One of the favorite tracks on the schedule is on tap this week for the Go Bowling at The Glen MENCS race at Watkins Glen. Watkins Glen is the second road course on the schedule for the Cup Series but is a different track compared to it’s brethren in Sonoma Raceway from earlier in the year. Sonoma is widely regarded as the more technical layout and Watkins Glen is considered the speedier one. There are seven turns at The Glen in total and five of them are right-handers with only one, the Carousel, being close to what is seen on a standard oval though going the opposite direction. There are a couple of spots on the track that will see speeds hit 180+ mph and that never happens at Sonoma. The elevation change is also less at Watkins Glen though it isn’t a flat course at all with an 80-foot climb in the middle of the esses that gets your car feeling loose in Turn 3.

As was pointed out in the Track Breakdown piece, passing here is tricky to do but there are passing zones on the course if you can set them up properly. The Bus Stop or Inner Loop directly before the Carousel is one as is Turn 6 and Turn 7 heading into the front stretch but that’s about it and again it takes some setup to get the driver in front to leave the gap for the pursuing driver to drive through and complete the pass. There are five drivers in the field with a position differential of +6 or better in the last four races, and each of those drivers have run in the last four for a full weighted stat. Each of the last six races have produced a different winner here so it also is a pretty hard track to repeat at with only four drivers pulling off the feat in the 35 races run here before this weekend.

As noted in the Practice Notes article the tire fall off here can be pretty well managed and so expecting big gains from new tires isn’t as big a thing here as it is at other more well-worn surfaces like Atlanta or Auto Club or Chicago. With that and the shortness of the race, there are few scheduled pit stops necessary this weekend with it being able to be done in 2-3 stops depending on if there are cautions or a counter strategy to gain track position. The 90 laps is all there is on the schedule, with each lap being 2.45 miles in length, that gives you the 355 Km distance in the full race. The stages are 20-20-50 for Sunday and so pit strategy will be key to try and get stage points in the first and second stages. Speaking of expecting cautions, you shouldn’t because there just aren’t many here in general as most races have had five cautions here but last year’s had three including the two for the stage cautions. That doesn’t lengthen the race very much to pull off different strategies which compounds the passing issues on the laps.

The 90 laps don’t allow for many dominator points, laps led and fastest laps, so the scores should be lower this week than in races past. However just because the passing is hard and the bonus points are lower, the same general strategies hold with playing the pole sitter in GPP contests, especially with the history of the last six races and the pole sitter finishing no better than P7, and that was Kyle Busch last year. Prior to that the pole sitter hadn’t finished better than P18 so that’s substantial drop in PD points from them.

 

Playbook

Kevin Harvick

DK: $12,100  FD: $12,500

Harvick has been dominant all season but this track might be his kryptonite of sorts with one top-five, two top-10s, three top-20s, 29 laps led, and 12 fastest laps in the last four races here but does tend to move backwards a bit on average. In the last 10 he has one top-five, four top-10s, and seven top-15s in that span with about the same laps led and fastest laps. This week in practice he has shown middling speed on single-lap runs but slightly better on the lap averages and long runs. He starts P16 on Sunday but may not have the car or speed this week to move much passed 10th so his price is a bit steep for what he offers, especially in cash lineups. He can be used in GPPs however for an attempt at PD points.

Kyle Busch

DK: $11,800  FD: $12,300

Busch’s last win at the track came five years ago but in the last four he has a top-five and three top-10s with 28 laps led and 53 fastest laps, the most in the field in that span plus his 104.9 average rating is the best as well (Suarez has only run one race so his 113.1 isn’t weighted). In the last 10 however, Busch has the best average finish of 7.9 is the best as is his two wins and five top-fives, and nine top-10s and 216 laps led and his 120 fastest laps. He was on fire at both practices in terms of long run speeds and single lap speeds and as compared to other drivers he was able to keep his lap times nearly identical over 15+ laps. Starting P2 just adds a bit to his value and as a cheaper option on both sites he’s a must across the board this week.

Martin Truex Jr.

DK: $11,500  FD: $12,700

Truex Jr won this race a year ago after it turned into a fuel mileage race, though he was near the front of the pack all day as well having started third. That win is one of his two top-10s in the last four with two other top-15s as well and 30 laps led. His 101.8 average driver rating places him in with four others that crack the 100-mark in the last four races. While he doesn’t have any more laps led in the last 10 nor more than the one win, he does have four top-fives and six top-10s during that time which is second to only Busch. This week he has shown solid speed at practice and is just a tick slower over the long run than Kyle and he will start fourth. Going for a third-straight road course win just adds to his cache. The price is better on DK than FD but still quite workable in both.

