For the first time since the first race of the season, we are back at Daytona International Speedway. This time it’s for the Coke Zero 400 on Saturday night. Just like the Daytona 500, this is a restrictor plate race too which means pack racing, pack racing, pack racing. With no car being able to fully pull away from anyone else and run off with a lead, two-by-two packs are the sight of the day as are big crashes. Without fail there are big crashes every plate race and generally more than one making it more important than at other races that you study where the drivers are starting from.

Cars in the middle of the pack are typically to be avoided since the middle is generally speaking where most of the crashes originate, though just inside the top-10 also has that occur too. Looking over the track breakdown data, you will see a lot of big swings in position differentials this week because of the crash phenomenon we’ve discussed where the guys that start in the back of the pack are more likely to be able to avoid the big ones.

Laps led and fastest laps are just not that important this week given that in the last four July races, only one driver has more than 40 laps led and since 2005 the most fastest laps total for all races combined is 108. Some guys get that in a single race at other places. Some that drop-off in the dominator points is due to the fact there is just 160 laps run in the race, but a lot of it has to do with the lack of breakaway speed in the cars at these tracks.

In eight of the last 10 July races at Daytona, the winner has come from a top-10 starting position in the grid with the other two coming from P15 and P42. Three of those eight winners have been the pole sitter with the last occurrence of that being in 2015 when Dale Earnhardt Jr. won after starting P1. As always though, the pole sitter should be played in a GPP lineup since there is no position upside that they offer. In all 10 of those races, dating back to July of 2008, there were at least five incident cautions and five of the 10 have had at least eight incident cautions with last year’s race having the most with 14 total cautions for 51 laps.

Most weeks I will say to leave between $500 and $2,000 on the board in salary for the best lineups but this week that number should be much higher. Somewhere between $5,000 to $10,000 is ok to leave behind because usually with the flow of the race the cheapest guys move up through the field and put up the most points. Just look at the average DK points for the last two July races and you’ll see that five of the top-seven average totals are guys like Brendan Gaughan, Michael McDowell, David Ragan, Corey LaJoie, and Ty Dillon. Of course this all depends on where they qualify, but usually those types of guys are in the back of the field to start. A good strategy to go with is to pick one guy from the top-10 that you really like the upside of and then fill out the rest of the roster with guys from 20 on back and preferably 25 and back.

 

Playbook

Brad Keselowski

DK: $11,000  FD: $12,200

Keselowski is known as the best restrictor plate racer in the Cup series at this point with four wins in the last 20 plate races overall. However he has had some troubles here at Daytona recently. The 2-car landed in victory lane in this race in 2016 but aside from that there’s only one other top-20 finish in the last four July races and overall in the last 10 races at Daytona, he’s got just the one win and two top-fives and four top-20s. That being said he does have 150 laps led in the last four July races, and 166 in the last 10 overall, which the first number is the most by far. There is a reason that he is the most expensive driver on both sites this week, but qualifying P3 and having the struggles here of late make him a sketchy cash play but playing him in a GPP makes sense.

Joey Logano

DK: $10,700  FD: $11,800

The Penske teammate of Keselowski hasn’t been too shabby at plate tracks either with four wins in the last 20 as well, including winning at Talladega earlier this year to end a yearlong winless drought. Again however, his struggles have occurred at Daytona with just one top-five and two top-20s here in the last four July races and an average finish of 19.5. He does have the most fastest laps in that span with 21. He has shown nice speed in practice for what it’s worth and will start P11 giving him some PD upside if he can find the form he had at Talladega and works for a GPP lineup.

Denny Hamlin

DK: $10,300  FD: $11,500

Hamlin has a very nice position differential in the last four races with a mark of +12.3 in that time to go along with a top-five, two top-10s and 33 laps led. His top-15 rate of 72% is the highest among drivers with more than two races run here in the field and his 89.3 average driver rating in that span is the second-highest in the field just a tick behind Kurt Busch. With him starting P17 there is nice upside here to go with for either lineup format and the salary isn’t a killer on either site.

