From the fastest track on the schedule to the fastest half-mile in the world at Bristol Motor Speedway. Aside from being the fastest short track, it’s also the fourth largest sports venue in the country, and the eighth largest in the world which is just an interesting fact to know. The speed at the track comes from the banking in the turns of 26-30 degrees depending on how close to the inside or the wall you are. The straights are banked at 6-10 degrees in the same way. With that speed the laps fly by incredibly fast and it can also make green flag pit stops challenging, especially for unscheduled stops.

Forty cars in the “Bullring” as it’s called can lead to chaos when incidents happen or just simply trying to pass slower cars. In the last couple of races there they have added PJ1 to the grooves to make it more of a multiple groove track than it has been previously. With that being said five of the last eight winners have come from inside the top-five starting spots including three from the pole. There are also eight drivers in the field with a position differential of +6.0 including two with better than a +10 mark.

If you have an average starting spot of better than 10th in the last four races, you have led more than 100 laps in that span. That makes seven drivers in the field this week to achieve that amount of laps led, however two are far ahead of the field in Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch with them each having more than 470 laps in front.

 

Track Data

Last Four Races at Bristol Motor Speedway

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Kyle Busch47.38.81922222529
Kevin Harvick425.58.84.812444142
Jimmie Johnson416.39.55.51234481
Denny Hamlin412.597.50234433
Ricky Stenhouse Jr415.514.87.3023440
Joey Logano48.399.301344111
Kyle Larson486.510.301333472
Clint Bowyer415.81815012230
Austin Dillon417.817.817.8011330
Erik Jones39.39.31501112260
Alex Bowman1895011110
Kurt Busch4142022.5011110
Chris Buescher41925.526.8011110
Ryan Newman417.814.514.50023310
Jamie McMurray419.514.312.8001340
Trevor Bayne421.817.313.5001330
Chase Elliott4714.317.30012316
Aric Almirola420.523.519.8001220
AJ Allmendinger418.518.519.5001120
Martin Truex Jr410.51520.500111116
Ryan Blaney46.314.328.300111100
Daniel Suarez315.715.314.7000235
Paul Menard42016.519.3000130
David Ragan42823.318.3000120
Kasey Kahne413.519.522.8000120
Ty Dillon3262626.3000110
Landon Cassill43125.526.8000025
Matt DiBenedetto4272520.8000020
Michael McDowell422.325.525.8000020
Darrell Wallace Jr1201316000016
William Byron1111518000010
Brad Keselowski48.319.829.80000067
Blake Jones0000000000
Jesse Little0000000000
Corey LaJoie334.729.325.7000000
JJ Yeley1303130000000
Gray Gaulding333.73330.3000000
BJ McLeod1363632000000
Timmy Hill1383637000000
Ross Chastain1273139000000

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPosLaps LedHigh toLow to
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiffPts./RaceAvg RatingAvg Rating
Kyle Busch22883%1740113.1133.271.2-11.7033.0620.141.9
Kevin Harvick13190%200010712693.120.708.881913.9
Jimmie Johnson9584%2000102.6125.779.410.805.0623.123.2
Denny Hamlin7286%1999104.7113.894.85.002.069.19.9
Ricky Stenhouse Jr7760%200087.698.281.48.200.0010.66.2
Joey Logano5283%200097.7117.384.2-1.006.9419.613.5
Kyle Larson23989%1995115.8138.883-2.3029.502332.8
Clint Bowyer1552%116571.692.535.80.800.0020.935.8
Austin Dillon1144%172972.184.947.50.000.0012.824.6
Erik Jones8873%1493101.9139.372.9-5.7021.6737.429
Alex Bowman1788%500102.9102.9102.93.000.0000
Kurt Busch1938%186273.18552.9-8.500.0011.920.2
Chris Buescher3211%197254.68529.5-7.800.0030.425.1
Ryan Newman2271%198781.191.267.83.300.6310.113.3
Jamie McMurray2061%199880.492.955.86.700.0012.524.6
Trevor Bayne1444%199572.884.555.18.300.0011.717.7
Chase Elliott5367%49981.9102.237.3-10.301.0020.344.6
Aric Almirola1720%188760.478.343.10.700.0017.917.3
AJ Allmendinger1130%197966.383.958.3-1.000.0017.68
Martin Truex Jr13053%195389.2127.736.4-10.007.2538.552.8
Ryan Blaney5551%150681.296.556.1-22.006.2515.325.1
Daniel Suarez1551%148675.985.764.21.000.429.811.7
Paul Menard746%195570.488.660.20.700.0018.210.2
David Ragan145%199360.378.247.29.700.0017.913.1
Kasey Kahne1437%173165.375.552.3-9.300.0010.213
Ty Dillon43%136953.164.244.9-0.300.0011.18.2
Landon Cassill12%186550.556.2454.200.315.75.5
Matt DiBenedetto81%199154.55850.56.200.003.54
Michael McDowell11%15014656.625.3-3.500.0010.620.7
Darrell Wallace Jr264%149873.273.273.24.001.5000
William Byron452%49869.769.769.7-7.000.0000
Brad Keselowski4947%187967.794.438.6-21.504.1926.729.1
Blake Jones00%00000.00 00
Jesse Little00%00000.00 00
Corey LaJoie00%196942.844.240.39.000.001.42.5
JJ Yeley00%49339.739.739.70.000.0000
Gray Gaulding00%142338.44832.93.400.009.65.5
BJ McLeod00%48230.630.630.64.000.0000
Timmy Hill00%23424.324.324.31.000.0000
Ross Chastain00%323.223.223.2-12.000.0000

