The track with perhaps equal history to Daytona International or Indianapolis is hosting the race this week. The “Track Too Tough to Tame” or the “Lady in Black” are the nicknames for Darlington Raceway in South Carolina and the Southern 500 is known as one of the crown jewels of the schedule along with the Daytona 500, Brickyard 400, Coca-Cola 600, and the Alabama 500. However just because it’s historic and part of that impressive group of races doesn’t mean it’s anything but a common stop on the schedule.

It is in fact anything but normal. First off it’s a distance all its own at 1.36 mile as a kind of half way between the three 1-mile tracks and the 1.5-mile tracks. Secondly the two sets of turns are banked at different degrees with the first two at 25 degrees and the second two at 23 degrees. Thirdly the turns are two different radii. They combined to form a egg-shaped track that is arguably the hardest track to get around consistently without painting a “Darlington Stripe” on the side of the car.

With that being said however, it does work similar to a short track in terms of laps led totals with a handful of drivers leading the majority of laps in the last four races with 723 being led by four drivers combined and 518 being led by another single driver. Passing can tricky here too as there is usually just one good groove on the track. Seven drivers in the field have a position differential mark of better +6 but about half of those have only been in one or two races in the last four.

Five of the last six winners of the race have come from the top-10 starting spots with the only exception being Carl Edwards who started 13th in 2015. Denny Hamlin is the only repeat winner in the last 11 trips to the track having won in 2017 and 2010, and before the 2007 race (11 races ago) Jimmie Johnson won both 2004 races and Greg Biffle won back-to-back in 2005 and 2006 after the track went to just one race a year.

Toyota has won the last three races and six of the last 10 while Chevy has won the other four with Ford not having won since 2006, although it is slightly misleading because Kevin Harvick won in 2014, the last time Chevy won, because SHR was still a Chevy shop and not yet a Ford shop.

 

Track Breakdown

Last Four Races at Darlington Raceway

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Kevin Harvick41.534.313444518
Denny Hamlin486.56.813334197
Martin Truex Jr47.38.311.311333104
Joey Logano44.8815.50222366
Kyle Larson413.3108.801344172
Kyle Busch46.88.36.50134410
Matt Kenseth41512.89.30133322
Brad Keselowski43.5610.801234250
Kurt Busch46.59.518.50122214
Austin Dillon418.516.812.3011330
Jimmie Johnson41815.316.8011238
Erik Jones110105011110
Ryan Newman415.3149.5003449
Jamie McMurray41112.813.8001340
Kasey Kahne419.517200012225
Chase Elliott317.71720.7001220
Aric Almirola413.820.321.8000120
Clint Bowyer421.825.322.8000120
Ty Dillon1251713000110
AJ Allmendinger425.52723.8000110
Ryan Blaney313.725.324.7000110
Chris Buescher2292017000020
Paul Menard41721.524.8000020
Ricky Stenhouse Jr41824.826.3000020
Landon Cassill431.527.824000015
Michael McDowell23025.523000010
David Ragan427.826.329.5000001
Matt DiBenedetto329.32826000000
Alex Bowman234.53226.5000000
Corey LaJoie1352828000000
Derrike Cope1383332000000
JJ Yeley1363634000000
Jeffrey Earnhardt237.53534000000
Daniel Suarez1193138000000
BJ McLeod0000000000
Bubba Wallace0000000000
Joey Gase0000000000
Ross Chastain0000000000
Timmy Hill0000000000
William Byron0000000000

