Playbook for Overton's 400

Chicagoland Speedway

We’re back at a 1.5-mile track this week for the first time since Memorial Day weekend and the Coca-Cola 600. Chicagoland is the host for this race, the Overton’s 400, and it’s a slightly different time slot for it in the schedule, as Chicago is usually the first race of the Chase. A schedule change up moves this race to where it originally was when the track was first opened in 2001and stayed that way until 2011. Chicago is a pretty standard mile and half Tri-Oval layout with 18 degree banking in the turns and 11 degrees of tilt in the front stretch. With it being a 400 mile race, there will be 267 laps run in the race on Sunday afternoon.

The key things to pay attention to in this race is the racing surface itself, being that it is old, like 18 years old, and thus tire wear will play a big role in the race. There are also some tricky bumps in both Turn 1 and Turn 3 to navigate that can get the car loose exactly at the wrong time (when the car is fully loaded force-wise) and they can play havoc on the shocks and springs and tires. With the tire fall-off being similar to that of Atlanta’s famed surface, the drivers that can keep speeds going even when the tires are well into a run are the ones that will prevail. If there are cautions, which their aren’t typically many at this track, expect drivers to take four, sticker tires, every chance they get. It is also a multiple groove track, also like Atlanta and California are, which allows for a lot of passing capability during the race, and a peek a past winner will show off that point.

As mentioned in the Track Breakdown piece “In the 17 races that have been held at Chicagoland Speedway in its history, only one winner has started on the pole (Kyle Busch in 2008) and only two winners have started inside the top-five starting spots (the aforementioned Busch win and Martin Truex Jr. last year starting P3). Seven of the 17 have started P10 or better and a winner has come from P25 or worse five times including twice in the last four races. So it’s a fairly unpredictable track that allows for cars to move up through field via passing and pit strategy and with a relatively small amount of cautions happening long-run speed will rule the day.”

With all of that in mind lets look at the best plays for the week.

 

Playbook

**Four drivers failed post-qualifying inspection and have been moved to the back of the field. Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, and Chris Buescher will start in spots 36-39 and DraftKings and FanDuel will reflect that change. This will up the ownership of Truex and Hamlin and Johnson across the board but makes them great Position Differential points earners.***

Kevin Harvick

DK: $11,800  FD: $12,300

Harvick comes into Chicago as a driver who has been solid here but not great. His average starts is 5.3 with a finish of 17.5, two top-fives, two top-10s, and 148 laps led in the last four races. The 99 fastest laps are third most in that span as well but it is a little disappointing to see a driver of his ilk finishing in subpar positions in recent history there. Once again this week he has shown the speed that’s been the talk of the season to this point with the fastest 10-lap average in both practices and pretty good short run speed too. Also keep in mind that he dominates at Atlanta and this is a similar track in composition and layout to Atlanta.

Kyle Busch

DK: $11,400  FD: $11,900

Much like Harvick, Busch starts well (2.5) but finishes not as well (9.8) but leads a lot of laps in the process with a total of 273 in the last four races here, the most in the field. The 113 fastest laps are second-highest in that span but he is one of only five drivers with three or more top-10s in the last four and he hasn’t finished worse than 15th. In the last 10 races he has a win and six top-10s with 512 laps led. His speed this week has been in questions though based on a middling short run speed and 10-lap averages that aren’t where we’re accustomed to seeing him. At this price point and starting P18, there is some position differential upside there, but it could be hard for him to secure many, if any, dominator points.

Martin Truex Jr.

DK: $10,900  FD: $12,800

MTJ is the hottest driver this week after his second win in five races last week at Sonoma and now coming to a track that he’s owned in the last two years. Two win, two top-fives, two top-10s, and four top-15s with 148 laps led and 148 fastest laps are the tally in the last four races for the 78-car, with the two wins coming in the last two years. His 109.2 average driver rating is the best among drivers with three or more races here in the last four years, which is a solidly high mark. Overall Truex has been tough to beat at 1.5-mile tracks in the last two years and between here, Atlanta, Auto Club, and Homestead-Miami he has four wins, seven top-fives, and 11 top-10s in the last 20 combined races. The two sites have him priced much differently as he is nearly $1,000 less than Harvick on DK but he’s $500 more than Harvick on FD.

