For the second and final time this season, the Cup series ventures to the Irish Hills of Michigan and to the remarkable speed that is present at Michigan International Speedway. This is the fastest track on the schedule with speeds routinely hitting better than 210 mph entering Turn 1 and it’s due to the layout of the track. At 2.0 miles in length, it’s on the longer end of the spectrum for what are deemed intermediate tracks but the design isn’t that far off from shorter tracks of the same designation. Being a D-shaped track as opposed to a tri-oval also helps keep the speeds up since it’s a smoother line through the front straight and the 18 degree banking in both corners also helps keep up the speeds while not being so steep to require restrictor plates on the cars.
As stated in the Track Breakdown this week there have been 98 races at the track since racing started there in 1969 and 21 winners have started on the pole, that doesn’t include those starting inside the top-five in that time either. The pace of pole winners winning however has picked up recently with five of the last 10 winners starting atop the grid. Three of the last 10 have started in the double-digits including two from 12th. The five races before the last 10 all had winners from starting spots of 10, 17, 17, 13, and 19.
Though winners have come from the double-digits in recent history, that doesn’t mean that moving up in the field is all that easy in general here. It is typically a single-groove track and one that makes passing very hard to pull off as evidenced by just three drivers with a +6 or better position differential in the field over the last three or more races. That being said though this week could be a different story with a few guys that showed speed in race practice after qualifying poorly on Friday who should make appearances in your lineups, and I will detail them below for you.
Ford has been the most dominant manufacturer at Michigan, being that it’s in Ford’s backyard, with 36 wins at the track. Roush-Fenway Racing has the most wins with 13 while the Wood Brothers are a close second with 11 and Hendrick Motorsports with eight.
With this being an intermediate style track and the race consisting of 200 laps, chasing laps led and fastest laps as the bonuses makes some sense, but that lap total is still lower than most other intermediate tracks run. In DraftKings there is a total 150 dominator points available between fastest laps and laps led and in FanDuel for you lineup there is a total of 120 bonus points between laps completed and laps led with really only 20 points to get split for leading laps. That’s not much to bank on to boost the score so focusing on the guys who can keep their positions or move up some, and try and nail down the guy who will lead the most laps on Sunday is the way to go.
Playbook
Kevin Harvick
DK: $12,200 FD: $12,700
Harvick has two top-fives, two top-10s, four top-15s, 82 laps led, and 60 fastest laps while posting the highest average driver rating in the last four races at 116.1. While he doesn’t have a win in the last 10 races here, he does have seven top-fives (best in the field) and 223 laps led (second most in the field) and his 176 fastest laps are tied for the high mark there too. He will start third on Sunday and has shown single-lap and long run speed to stay in the top-five throughout the race but not enough to be the dominant car in terms of leading the most laps. At this price point he is more attractive on DK than FD as guys with more upside are substantially less on FanDuel. Works for either lineup though.
Kyle Busch
DK: $11,900 FD: $12,200
Busch has a top-five and three top-10s in the last four races here with 54 laps led and 57 fastest laps. However there are a few downsides in that his top-15 rate is at 70% which is far below anyone else thats in or near the elite class of drivers and his average driver rating of 96 is a bit less than where we’re used to seeing it. Over the last 10 races he doesn’t look that great either with an average finish of 24.5 in that span with just one top-five and three top-10s and 64 each of laps led and fastest laps. On the single runs this weeks he has shown top-five speed in each session that he’s run but only middling 10-lap speeds. He will start second and he’s been very quick nearly every where this year including finishing P4 at the June race but he’s not a lock for a cash lineup in this one.
Martin Truex Jr.
DK: $11,700 FD: $12,500
Truex, like his big three cohorts, isn’t terribly great at this track recently with one top-five and two top-10s but he does do well in laps led with 126 and fastest laps at 127 (most in the field) in the last four races. In the last 10 races he has three top-fives (all runner-ups) and four top-10s with 136 laps led and 176 fastest laps. Just looking at his practice times also leaves a question mark next to his name as he ran 11th in first practice in Q trim and then qualified P7 before running 17th in the practice most similar to race conditions without showing long run speed at any of them. I have faith in Cole Pearn and Truex to make adjustments where necessary but he is still a GPP only play for me.
