Saturday night racing is back at Richmond Raceway this weekend in the form of the second race of the Chase Playoffs. Typically this race has been the last race of the regular season and the last chance for drivers to clinch a playoff spot, but now it may serve as the last best chance to make it to the second round as the Charlotte Roval, a course never used in NASCAR, awaits as the last race of the Round of 16. This shift of the playoff schedule also means that there is an added short track amongst the 10-race stretch with Richmond joining Martinsville to make 40% of the Chase tracks 1-mile or shorter.

Richmond is a .75-mile layout that is pretty much a Tri-Oval with 14-degree banking in the turns and eight degrees of tilt to the front stretch. With the shape and the banking this track runs more like a 1-mile or 1.5-mile track than a typical short track in some respects. It can be a multiple grove track though that can depend on weather and timing of the race and even how much rubber gets put down on the track.

Overall the stats on winners coming from outside the top-10 staring spots are sparse. Of the 123 races run here prior to Saturday night’s affair, 96 of the winners have started 10th or better and 71 of 123 have started P5 or better including 7-of-the-last-8 with the only exception being Kyle Busch in April when he started from the rear but had the fastest car all week. So while the winners have all been highly placed at the start, the rest of the top-10 finishing spots get shifted quite a bit here that six drivers in the field have a PD of +6 or better and several others are in the +5 range.

Apologies for the lateness of getting the breakdown up, I had an issue that led to me having to fully reinstall Excel and redo the tables in this piece. Also as a quick schedule note for next week, the track breakdown piece will be a bit different next week as it is a completely new track that is being raced on for the final race of the first round. The Charlotte Roval (Road Course/Oval) runs partly on the oval and partly on the infield road course. There is no data for how anyone has done on this track, other than the test run earlier in the year, and so I will break down who has good history at road courses overall, but again this isn’t a typical road course either.

Track Breakdown

Last Four Races at Richmond Raceway

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Denny Hamlin45.87.5314444254
Joey Logano488.34.313444117
Kyle Larson47.3861234473
Kyle Busch413.87.38.81133471
Kevin Harvick410.38.87.50334419
Brad Keselowski418.87.56.302344119
Kurt Busch45.89.57.801344101
Martin Truex Jr43.8411.801234512
Chase Elliott414.81413.8012230
Ryan Newman417.31418.80122229
Ricky Stenhouse Jr411.517.316011130
Jimmie Johnson41616.39002440
Jamie McMurray48.31211.5002340
Daniel Suarez317.720.39.7002330
Clint Bowyer417.513.817.50012245
Erik Jones312.321.319001220
Aric Almirola4241815001140
Austin Dillon42516.817.3000230
Michael McDowell426.527.322000120
William Byron19912000110
Alex Bowman1112218000010
Ty Dillon32922.722.7000010
Chris Buescher424.325.824.8000010
AJ Allmendinger423.329.827.5000010
Matt DiBenedetto427.327.828000010
David Ragan423.825.828.3000010
Ryan Blaney412.321.528.8000010
Matt Kenseth31.710.33300000256
Regan Smith1242629000002
Jeffrey Earnhardt337.335.732000002
Alon Day0000000000
Cole Custer0000000000
Joey Gase0000000000
Bubba Wallace1182325000000
Ross Chastain1303028000000
Paul Menard425.524.329.3000000
Corey LaJoie233.53230.5000000
Landon Cassill431.533.332.5000000
Timmy Hill1373534000000
BJ McLeod1393737000000