Kyle Larson

DK: $10,400  FD: $11,400

Larson was the pre-race favorite coming into the race with two top-fives and three top-10s in the last four races and 22 laps led and knowing how good he is at similar tracks like Miami and Auto Club. However he has shown questionable speed this week with short run and long-run speed that has been between P8 and P16 most of the week save for P3 in 10-lap average in the second practice. As noted in the practice notes from the final practice, Larson is having a brake issue but the team hopes their fix has taken care of it. He will start P20 so there is upside here for both GPP and cash lineups.

Brad Keselowski

DK: $10,000  FD: $11,100

An average finish of 5.0 in the last four puts him third in that stat and with a win, two top-fives, and four top-10s, those also put him high in the rankings. The four top-10s make him just one of three drivers to achieve that mark in the last four races. He also has 70 laps led and 60 fastest laps in that span too. In the last 10 races, no one has more wins or top-10s here with two and seven respectively with 152 laps led and 145 fastest laps. The 2-car has had solid long-run speed all week with good 10-lap averages and in the first practice his average speed across all laps was seventh best. The consistency here and the P8 starting spot add up to him being a nice option for both lineups.

Clint Bowyer

DK: $9,700  FD: $11,200

On a quick glance of his history here in the last four races, it isn’t spectacular with one top-15 and two top-20s in that span with no laps led and just six fastest laps, plus an average finish of 23.3 after starting 17.8. So why is he in the playbook this week? Because of the season he’s having and the speed he’s shown this week specifically. Bowyer ran the 14th fastest single lap in the first practice and the 10th fastest in the second session but his 10-lap averages in both ranked 3rd and 5th respectively and then he qualified P6. So which do you weight and how? His history has to count for something, but the roll he’s been on this year and the consistency he’s shown may outweigh the history a tad. For me he is a GPP-only play given that he doesn’t have a finish better than 13th in the last four here or better than 12th in three of the last four 1.5-mile races this year.

 

Joey Logano

DK: $9,500  FD: $10,800

If I asked you who has the second-best average finish this season in NASCAR, how many guesses would it take before you got to Logano? His 8.8 average finish this year is second to only Kyle Busch. At Chicagoland specifically, the 22-car has an average finish of 4.8 in the last trips to the Windy City, second in that stat, with two top-fives, and four top-10s, the second driver with four top-10s. Seeing a theme? Logano went out and qualified P14 but ran faster than that at each practice with a P9 in the first and P3 in the second with a P14 10-lap average in the second session. At this price point and his consistency, it’s hard to not look Logano’s way come Sunday in either format.

Denny Hamlin

DK: $9,300  FD: $10,600

His JGR teammate, Kyle Busch, has been outshining him all season, even in the Drivers To Watch section of the Track Breakdown, when I compared the two. However when you look at him separately, he’s been really good here with a win, two top-fives, and four top-10s in the last four with an average finish of 4.3 and 37 fastest laps. His average finish is the best in the field in that span and his six top-10s in the last 10 put him second in that category too. With a car that has been the fastest of the JGR Toyota’s this week, it’s hard to pass him up on either site as his salary puts him in the low end of the top tier.

Chase Elliott

DK: $8,500  FD: $10,600 

Perhaps the best Hendrick driver this season, Elliott comes to a track that he has good history at in his two tries. A P3 in his first effort and P2 last year are as good as it gets aside from Truex in that span. He also has 117 laps led in that time with 51 fastest laps and a 100% top-15 rate and sparkling 125.6 driver rating too. He flashed some speed at first practice with a P4 and posting the 10th best average speed across all laps run as well, however the second practice was a miss for him with a P23 finish before qualifying P3. That is where we expect to see the 9-car at Chicago and he should be able to stay there given the history of Hendrick at the track with a top-three finisher in 8-of-the-last-10 races here.

Kurt Busch

DK: $8,400  FD: $10,400

Busch has been under the radar all season and again this week, despite showing nice speed in each practice session on Saturday. The driver of the 41-Ford has a top-five, two top-10s, and three top-15s in the last four races plus 37 laps led and 55 fastest laps. That’s enough to rank him eighth best in the field overall this week based on that span. He ran P12 and P4 in the practices and had the second best 10-lap average in the first practice but then slipped to P20 in that stat in happy hour. Overall he is what his price suggests, a solid mid-tier option that should be able to hang around his starting spot of P5 all afternoon.