*Laps Comp. is out of 2,000 total run in last four races at Bristol.

Top-15 Drivers over Last 10 Races at Bristol

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Joey Logano106.213.811.424789379
Kyle Busch91013.72222344802
Jimmie Johnson1013.913.41115678125
Kevin Harvick1016.391513677449
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1019.615.79.6046790
Denny Hamlin107.513.315.303567142
Kurt Busch1012.215.919.303355221
Clint Bowyer1019.816.913.10247955
Ryan Newman1015.213.713.20157810
Kyle Larson915.912.216.201566562
Austin Dillon918.419.317.7012660
Aric Almirola102420.920.2012560
Trevor Bayne721.419.414.6012550
Kasey Kahne1012.115.520.60123656
Brad Keselowski107.617.222.401234157

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPos.Laps LedRating
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts/RaceRange
Joey Logano18468%4952100137.841.6-5.209.4896.2
Kyle Busch33664%393699.4133.266.6-12.0022.2866.6
Jimmie Johnson21166%495193.6125.750.22.903.1375.5
Kevin Harvick45086%4867106.512681.61.3011.2344.4
Ricky Stenhouse Jr12752%500782.198.964.810.000.0034.1
Denny Hamlin15170%465492.7120.248.5-7.803.5571.7
Kurt Busch15358%482086.3113.152.9-7.105.5360.2
Clint Bowyer6947%498176.4108.535.86.701.3872.7
Ryan Newman4470%499883.692.567.82.000.2524.7
Kyle Larson34671%4327100.5138.871.5-0.3015.6167.3
Austin Dillon2338%423468.697.835.60.700.0062.2
Aric Almirola4132%449967.5101.943.13.800.0058.8
Trevor Bayne2334%349769.884.547.26.800.0037.3
Kasey Kahne14257%469179.9108.252.3-8.501.4055.9
Brad Keselowski14157%484978.5122.838.6-14.803.9384.2

*Laps Comp. is out of 5,014 total run at the last 10 races at Bristol

Top-15 Drivers at Similar Tracks (last 20 races)

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Jimmie Johnson2012.911.110.1511141516769
Kevin Harvick2012.19.613.4361114161460
Kyle Busch197.611.319.83689101090
Joey Logano209.512.311.626121617382
Martin Truex Jr2011.412.315.51491213636
Kyle Larson1812.311.712.2051214141025
Chase Elliott1010.311.49.805689154
Kurt Busch2012.315.419055812221
Clint Bowyer2019.51612.604101517103
Denny Hamlin207.312.414.804101215275
Brad Keselowski208.114.617.90481012467
Ricky Stenhouse Jr2017.818.815.8047111627
Kasey Kahne2015.314.816.603591656
Aric Almirola1921.120.318.80349110
Ryan Newman2014.115.115028111617

