At the beginning of last month the NASCAR schedule came to the Pocono Mountains for the first time to race at The Tricky Triangle. Now it comes up for a second time. As the nickname describes, the shape of the track is a triangle with three turns instead of the standard four. The shape isn’t the only unique thing about the track, the length and banking are also different than most of the other tracks. Each lap is a 2.5-mile trip involving turns that are tilted at different degrees and have different radii to contend with. Turn 1 is banked at 14 degrees, Turn 2 (the Tunnel Turn) is banked at eight degrees and is the tightest of the turns, and Turn 3 is slanted at six degrees. This track has two of the longest straightaways in the NASCAR track rotation with the front stretch being the longest and the Long Pond straightaway being nearly as long as well.
Because of the length of the track, there are fewer dominator available in the race with just 160 laps as the ticketed amount to run. Passing here is possibly the hardest thing to do with aero and line on the track being of such import. Noted in the practice sessions today was that trying to pass a car in front of you can take about a second off your lap time for each lap it takes you to pass, simply because of the aero being taken off the front of the car. That being said there are five drivers in the field this week with at least a +6 position differential over the last four trips here.
Eight of the last nine winners have started in the top-10 starting spots, the only exception is Chris Buescher in the weather shortened July 2016 race when he started P22. Three times since the June 2012 race the winner has been the pole-sitter with it happening the last time in this race last year when Kyle Busch won from the pole.
The last several races have had single-digit cautions, even with stage cautions taken into account, so there aren’t many incidents nor are there many chances to employ a different pit strategy than most. Nineteen of the 39 drivers in the field have finished 596 or more laps in the last four races here out of the 618 total run, so with nearly half the field completing 96% of the laps it shows how few incidents actually happen.
Playbook
Kyle Busch
DK: $11,800 FD: $12,500
Kyle won this race a year ago and has showed well again this week in terms of speed. Two top-fives, and four top-10s complete his placements in the last four races here, plus he’s the only driver to lead more than 100 laps in that span, 188 total, with 89 fastest laps (also the most in the field). His average rating of 123.5 is just a tick higher than Kevin Harvick’s 123.4 for the best in the field as is his 95% top-15 rate. With all those stats in his favor there is a reason he’s atop the salaries on both sites. He qualified P2 originally but will start in 28th after failing post-qualifying inspection and his time was disallowed.
Martin Truex Jr.
DK: $11,500 FD: $12,500
Truex nailed down the win last time there was racing at Pocono. Now he has one of the fastest cars again this week in practice despite qualifying P14 for the race. He has two top-fives and three top-10s with 83 laps led and 85 fastest laps in the last four races and his 103.3 average rating is fourth-best in the field. But with him qualifying in 8th there is big-time upside for him to get to the front of the pack and possibly go back-to-back for the first time since Dale Earnhardt Jr. did just that in 2014.
Kevin Harvick
DK: $11,200 FD: $12,500
Harvick has never won here, one of only two tracks he’s yet to find victory lane at, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been fast. An average finish of third and four straight top-fives with 96 laps led illustrate how fast he’s been, he even finished second in June to Martin Truex Jr. This weekend his car has been by far the best on the track at both practices where in the first practice he was a full 1.2 mph faster than the second best car in the lap average. He was also the best five-lap, 10-lap, and 15-lap average car in the second practice before qualifying on the pole, until he failed post-qualifying inspection. He has been moved to 29th starting spot but needs to be in nearly every lineup you play this weekend for tremendous upside.
Kyle Larson
DK: $10,400 FD: $11,500
Larson has a top-five and three top-10s in the last four races with 46 laps led as this style of track fits his driving style pretty well. At practice he has shown solid speed but not outstanding over both the short and long run. He originally qualified P4 but will bump back to 32nd after, like both Busch and Harvick, the 42-car failed post-qualifying inspection. With the PD upside he is in the realm for cash lineups.
