Quaker State 400 Playbook

Kentucky Speedway

Sparta Kentucky is the host town for this week’s race, the Quaker State 400. Kentucky Speedway is a 1.5-mile track that is new to the MENCS schedule, having just been added in the 2011 season for a once a year stop. Following the 2016 race, the track went through a repave and redesign, since it was already open in the 2000 season for other levels of racing. During the redesign they changed the first half of the track in both width and banking to make it different than the second half of the track.

Most think that 1.5-mile tracks are all the same and therefore are cookie cutter, however that could be further from the truth. This track is considered one of the toughest on the schedule and specifically Turn 3 which is considered to be the toughest to manage on the entire calendar. Coming off the 17-degree banking in turns 1 & 2, the backstretch flattens out before going into the 14-degree banking of turns 3 & 4, though that banking is misleading because it doesn’t really start until the middle of the turn and makes the entrance very flat, especially at those speeds. The other interesting part of the track is the shallow slopping turns and tri-oval front stretch create relatively short straightaways on the track for a “standard” 1.5-mile layout.

In the seven races held here at the Cup level, there have been four different drivers to win at the track, but one driver has won three times and four drivers have really dominated in laps led of late. It is typically a single-groove track most of the time and if you don’t hit your braking marks and throttle marks you can find yourself out of the groove and potentially losing spots in a hurry. Six of the seven winners here have started in the top-10 and four of the seven have started in one of the top two spots in the grid. The only one outside of the top-10 to win was Matt Kenseth in 2013 from P16 to start. Passing can be hard here without really effective second or third grooves to the surface so starting position is important, though there have been a reasonably high amount of cautions at the track with four of the seven races having nine or more during the race, including the last three races.

 

Playbook

Kevin Harvick

DK: $11,600  FD: $12,500

Harvick is back atop the salary list this week on DK and on FD but neither price tag is prohibitive. Harvick has been consistent here with four top-10s in the last four races, the only driver in the field to pull that off and his average driver rating of 114.3 is second in the field. In fact his low rating of 104.6 is the second best low rating only behind Kyle Busch’s 108. The 4-car has run 128 laps in front of the pack with 60 fastest laps and his 8.3 average finish is the second best in the field. Harvick starts P3 Saturday night and has had a solidly fast car this week, just like weeks past and he should be used in any lineup format.

Martin Truex Jr.

DK: $11,200  FD: $12,500

Truex won this race a year ago and had a 15-second lead late in the race until a late race restart was needed to secure the win. He has two top-10s, 198 laps led, 154 fastest laps, and an average driver rating 106.2 in the last four races. Truex has four top-10s in the seven races at Kentucky and seven top-20s. Truex is on the pole for Saturday’s race and has had solid speed this week but not top flight and there is a bit of a risk as the pole-sitter. Now the history of the track shows it’s possible for a driver to win from the pole but the standard thinking still applies in that he’s really more of a GPP play this week.

Kyle Busch

DK: $11,000  FD: $12,500

Busch has been one of the best drivers on this track of late and overall with a win, three top-fives, three top-10s, 306 laps led, and 164 fastest laps in the last four races and two wins, five top-fives, six top-10s, 549 laps led, and 268 fastest laps. The 18-car has run fourth and third in single lap speeds at practice and has been among the fastest cars in 10-lap averages and in the first practice he ran 30 laps total but only lost .051 mph as compared to his 10-lap average. Starting P5 but having considerable speed and a great history here means he’s a safe bet across all lineups this week.

Kyle Larson

DK: $10,100  FD: $11,500

Larson might be a bit higher-priced than you might think for his history here at Kentucky. There is just one top-five and two top-20s in the last four races with zero laps led and 27 fastest laps and that’s his total history here. He did drive from 40th to second in last year’s race and this year he has shown solid speed when looking at long-run average speeds across the whole session or 10 laps. Larson will roll off the line in 18th to start the race but should have the speed and wherewithal to move into the top-10. His price tag and history keep him as a GPP play.

Brad Keselowski

DK: $9,800  FD: $10,700

Wow is this a cheap price tag for a guy with the history he has here. Keselowski has two wins, three top-fives, three top-10s, 336 laps led, and 194 fastest laps in the last four races, and three wins, five top-10s, 483 laps led, and 266 fastest laps overall at Kentucky. The three wins have all come in even years at the track (2012, 2014, 2016) and the only real blemish on his record here was a 39th place finish last year when he crashed out a quarter of the way through the race. Keselowski has looked good at practice with top-five 10-lap average in the happy hour session and a top-five lap average overall in the first session. He starts P4 and with his history and ability to run up front a lot, he should be a cash game play.

Clint Bowyer

DK: $9,600  FD: $11,000

This hasn’t been Bowyer’s best track in the past but things seem to be different this year with his renewed energy and speed at Stewart-Has Racing. He only has two finishes better than P15 here (2013 and 2017) and three have been 23rd or worst. At practice this week however he has shown top-10 long-run speed and qualified P8 to start the race. At this price point on both sites it’s more based on his season stats to this point rather than his history here, but he remains in play given his season and current week’s sped but only as a GPP option.

Denny Hamlin

DK: $9,500  FD: $10,400

Denny has two top-fives and two top-10s in the last four races at the track and in seven overall he has three top-fives, three top-10s, and five top-15s with 76 laps led and 60 fastest laps. At practice this week he has shown the 16th and 20th best single lap speeds but the best 10-lap average in the final practice. The single lap speeds might not sound great, but he starts P36 this week due to a qualifying issue and so he provides a lot of position differential upside even if he doesn’t crack the top-10 by races end. At a mid-tier price point on both sites, his upside is too hard to pass on.