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPosLaps LedRating
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts./RaceRange
Jimmie Johnson66476%8912103.3148.350.22.809.6198.1
Kevin Harvick99982%8828108.9149.754.1-1.3018.2595.6
Kyle Busch61274%7465102.5133.266.6-12.2014.3466.6
Joey Logano24475%894996.3137.841.6-2.104.7896.2
Martin Truex Jr51264%887696.1143.236.4-4.107.95106.8
Kyle Larson56172%7932100.6141.958.70.1014.2483.2
Chase Elliott15379%89594.5129.837.30.503.8592.5
Kurt Busch24761%850084.2113.149.7-6.702.7663.4
Clint Bowyer17853%415481.6108.935.86.901.2973.1
Denny Hamlin23372%863291.8120.248.5-7.503.4471.7
Brad Keselowski33864%847487.213038.6-9.805.8491.4
Ricky Stenhouse Jr15141%836774.398.937.62.000.3461.3
Kasey Kahne22861%869482.1108.252.3-1.300.7055.9
Aric Almirola9132%804669.8101.943.12.300.0058.8
Ryan Newman10557%896380.8106.750.9-0.900.2155.8

*Laps Comp. out of 9,025 total run at Bristol and Dover

Momentum

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopPosAvg.
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sDiff.Rating
Kevin Harvick512.86.64.2245558.6118.8
Kyle Busch585.42.6155555.4122
Martin Truex Jr54.46.87.213355-2.8116.5
Chase Elliott511.28.67124554.2110.1
Ryan Blaney512.88.67.6023555.2101.1
Erik Jones5510.89.202345-4.293.9
Daniel Suarez516.413.210.8022445.688.7
Brad Keselowski59.813.218.402223-8.689.6
Aric Almirola515.414.813013332.485.6
Alex Bowman51317.217.201134-4.276.2
Austin Dillon519.217.817.4011221.870.7
Kurt Busch5139.27.6005555.4104.3
Joey Logano516.617.818.400333-1.873
Denny Hamlin58.811.21200245-3.291.9
Kyle Larson518.413.413.400234586.7

 

Points Changes at Bristol

DraftKings

 17 RaceSeasonDK Pts +/-
DriverTotalAvg DK Pts.Season AVG
Erik Jones135.531.58103.9
Kyle Busch14564.2180.8
Trevor Bayne5417.4136.6
Kyle Larson69.540.7328.8
Ryan Newman48.2524.1424.1
Kurt Busch62.539.3523.2
Jimmie Johnson5132.718.3
Denny Hamlin5638.3617.6
Paul Menard4025.9214.1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr38.525.113.4
Corey LaJoie2314.138.9
Jamie McMurray31.524.037.5
David Ragan3022.77.3
Michael McDowell3023.726.3
BJ McLeod1610.675.3
Matt DiBenedetto26224.0
Kevin Harvick70.567.932.6
Gray Gaulding1916.812.2
Ryan Blaney36.534.741.8
AJ Allmendinger2626.22-0.2
Daniel Suarez27.529.27-1.8
JJ Yeley1416.83-2.8
Joey Logano29.536.12-6.6
Chris Buescher17.525.72-8.2
Landon Cassill718.03-11.0
Chase Elliott21.536.5-15.0
Brad Keselowski833.45-25.5
Kasey Kahne-0.526.36-26.9
Ty Dillon-4.522.45-27.0
Clint Bowyer1642.97-27.0
Martin Truex Jr18.549.61-31.1
Aric Almirola2.539.9-37.4
Austin Dillon-1727.92-44.9
    
  AVG. +/-20.4

 

FanDuel

 17 Race18 SeasonFD Pts +/-
DriverTotalAvg FD Pts.Season AVG
Erik Jones115.550.3265.18
Kyle Busch117.163.7253.38
Trevor Bayne90.540.8149.69
Ryan Newman88.644.5044.10
Kurt Busch9652.7743.23
Corey LaJoie6625.9040.10
Denny Hamlin9053.4936.51
Jimmie Johnson8548.9636.04
Jamie McMurray78.544.0034.50
Paul Menard80.445.9834.42
Michael McDowell73.939.7234.18
Ryan Blaney8147.6433.36
Kyle Larson85.552.6132.89
David Ragan74.942.6232.28
Ricky Stenhouse Jr7745.0231.98
Kevin Harvick93.562.9130.59
Matt DiBenedetto68.640.8527.75
Daniel Suarez74.547.0127.49
JJ Yeley60.334.8325.47
Gray Gaulding61.836.5525.25
AJ Allmendinger69.344.1725.13
Joey Logano75.553.9121.59
Chris Buescher57.643.2714.33
Chase Elliott66.151.9414.16
Kasey Kahne56.243.0513.15
Landon Cassill46.235.3310.87
Clint Bowyer66.956.6910.21
Brad Keselowski55.347.787.52
Martin Truex Jr62.457.864.54
Ty Dillon37.441.51-4.11
Aric Almirola38.554.07-15.57
Austin Dillon13.546.98-33.48
    