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPosLaps LedHigh toLow to
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiffPts./RaceAvg RatingAvg Rating
Denny Hamlin12089%1613111137.887.52.8015.8826.823.5
Joey Logano3693%1613107.812496.13.707.3116.211.7
Kyle Larson5586%1613103.7125.886.51.304.5622.117.2
Kyle Busch5994%1613104.3118.8865.004.4414.518.3
Kevin Harvick7387%1613102.9121.988.72.801.191914.2
Brad Keselowski16291%1613107.8130.791.312.507.4422.916.5
Kurt Busch4982%1613100.8116.278.1-2.006.3115.422.7
Martin Truex Jr21097%1612119.2134.9102.8-8.0032.0015.716.4
Chase Elliott1066%161383.5101.264.81.000.0017.718.7
Ryan Newman1370%157478.894.766.6-1.501.8115.912.2
Ricky Stenhouse Jr4733%161375.188.666.7-4.500.0013.58.4
Jimmie Johnson1150%161380.184.574.67.000.004.45.5
Jamie McMurray1969%161388.6102.672.5-3.200.001416.1
Daniel Suarez1933%120672.479.661.68.000.007.210.8
Clint Bowyer3859%161282114.347.40.002.8132.334.6
Erik Jones1639%81065.4104.924.2-6.700.0039.541.2
Aric Almirola3442%161375.592.761.99.000.0017.213.6
Austin Dillon142%161271.183.7617.700.0012.610.1
Michael McDowell221%161051.960.740.34.500.008.811.6
William Byron389%40291.391.391.3-3.000.0000
Alex Bowman813%40265.265.265.2-7.000.0000
Ty Dillon519%120555.768.746.56.300.00139.2
Chris Buescher122%160851.963.739.7-0.500.0011.812.2
AJ Allmendinger291%154347.556.142.2-4.200.008.65.3
Matt DiBenedetto110%1554435635.2-0.700.00137.8
David Ragan31%156350.155.742.6-4.500.005.67.5
Ryan Blaney1037%146359.172.834.1-16.500.0013.725
Matt Kenseth12578%992104.7111.698.3-31.3021.336.96.4
Regan Smith03%397454545-5.000.5000
Jeffrey Earnhardt00%119030.735275.300.174.33.7
Alon Day00%00000.00 00
Cole Custer00%00000.00 00
Joey Gase00%00000.00 00
Bubba Wallace00%401505050-7.000.0000
Ross Chastain00%4014141412.000.0000
Paul Menard197%146753.857.547.2-3.800.003.76.6
Corey LaJoie160%79638.241.934.43.000.00  
Landon Cassill241%118838.660.725.2-1.000.0022.113.4
Timmy Hill00%39327.927.927.93.000.0000
BJ McLeod170%31826.926.926.92.000.0000

Top-15 Drivers Over the Last 10 Races at Richmond Raceway

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Joey Logano106.69.56.226999282
Brad Keselowski109.768.3146810773
Kyle Busch913.37.98.314679158
Denny Hamlin101010.91114666269
Kurt Busch107.38.78.913799520
Matt Kenseth96.81118.412555650
Kyle Larson98.411.4101238973
Kevin Harvick107.97.37.80661010124
Jamie McMurray1012.910.91003581010
Jimmie Johnson1013.514.613.10268844
Ryan Newman1017.313.514.40256833
Martin Truex Jr1012.112.51401678512
Clint Bowyer1016.515.819.301455117
Aric Almirola1022.717.415.2013390
Chase Elliott616.315.213.8012350

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPos.Laps LedRating
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts/RaceRange
Joey Logano12381%4012105126.867.60.407.0559.2
Brad Keselowski37294%4013113.4149.891.31.4019.3358.5
Kyle Busch17392%3613104.4125.685.95.004.3939.7
Denny Hamlin18872%400896.6137.871.6-1.006.7366.2
Kurt Busch17479%4012105.2148.168.4-1.6013.0079.7
Matt Kenseth28983%3322105149.772-11.6018.0677.7
Kyle Larson6476%361392.3125.866.1-1.602.0359.7
Kevin Harvick26992%4012106.7122.888.70.103.1034.1
Jamie McMurray7875%401293.6114.164.52.900.2549.6
Jimmie Johnson9564%398187.4116.546.80.401.1069.7
Ryan Newman6766%397184.8101.566.62.900.8334.9
Martin Truex Jr24768%400295.4134.953.4-1.9012.8081.5
Clint Bowyer9360%200483.2115.539.3-2.802.9376.2
Aric Almirola6940%401277.594.161.97.500.0032.2
Chase Elliott1855%40181.3101.264.82.500.0036.4

Top-15 Drivers Over the Last 20 Races on Similar Tracks (New Hampshire and Phoenix)

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Kevin Harvick219.46.86.8516171919923
Matt Kenseth188.88.512.747111213901
Kyle Busch198.85.96.63121617181026
Joey Logano218.7109.6210151719423
Denny Hamlin217.99.89.628141818579
Kyle Larson211012.712.41691518144
Kurt Busch217.610.311.715141617548
Ryan Newman211715.815137131758
Martin Truex Jr219.49.311.8061217191111
Brad Keselowski2112.38.711.106111719309
Chase Elliott1611.510.411.90471214164
Jimmie Johnson2111.912.412.403111818102
Jamie McMurray2112.312.713.602612195
Aric Almirola2123.419.516.602681642
Ricky Stenhouse Jr2118.820.419.302481211