Denny Hamlin
DK: $10,000 FD: $10,100
Hamlin originally was slated to start seventh but with five of the first seven cars failing inspection, Hamlin is now on the outside pole. He has one top-five and two top-10s in the last four races with 19 laps run up front and 18 fastest laps which doesn’t jump out at you the speed this week has. Running P4 in first practice and P2 in the 10-lap average in the final practice shows the 11-car has the ability to stay up front. Hamlin still needs a win to lock into the playoffs and this might be his best chance to nail it down.
Brad Keselowski
DK: $9,400 FD: $11,000
Six straight top-five finishes is what Keselowski brings to the table here at Pocono. No one else can boast that stat. His average finish of 4.3 in the last four is second-best in the field and he also brings 35 laps led and 43 fastest laps as well. This week he has shown top-10 speed in the short run but it’s hard to tell exactly what his long run speed is like right now. Keselowski has also benefitted from the change in starting spot after qualifying where he now rolls off P4. He has the speed to stay there but likely not do much more and so I am expecting simply just a good solid finish points type of day from him.
Clint Bowyer
DK: $9,100 FD: $10,000
Bowyer was another one of the cars that failed inspection and was sent to the back of the pack to start 31st. However the increases his value by a lot as he ran P5 and P6 in practice in single-lap speeds but in the top-five in long run 10-lap average speeds. HIs position differential combined with a high finishing spot should make for a great points day from Bowyer. The driver of the 14-car does have a checkered history here with just five top-10s in the last 15 races but he does have an average finish of 13.9 over that span which if he comes close to finishing there, it will be a big time points day from a guy in the top of the mid-tier on both sites.
Jimmie Johnson
DK: $8,900 FD: $9,100
JJ is a three-time winner at the track in his career but he doesn’t have one in his last 10 races here and in fact has just one top-five and four top-10s in that span with 50 laps led and 28 fastest laps. It’s worse if you look at the last four too. So why is he on the list? Failed inspection. His practice speeds in the mid-teens and a solid long-run showing combined with a P35 starting spot makes him an intriguing GPP option for Sunday. There are some improvements coming for the 48-team and with how his teammates ran at times in practice there are notes to be gotten from them too. HIs salary is a bit high on DK but reasonable on FD, though I still like him on either site.
Kurt Busch
DK: $8,700 FD: $10,300
Kurt hasn’t finished outside the top-10 in both races at Pocono in a season since 2012 when he only ran one race. He finished 19th here in June but will start in the top-10 this week and carries consistent speed from the practices both in short and long runs. He is also the only SHR car not to have to move to the back of the field after inspection for what it’s worth. Kurt will start seventh which is where he ran much of practice but with a few questionable cars speed-wise in front of him, he could move up early and maybe even lead a few laps. Busch is a low-tier cash option and better for GPP formats.
Ryan Blaney
DK: $8,500 FD: $10,700
Blaney once again showed good speed this week as he finished second in the average lap speeds in the first session, though still 2 mph slower than Harvick. He ran P3 and P18 in the practices respectively before qualifying 18th, though he will start P33 after he too failed the inspection. That kind of speed potential, and a win here in the last four along with another top-10 gives him the combo of speed and history we look for. Blaney is a cash or GPP play this week given the starting spot, but he will likely be highly-owned in DK because of his lower salary compared to others in the back.
Chase Elliott
DK: $8,400 FD: $9,500
If you want consistency from a driver here, he is perhaps the second most consistent behind Keselowski as he has four top-10s in five career races at the track at the Cup level, with the only blemish coming with a P33 in this race two years ago. He also showed consistency at practice by running P10 in the single-lap speeds in both sessions on Saturday, running P9 in overall lap average in the first practice and qualifying P11, before shifting up to P6 to start the race. Like Kurt and Brad he should stick in the top-10 but may not lead many laps and so you are buying a top-10 finish as a solid addition to the lineup in either format.