Ryan Blaney

DK: $8,300  FD: $10,500

YRB has only been in the Cup series the same amount of time as Chase Elliott, but he has put up some similar results here as well. One top-five, and two top-15s with a PD of +9.5 (one of the best in the field) is a pretty strong case for his abilities at this 1.5-mile oval. If that wasn’t enough the long-run speed he is showing this week is near chart topping with his P4 in the 10-lap average from the first practice coming in laps 15-24. He is starting P2 on the grid and has a shot to lead laps on Sunday which is all you can ask from someone starting that high. Mid-tier laps led are hard to beat from a salary perspective.

Jamie McMurray

DK: $8,100  FD: $9,100

Two top-10s and three top-15s are on the résumé from the last four races for Jamie Mac along with an average finish of 11.5. The real reason to play him is the speed this week. A P10 and P7 in single lap speeds at practice are good enough but his P5 and P2 10-lap averages just add to the package that McMurray is bringing to the track. He will start 15th which indicated he should have no problem moving up in the field for a possible top-five finish if all plays out well. A mid-tier price option on both sites with top-five upside and PD upside as well, is a great option for either lineup.

Daniel Suarez

DK: $7,500  FD: $8,200

I mentioned in the practice notes that Suarez may have been the slowest of the JGR cars this year so far, but at this track he has done well no matter how the rest of the season has gone. That being said, he has run well this week with very solid 10-lap average times (P7 and P16) and has been the second-fastest JGR car this week. In his one Cup race at the track he finished 12th after starting 13th, however in six Xfinity races at Chicago he has an average finish of 9.17 with three top-six finishes in that span. He starts P11 on Sunday and should stick inside the top-10 much of the day. He is a nice low mid-tier price option to have a solid points day.

Ryan Newman

DK: $7,300  FD: $7,600

Newman is a guy that doesn’t get paid attention to a lot, especially in the last few seasons but this week is race to pay attention to the 31-car. A top-five, top-10, two top-15s, and three top-20s is what he’s posted in the last four trips to the track. An average finish of 15.3 is respectable. Newman ran P6 in the first practice and P13 in the 10-lap average in happy hour before qualifying 19th on the grid. He hasn’t been the most consistent guy but when the time is right for playing him one must pounce on the chance, this week is certainly one of those times to slot him into one of your rosters, though GPP is still a better option.

Paul Menard

DK: $7,000  FD: $8,700 

In full disclosure here, I had Menard in the playbook before he won the pole on Saturday night because his history here is a very solid for a guy typically toward the bottom of the salary list. Menard has a top-15 and two top-20s in the last four with an average finish of 18.3 and his 1,067 laps completed out of a possible 1,071 is nice too. The downside is that he is on the pole and so his upside is very limited, especially here with only one winner from the pole in 17 races. If you want to play him in GPP formats you can, though be aware that his speed this week hasn’t been what you expect from a typical pole sitter with a best mark of P8 in 10-lap average but single lap speed isn’t great.

Kasey Kahne

DK: $6,900  FD: $7,900

One top-10 and two top-15s is his record here in the last four trips to the Windy City track and in the last 10 races, two top-fives, four top-10s, and eight top-15s bolster the package. At happy hour Kahne posted a lap much better than his starting spot would suggest at P19 when starting P28 in the grid. He also has shown top-10 long run speed in both practices which speaks to the upside he has starting near the back of the pack.  He can be played in cash or GPP lineups equally.

William Byron

DK: $6,400  FD: $7,300

Byron has never run here in the Cup series and only ran once in the Xfinity series (where he started P8 and a transmission issue caused a 33rd place finish). So why is he being written-up? The speed he showed this week. He ran a P6 10-lap average in happy hour practice and qualified P9 in essentially race trim since cars are impounded again this week. Byron maybe a youngster and not experienced really at all, but the promise is there for a strong showing for a cheap price.

Ty Dillon

DK: $5,600  FD: $6,500

There really isn’t much of note on his Cup series stats at Chicago but looking at the Xfinity stats shows he’s run no worse than 11th in six races with an average finish of 7.5 with six top-10s and two top-fives. His speed this week has been better than where he qualified, P24 and P13 compared to starting P29 which gives hope for running up into the field a decent amount. As a budget-play, Dillon offers nice PD potential at the tail end of the salary list.