Denny Hamlin

DK: $10,300  FD: $10,300

Hamlin is one of the four drivers with a win here in the last four plus he has an additional top-five and top-10 too but that’s about it for the 11-car. His 10 laps led and four fastest laps are barely worth mentioning as is his middle-of-the-road 88.0 average driver rating. However he does have four top-10s in the last 10 which is respectable but not great. Hamlin ran P7 and P2 in practice on single-lap speeds and P6 and P7 in average speeds across the session before qualifying on the pole, besting Busch by .06 seconds. Earlier I described the history of pole sitters here, but there is potential for Hamlin to lead quite a bit before falling back to around P5 by the end of the race. He is a strictly GPP play though is price is nice on both sites.

Clint Bowyer

DK: $9,800  FD: $10,200

Bowyer is one of the drivers with a +6.5 PD over the last four races to go along with a top-five and two top-10s. He’s finished in the top-10 half the time in the last 10 and the top-15 60% but there are no laps led to speak of over either span. Bowyer will roll off the line in 19th on Sunday, with is about where he typically starts here, but ran P4 in the first practice and P4 and P5 in the average speeds in each session respectively, even after having to switch a transmission and fixing an O-ring. He won’t lead laps or win, but he does have the speed to finish P10-12 which gives nice PD upside on a track where it’s hard to find.

Joey Logano

DK: $9,100  FD: $11,500

I touched on the Team Penske cars in the Drivers To Watch section of the Track Breakdown this week and Logano is a major reason why. He has a win, two top-fives, three top-10s, and the second-best average finish of 8.3 in the last four races. His teammate Brad Keselowski has the most laps led in that span at 75 compared to Logano’s nine but Keselowski’s speed was really lacking this week so no other mention here. Logano will start P6 in the grid and has long-run speed to stay there throughout the race. Why his price difference is so great between the two sites is unclear but he is a better deal on DK as he’s out of the elite range.

Jimmie Johnson

DK: $8,700  FD: $8,900

Now going strictly on the last four races here, it’s hard to see why JJ is in the playbook since he has just one finish inside the top-20 and six laps led with a history of going backwards by 20 spots per race on average. However his last 10 here shows five top-10s and his long-run speed this week especially in the final practice speak to his upside. Johnson will start P13 after missing the top-12 in qualifying by .008 seconds and running P6 in single-lap speeds. A decent GPP play is what he equates too.

Aric Almirola

DK: $8,500  FD: $9,000

Almirola has two top-20s and a PD of +7.3 in the last four races here, without being in top-flight equipment. This week he’s run P14 and P3 in single-lap speeds but didn’t really show long-run speed at practice having not run multiple laps in a row in either session. Almirola has made big improvements in his road course abilities this year and finished 8th at Sonoma plus ran the Xfinity race on Saturday at Watkins Glen and finished P5. He still doesn’t have the solid finishes we’d like to see for a cash selection but the upside for a top-five finish is still there and that makes for a good GPP play.

AJ Allmendinger

DK: $8,300  FD: $10,000

Allmendinger is widely known for his road course expertise and despite his price jumping big-time for Sonoma several weeks ago, he’s actually more expensive this week on both sites. His only Cup series win came here four years ago and he has three top-10s with 51 laps led since then. He is outside the top-20 in the points standings and needs a win to clinch a spot in the Chase and this is clearly his last best chance to make that happen. That being said, sheer will power can’t get you to drive a car much faster than it’s set up to go and Allmendinger has been struggling with speed and setup this week at practice. He ran quickly at first practice but badly at second practice before qualifying P8. He’s a GPP option after finishing second in the Xfinity race on Saturday and a better one on DK than FD.

Chase Elliott

DK: $8,100  FD: $9,800

Chase has run two races at Watkins Glen in his career with two top-15s to show for his efforts, however this year his road course skills have grown with a fourth place finish at Sonoma and showing immense speed at practice this week. He gave Kyle Busch a run for his money in the second session, finishing P1 on the board and then finishing just .003 seconds behind him in qualifying. With a starting spot of P3 and running P2 in 10-lap average in the final session for laps 14-23, just .11 mph slower than Kyle Busch who ran his on laps 1-10, he has very good upside to lead laps and challenge for a win on Sunday he makes a nice mid-tier salary cash game play.

