Road racing returns to NASCAR’s Cup series this week with a trip to the Finger Lakes region of Upstate New York. Watkins Glen International is the host for the Go Bowling at The Glen on Sunday and the 90 laps of left and right turns it will bring. This is the only trip to the track this season and it’s the last road course until the playoffs and the Roval at Charlotte Motor Speedway meaning this is the last best chance for a win for the drivers that excel at this type of race.

The differences between Sonoma and Watkins Glen are almost immediately apparent starting with the number of turns. Watkins Glen has eight turns in a lap with five being right-handers and Sonoma has 11. The other major difference is the style of driving on the two courses with WGI having higher speeds and slightly less technical driving while Sonoma is the opposite of that. Even though it is a road course, it does even out the playing field with it’s style since drivers that are very good at carrying momentum through turns and not wearing down tires too quickly also have a fair shot here. With similar to compare it to, the “Similar Tracks” section of the breakdown has been left off this week.

Track position is perhaps the most important thing here in order to secure the win as just nine times in the 35 races run here has the winner come from 10th or worse in the starting grid and it’s happened just three times 2003 with Robby Gordon winning from 14th in ’03, Tony Stewart winning from 13th in ’09, and Joey Logano pulling it off from 16th in ’15. There are five drivers with a position differential of at least +6 in the last four races in the field this week. The other thing to keep in mind is the reduced laps mean less bonus or dominator points available to everyone in the field and thus the scores will likely be low this week. Last year there were just three drivers over 50 points on both sites and the best score on DraftKings was 64 by Martin Truex Jr. and 55.5 on FanDuel by Matt Kenseth followed Martin Truex Jr.’s 55.4. Just keep those factors in your mind when making rosters and looking through the data.

Only one race in the 32 races that had cautions (the first three didn’t have them called) has seen double-digit cautions and the most common number is five, though last year only saw three (including the two stage cautions), so there is a lot of green flag racing that happens in the 90 laps of the race. Because of the green flag laps, pit strategy is important and that came true last year as well as the final laps were a fuel mileage battle with a few key contenders running out before completing the white flag lap and giving Martin Truex Jr. the win. If the same thing plays out this year the advantage goes to who pits the latest without giving up much in the way of track position.

Track Data

Last Four Races at Watkins Glen International

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
AJ Allmendinger45.8119.51233351
Joey Logano411.811.88.3123339
Denny Hamlin411.813.5141222210
Martin Truex Jr411.010.511.51123330
Matt Kenseth413.39.56.3024442
Kurt Busch413.510.86.3023443
Kyle Busch48.31413.80133328
Brad Keselowski410.011150123375
Kevin Harvick410.81414.80122329
Clint Bowyer420.516.514012230
Kyle Larson48.314.817011220
Daniel Suarez15.0630111114
Jamie McMurray412.51619001330
Ryan Blaney217.51513.5001122
Jimmie Johnson48.818.326.8001116
Erik Jones16.01110001110
Chase Elliott210.01313000229
Kasey Kahne423.821.322.5000133
Michael McDowell421.32222.8000130
Paul Menard425.523.821.3000120
Ryan Newman415.320.524.3000120
Chris Buescher324.728.326000110
Aric Almirola427.826.520.5000020
Ricky Stenhouse Jr425.82628000020
Ty Dillon124.02319000010
David Ragan425.52125.5000010
Austin Dillon421.525.327.3000010
Cole Whitt424.829.531.5000002
BJ McLeod00.000000000
Bubba Wallace00.000000000
Parker Kligerman00.000000000
Ross Chastain00.000000000
Spencer Gallagher00.000000000
William Byron00.000000000
Matt DiBenedetto333.025.329.3000000
Landon Cassill437.330.830.8000000
Alex Bowman237.53432.5000000