Chase Elliott

DK: $9,800  FD: $10,200

Chase is the pole sitter for this race, his fourth career pole in the Cup series with all four coming at either Talladega or Daytona. While he is starting on the pole on Saturday night, his history here suggests he won’t stay there for long. His average finish of P27 in the July races he’s run isn’t far off from his 27.6 average overall here and his four laps led all came in last July’s race. So while he is on the pole and that boosts his value a bit for the potential of laps led and a third of the last nine winners have started in that spot, he’s still iffy and remains a GPP-only play.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

DK: $9,000  FD: $10,000

Stenhouse won two races last year, both came at restrictor plate tracks including this exact race. He does have two top-fives, two top-10s, and three top-20s in the last four July races with 17 laps led and 16 fastest laps. The win and last year’s great showings at plate tracks are encouraging but the struggles that Roush Fenway has seen this year are discouraging. Stenhouse went out and qualified P6 for Saturday’s race which should keep him in the running all day long, however he showed iffy speed at practice so he remains a GPP play again this week.

Kurt Busch

DK: $8,800  FD: $10,800

Busch won the Daytona 500 to kick off the 2017 season but he’s been a good plate racer since before that. In this race the last four years, he’s got two top-fives, two top-10s, and 36 laps led in that span as well as posting the highest average driver rating at 89.4. If you go back to 2005, he has the second-highest average driver rating among those with 20 or more races at 90.1, just behind his brother Kyle who’s at 91.6 in the same span. He also has the highest pass differential in the field over that time, meaning he is quite proficient at passing people at restrictor plate tracks. If you roll all of that together and combined it with the fact that he’s starting P23 but had the fourth-best 10-lap average in practice he has the tools and car to move up well inside the top-10. Busch is among my must play options this week no matter the format.

Aric Almirola

DK: $8,700  FD: $10,100

If we flash back to February you’ll remember it was Almirola in position to win the 500 on the backstretch of the final lap until the block on Austin Dillon back fired and he finished 10th. Since then he has rolled off top-10 finish after top-10 finish and had a career day last week in Chicago leading as many laps in that race as he had the past seasons combined. At Daytona, he did win this race in 2014 and has one other top-15 finish in the other two races he’s run (he missed this race last year with a broken back). He will start P26 on Saturday but ran the second fastest single lap in practice and the seventh best 10-lap average. With his consistency this season, he’s hard to pass up as a mid-tier option on both sites.

Clint Bowyer

DK: $8,300  FD: $10,400

It has been a resurgent year for Bowyer in 2018 with two wins and consistently high finishes and that brings us to his finishes here. He’s the only driver in the field with four top-10s in this race the last four years, and he actually has five-straight top-10s if you go back to 2013. That being said, there isn’t much in the way of laps led or fastest laps with seven and 10 respectively in the last four. Bowyer also has only a 45% top-15 rate which is interesting for a guy with an average finish of 7.5 when things are all said and done. The 14-car will roll off P9 but had the fastest car in practice and should be able to run near the front all day.

Erik Jones

DK: $8,100  FD: $8,500

Last year was the first year for Jones in the Cup series so total he only has three races at Daytona, but in his only try in July he finished P9 last year and managed to lead nine laps and a very nice +8 PD. The 500 is a different story with two finishes at 39th and 36th respectively. “That Jones Boy” as Ken Squires dubbed him last year is starting 29th but ran inside the top-10 at practice which is promising to repeat his finish here from a year ago. The salary is nice on both sites, especially on FD being in the lower mid-tier price point.

Austin Dillon

DK: $7,800  FD: $9,200

Dillon won the Daytona 500 in thrilling fashion to start the year this season but in the summer race here he has also comported himself well. A top-five, three top-10s, eight laps led, and 11 fastest laps make up his résumé here in July since 2014. Since that win in February however, his season has gone on without much fanfare and he’s had his struggles. He will start 10th on Saturday but he will need some luck on his side to stay up in contention throughout the race.