Kyle Larson
DK: $10,600 FD: $11,800
Ah Kyle Larson. The guy who practically owns Michigan over the last four races comes in at fourth-most expensive on both sites this week. His three wins, three top-fives, and 140 laps led are best in the field and his 7.8 average finish is second only to Chase Elliott in that span. While a single-groove track doesn’t really seem like his kind of place, he specializes in finding space on the track that no one else can run. At practice he ran inside the top-five and near the top-10 at each session and in happy hour ran the third best 10-lap average, just a tick below Ryan Blaney’s mark. He will start P17 on Sunday and with that much speed and history here, it’s impossible to leave him off a roster this week, also not to mention his price tag is $1,100 and $400 less than any of the big three on both sites. Cash or GPP play for sure.
Denny Hamlin
DK: $10,200 FD: $10,100
Denny is on the pole again this week, for the second in a row, after running first in Friday’s practice and posting the fastest lap in each of the three rounds of qualifying. However Saturday rolled around and he could only ran as good as seventh best in the final session and P9 in the first, abbreviated, session and only the fifth best 10-lap average. His recent history here shows a top-five, two top-10s, three top-15s, 16 laps led, and 18 fastest laps. Not much improvement is visible over a 10 race history either and so despite what I mentioned about pole winners in the intro, it’s hard to play him in anything other than a GPP format.
Joey Logano
DK: $9,900 FD: $10,000
Logano has one top-five and three top-10s in the last four races with 24 laps led and nine fastest laps as well. The only blemish in that span was a 28th place finish in this race last year. In fact that’s his only blemish in the last 10 races as he has nine top-10s in that span including two wins and five top-fives with 335 laps led (the most in the field) and 128 fastest laps (second best). This week he qualified P9 after running top-five in single lap speeds in all three practices. The downside is his long-run speed is only so-so to this point and that could leave him susceptible to moving backwards a touch. He works for a cash or GPP lineup given his history and top-end speed.
Clint Bowyer
DK: $9,700 FD: $11,000
Bowyer does have a win here as he won back in June in a weather shortened race after a great drive to get passed his teammate in Kevin Harvick. However that’s the only highlight in his trips to Michigan as that’s his only top-20 finish in the last four and his only laps led were the eight he led in that race. In the last 10 races at MIS he has five top-10s but his average finish is still 18.5 (compared to 22.5 in the last four). He isn’t just on here because of the win but also because of the speed he’s shown this week both short and long run being inside the top-10 and five sometimes while qualifying P16. He is certainly a very intriguing play with that speed and starting spot combo but his price is better on DK than FD as he is in play in both.
Brad Keselowski
DK: $9,500 FD: $10,400
Keselowski is generally one of the favorites here because it’s his home track and he drives a Ford which is the winningest make at the track. However his history shows a mixed bag with a top-five and two-top-10s in the last four races while leading 121 laps and being in the top-15 92% of the time (the second highest mark in the field). His last 10 trips to his home track have brought three top-fives and seven top-10s with 160 laps led and 90 fastest laps. Brad qualified 18th and ran slightly better than that in the first and third practices while showing 10-lap average speed around there too. His price is more comfortable on FD than DK but still remains more of a GPP play than a cash simply because of the lack of dominant speed this week.
Chase Elliott
DK: $8,900 FD: $10,600
This has been a big week for Chase coming off his first career win at the Cup level and the haze may have shown up a bit with their qualifying effort and the general lack of top speed missing from the car. The 9-car posted the 21st best qualifying effort on Friday evening after running P14 in that trim at practice. His race trim setups have been changed a couple of times all while running 11th and 18th in single lap speeds. He hasn’t shown long-run speed at all this week so that’s an unknown too. With all that being said it is a track that he’s done very well at before with three runner-ups and five total top-10s in his five career races here. The starting spot adds to his value but the speed or lack thereof is concerning and so he fits into a GPP setup more.