Jamie McMurray

DK: $7,700  FD: $8,400

McMurray is in the same boat as the aforementioned Allmendinger in that he needs a win to have any shot at the playoffs but he too has a solid run at road courses in his career. In the last four races here specifically he has a top-10 and three top-15s with two top-10s and five top-15s in the last 10 races here. This week he has shown good long-run speeds but also ran P8 and P7 single-lap speeds before qualifying P15. He has better consistent speeds than anyone else who’s as desperate as McMurray is and that becomes intriguing at this price point for either lineup format.

Daniel Suarez

DK: $7,500  FD: $9,200

Suarez might only have run one race here in the Cup series but that one race resulted in a P3 finish last year with 14 laps led and a 96% top-15 rate. He also ran one race at the Xfinity level and finished P4 after starting P6. Suarez qualified 23rd for Sunday after running sixth and 15th in practice but with no showing of long-run speed. The 19-car can move up pretty easily with that history and speed and the price on both sites is right for either style of lineup.

Kasey Kahne

DK: $7,300  FD: $7,700

Kahne has a top-15 and three top-20s in the last four races here and that’s where the good stops. His 64.2 average driver rating is pedestrian to sub-par and the 25% top-15 rate isn’t grate either. But he did run the sixth best lap average in the first practice and the eighth best single-lap speed in the final session before qualifying P10 for Sunday. Kahne is strictly a GPP play this week as he seeks a win to clinch a playoff spot.

Matt Kenseth

DK: $6,900  FD: $7,900

Kenseth is the only driver with four top-10s in the last four races in the field is tied for the best average finish in that span with a mark of 6.3. Nearly no laps led or fastest laps in that span mean he’s good at running in the the top-10 but not up front. This week in the new ride he ran P27 and P21 at practice without showing long-run speed before qualifying P28 for the race. Given his history and the improvements he’s shown the last few weeks he is a fairly low-risk GPP play toward the bottom of the salary list.

Erik Jones

DK: $6,700  FD: $8,700

Jones, like Suarez, has raced once here and locked down a top-10 in that race with a 90.0 driver rating. In the two Xfinity races he ran he finished P8 and P12 giving him more experience at the track than you may think. Jones ran in the top-10 in lap averages at both practices and fastest in single lap speeds in the first practice. Starting P9 with two top-10s in three career races makes him a nice play for both formats especially at the DraftKings price.

William Byron

DK: $6,600  FD: $7,300

Byron hasn’t run a Cup series race at the track but has run at it in the Xfinity series before and finished 10th after starting 17th. Practice speeds show he ran P20 and P4 in single-lap speeds but he doesn’t show anywhere on the long-run charts. Qualifying 17th isn’t far off from his Xfinity start and if he can string together the long-run speed there’s a shot at moving up pretty nicely. A cheaper flier is what he amounts to this week for a GPP lineup.

Alex Bowman

DK: $6,500  FD: $8,200

Bowman has run here twice in the Cup series and has a solid +5 PD but no notable finishes. In the Xfinity series he’s run here once and moved from 19th to 13th by the end of the race. Bowman also ran P12 in final practice after running 26th in opening practice while still trying to find the balance in the car. His qualifying spot of 24th is better than he’s had previously, but so is the car and the team around him. Like his teammate above, he’s a cheap flier for a GPP lineup in the hopes he can get a top-15 out of the day.

Michael McDowell

DK: $6,100  FD: $6,800

A top-15 and three top-20s isn’t bad for a guy this far down the salary list this week and neither is the speed he’s shown either. He’s run ninth and fifth in single-lap speeds and was just .01 mph slower than Busch in the lap averages in the final practice though he ran half as many laps as Busch did. McDowell has good history on road courses and showed nicely at Sonoma plus he qualified 12th for this weekend’s race. He is also a driving school instructor on road course for a top driving school in the country. Expect him to be the highest-owned cheap guy in every format on both sites except for maybe the guy listed below him in this playbook.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

DK: $5,700  FD: $6,400

Two top-20s is all Stenhouse has to show for his last four races here and he’s not known as a road course racer by any stretch, however his price tag is very intriguing this week. He ran 11th and 9th in single-lap speeds and ran ninth in the lap averages for both sessions with nearly identical average speeds across both as well but then went out and qualified 25th. That kind of speed, price, and PD upside is hard to look past for any format.