Joey Logano

DK: $9,300  FD: $10,600

One top-five, three top-10s, 67 laps led, and 44 fastest laps are his record here in the last four with very similar totals for the seven races at Kentucky total. This week he will start 19th but has ran top-10 in the average lap speeds in both practice and 12th in 10-lap average in the final practice. If Joey can translate his practice speed to the race, he should be in good shape to finish near the top-10 for a solid points day yet again.

Chase Elliott

DK: $8,700  FD: $10,200

Chase has run two races in the Cup series at Kentucky finishing in the top-five once and 31st in his first try. In Xfinity though he has four races here and has two top-fives, and a finish no worse than 13th which are all pretty solid. He didn’t show what kind of long-run speed he has this week at practice but did run the 10th fastest single lap in the final practice before qualifying 16th for the race. Given his combined history at the track and the flash of speed he’s shown this week he works in GPP lineups and is a low-tier cash play option.

Ryan Blaney

DK: $8,500  FD: $10,000

Blaney has been the fastest car on the track pretty much all weekend finishing second in both practices, but getting beaten in both by mock qualifying runs, having the best lap average in the first practice and the second-best 10-lap average in the final practice. He’s also led the most laps this year of any driver without a win, and third-most overall, at 463. His Cup series results at Kentucky have been less than stellar with one top-10 in two races and finishing 35th in the first race. However this has been his best track at the Xfinity level with two wins, five top-fives, seven top-10s, and 239 laps led in eight races. His mid-tier price on both sites and the speed he’s shown while qualifying P7 put him squarely into cash lineups.

Erik Jones

DK: $8,300  FD: $9,700

Jones finished sixth here last year, in his only race at Kentucky in the Cup series, after starting P14 which immediately gives him proven PD potential. In three Xfinity races he has two top-fives and 180 laps led with one DNF. Jones led final practice, ran 8th in first practice, and put together the fourth-best 10-lap average in the first practice/. He qualified on the outside pole (P2) for the race which should give him a shot to lead some laps, though Martin Truex Jr. is pretty hard to beat off the line generally (though he did beat him last week). Jones is coming off his first win in the Cup series and should be in the conversation for cash lineups and GPPs this weekend. 

Kurt Busch

DK: $8,100  FD: $10,100

Kurt has a top-five, two top-10s, and three top-15s in the last four races here plus has one top-five, four top-10s, five top-15s, 67 laps led (10 in the last four), and 51 fastest laps overall here. He has shown nice long-run speed funning fifth and 11th in the two 10-lap averages and qualifying ninth. All told Kurt should be able to stick near or in the top-10 for a lot of the race but a top-10 finish might be all you get from him in this spot but that’s still good for a 40-50 point day.

Ryan Newman

DK: $7,400  FD: $7,700

An average finish of 12th, two top-fives, two top-10s, two laps led and 11 fastest laps are what the under-the-radar driver of the 31-car has done in the last four races here. In the last seven, he’s got three top-fives, three top-10s, four top-15s and nearly the same bonus point category totals. In the first practice he ran the ninth-fastest average laps over all the laps he ran in the session and the 10th-fastest 10-lap average in the final session. He qualified P10 for the race and could fall a bit but a top-15 finish out of a low-mid-tier guy isn’t a terrible lineup option.

Matt Kenseth

DK: $6,900  FD: $7,900

Kenseth has returned to the 6-car this week after a few weeks of Trevor Bayne in it. The last four trips here as a full-time driver show Kenseth with two top-fives, three top-10s and an average driver rating of 104.1 (fifth best in the field). Overall he has a win, three top-fives, six top-10s, 40 laps led, and 96 fastest laps in the seven races. Kenseth hasn’t really shown the long-run speed at practice, not running 10-consecutive laps at either session. He did run inside the top-20 at practice and qualified 17th for the race which is encouraging. Given his solid history here and the decent speed he’s shown, Kenseth is one of my sleepers this week but mainly for GPP formats given how out of it the 6-car has generally been this year.

Bubba Wallace

DK: $6,000  FD: $7,500

Bubba ran here last year and finished 11th after starting 17th. That fits with his trend from Xfinity races at Kentucky where in four races he had four top-10s and a top-five with 13 laps led. The 43-car ran 18th in the first practice and sixth in the second with the 8th best 10-lap average in the first session too. Starting P25 makes him a big time candidate to move up in the field and with a history of doing just that across two different series, he’s a cash game budget-play and a GPP budget-play.

David Ragan

DK: $5,800  FD: $6,000

Ragan’s +5.7 PD in the last four races is one of the best in the field and has led him to one top-20 finish in that span. In the seven races he’s run here there’s an 8th place finish in the first one and then several in the low-20s in addition to the 18th place in 2015. Ragan has cropped up near the front of the pack at times this year and this won’t be one of those weeks but starting P24 puts him in striking distance of a top-20 which is a nice bonus at this price point on both sites.

Ty Dillon

DK: $5,600  FD: $5,500

Dillon has finished P25 and P33 in his two Cup races here after starting P30 and P27 in those runs. His Xfinity career at the track has seen him post a top-five, two top-10s, and 57 laps led in four races at the track. This week he qualified P28 but ran faster than that at both practices, just outside the top-20 in the final one. A budget-play with PD upside is what he amounts to this week across the board.