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPosLaps LedRating
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts./RaceRange
Kevin Harvick76693%6869113.715058.92.6010.9991.1
Matt Kenseth53885%5747107.7149.762.2-3.9012.5187.5
Kyle Busch61895%6273116.2149.273.72.2013.5075.5
Joey Logano19680%698298.6125.661.3-0.905.0464.3
Denny Hamlin37179%6984100.9137.863.7-1.706.8974.1
Kyle Larson21468%681192125.863.7-2.401.7162.1
Kurt Busch25779%686797.2148.152.8-4.106.5295.3
Ryan Newman8255%671779.6110.437.22.000.6973.2
Martin Truex Jr52884%6950105.1134.954.6-2.4013.2380.3
Brad Keselowski45088%7009100.2133.167.21.203.6865.9
Chase Elliott19680%548494.8116.364.8-0.402.5651.5
Jimmie Johnson18772%683092.3116.558.6-0.501.2157.9
Jamie McMurray10770%701885.9112.159-1.300.0653.1
Aric Almirola10330%675272.1111.136.76.800.5074.4
Ricky Stenhouse Jr9224%683469.188.651.2-0.500.1337.4

Momentum

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopPosAvg.
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sDiff.Rating
Brad Keselowski512.294.2344458105.8
Kevin Harvick57.610.411.613444-4115
Kurt Busch58.47.88114440.4105.9
Joey Logano58.68.46.6034552103.7
Kyle Larson57.68.87.6033450106.9
Ryan Blaney510.89.88.6023552.298.6
Chase Elliott510.410.413.602344-3.299.6
Erik Jones57.812.813.602344-5.894.1
Kyle Busch5311901445-6101.1
Denny Hamlin54.410.613.401344-993.8
Clint Bowyer514.49.416.401233-298.7
Martin Truex Jr581519.601133-11.692
Austin Dillon515.414.213.2011342.280.7
Ryan Newman51513.61300245279
Aric Almirola511.814.216.200233-4.488.3

 

Points Changes at Richmond September Race

DraftKings

 17 RaceSeasonDK Pts +/-
DriverTotalAvg DK Pts.Season AVG
Martin Truex Jr100.547.453.1
Ryan Newman6826.341.7
Kyle Larson77.2541.7535.5
Brad Keselowski56.7536.0120.7
Jimmie Johnson49.531.0818.4
Erik Jones49.531.1218.4
Daniel Suarez47.530.1917.3
Michael McDowell4022.8217.2
Joey Logano5438.1615.8
Corey LaJoie2715.8611.1
Ty Dillon32.522.629.9
Austin Dillon3328.294.7
BJ McLeod17.513.274.2
Denny Hamlin4136.954.1
Jamie McMurray2723.163.8
Kurt Busch4339.823.2
Chase Elliott35.536.08-0.6
David Ragan20.522.52-2.0
Aric Almirola3337.95-5.0
Paul Menard2025.52-5.5
Jeffrey Earnhardt1319.42-6.4
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1422.98-9.0
AJ Allmendinger14.524.54-10.0
Matt DiBenedetto11.521.57-10.1
Matt Kenseth11.7524.42-12.7
Kyle Busch48.561.33-12.8
Ryan Blaney2336.64-13.6
Chris Buescher4.526.36-21.9
Landon Cassill-420.02-24.0
Clint Bowyer1644.38-28.4
Kevin Harvick2764.04-37.0
    