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPosLaps LedHigh toLow to
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiffPts./RaceAvg RatingAvg Rating
AJ Allmendinger1576%360100.1129.983.7-3.703.1929.816.4
Joey Logano1677%36096.2118.271.73.500.562224.5
Denny Hamlin472%36088112.672.9-2.200.6324.615.1
Martin Truex Jr3270%360101.8139.574.7-0.501.8837.727.1
Matt Kenseth683%360101.1111.495.27.000.1310.35.9
Kurt Busch682%36097117.2837.200.1920.214
Kyle Busch5374%339104.912465-5.501.7519.139.9
Brad Keselowski3779%355102.9119.976.6-5.004.691726.3
Kevin Harvick1260%35392.9132.768.4-4.001.8139.824.5
Clint Bowyer646%36079.69068.96.500.0010.410.7
Kyle Larson1558%3598299.474.3-8.700.0017.47.7
Daniel Suarez196%90113.1113.1113.12.003.5000
Jamie McMurray166%35682.592.659.3-6.500.0010.123.2
Ryan Blaney253%18079.9105.554.34.000.2525.625.6
Jimmie Johnson451%32275.895.559.9-18.000.3819.715.9
Erik Jones076%9092.292.292.2-4.000.0000
Chase Elliott862%18091.5103.179.9-3.001.1311.611.6
Kasey Kahne025%34864.284.445.21.300.1920.219
Michael McDowell026%32561.974.555.7-1.500.0012.66.2
Paul Menard126%35759.472.337.74.200.0012.921.7
Ryan Newman026%32566.175.756.8-9.000.009.69.3
Chris Buescher019%26751.374.828-1.300.0023.523.3
Aric Almirola03%36061.270.249.27.300.00912
Ricky Stenhouse Jr04%3215562.745.3-2.200.007.79.7
Ty Dillon00%9054.954.954.95.000.0000
David Ragan025%35363.281.843.70.000.0018.619.5
Austin Dillon016%35853.866.435.2-5.800.0012.618.6
Cole Whitt09%27049.664.834.3-6.700.1315.215.3
BJ McLeod00%00000.00 00
Bubba Wallace00%00000.00 00
Parker Kligerman00%00000.00 00
Ross Chastain00%00000.00 00
Spencer Gallagher00%00000.00 00
William Byron00%00000.00 00
Matt DiBenedetto015%26351.765.538.83.700.0013.812.9
Landon Cassill03%34637.843.731.76.500.005.96.1
Alex Bowman00%17535.941.330.45.000.005.45.5

 

Top-15 Drivers Over the Last 10 Races at Watkins Glen

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Kyle Busch1068.67.925999216
Martin Truex Jr1013.110.211.11468830
AJ Allmendinger99.812.49.31368859
Joey Logano915.116.214135569
Denny Hamlin1015.916.3201244510
Brad Keselowski81211.610.804567114
Kurt Busch1014.714.512.20378826
Matt Kenseth1019.713.710.9025992
Clint Bowyer1019.515.314.1025671
Jimmie Johnson107.414.117.50156613
Kevin Harvick1016.315.814.50147837
Kyle Larson48.314.817011220
Daniel Suarez15630111114
Jamie McMurray1012.618.220.5002576
Ryan Blaney217.51513.5001122

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPos.Laps LedRating
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts/RaceRange
Kyle Busch12085%881118.4145.165-1.905.4080.1
Martin Truex Jr3875%90299.5139.567.22.000.7572.3
AJ Allmendinger2368%81297.1129.972.70.501.6457.2
Joey Logano1655%79185.1118.258.91.100.2559.3
Denny Hamlin857%82282.4112.661.6-4.100.2551
Brad Keselowski6674%717102.8129.153.41.203.5675.7
Kurt Busch2668%84991.8117.251.92.500.6565.3
Matt Kenseth765%90288.4111.476.18.800.0535.3
Clint Bowyer757%90183.8109.560.55.400.0349
Jimmie Johnson2765%86489.5113.459.9-10.100.3353.5
Kevin Harvick1755%87387.8132.750.21.800.9382.5
Kyle Larson1558%3598299.474.3-8.700.0025.1
Daniel Suarez196%90113.1113.1113.12.003.500
Jamie McMurray653%80080.4109.150.7-7.900.1558.4
Ryan Blaney253%18079.9105.554.34.000.2551.2

 