Aric Almirola
DK: $8,200 FD: $9,700
Almirola looked rejuvenated last week after a third place finish and having a shot to win late had the restart gone a bit differently. That P3 was his first top-five of the season. This week that momentum has continued as he ran P4 in single-lap speeds and P8 in 10-lap average in the Happy Hour session on Saturday before being moved to the back of the pack in 34th after inspection issues. Like Blaney, he possesses big-time position upside and could potentially make it back to the top-10 but surely top-15.
Erik Jones
DK: $8,100 FD: $9,300
Jones has a top-five and two top-10s in three Cup races here with 24 laps led and 22 fastest laps. This week he has flashed that speed that he’s had here in the past by finishing P2 in the first practice and running the fourth-best average lap speed across that first session. Saturday evening he qualified P8 before jumping up to P3 after others were moved. He will have two other teammates on the front row which could make the start of the race interesting to see who jumps to the front. Jones, if the speed from the first practice is there, has a car that could stick up in that spot for a while. At a mid-tier price on both sites, it could be hard to pass up Jones as a guy who could get you some laps led.
Daniel Suarez
DK: $7,800 FD: $8,500
Since Paul Menard took the pole in Chicago, the pole sitter hasn’t cost this little on either site. However he wasn’t the pole sitter when qualifying first ended as Kevin Harvick was but with Busch and Harvick losing their times, Suarez moves up. He has shown decent speed at practice with a P8 in the first practice. That being said his long-run speed is unknown really as he never run 10-consecutive laps in either session. Suarez has one top-10 and two top-15s in his three races here but has just one lap led and five fastest laps. He could manage to hold the lead for a bit if his teammates next to him and behind him don’t shoot out of the gate but he is strictly a GPP-only play this week, though at a nice reduced price tag.
Austin Dillon
DK: $7,100 FD: $7,300
Dillon might just be my favorite play of the week this week, or at worst 1B next to Bowyer. The 3-car ran P14 and P12 in single-lap speeds in practice and turned in a P4 10-lap average in the final practice, just .3 mph behind second-place Denny Hamlin. That would have been intriguing enough, but then he also failed inspection so he starts P37 and his value shoots up even more. Add in that he has three top-15s in the last four and that adds more intrigue. At his price and what he has going for him, he should be easy to fit into a lineup in both formats on both sites.
William Byron
DK: $6,600 FD: $7,400
Byron surprised a lot of people by going out and running the sixth quickest lap in the first session but then he backed it up by running a faster lap in the second round of qualifying than Kevin Harvick and wound up qualifying sixth. Originally that is. Now he’s 38th after an inspection issue but has the speed to move up. The one Cup series race he’s run he finished P18 and his lone Xfinity race saw a 12th place finish, and he has a win from the pole in the Camping World Truck Series here. At a near bargain price on DraftKings and a decent value on FanDuel he is an intriguing budget-saving play.
Kasey Kahne
DK: $6,400 FD: $7,100
Kahne suffered the same fate as 12 others and will be in the back of the field, 40th to be exact, to start the race. In the last four races here he has two top-15s and with running P11 in the final practice the speed could show up for a low-20s finish. There is literally nothing to lose in PD points since Kahne is already at the back of the field and thus he makes a great budget-saving choice in any lineup.
Bubba Wallace
DK: $6,100 FD: $6,500
Wallace run P20 and P28 in practice and will start P39 on Sunday after shifting to the back. In his only Cup series race here he finished P32 but in the two Xfintiy races he has, there’s an 11th and 16th place finish and the latter came after starting P40. He is near the bottom of the salary lists on both sites but works as a very effective budget option. As a side note I do have Chris Buescher in one of my optimals this week at $5,900 on DK. He has a win in the last four and will start P12. He works as a cheap GPP play for a guy who said after qualifying, barely out of P24 originally (by .0007 seconds) that there is more speed on the car.