  AVG. +/-15.4

FanDuel

 17 Race18 SeasonFD Pts +/-
DriverTotalAvg FD Pts.Season AVG
AJ Allmendinger53.242.1211.08
Aric Almirola67.453.5013.90
Austin Dillon65.348.6716.63
Brad Keselowski73.351.6321.67
Chase Elliott70.952.5518.35
Chris Buescher4545.39-0.39
Clint Bowyer51.856.69-4.89
Corey LaJoie5429.8624.14
Daniel Suarez78.948.1230.78
David Ragan55.243.9511.25
Denny Hamlin74.953.6321.27
Erik Jones77.450.8826.52
Jamie McMurray65.944.9320.97
Jeffrey Earnhardt4836.4811.52
Jimmie Johnson79.448.5230.88
Joey Logano85.456.5028.90
Kevin Harvick61.961.740.16
Kurt Busch76.954.5722.33
Kyle Busch75.263.2111.99
Kyle Larson90.255.9634.24
Landon Cassill0.838.49-37.69
Martin Truex Jr73.656.0217.58
Matt DiBenedetto4740.476.53
Matt Kenseth19.140.30-21.20
Michael McDowell71.439.1532.25
Paul Menard52.245.386.82
Ricky Stenhouse Jr56.944.7712.13
Ryan Blaney61.450.3611.04
Ryan Newman90.847.0143.79
Ty Dillon64.342.7721.53
    
  AVG. +/-19.08

 

Top-10 and Bottom-10 Value Drivers

DraftKings

RankDriverValueRankDriverValue
1Regan Smith6.8940Alon Day0.00
2Kevin Harvick5.2539BJ McLeod2.88
3Kyle Busch5.2038Timmy Hill2.89
4Joey Gase4.9337Jamie McMurray3.17
5Clint Bowyer4.8836Corey Lajoie3.24
6Kurt Busch4.6835William Byron3.24
7Aric Almirola4.5734Ryan Newman3.25
8Joey Logano4.3933Erik Jones3.35
9Martin Truex Jr4.3132Bubba Wallace3.36
10David Ragan4.1731Matt Kenseth3.44

FanDuel

RankDriverValueRankDriverValue
1Ross Chastain10.0737Brad Keselowski3.69
2David Ragan9.7736Denny Hamlin4.13
3Landon Cassill9.6235Martin Truex Jr.4.24
4Matt DiBenedetto8.9934Chase Elliott4.31
5Regan Smith8.1433Joey Logano4.45
6Jeffrey Earnhardt8.1132Kyle Larson4.48
7Michael McDowell7.8331Kevin Harvick4.54
8AJ Allmendinger7.6630Kyle Busch4.58
9Joey Gase7.6429Jimmie Johnson4.62
10Timmy Hill7.4928Erik Jones4.71

Drivers To Watch This Week

Denny Hamlin: Richmond is practically in the backyard of his hometown of Chesterfield Virginia. Being that it’s his home track, it’s not shocking to discover that it’s also his best track on the schedule and in the last four he has a win and four top-fives with 254 laps led, good for third in the field. He comes into this race last in the playoff standings after a crash-filled race last Sunday and likely needs a win to advance to the next round, especially given the track (and potential conditions) for next weekend.

Martin Truex Jr.: Truex, as mentioned in the practice notes, has won a short track race in his career but in the last four races here at Richmond he has led the most laps, 512, by exactly double the total of the next closest driver. He was in position to win in the Spring race here but a bad pit stop late took that shot away from him. A top-five and two top-10s are all he has to show for running up front so much but that could change this weekend if things break his way.

Aric Almirola: Almirola has the second-best position differential here in the last four races at a healthy +9.0 in that span with one top-10 and four top-20s. He is already having a career year this season but in order to safely make the next round of the playoffs he will need a strong showing once again this week to try and avoid the havoc that could happen next week at the Roval. Harvick and Kurt also have good history here on his team to lean on from a notes perspective.

Brad Keselowski: It has been quite a few weeks for the 2-car and Keselowski as he finished the regular season with two straight wins at crown jewel races and then opened the playoffs with a win last week at Vegas, meaning he is the only one safe for the next round at this point. Keselowski has the best PD mark in the last four races at a whopping +12.5 that’s bolstered by two top-fives, and three top-10s with 119 laps led and 162 fastest laps. Logano has actually been a tad better here in the last four races with a win and three top-fives and four top-10s, but Brad’s the one on the heater at the moment. Either Penske driver is good to watch though.

Kyle Larson: Larson’s last win came at this track a year ago in this race, for his only win on a short track in his career. Since then he has been inconsistent with his speed but has still found ways to compete quite often but will need a win if he hopes to advance far into the playoffs. His average finish of P6 in the last four races is actually the third best mark in the field over that span behind Logano and Hamlin and shows he’s consistently in the running here.