Alex Bowman

DK: $7,600  FD: $8,200

Bowman has two July starts under his belt in the Cup series at Daytona and has a top-15 and top-20 in those starts. He also has two Xfinity starts at Daytona with a top-five in those races as well. In the Cup series he has a remarkable position differential in those two races, but he won’t need that this week as he will start P2 on Saturday night after running about 20 spots slower than that in single lap speeds at practice. A ninth-best 10-lap average is a nice sign but there is more risk here than safety which means he’s a GPP play.

Paul Menard

DK: $7,400  FD: $9,000

Menard won his second career pole at Chicago last weekend and promptly went backwards in the field, but his trips to Daytona have been the opposite of that. A top-five, top-10, and three top-20s are his record here in the last four summers with nine fastest laps. The 21-car ran the 11th best time in single lap runs at practice before qualifying P30 for the race. Since 2011 (15 races) he has six top-10s in that span including three-straight in the last three races at Daytona. For this price, it’s a great upside bid to play Menard in any format.

Ryan Newman

DK: $7,100  FD: $7,700

Newman has a top-five, two top-10s, and three top-20s in the last four summer races at Daytona and a +6.7 PD mark as well. There are some interesting parts of his stat line though as he has just a nine percent top-15 rate and a 57.1 average rating in that same span, so he’s waiting for crashes to happen to sneak into the top-15 positions. This week he starts in seventh which will make some interested in getting a potential top-10 car for this price, but that could be hard for him to hold onto. He’s worth a shot in a GPP format if you want some differentiation in your lineup.

Daniel Suarez

DK: $6,900  FD: $8,000

Suarez went out and qualified 32nd after running the 20th best single lap and the eighth best 10-lap average at practice. His race here lat July saw him start 20th and finish 17th whereas the two Daytona 500s have seen him finish 29th and 37th respectively. He did lead 11 laps before finishing 17th last July too. With him starting that far back, there’s really no down side to playing him since he can’t far much further back in the field anyway, but there is a ton of upside if he can make it inside the top-20 again.

David Ragan

DK: $6,600  FD: $5,500

While he remains a budget-play again this week, there is major upside here with a top-10, two top-15s, three top-20s and 12 laps led in the last four races. A +7 PD is solid too as is a win in this race in 2011. He qualified P21, which is where he starts on average in that span, and if his average finish holds true a nice points day is in store from the 38-car on Saturday in either a cash or GPP lineup.

Chris Buescher

DK: $5,800  FD: $6,500

Buescher has routinely been a favorite cheap play of mine the last few years, and this week is no different as he has a top-10 finish in the last two July races at Daytona. Overall his finishes in five total races are 39th, 40th, 35th, 10th, and 5th so he’s clearly gotten better in the last two races. He starts 25th but ran considerably faster than that at practice and has shown he’s figured out how to make it through the field here which is an appetizing combo at this price on both sites.

Michael McDowell

DK: $5,700  FD: $6,200

McDowell has the best position differential in the field over the last three races at +22 per race. He starts an average of 29th and has three-straight top-10s including a top-five as well. In the Drivers to Watch section of the Track Breakdown I talked about how much I liked McDowell this week depending on where he qualified, well qualifying has changed things a bit. He will start P8 for the race and ran well at practice, but that kills his PD upside he usually brings and substitutes it with the hope that he can in fact stay in the top-10. He’s now a GPP play instead of a guaranteed cash play had he qualified like normal.

Matt DiBenedetto

DK: $5,400  FD: $6,000

DiBenedetto is another guy who has shown consistent PD potential here with a +11 mark in the last three races and a top-15 finish in that span. He is once again starting near the back of the pack and that makes him a good play for either lineup type and then bank the position points he will likely give you.

Corey LaJoie

DK: $4,900  FD: $5,000

Ordinarily I don’t dip this low into the salary list for the playbook, simply because these types of guys don’t offer much most weeks. However this is Daytona and things are different all across the board. He will start P38 on Saturday and that’s not far off his typical starting spot while finishing 11th in this race last year and 24th in last year’s Daytona 500. This year’s didn’t go well for him but at this price point and starting as far back as he is there is really zero risk involved in playing him. If he can once again miss the crashes and get into the top-20 by the end, that’s a big points day again, as is typical with him being that he’s in the top-five average DK points for the past few Daytona races.