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPosLaps LedHigh toLow to
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiffPts./RaceAvg RatingAvg Rating
Kevin Harvick179100%1474130.7148.9109.3-2.8032.3818.221.4
Denny Hamlin9098%1475113.1136.992.41.2012.3123.820.7
Martin Truex Jr9388%1472106.9125.970.9-4.006.501936
Joey Logano4594%145998.1118.182.4-10.704.132015.7
Kyle Larson9780%1474100.3111.181.74.5010.7510.818.6
Kyle Busch3494%1475102.6116.592.30.300.6313.910.3
Matt Kenseth3574%147599.3114.273.65.701.3814.925.7
Brad Keselowski10191%1474113.4137.497.1-7.3015.632416.3
Kurt Busch7590%142892.1116.469.8-12.000.8824.322.3
Austin Dillon1338%147579.196.262.86.200.0017.116.3
Jimmie Johnson3364%143585.7101.276.91.200.5015.58.8
Erik Jones895%367103.1103.1103.15.000.0000
Ryan Newman1064%147587.295.778.35.800.568.58.9
Jamie McMurray378%147483.686.481.3-2.800.002.82.3
Kasey Kahne2347%142179.287.163.7-0.501.567.915.5
Chase Elliott2154%96075.497.945.4-3.000.0022.530
Aric Almirola122%145066.985.253-8.000.0018.313.9
Clint Bowyer2117%112459.185.230-1.000.0026.129.1
Ty Dillon035%36675.775.775.712.000.0000
AJ Allmendinger31%144653.37230.61.700.0018.722.7
Ryan Blaney259%108963.476.846.7-11.000.0013.416.7
Chris Buescher48%73365.365.964.712.000.000.60.6
Paul Menard719%137064.869.659.3-7.800.004.85.5
Ricky Stenhouse Jr215%141258.372.249.9-8.300.0013.98.4
Landon Cassill03%146551.160.740.27.500.319.610.9
Michael McDowell21%72954.66742.17.000.0012.412.5
David Ragan2114%137155.173.642.7-1.700.0618.512.4
Matt DiBenedetto31%109347.950.145.23.300.002.22.7
Alex Bowman21%73644.849.939.68.000.005.15.2
Corey LaJoie20%36048.448.448.47.000.0000
Derrike Cope01%35133.733.733.76.000.0000
JJ Yeley00%34833.833.833.82.000.0000
Jeffrey Earnhardt50%60332.339.924.73.500.007.67.6
Daniel Suarez07%12549.749.749.7-19.000.0000
BJ McLeod00%00000.00 00
Bubba Wallace00%00000.00 00
Joey Gase00%00000.00 00
Ross Chastain00%00000.00 00
Timmy Hill00%00000.00 00
William Byron00%00000.00 00

 

Top-15 Drivers at Last 10 Races at Darlington Raceway

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Denny Hamlin1010.18.55.8268910372
Kevin Harvick1012.28.911.114679567
Jimmie Johnson1016.213.513.814478144
Kyle Busch1010.87.48.913799597
Matt Kenseth101713.49.81278858
Martin Truex Jr10149.811.112689202
Ryan Newman1012.914.512.60278885
Brad Keselowski911.712.212.402478250
Joey Logano911.713.618.30244585
Kurt Busch1010.41216.70235684
Jamie McMurray1013.813.114.90136887
Kasey Kahne1014.512.917.401346228
Kyle Larson413.3108.801344172
Austin Dillon418.516.812.3011330
David Ragan1024.125.726.3011223

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPos.Laps LedRating
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts/RaceRange
Denny Hamlin19387%3681108.5136.973.44.309.3063.5
Kevin Harvick23087%3578107.8148.971.71.1014.1877.2
Jimmie Johnson13765%60394.4141.155.82.403.6085.3
Kyle Busch24891%3617110.9138.685.41.9014.9353.2
Matt Kenseth10269%367794125.656.77.201.4568.9
Martin Truex Jr21080%3677102.2125.970.92.905.0555
Ryan Newman3562%360886.2115.3390.302.1376.3
Brad Keselowski12865%330495.7137.469.6-0.706.9467.8
Joey Logano5668%324086.1118.155-6.602.3663.1
Kurt Busch12876%362889116.453-6.302.1063.4
Jamie McMurray5063%127585.4121.163.7-1.102.1857.4
Kasey Kahne18560%362491.5135.260.3-2.905.7074.9
Kyle Larson9780%1474100.3111.181.74.5010.7529.4
Austin Dillon1338%147579.196.262.86.200.0033.4
David Ragan4817%335558.797.538.7-2.200.0858.8