Momentum

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopPosAvg.
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sDiff.Rating
Kyle Busch513.49.68.2244445.2106.8
Martin Truex Jr5127.45.2144556.8112
Kevin Harvick512.47.26.4144456115.5
Erik Jones51012.2712445392
Alex Bowman51015.214.601344-4.682.4
Chase Elliott57.21115.601234-8.495.3
Ryan Blaney511.813.415.801234-492.2
Kyle Larson520.412.815012335.491.5
Aric Almirola518.214.217.6012220.690.5
Brad Keselowski54.814.823.601222-18.885.1
Clint Bowyer513.612.41701133-3.491.6
Daniel Suarez512.618.41701133-4.472.2
AJ Allmendinger519.824.221.401122-1.653.5
Chris Buescher52423.421.4011122.659.2
Kasey Kahne529.421.821011128.456.1

 

Points Changes at 2017 Race

DraftKings

 17 RaceSeasonDK Pts +/-
DriverTotalAvg DK Pts.Season AVG
Matt Kenseth55.522.533.0
Daniel Suarez4726.6420.4
Martin Truex Jr6450.0414.0
Chris Buescher3925.7413.3
Kurt Busch5038.1711.8
Ryan Blaney45.534.4411.1
Michael McDowell3423.9210.1
Denny Hamlin4739.347.7
Ty Dillon3023.46.6
AJ Allmendinger3326.456.6
Clint Bowyer4843.344.7
Kasey Kahne3127.213.8
Paul Menard2925.943.1
Matt DiBenedetto2522.522.5
Jamie McMurray25.523.482.0
Ricky Stenhouse Jr2624.831.2
Erik Jones3031.44-1.4
David Ragan2123.33-2.3
Brad Keselowski29.532.49-3.0
Chase Elliott30.7534.54-3.8
Ryan Newman1724.15-7.2
Austin Dillon1927.8-8.8
Aric Almirola3141.26-10.3
Landon Cassill418.17-14.2
Kyle Busch47.2564.38-17.1
Cole Whitt225.78-23.8
Joey Logano12.538.75-26.3
Kevin Harvick30.567.47-37.0
Kyle Larson341.31-38.3
Jimmie Johnson-435.07-39.1
  Avg. +/-12.8

 

FanDuel

 17 Race18 SeasonFD Pts +/-
DriverTotalAvg FD Pts.Season AVG
Matt Kenseth55.540.3115.19
Daniel Suarez49.445.973.43
Michael McDowell3940.29-1.29
Ryan Blaney46.247.65-1.45
Chris Buescher4243.88-1.88
Kurt Busch5052.48-2.48
Martin Truex Jr55.458.70-3.30
AJ Allmendinger4044.88-4.88
Denny Hamlin49.554.57-5.07
Kasey Kahne35.544.21-8.71
Clint Bowyer48.557.60-9.10
Ty Dillon33.543.33-9.83
Jamie McMurray33.544.18-10.68
Erik Jones3850.76-12.76
Paul Menard33.546.96-13.46
Brad Keselowski33.547.56-14.06
Ricky Stenhouse Jr3145.52-14.52
Matt DiBenedetto26.542.16-15.66
Chase Elliott33.451.42-18.02
David Ragan2543.90-18.90
Ryan Newman2445.13-21.13
Kyle Busch42.164.51-22.41
Aric Almirola3355.44-22.44
Austin Dillon24.547.61-23.11
Landon Cassill10.836.47-25.67
Kevin Harvick34.563.28-28.78
Cole Whitt11.143.89-32.79
Joey Logano20.556.77-36.27
Kyle Larson16.553.38-36.88
Jimmie Johnson11.551.33-39.83
    
  Avg. +/-15.80

 

Top-10 and Bottom-10 Driver Values

DraftKings

RankDriverValueRankDriverValue
1Kevin Harvick5.5837Spencer Gallagher0.00
2Kyle Busch5.4636BJ McLeod2.20
3Cole Whitt4.9635Jamie McMurray3.05
4Aric Almirola4.8534AJ Allmendinger3.19
5Bubba Wallace4.7833Matt Kenseth3.26
6Erik Jones4.6932Ryan Newman3.55
7Alex Bowman4.5931Daniel Suarez3.55
8Clint Bowyer4.4230Brad Keselowski3.65
9Matt DiBenedetto4.4229Paul Menard3.65
10Chris Buescher4.3628William Byron3.66