Ryan Blaney
DK: $8,700 FD: $9,800
Blaney has pretty solid stats here in the last four trips with a top-five, two top-10s, 15 laps led, and 32 fastest laps and a 99.1 average driver rating. This week he has been the fastest of the Penske cars running P4, P6, and P6 in practice while qualifying P8 and running P2 in 10-lap average with late arriving speed in laps 16-25. His speed is very good this week but with only two finishes at better than 14th there is still some risk associated with him. Overall he works for either.
Erik Jones
DK: $8,000 FD: $9,400
Another Michigander looking to snap the winless streak at their home track this week, In his three races at the Cup level here he has a top-five, a top-10, and three top-15s with five laps led and 18 fastest laps. This week he qualified P4 while running top-10 in the race trim practices on Saturday and having the best 10-lap averages in both practices by nearly a half a mile an hour each time. In the last five races overall this year he has been nearly as good and consistent as his teammate Kyle Busch and now he’s shown equal or better speed and a cheaper price making him a near no-brainer cash or GPP play while saving a couple grand on each site.
Daniel Suarez
DK: $7,800 FD: $8,400
Suarez has had an interesting week at Michigan in that he ran the third fastest lap in pre-qualifying practice and then hit the wall during qualifying and failed to turn in a complete lap, thus slotting him 40th. He served a penalty for the only 15 minutes of green track time in the Saturday morning session and then ran the 12th best lap in his fixed up primary car in the happy hour session. His history here shows three laps led, five fastest laps, and no top-20s with an average finish of 30.3 in his three races at MIS. His starting spot is an automatic reason to play him but so is the fact that he ran the fourth fastest 10-lap average in the final practice. There is nothing to lose by playing him and a whole lot to gain. He’s a must play at a mid-tier price on both sites.
Jamie McMurray
DK: $7,600 FD: $8,000
McMurray might be the sleeper this week as he has four top-10s in the last four races making him and Chase the only two to do that feat. There are no laps led or really any fastest laps but the finishes are a great bonus for a guy that’s this far down the price list. The driver of the 1-car qualified P15 for Sunday and ran around there in single-lap speeds on Saturday but had the eighth-best 10-lap average just a half a mile an hour slower than his teammate in the 42-car. With the quality speed, finishes, and price all working in his favor, he’s a great play in either lineup.
William Byron
DK: $6,800 FD: $7,700
The youngest member of the Hendrick garage has started to put things together the last few races with three top-15s in the last five including two top-10s. This week he has shown very good speed once more running P2 and P10 in two race trim practices after qualifying P20. His 10-lap speed places him 11th about a mile an hour behind Kevin Harvick for 6th. His lone Cup series race in June saw him finish P13 and his lone Xfinity race brought a runner-up finish. He won’t lead laps from this far back but the ability to move through the field is there for him as is the speed to do it. At this price point he is very workable into cash or GPP lineups but he is a strong cash play,
Alex Bowman
DK: $6,600 FD: $8,200
Much like Byron he is really putting things together in what amounts to his first full-time Cup season with four top-15s in the last five races and here he has a top-20 in two races he’s run here total. The 88-car was also the only HMS to make it to the round of 12 in qualifying and his setup is being used by Chase Elliott as well. His practice speeds of P7 and P3 in race trim show that he can move up from his P10 qualifying spot and he should be in consideration for GPP lineups.
Trevor Bayne
DK: $5,800 FD: $6,600
Bayne is in the car for this Michigan race after not running in the June race. Bayne has a top-five and two top-20s in the last three races here including a P5 in this race a year ago. His +8.7 PD in that span is second only to Ty Dillon and is his major benefit to being on a roster. Bayne showed speed around where he qualified in the mid-20s and should be able to sneak into the top-20 if the trend of moving up continues. At this price he’s a salary relief on both sites for both formats.
Ty Dillon
DK: $5,700 FD: $5,500
The younger Dillon has three races in the last four at MIS and has a top-20 to show for it along with the best PD in the filed at +13.7. His five total races here have seen him finish P14, P24, P20, P21, and P21 while starting no better than P31 in the last three. Dillon qualified P27 this week and ran as well as P20 in the race trim practices. We’re only going for PD from a guy this low and that’s precisely what Dillon has a history of providing out of this price slot.