Momentum

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopPosAvg.
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sDiff.Rating
Kevin Harvick513.485.2235558.2118.3
Kyle Busch57.68.25.8144451.8117
Chase Elliott58.46.65135553.4119.7
Kurt Busch5139.46.6115556.4104.4
Erik Jones57.410.28.803345-1.495.5
Martin Truex Jr57.69.41302244-5.4100.8
Daniel Suarez518.41411.402234786.5
Ryan Blaney513.498.6013554.898.8
Joey Logano516.617.217.201333-0.676.5
Alex Bowman514.414.411012453.483.3
Kyle Larson51512.41201234388.1
Aric Almirola514.615.217.601222-386.2
Austin Dillon520.215.815.6011334.674.7
Brad Keselowski511.2142101113-9.881.8
Denny Hamlin5310.611.600255-8.691.9

 

Points Changes at Darlington Raceway

DraftKings

 17 RaceSeasonDK Pts +/-
DriverTotalAvg DK Pts.Season AVG
Denny Hamlin108.537.8270.7
Kyle Larson7741.3435.7
Martin Truex Jr7248.0524.0
Kyle Busch5662.96-7.0
Kurt Busch54.7540.6514.1
Austin Dillon5128.2422.8
Erik Jones4832.6315.4
Ryan Newman47.524.922.6
Matt Kenseth46.521.3325.2
Ty Dillon4622.8923.1
Chase Elliott4538.436.6
Kevin Harvick42.567.45-25.0
Chris Buescher3926.1112.9
Jimmie Johnson38.533.165.3
Michael McDowell3622.8113.2
Paul Menard35.524.0211.5
Landon Cassill34.2518.8615.4
Jamie McMurray29.523.366.1
David Ragan28.522.795.7
Brad Keselowski26.7533.14-6.4
Corey LaJoie2413.6610.3
Jeffrey Earnhardt23.518.74.8
Kasey Kahne2226.89-4.9
Aric Almirola1938.48-19.5
Joey Logano18.538.06-19.6
Matt DiBenedetto18.522.27-3.8
Derrike Cope18108.0
AJ Allmendinger624.92-18.9
Ricky Stenhouse Jr0.525.04-24.5
Ryan Blaney-136.68-37.7
Daniel Suarez-1329.62-42.6
Clint Bowyer-2045.01-65.0
  AVG +/-19.6

 

FanDuel

 17 Race18 SeasonFD Pts +/-
DriverTotalAvg FD Pts.Season AVG
Denny Hamlin96.154.2641.84
Austin Dillon78.248.2729.93
Kyle Busch77.863.6714.13
Kurt Busch77.454.5022.90
Ryan Newman75.746.0029.70
Erik Jones75.251.8723.33
Martin Truex Jr74.357.4716.83
Matt Kenseth74.237.9936.21
Chase Elliott71.153.6717.43
Kyle Larson7154.1016.90
Ty Dillon70.642.8027.80
Jimmie Johnson68.650.2618.34
Kevin Harvick66.863.563.24
Chris Buescher65.644.5421.06
Jamie McMurray65.144.2620.84
Paul Menard64.143.8120.29
Michael McDowell6438.2125.79
Landon Cassill6237.3824.62
Brad Keselowski58.448.709.70
Aric Almirola5553.581.42
Joey Logano54.655.77-1.17
Kasey Kahne52.944.538.37
David Ragan52.843.789.02
Corey LaJoie52.526.0726.43
Matt DiBenedetto50.742.108.60
Jeffrey Earnhardt50.135.5514.55
Derrike Cope47.121.0526.05
Ricky Stenhouse Jr40.345.60-5.30
AJ Allmendinger38.542.28-3.78
Ryan Blaney36.149.49-13.39
Daniel Suarez648.02-42.02
Clint Bowyer-9.258.50-67.70
    
  AVG. +/-20.27

 