  AVG. +/-28.53

 

Top-10 and Bottom-10 Value Drivers

DraftKings

RankDriverValueRankDriverValue
1Kevin Harvick5.6640BJ McLeod2.13
2Kyle Busch5.2239Timmy Hill2.59
3Aric Almirola5.0538Jesse Little2.61
4Kurt Busch4.6337Corey Lajoie2.77
5Clint Bowyer4.6236Trevor Bayne2.95
6Martin Truex Jr4.5935Jamie McMurray3.16
7Blake Jones4.2234William Byron3.20
8AJ Allmendinger4.1633Ricky Stenhouse Jr3.22
9Matt DiBenedetto4.1532Brad Keselowski3.38
10Chris Buescher4.1531Gray Gaulding3.43

FanDuel

RankDriverValueRankDriverValue
1Ross Chastain9.5339Kyle Larson4.38
2J.J. Yeley8.7138Kyle Busch4.72
3Ty Dillon8.3037Chase Elliott4.72
4Blake Jones8.2036Brad Keselowski4.78
5Jesse Little8.2035Kevin Harvick4.84
6Michael McDowell7.9434Kurt Busch4.89
7David Ragan7.7533Ryan Blaney4.96
8Matt DiBenedetto7.4332Jimmie Johnson5.00
9Gray Gaulding7.3131Daniel Suarez5.00
10Chris Buescher7.2130Martin Truex Jr.5.03

Drivers to Watch This Week

Kyle Busch: Busch is the only driver in the last four with multiple wins including the last two. In April he won from the pole and last August he won after starting P17. In that time he’s led 529 laps while tallying 228 fastest laps and the second-highest rating of 113.1. However that is about the highlights of not only the last four but also the last 10 races as he has just three top-10s in that span and only four top-20s. He is clearly capable of running up front for quite a while but the question becomes if he will get caught in an incident or not.

Kevin Harvick: Harvick owns the best position differential in the field this week for the last four races at a whopping +20.70. That’s right and is not a typo, I checked multiple times. He starts an average of 25.5 and finishes with the best average finish in the field at 4.8. Harvick is the only driver with four top-10s in this span and has a win, two top-fives, 142 laps led, and 131 fastest laps. His 90% top-15 rate is also the highest in the field and is one of only four drivers to complete every lap since two August’s ago. He is not as expensive as Busch on either site and has a better overall record here.

Kyle Larson: Larson doesn’t have a win here, though he came close in April until Busch ran him down, but he does have a top-five and three top-10s with 472 laps led and 239 fastest laps (the most in the field). That’s a pretty good résumé for a guy who isn’t thought to be a good short track racer, though he does have a win at Richmond. He is the third most expensive driver on both sites this week which could be increase his value depending on how he looks at practice.

Jimmie Johnson: Johnson has been under the radar a bit the last few weeks and rightfully so as he just keeps plodding along with only one top-10 in the last five races in 2018. However at Bristol he has a win, two top-fives, three top-10s, four top-15s, 81 laps led, and 95 fastest laps in the last four races. That win is the only one since 2011 but in the last 10 races JJ has six top-10s and five top-fives and when you add in his +10.8 PD in the last four and he’s got a pretty solid history here. The struggles this year do give pause but if he looks good in practice he should be looking at a spot on a GPP lineup.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Stenhouse has been struggling this year too but it might surprise you to know that he has two top-fives and three top-10s in the last four races at Bristol despite not having led a lap but running 77 fastest laps. His position differential of +8.2 is also one of the tops in the field this week and that gets better over the last 10 races with a +10 mark and four top-fives and six top-10s. For a guy who is a mid-tier priced driver this week it could be hard to find a guy with a better record here.