here more than any other to completely not care what happens at the Roval next weekend. He’s talked about it all weekend in every interview and even in the race promos aired during practice. That’s not the only reason he’s in the playbook though. He has a top-10 and two top-15s in his last four races with 45 laps led and 38 fastest laps. Now this week he has shown very good long-run speed as he ran the second best 10-lap average and the best overall lap average (across all laps run that session) in the final practice and ran inside the top-10 in both metrics in the opening practice. Bowyer qualified P25 which only ups his value even more this week and makes him a near must play in all formats.

Joey Logano

DK: $8,700  FD: $12,700

Logano has very similar stats to his Penske teammate Keselowski here with one big exception, a win in the last four and being one of only two drivers with four top-10s in that time. In fact, Logano is the only driver in the field with two wins in the last 10 races here and he’s only finished outside the top-10 one in that time frame as well. Logano ran the eighth-best 10-lap average in the final practice before qualifying P13 to start the race, but his single-lap speeds were only in the low-20s which means they will have to make adjustments during the race to find the speed. With his history here and his price tag he is a nice mid-tier salary guy (on DK) to put into a lineup and nearly be assured of a top-10 finish.

Kurt Busch

DK: $8,500  FD: $11,200

Like most of this season, Kurt has been under-the-radar and that’s held true this week. He has a top-five and three top-10s in the last four races he’s run here and this week Busch has shown very good speed with the third-fastest 10-lap average in final practice and the fourth-best overall lap average in the first session before qualifying sixth for the race. Over the long-term here Busch has a win, three top-fives, and seven top-10s in the last 10 races here with an impressive 520 laps led (101 in the last four). He may simply lock down a top-five finish this week without leading many laps but that still makes him a solid addition to a lineup.

Aric Almirola

DK: $8,300  FD: $11,000

Almirola is the only member the SHR team that doesn’t have a win yet this year, and what a better time to get one than in the playoffs. His history at Richmond gives him the second-best PD mark in the field at a +9.0 with a top-10 and top-15 in the last four. This weekend he ran faster at first practice, P2 single lap speed, P2 overall lap average, and P3 10-lap average whereas he ran a bit slower than that in the second practice, but that suggests he will have a better car in the cooler temperatures as the race works towards a conclusion. Starting P7 means he will have to stay in the top-10 to put forth a point total to make him worth a play but that shouldn’t be a problem and in fact I foresee a top-five finish coming his way.

Ryan Newman

DK: $8,100  FD: $9,500

It was just announced yesterday, following practices, that Newman will be moving to the 6-car next year for Roush Fenway but before that happens there is some unfinished business for RCR to attend to. Newman has had a very quick long-run car all weekend with runs in the top-six across 10-lap average and overall lap average for the session. Newman will roll off in 17th but should have the speed to move up and his history of a top-five and two top-10s in the last four also suggest he’s capable of doing that as well. He offers the most PD upside of those near his salary on both sites as well.

Alex Bowman

DK: $7,700  FD: $8,100

Bowman has been the HMS driver to show the best speed all weekend over both the long run and the short run with top-10 speed in both metrics at both practices. He then went out and set himself up in 14th to start the race meaning he should have nice PD upside at a mid-tier price on both sites. There’s also the fact that he’s sitting on the cut line in the playoffs at this point and would like to solidify his standing a bit more before the expected chaos of the Roval bares out next week.

Daniel Suarez

DK: $7,500  FD: $9,200

Suarez is the only driver starting in the top-10 of the race that isn’t in the playoff field. He’s also been one of the only non-playoff drivers to show up in the top-10 of the speed charts in all metrics in the two practice sessions. His history here has produced two top-10s in his three Cup races and a healthy +8 in PD as well. Suarez won’t need that high of a PD this week as he starts P5. But he could be a sneaky play to lead some laps and post a solid points day for not a big chunk of the budget. Update: His qualifying time of P5 has been disallowed and he will start from the REAR! He is a must play in all formats today due to the massive PD upside he has now.

Austin Dillon

DK: $6,900  FD: $8,600

Dillon hasn’t really done much this year aside from winning the opening race of the year and now he needs a win to continue his quest in the playoffs this season. At Richmond previously he has two top-15s in the last four and a PD of +7.7. Dillon qualified P28 for the race but ran substantially faster than that at practice and with his average start of 25 and that aforementioned PD, he could be looking at another top-15 finish on Saturday night. A cash play for sure.

Ty Dillon

DK: $6,000  FD: $6,000

The younger Dillon brother put on a show at practice when he ran P4 in single lap speeds in both sessions and ran a P21 10-lap average in the first session. He then went out and qualified P31 for the race. In his three Cup races at the track he has an average start of P29 (not far off where he starts Saturday) and a PD of +6.3 in that span with a top-20 finish. A cheap upside play is what he amounts to to finish out your lineups on either site.

Ross Chastain

DK: $5,300  FD: $4,000

I am not usually in the business of putting a $4K guy in FD on the playbook but what he has done the last few weeks on the track are impressive, especially driving the 42-car to a second place finish in the Xfinity race last night. Chastain is just a humble eighth generation watermelon farmer that happens to be quite good at getting more out of a race car than it has to give and that’s why he’s on the list. He wont’ finish inside the top-15 or top-20 but as long as he finishes several spots higher than his P32 starting spot, he will have done what he needs to for your lineup.