 

FanDuel

RankDriverValueRankDriverValue
1Parker Kligerman9.0337Spencer Gallagher0.00
2Cole Whitt8.7836Brad Keselowski4.32
3Ross Chastain7.9735AJ Allmendinger4.49
4Ty Dillon7.8834Martin Truex Jr.4.62
5Matt DiBenedetto7.6733Joey Logano4.94
6Bubba Wallace7.5132Ryan Blaney4.96
7Landon Cassill7.2931Daniel Suarez5.00
8Austin Dillon7.2130Kurt Busch5.00
9Ricky Stenhouse Jr.7.1129Kevin Harvick5.06
10David Ragan7.0828Matt Kenseth5.10

 

Drivers To Watch This Week

Martin Truex Jr.: Truex, as mentioned above, won this race a year ago for his fourth win of the season (he’s already reached that this year) and he’s got two top-10s in the last four with 30 laps led (third best in the field) and 32 fastest laps (third best in the field). He is the most expensive driver on FanDuel this week but behind Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch on DraftKings despite being the only member of the big three to win here in the last five races. In the last 10 Truex is one of only three drivers with four or more top-fives and one of four with six or more top-10s. This weekend could be a weekend for him to notch the fifth win and get closer to the other two members of the big three.

Kyle Busch: Busch drove away from the field in the final restart last week to secure his sixth win of the season giving him two wins in the last five races in 2018. A Watkins Glen however it is a bit of a different story here recently with one top-five and three top-10s in the last four and 28 laps led (fifth in the field) and 53 fastest laps (most in the field) and the highest driver rating at 104.9 in that span. So while he doesn’t have the win, he’s got most everything else, however that history gets better when looking at the last 10. An average finish in the last four of 13.8 nearly cuts in half to 7.9 (best in the field), with two wins, five top-fives, nine top-10s, 216 laps led, and 120 fastest laps all of which are the best in the field easily in that span with both the laps led and fastest laps being nearly double the next closest.

Team Penske: Penkse drivers here in the last 10 team races combined ( four each of Logano and Keselowksi and two for Blaney) have a win (Logano), three top-fives (two for Logano, one Kesleowski), and six top-10s (three for Logano, two Keselowski, one Blaney) and 86 laps led with Keselowski leading 75 by himself. If you go out to the last 10, Logano has a win, three top-fives, five top-10s, nine laps led, and 16 fastest laps but Brad has an average finish of 10.8 (second best in the field) with four top-fives, five top-10s, 114 laps led and 66 fastest laps (both second best in that span). As a group they are very solid but the rankings I would give them would be Keselowski, then Logano, then Blaney.

AJ Allmendinger: Have you ever seen a driver so beside themselves as Allmendinger was after missing his shift at Sonoma earlier this year and subsequently blowing up his engine? I’d be hard pressed to think of one. Knowing that this is his last best chance to make the playoffs with a win, expect him to be on top of his game once more, as he has been in the past. Allmendinger sports a win, two top-fives, three top-10s and 51 laps led in the last four races at The Glen and in the last 10 he adds a top-five, three top-10s and eight more laps led to his four race totals. He is $8,300 on DraftKings and $10,000 on FanDuel which is the highest he’s been all season even higher than Sonoma by $300 on DK and $900 on FD which will limit his value unless he shows top flight speed.

Matt Kenseth: Kenseth continues to be in the car for Roush-Fenway again this week for his first road course of the year, having sat out Sonoma. Despite not having a win here in the last four, his average finish is better than the four drivers that do have wins at a very nice 6.3 in that span. Two top-fives and four top-10s are why. That’s about it for him though with just two laps led and six fastest laps, you’re going for finish and not much else. In the last 10 races the same holds true with two top-fives, five top-10s, and nine top-20s and practically the same laps led and fastest lap totals. If he can keep improving each week, as he has been this year (three top-20s in the last five races) he could have a sneaky good day after finishing second here a year ago and being a bit cheaper on both sites this week.