Top 10 and Bottom 10 Value Drivers

DraftKings

RankDriverValueRankDriverValue
1Kevin Harvick5.9240BJ McLeod2.18
2Kyle Busch5.0839Derrike Cope2.22
3Clint Bowyer5.0638Corey Lajoie2.73
4Kurt Busch4.7837Timmy Hill2.82
5Aric Almirola4.7536Matt Kenseth3.14
6Joey Gase4.6535Jamie McMurray3.16
7Martin Truex Jr4.4134William Byron3.18
8Chris Buescher4.2833Ricky Stenhouse Jr3.25
9Austin Dillon4.2832Kyle Larson3.42
10Kasey Kahne4.2731JJ Yeley3.42

 

FanDuel

RankDriverValueRankDriverValue
1Ross Chastain9.8640Kyle Busch4.55
2Joey Gase9.1439Kyle Larson4.58
3Jeffrey Earnhardt8.8938Denny Hamlin4.68
4David Ragan8.2637Matt Kenseth4.69
5Matt DiBenedetto8.1036Martin Truex Jr.4.71
6Reed Sorenson7.6235Kevin Harvick4.74
7Timmy Hill7.6034Kurt Busch4.87
8Landon Cassill7.4833Chase Elliott4.88
9Chris Buescher7.4232Brad Keselowski4.92
10Bubba Wallace7.4231Ryan Newman4.95

 

Drivers To Watch This Week:

Kevin Harvick - Harvick has a win, three top-fives, four top-10s, 518 laps led, 179 fastest laps, a 100% top-15 rate, and a 130.7 average rating in the last four races. I don’t usually list all of that stats in one big list, but I make an exception here because he is at the top of the list in all of those stats. He’s the only one with four top-10s, has more than double the next closest guy in laps led, and just under twice as much in fastest laps and we haven’t even gotten to the most surprising stat total. I went through and averaged the DraftKings points for the last four races here total in the off-week and Harvick AVERAGES 30 more points a race here than the next closest guy. Harvick averages 92.5 points in that span and the next guy in this section is the closest at 62.8 in the same span. And to boot he’s $1,000 cheaper on DK and $600 less on FD than the most-expensive guy.

Denny Hamlin - As mentioned above, Hamlin is the only driver to win twice in here in this decade and he is the defending race winner. Aside from the win he has three top-fives, three top-10s, 197 laps led (good for third on the list) and 90 fastest laps (fourth on the list) in the last four. Hamlin is still looking for a win this year to clinch his spot in the playoffs with only two races left until they start and this is his best chance to do that. His price tag is really good for a guy with that level of success at this track and is far cheaper than the top guys cost.

Kyle Larson - Larson, like Harvick, is locked into the playoffs by virtue of points but has yet to win this season. He could change that this week at Darlington given his record here of a top-five, three top-10s, 172 laps, 97 fastest laps, and a 100.3 driver rating in the last four races. Another things to boost his profile is the near +6 PD he’s posted in the last four races here which makes him one of the best in the field at moving up during the race. The price is better on FanDuel than DraftKings as he’s the second-most expensive on DK just a few hundred below Kyle Busch.

Brad Keselowski - Keselowski doesn’t have a win in the last four or last nine races here, but he does have nice finishes with two top-10s in the last four and four top-10s in the last nine. He also runs up front. A lot. He has 250 laps led and 101 fastest laps in recent history here which are both second only to Kevin Harvick. No win this season hasn’t stopped him from making the playoffs already with a high point total but he would sure like to straighten things out before the playoffs start in two weeks.

Landon Cassill, Ty Dillon, Michael McDowell - An unusual track means a slightly different turn on this section for this week. These three drivers are all between $5K-$6K on both sites this week and all possess a nice part of their stat line in their respective position differential marks at this track. Cassill has raced in the last four and moved up +7.5, Dillon has one race but a +12 mark, and McDowell has two races and a +7 mark. There are one top-15 and two top-20s between them so again nothing that jumps off the sheet but at a track that’s hard to pass on, these three have figured it out and make nice budget plays to counterbalance the higher than normal price tags for the top drivers this week.